This is in continuation of Part 1. (link)
The world is greeted with promising cure for Novel Coronavirus(2019-nCoV) aka Wuhan Virus using the plasma of recovered patients. I thought this piece of news is quite credible and provide hopes for the dying. There are already numerous promising solutions made but the death rate keeps climbing.
One key statistic is that the death rate outside Wuhan is like 0.1%. What this mean is that the "best cure" is simply to not overwhelm the medical facilities and therefore critical to nip the problem in the bud. However the mix of outbreak with propaganda or to be termed exactly Politics is Toxic. They ends badly. There is large similarity with Chernobyl ( There's a 2019 historical drama television miniseries produced by HBO and Sky UK) which may have speed up the downfall of Soviet Union.
Just a month before I don't' even know Wuhan is in Hubei. Is sad that thousands of people lives are lost due to possible political reason to delay the communications. Hope WHO do not go through this spiral of joining the political game and just focus on Health. Japan maybe in the brink to fall if WHO and Japan do not get their act together. The risk is Olympic may not happen. And this will be really bad.
As a reminder the blog articles are my learning experience and is on personal perspective and there could be error. I aren't financially trained and is based a lot of commonsense and risk mitigation which may not be effective 😊.
One key statistic is that the death rate outside Wuhan is like 0.1%. What this mean is that the "best cure" is simply to not overwhelm the medical facilities and therefore critical to nip the problem in the bud. However the mix of outbreak with propaganda or to be termed exactly Politics is Toxic. They ends badly. There is large similarity with Chernobyl ( There's a 2019 historical drama television miniseries produced by HBO and Sky UK) which may have speed up the downfall of Soviet Union.
Just a month before I don't' even know Wuhan is in Hubei. Is sad that thousands of people lives are lost due to possible political reason to delay the communications. Hope WHO do not go through this spiral of joining the political game and just focus on Health. Japan maybe in the brink to fall if WHO and Japan do not get their act together. The risk is Olympic may not happen. And this will be really bad.
As a reminder the blog articles are my learning experience and is on personal perspective and there could be error. I aren't financially trained and is based a lot of commonsense and risk mitigation which may not be effective 😊.
One of the powerful Reit in Singapore with a boost of recent DC acquisition in US. This is not nice story but real example of having a strong sponsor. With current stock price, further acquisition that is accretive is not hard. We could be seeing further growth. What's more this growth segment in US provides geographical diversification. I have a habit to do trading around my holdings ( usually partials ). This breaks when the market is in over zealous mode and I left with nothing to sell. At one point this year I took profit and end up with zero exposure which is oddward for a dividend player. Glad to have this stock building up again after more than 40% XIRR last year. Hopefully I have chance to further my exposure. MIT does has more alpha.
AIMS APAC REIT
Small but stable, AA Reit provides a nice niche in the SG Reit segment. The management has been able to continue to keep up with the dpu with continuous development. At near to 7% yield, one cannot have enough till capped by portfolio sizing. Being small also means the price is more volatile to news of the company. I am not supportive for one to have significant exposure even if the story is very good unless we have very high confidence. I am yet reach the level where I can sleep with it. Maybe I could if my net worth is doubled.
IREIT GLOBAL
Another counter of strong yield with exposure to Germany but Singapore dollar denominated. The minor risk for my assumption is the Euro earning. Other than that a large part of their properties are dependent on a single tenant. So this is sized appropriate into the portfolio as part of a group of diversified high yield Reits. Strongly suggest people who are interested to read their presentation report which gives good idea of their properties, tenants and financials. They have been reporting about 5% reduction in DPU past quarter. So I aren't surprise this quarter report the same too. The price continues to creep upwards and is now slightly more than 6% yield. That's more than 2 weeks of daily green to arrive at this point. The current market environment would be able to support this pricing since yield is relative with risk in context but ex-dividend soon.
ACCORDIA GOLF TR
This is a high yield trust. The income is less stable. Back on this portfolio and currently awaiting for it being acquired in which the timing now looks bad. Similar to above two, sized appropriately to the level it will not damage the portfolio badly if there are bad surprises. There is no distribution this quarter as is on half yearly basis. One of the concern I have is that Wuhan Virus containment doesn't look well manage in Japan. This may have an impact on Tokyo Olympic if they do not get their act together. In all my counter I would consider this position riskiest. If one is to look at the radar chart, at 5% point is a little too much. A better allocation will be around 3.5% range. Yes, I am greedy on this one and usually quite bad luck on this one too.
CAPITALAND MALL TR
This Reit continues to be a key workhorse to provide sustainable dividends. It has emerged top position in the portfolio. In last SARs, CMT did well 18 years ago so I think it won't fall too far bad this time. The oil price is quite tamed and this will help manage their cost structure. As long SG is thriving, their malls will play a key role in our local life and grow. Quite hard to imagine most of the locals not to have a lifestyle around malls in tiny Singapore.
On relative valuation wise, a close comparison is FCT which is valued much higher compared to CMT. So there is good opportunity for price appreciation if too large a gap is driven. Having say that I have not been touching FCT for long time .... ... ... .
CMT at almost 5% yield, with stable DPU, chances are this stock can and will provided the much needed cash flow and this kind of support my property loan ie. 2.6%. So this is still quite attractive but I wouldn't want to solely just depend on CMT. This also support my decision not to pay down my loan proactively and why tapping the maximum amount of home loan even when one could pay if we want to. To get the maths right, we have to actively utilize the cash for relatively safe investment.
SPH REIT
Not much luck on this one. After taking pain to build this up to one of key allocated position, I have to quickly release most of it back to the market. One of the key reason not to hold is due to it is already Ex-div last Dec. ( due to acquisition ). Weakness of AUD is a concern. The Australia economy is not in good shape and probably for years to come. With the slightly higher yield than CMT and much fewer properties, is not hard to pick this one out for needed cash in warchest. The left over is more for some diversification into Australia asset and income.
For the past few trading days the portfolio seen MIT, Vicom and iReit spiking up while Ascendas and CMT holding well. The counter balance between counters is an Art. Rotating around the holding is Fun. However the baseline is still around the core concept of dividend investing. There is still much to be learned. With that I end my take on the portfolio.
Hope you have fun in yours !
Cheers
Cory
2020-0218
Hi,
ReplyDeleteAnty lesson learnt from your panic selling and subsquently panic buying? I'm surprised that you didnt buy back your previous holding. All the best!
Market can be irrational and much harder to anticipate. For example Ascendas in SARs time drops quite significant but CMT did well. In 2019-nCoV case, they switch positions ! If we are to redo everything again, I will probably still do the same based on available information. We aren't expert in 2019-nCoV so staying out and based on available we do our due diligence.
DeleteSome of my position would have earned more, some would be less. So in this aspect is neutral. However what happen is that I managed to take about 20% off the table as cash which is important. Increase to 25% on fixed income. 35% safe position. That's mean 20% riskier. Bought back some DBS, NLT and MIT.
And expanded CMT.
DeleteReits dropped quite badly today? Did you sell or buy? Any advice for novice? thanks
ReplyDeleteNot to be taken as advise but to share what I did. To start off due to the rather massive sales earlier I am in significant net cash position. Only core positions that I hold as mentioned in my article. So when the sales began due to Korea and Italy situations, I sold off MIT totally when the price went up instead. I am lucky thanks to birth of number 2. The reason is quite simple because why USA won't be hit which MIT has DCs overthere and is just matter of time. After the sales, MIT price kind of crashed but still above year opening price. I then bought some back at much later of the day. Reason is simple because MIT is core that doesn't mean I won't take opportunity to do quick trade. I also expanded ascendas at good prices. Read my arlier article on ascendas stake which was reduced significantly prior to the crash. So I have 85% Bullets left of my cash for future purchases across months as I am not nCov-19 expert.
Delete