There are many times I am asked to take profits. Reason being people has the conception that cash is the safe harbor. A rest point before we venture out again. This mindset is not wrong when one trades for a living especially speculative short trade.
Post today is I hope to share how Cory thinks from another perspective. Often we hear people make so and so $Xx,xxx but then lose it all or worst in negative. The angle I do is to treat profit earned as part of base capital in every new year.
Let's say I started with $500k in 2018 and ended with $580k. That's 80k profits. In Year 2019, I will treat $580k as my new cost structure (or base capital) thereby zero-out my profit. Why we do this is to overcome the human weakness of "Feeling Rich" and lose them back to the market.
When we do this long enough, for some reason cutting loss is more a mechanic nature rather than a pain-in-the-heart. Interestingly, we could also sell a stock at say $1.50 near end of Year 2018 but buy them back in Jan 2019 at much higher price sold earlier. Is like hyped on a Jan market trend trading mechanism. Fortunately, I do't this often ! Cory aren't crazy but it does happen sometimes .... ... ...
Since Cory Portfolio is ignited on every first day of new year, safe harbor has no meaning from previous year trades. Therefore, Cory result is often Year-to-date (YTD) meaning is the measure of Profit or Loss from 1st Jan base to current date figure. This keeps Cory on toes and not feeling rich. Historical past year trades are just for "Glorification" use only, nothing else.
If Cory feels the market going to crash like 2008 GFC, he can relieve all his counters as he wanted but that's not because he has make enough profits. There is no relevancy between getting out-of-market and having make or loss enough.
Is all in our minds.
Cory
2019-1008
Oct 9, 2019
Oct 6, 2019
Cory Diary : Reits Comparison
Often we have a list of Reits in our radar. The more savvy one may probably just choose one. To mitigate risk, I tend to have them with different proportions. The question will be how do we apportion them.
Here today I have 4 of them to think about. Namely, Ascendas Reit, Mapletree Ind Trust, Frasers Com Trust & iReit Global. As usual my investment decision is agar-agar. They are all quality reits in my opinion.
There are few key notes in my head. Singapore is near recession whereas US market are still relatively strong. AR has weakening AUD earning - Australia exposure. MINT recently has rather good bargain on US Data Centers in-addition to what they have. Stronger USD helps too. Ascendas has future earning from Grab building and recent Australia acquisition. AR is largest locally. MINT may have impact from HP Inc downsizing concern as this maybe a risk depending on their BTS lease term with the company.
Overall, I would think MINT yield should be lower (correction) due to better quality earning. And I will be ok to pay more than A Reit. This thinking could change with time though.
How about Frasers Com Trust ? There is some concern in the market whether they can maintain their DPU. However their major was resolved with space able to be rented out to google. There is still risks from Microsoft. Overall the risk is reflected in their higher 6% yield compared to AR and MINT.
With recent blogged iReit in the limelight by famous blogger, the market was moved by it due to low trading volume. There are also other bloggers who are not so positive about it. Nevertheless at 7.6% yield there is some market concern. Is pure Germany play and rather concentrated in a tenant. I have 2.5% allocation currently.
Maybe ratio of AR 12% : MINT 9% : FCOT 6% : iReit Global 3%. This will stagger my yields and risks in REITs.
Make sense ? Now wait for some correction to drive towards the percentage. Those that exceed probably I will put a hold instead.
Cory
2019-1006
2019-1006
Oct 5, 2019
Cory Diary: Importance of staying invested 2019-1005
Importance of staying invested to beat inflation is a psychological battle after GFC 2008. People tend to wait for the next major crisis or at least a correction. This is especially so when we have many headline news or risks and worries.
While the concept is possible in theory, the timing or execution is not easy reason being because of the opportunity costs. Reits yield over the years have climbs down from double digits to 5% range. However, the cumulative capital gains and dividends are of considerable size. (See table)
The Gratification comes in when we go beyond inflation beating to actually profiteering from our investment. And to see our portfolio continuously growing in good years while mute in down. Overall, we just need to see more ups than downs to win the game.
Recession Fear as we are on our 11 years of economic growths since Year 2008. 2020 could be mute or small increase in profitability. What I could do is to continuously apportion my portfolio to more "Fixed returns" by percentage while in absolute number can still be larger in non-fixed investment. This could protect my down side while continuously to have larger growth in portfolio size through re-balancing. That's the strategy.
Cory
2019-1005
Oct 3, 2019
Cory Diary : Expenses 2019
This year is quite special .... I have a lot of one-off items ...for example baby expenses. However we know that to bring a baby to adult, there is probably a string of one-off expenses over many years. Maybe "amortization" probably is a fairer way to deal with it. We need to recognize it as regular cost of business !
There are many other one-off items such as Renovation, Alter, Cremation Niches, Medical Surgery, Hospitalization, Medical checks, Confinement ... this are debatable. Nevertheless they can be big ticket items or summation in total. Ignore them at your perils.
And we have the regular ones like Taxes, Nanny, Parent Allowances, Installments, Holidays, Baby Misc ...
If one plans to retire, make sure we plan them into our annual expense plan with good buffers. Don't simply jump into FIRE through hard core saving. You will be surprise like I do this year on how bad it can goes on how expenses blow up. After totaling up major items that i could find, the expenses YTD is S$117 K... ( ouch ).
The fortunate thing is that my Liquid asset and Net worth are still trending up. The first is due to Stock Market and Regular Job, and the later with added Property Valuation Growth (Cashless by the way).
Anyone like to retire now ?
Cheers
Cory
2019-1003
There are many other one-off items such as Renovation, Alter, Cremation Niches, Medical Surgery, Hospitalization, Medical checks, Confinement ... this are debatable. Nevertheless they can be big ticket items or summation in total. Ignore them at your perils.
And we have the regular ones like Taxes, Nanny, Parent Allowances, Installments, Holidays, Baby Misc ...
If one plans to retire, make sure we plan them into our annual expense plan with good buffers. Don't simply jump into FIRE through hard core saving. You will be surprise like I do this year on how bad it can goes on how expenses blow up. After totaling up major items that i could find, the expenses YTD is S$117 K... ( ouch ).
The fortunate thing is that my Liquid asset and Net worth are still trending up. The first is due to Stock Market and Regular Job, and the later with added Property Valuation Growth (Cashless by the way).
Anyone like to retire now ?
Cheers
Cory
2019-1003
Labels:
Financial Planning,
Investment,
Retirement
Oct 1, 2019
Cory Diary : Portfolio Sector Allocation Report
Has been away for a week long family holiday .... ( Fretting ). Expenses are like shooting star right now. Original plan today is to write something on expenses but 10/1 comes up and probably is more exciting to update how is Cory Portfolio so far first.
Cory Top 7 Equity Investments
1. STI ETF
2. Ascendas Reit
3. Frasers Bond
4. Frasers Com Trust
5. Ascendas-h Trust
6. VICOM
7. Mapletree Ind Trust
Cory Portfolio has Bond/Pref to calm his porcelain heart. He can't take much stress. The index do their numbers too which totaled with Fixed investment hits 33.7% allocation. To calm further, Cory has SSB outside Equity Portfolio which is use to support Housing Loan (Emergency). This damped investment returns but is done deliberately.
Telco allocation is actually Netlink BNB Trust. The position is relatively small after taking profits. Telco stocks are struggling a little so is better to avoid for now. Of similar size is the Banks which provide a little upside volatility.
Particularly excited about Ascendas Reit because as previously reported scope more on higher low. Managed to buy some MINT back as well though is net negative. VICOM has been a cool winner considering Cory is late in the game on this one. Is better to be late than never. Key is to size our position appropriately so that we can average down nicely or enjoy the ride up.
Cheers
Cory
2019-1001
Labels:
Performance,
Portfolio,
Sector Distribution
Sep 20, 2019
Cory Diary : Trades - 2019-0920
First time staying late like 30 mins (2.30 am) to watch FED Announcement this week and learned something called a dot plot. Find it interesting but don't call me a dinosaur as I learned that it is getting less relevant today.
The market is very big with different interest groups. Personally to me is the required right step to meet broader market expectation and do a cut though how market perceive them later is another matter. A hike would certainly put the market to a major downward spin. A neutral will be bad on trade front as everyone is cutting rates. This lead to a few trades thereafter.
One of them is Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). With the increasing Banks allocation in SGX market, I see not much value now to have WFC with much lower dividends. One counter reduced. Glad to receive in strong USD term. However, net-net is neutral so is a year plus of opportunity cost though I wouldn't say is wasted as is a hedge against my local dividend counters.
This week we have good news on DC acquisitions by Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT). The terms look good and rewarded with almost 7% up. That's a far cry from Keppel DC Reit acquisition though but I am glad to get 2nd prize as MINT is one of my key position. Did some trades to take some capital profit off the table while still 60% vested as I believe now there is possible room for growth vs Ascendas Reit. To-date MINT has floated about Ascendas Reit in my Bubble Chart though smaller in size. Here's the previously reported chart.
To boost my dividends, Ascendas Reit has been increased from recent lows. Pretty happy about it. This filled my dividend gaps nicely but just as I did, MINT opened another due above. With much investment cash still available, I will probably be prudent this time to prepare for year end and be more conservative. One action I did is to increase my bond holding a little bit more.
Lastly, thanks to recent upswing in Reits again and... the idea of ever lowering yield in the market seems to take a stronger root. Cory Portfolio hit a high in profit with Xirr reaching 18% of range last seen in 5th July. However, this time is different because we are leaving STI quite far behind due to Bank components. Almost want to do a further average down on Banks but froze.
Cheers
Cory
2019-0920
Labels:
ASCENDAS REIT,
Mapletree Ind Tr,
Wells Fargo
Sep 14, 2019
Cory Diary : Cory Portfolio Re-balance - aftermath of MNACT sale
Cory Portfolio Re-balance
Mapletree NACT is one of Cory Striker and Dividend producer. One of Cory Core position in the portfolio. However the Black Swan event in Hong Kong provides some jittery to Cory fragile heart. After a black eye, decided to release it for better nights and securing profits. The pain is felt as not only Cory needs to look for growth compensation but also dividend support. At the same time to mitigate the risk.
To cover the gap, four new / add positions are made. Namely,
Sph Reit - Average Dividends Stability
iReit Global - Strong Yield with high level risk. Small position.
Vicom - Average Dividend Stability and Strong Defensive (expanded significantly)
Aims Apac Reit - Good Dividends with slightly higher risk
follow by sale of Sheng Siong. Long time lover who provided 5 years of good returns.
What an exercise ! Thank you Hong Kong ! I will be back when time is ripe.
Further investment is made to further expand existing STI ETF and DBS allocation for longer term investment on lows. This significantly protects the portfolio when dividend stocks slowed down and STI ignited recently.
Lastly, further expanded Ascendas Reit to the right proportion to other Reits lifting the theoretical dividends to $51k for Year 2020 positioning. Yes, is time to prepare. Have you ?
Cory
2019-0914
Mapletree NACT is one of Cory Striker and Dividend producer. One of Cory Core position in the portfolio. However the Black Swan event in Hong Kong provides some jittery to Cory fragile heart. After a black eye, decided to release it for better nights and securing profits. The pain is felt as not only Cory needs to look for growth compensation but also dividend support. At the same time to mitigate the risk.
To cover the gap, four new / add positions are made. Namely,
Sph Reit - Average Dividends Stability
iReit Global - Strong Yield with high level risk. Small position.
Vicom - Average Dividend Stability and Strong Defensive (expanded significantly)
Aims Apac Reit - Good Dividends with slightly higher risk
follow by sale of Sheng Siong. Long time lover who provided 5 years of good returns.
What an exercise ! Thank you Hong Kong ! I will be back when time is ripe.
Further investment is made to further expand existing STI ETF and DBS allocation for longer term investment on lows. This significantly protects the portfolio when dividend stocks slowed down and STI ignited recently.
Lastly, further expanded Ascendas Reit to the right proportion to other Reits lifting the theoretical dividends to $51k for Year 2020 positioning. Yes, is time to prepare. Have you ?
Cory
2019-0914
Sep 13, 2019
Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Review 2019-0913
The Asset grows about 1.6% from a month ago. Last reviewed asset allocation - here. This is an update with recent changes. Incorporated some feedback from fellow investors and did some adjustments. Now my Asset is a more effective team !
Saving segment % wise has come down despite moving dividends to it.
Equity seen larger percentage increases due to growing portfolio from returns and some cash injection. MMF no longer grouped here.
Fixed Deposits increased markedly from more placements and with MMF addition as it is earning reasonable returns.
Cory
2019-0913
Sep 7, 2019
Cory Diary : All Time High !
6th Sept 2019 is a bit special in the morning hours. Cory Portfolio reached an All Time high (ATH) profits (updated for privacy) when just recently reported returns. Another 12.8% gain. This is the result of a few key stocks reaching all time high (ATH) as well. Before we start congratulating, as soon portfolio hits ATH, the market turns for the worst and ended up lower than it started .... sian ... ....
With funds still available, I am browsing through 5 stocks of interests in which 3 has hit ATH that day. The other two I may mention them some other times due to limited time. So for today, they are namely FCOT, Ascendas Reit and Mapletree Ind Tr.
FCOT - Hit $1.7 but ended lower $1.64. A -3.5% down swing for the day. Seldom we see such movement as large as that day. One of the key reason is the 1.7 psychological level. The other is ATH. As is Friday, people starts to take profit.
The fundamental of FCOT has improved with Google on-board. And with other facility ready for contributions, we could see growing DPU. There are few concerns on the sustainability of the DPU. I have optimistic view. Even in t he event of reduction, the yield is good in this time of market. The only area i need to manage is exposure. Cory portfolio has 7.8% holding.
Ascendas Reit - Another ATH counter that day. Hits $3.21 before coming down $3.14. Swing of 7 cents is quite a lot in absolute figure but not really for a 3 dollar plus stock in percentage term. -2.18% from opening. The volume looks alright.
Year 2019 we see a good trajectory of the stock price due to it's size and stability in returns. Since GFC the stock price has been on a tear. One way up. A 3 baggers excluding dividends. A sure bet so far. The yield is about 5% and Cory Portfolio has 7% exposure.
Mapletree Ind Tr - Yes, this is another ATH stock. High $2.39 and close $2.34. The plus of this is the growth and US Data centers. If we think is at high price, the stock is also on one way up since IPO 2010. While we could see correction in any stock hitting 1 year of DPU, it will likely takes a bad market for 2 Years of DPU. During this period, a year could have gone by buffering the capital loss. This can applies to all above mentioned stocks. Cory Portfolio has 8.4% exposure in it.
Are you ready to hoot or go for another waiting game ? For Cory now, question is whether he is happy with the yield for the risk. Most importantly to treat it always as a new purchase and overall portfolio view.
The risk is from the angle we need to look at whether the STI and Banks will be on a new uptrend as they are quite resilient that day.
Cory
2019-0907
With funds still available, I am browsing through 5 stocks of interests in which 3 has hit ATH that day. The other two I may mention them some other times due to limited time. So for today, they are namely FCOT, Ascendas Reit and Mapletree Ind Tr.
FCOT - Hit $1.7 but ended lower $1.64. A -3.5% down swing for the day. Seldom we see such movement as large as that day. One of the key reason is the 1.7 psychological level. The other is ATH. As is Friday, people starts to take profit.
The fundamental of FCOT has improved with Google on-board. And with other facility ready for contributions, we could see growing DPU. There are few concerns on the sustainability of the DPU. I have optimistic view. Even in t he event of reduction, the yield is good in this time of market. The only area i need to manage is exposure. Cory portfolio has 7.8% holding.
Ascendas Reit - Another ATH counter that day. Hits $3.21 before coming down $3.14. Swing of 7 cents is quite a lot in absolute figure but not really for a 3 dollar plus stock in percentage term. -2.18% from opening. The volume looks alright.
Year 2019 we see a good trajectory of the stock price due to it's size and stability in returns. Since GFC the stock price has been on a tear. One way up. A 3 baggers excluding dividends. A sure bet so far. The yield is about 5% and Cory Portfolio has 7% exposure.
Mapletree Ind Tr - Yes, this is another ATH stock. High $2.39 and close $2.34. The plus of this is the growth and US Data centers. If we think is at high price, the stock is also on one way up since IPO 2010. While we could see correction in any stock hitting 1 year of DPU, it will likely takes a bad market for 2 Years of DPU. During this period, a year could have gone by buffering the capital loss. This can applies to all above mentioned stocks. Cory Portfolio has 8.4% exposure in it.
Are you ready to hoot or go for another waiting game ? For Cory now, question is whether he is happy with the yield for the risk. Most importantly to treat it always as a new purchase and overall portfolio view.
The risk is from the angle we need to look at whether the STI and Banks will be on a new uptrend as they are quite resilient that day.
Cory
2019-0907
Labels:
ASCENDAS REIT,
Dividend Investing,
FCOT,
Mapletree Ind Tr,
Portfolio
Sep 5, 2019
Cory Diary : Retail Investor Returns for 2019
The local SGX market as mentioned previously has been dynamic swings. If we have invested in just STI Index, we would probably next to zero returns excluding dividends for 2019. However, what about a community of local keen investors do in this market so far ?
Here's the survey result for Retailer Investors from keen group of stock investors.
Below is how the survey is framed.
The distribution is really interesting because of the extreme ends of the returns have much higher votes. Is not like the normal distribution we often see where we have the mountain shaped or maybe skewed of it. The survey reflects inverted result. Do note there is only 57 votes.
How do you do ?
Cheers
2019-0905
Here's the survey result for Retailer Investors from keen group of stock investors.
Below is how the survey is framed.
The distribution is really interesting because of the extreme ends of the returns have much higher votes. Is not like the normal distribution we often see where we have the mountain shaped or maybe skewed of it. The survey reflects inverted result. Do note there is only 57 votes.
How do you do ?
Cheers
2019-0905
Sep 1, 2019
Cory Diary : Dividends Shortfall
For those who miss my Aug Performance Report. Here you are.
Cory Portfolio Resilience
With the recent sales of Singtel and Mapletree NAC Tr, estimated dividends by year end will be reduced (updated for privacy) . This means potentially Cory Equity Portfolio may collect slightly lesser than Year 2018 despite bull year for Cory portfolio. Alamak ! Without saying it will be some distance from expected (updated for privacy) target..... sigh !
Portfolio yield is at 4.6%. This is mainly due to STI ETF and Bonds/ Preference shares holding the values down which has seen significant expansion as I try to lock my happy returns to safer harbor. Another possible reason is that there are additional stakes in some counters which do not have dividends for the remainder of the year. One for yield, the other speculation.
Will gather some bullets and re-balancing. Hopefully I can do some magics to fix the issue.
Cheers
Cory
2019-0901
Cory Portfolio Resilience
With the recent sales of Singtel and Mapletree NAC Tr, estimated dividends by year end will be reduced (updated for privacy) . This means potentially Cory Equity Portfolio may collect slightly lesser than Year 2018 despite bull year for Cory portfolio. Alamak ! Without saying it will be some distance from expected (updated for privacy) target..... sigh !
Portfolio yield is at 4.6%. This is mainly due to STI ETF and Bonds/ Preference shares holding the values down which has seen significant expansion as I try to lock my happy returns to safer harbor. Another possible reason is that there are additional stakes in some counters which do not have dividends for the remainder of the year. One for yield, the other speculation.
Will gather some bullets and re-balancing. Hopefully I can do some magics to fix the issue.
Cheers
Cory
2019-0901
Labels:
Dividend Investing,
MAPLETREE NAC TR,
Singtel,
STI ETF
Aug 30, 2019
Cory Diary : Portfolio Resilience August Report
STI Index has major roller coaster rides this year. The most recent one is just this month when it erases all it this year winning and then creep back up a little to end at +1.23% YTD. After dividends, probably +4% range.
How did Cory Portfolio performs ? If we are to use the relative perform chart against STI, End Jun report is Here and Early Aug in Here. Iran conflict did not happen. I was trying to secure the widened gap. Let's look how it goes.
Year-to-Date
(updated for privacy)
Cory Portfolio : 15.8% which came down from 18.x% range
excluding fixed instruments (ie bond) : 19.2%. This is mainly due to weakness in Banks, STI ETF and lastly Mapletree NAC Tr (Black-swan - HK Riots/RMB Depreciation).
(updated for privacy)
Overall portfolio outperforms STI by 11.x% so far this year. There are some changes in portfolio mix which I will elaborate in later blogging.
Cory
2019-0830
How did Cory Portfolio performs ? If we are to use the relative perform chart against STI, End Jun report is Here and Early Aug in Here. Iran conflict did not happen. I was trying to secure the widened gap. Let's look how it goes.
Year-to-Date
(updated for privacy)
Cory Portfolio : 15.8% which came down from 18.x% range
excluding fixed instruments (ie bond) : 19.2%. This is mainly due to weakness in Banks, STI ETF and lastly Mapletree NAC Tr (Black-swan - HK Riots/RMB Depreciation).
(updated for privacy)
Overall portfolio outperforms STI by 11.x% so far this year. There are some changes in portfolio mix which I will elaborate in later blogging.
Cory
2019-0830
Labels:
MAPLETREE NAC TR,
Performance,
STI ETF,
STI Index
Aug 29, 2019
Cory Diary : Trades - 2019-0829
Early morning today, dear wife lined me .... "Armoured cars rolling into Hong Kong" which kind of shocked me as I find this possibility remote. But after reading in detail, it was a "Routine" so to speak. We both agree .... is more of trying to intimidate. However, this is enough.
Decided to clear my Mapletree NAC Tr which registered two years of dividends. Could have been three years have it not the riots. We can't win it all can we ? This sale is quite painful because it has hit 6% yield. Decided SPH Reit despite 5% yield is the one I am comfortable to replace with. Obviously larger capital needed if I am to lock in similar dividends size.
The other key trade is I decided to sell my remaining Singtel shares. I took the opportunity when it hit a local spike to offload. One counter less as I decided to try iReit Global. Jio still on the hunt for market shares. Despite Airtel good defense, the battle will be prolonged hence my decision. Frankly, I feel some relief from the sale as I found later there is some mental stress hidden in the background. As I can sleep better, is a Good Choice !
A minor trade on some of my earlier Ascendas Reit shares failed. So I managed to bought back some shares in recent dip therefore boosting my dividends in the counter. I would consider this average up. I do average down on DBS.... which was my plan to align more towards STI for 2nd half of the year to benefit from it rise or rebound.... . Fortunately, the plan aren't so match and so much less impacted by STI Index recent banking segment poor performance.
Other than those key investment decision, I also remember attempting a speculative punt. Wish me luck on this one. Non-bank, non-reits and non-property. Is dangerous feeling rich .... All I could say.
Cory
2019-0829
Labels:
ASCENDAS REIT,
DBS,
iReit Global,
MAPLETREE NAC TR,
Singtel,
SPH Reit,
Trading
Aug 26, 2019
Cory Diary : How far can capital appreciation go for yield stocks ?
Take a peek in latest chart ... link.
In case link broken in the future .... here's the chart which show an excellent chart on forward dividend yield.
Using Indonesia, Singapore has 47% capital appreciation to go. 38% using Japan yield as a reference. In a market of overflowing cash, ever lowering yield is way to go.
Of-course this is still dependent on which stock we choose as the data is broad average. Some companies can still perform major screw-up. Will you be net buyer today ?
Reits hold very well so far in the market.
Cory
2019-0826
Aug 25, 2019
Cory Diary : A War that shouldn't have started ...
Trump twittered to increase taxes to 15% on $300B and remaining ... etc. This is in response to Chinese PRC increase tariffs on American products.
Frankly, the import of American goods to China is far lesser than China exports. Any increase in tariffs now is like whipping a dead horse after several rounds of retaliations. In all it's purpose, China latest response is for local consumption mainly FACE and probably upholding President Xi power base. Unfortunately, President Trump aren't the type who can lose face either. Furthermore this help America interests and his voting base to provide reason to further isolate China from America Economy to prevent a China near term rise to challenge America power presumption.
( LKY has said before as long China has peaceful development provided The PRC Chinese holds their horses they would reach their Super Power status. What a wise word said so long long ago. The key meaning therefore is "Provided" which appears no longer able to uphold Economically in Trade and Militarily in South China Sea)
With Tariffs card played out, China only left with mainly Currency or Financial instruments to continue the game. They have chosen currency which is the start of RMB weakening. This will be a down slope trend. So anyone holding to Forex exposure could be at risk. In reality, there could be upheaval in the market. And selling US treasuries to protect will likely to happen. This is a dual sword as it will weaken USD and further improve American business competitiveness that Trump has been begging Fed for.
Meantime, in any MNC industries, after such a long period of tariffs gestation, most are ready to switch to alternate countries on the go. There will be some pain but it would help to spread the wealth to regional countries rather than consolidate manufacturing base to a single country to benefit from. This will happen as is not just intellectual protection and fair trade. Is about containing China rise and ensuring America continues to be the only super power.
Maybe if China has cooperated early in the game, the extend of the damage to Chinese economy could be managed. I think we could be at a point of no return now and any compromise will likely requires China to give up a lot more such as FaceBook, Google, Twitter, U-Tube, Whats app market access in-additions to all the original complains. Meanwhile America still have more cards in play. HK Special status, more Tariffs, Supply Chain Value-add percentage and controls, debt limits and lastly if Fed is to cooperate, Interest rates.
The damage is clear based on current DJIA vs Shanghai Index comparison. And this is before expected coming Monday slide in Asia time. But the pill will be very hard to swallow. Finally, the argument of American consumers pay more is irrelevant as this will only reduce consumption slightly as the cost delta to operate outside China is likely to be around 5% increase. This could translate higher in the market but is not going to be out-of-the-world pricing.
This probably explains why Trump is so willing to proactively engage in the trade battle for Supremacy. Even if China can wait till Oct'20 which appears more remote now with the elevated crisis on the economic impact, Trump failure to be re-elected do not guaranteed any discontinuation in current policy for Trade War is probably the largest misnomer among the media today.
Cory
2019-0825
Frankly, the import of American goods to China is far lesser than China exports. Any increase in tariffs now is like whipping a dead horse after several rounds of retaliations. In all it's purpose, China latest response is for local consumption mainly FACE and probably upholding President Xi power base. Unfortunately, President Trump aren't the type who can lose face either. Furthermore this help America interests and his voting base to provide reason to further isolate China from America Economy to prevent a China near term rise to challenge America power presumption.
( LKY has said before as long China has peaceful development provided The PRC Chinese holds their horses they would reach their Super Power status. What a wise word said so long long ago. The key meaning therefore is "Provided" which appears no longer able to uphold Economically in Trade and Militarily in South China Sea)
With Tariffs card played out, China only left with mainly Currency or Financial instruments to continue the game. They have chosen currency which is the start of RMB weakening. This will be a down slope trend. So anyone holding to Forex exposure could be at risk. In reality, there could be upheaval in the market. And selling US treasuries to protect will likely to happen. This is a dual sword as it will weaken USD and further improve American business competitiveness that Trump has been begging Fed for.
Meantime, in any MNC industries, after such a long period of tariffs gestation, most are ready to switch to alternate countries on the go. There will be some pain but it would help to spread the wealth to regional countries rather than consolidate manufacturing base to a single country to benefit from. This will happen as is not just intellectual protection and fair trade. Is about containing China rise and ensuring America continues to be the only super power.
Maybe if China has cooperated early in the game, the extend of the damage to Chinese economy could be managed. I think we could be at a point of no return now and any compromise will likely requires China to give up a lot more such as FaceBook, Google, Twitter, U-Tube, Whats app market access in-additions to all the original complains. Meanwhile America still have more cards in play. HK Special status, more Tariffs, Supply Chain Value-add percentage and controls, debt limits and lastly if Fed is to cooperate, Interest rates.
The damage is clear based on current DJIA vs Shanghai Index comparison. And this is before expected coming Monday slide in Asia time. But the pill will be very hard to swallow. Finally, the argument of American consumers pay more is irrelevant as this will only reduce consumption slightly as the cost delta to operate outside China is likely to be around 5% increase. This could translate higher in the market but is not going to be out-of-the-world pricing.
This probably explains why Trump is so willing to proactively engage in the trade battle for Supremacy. Even if China can wait till Oct'20 which appears more remote now with the elevated crisis on the economic impact, Trump failure to be re-elected do not guaranteed any discontinuation in current policy for Trade War is probably the largest misnomer among the media today.
Cory
2019-0825
Aug 21, 2019
Cory Diary : Ever lowering Yield Reality
To Cory, every lowering yield has been a key phenomenon for decades as i blogged earlier. Looks at this chart 1. Federal Fund Rate has been going on since 1980s. That's almost 40 years of trend. Recessions precipitates whenever there is locality inflation (not shown in chart).
Chart 1 : FFR, Treasury Yield and SP500 |
Let's look at another interesting chart 2. What happen with increasing effective federal fund rate. We probably have yields inversion.
Chart 2: Effective FFR and Treasury Yields |
From read above, Interest rate is closely tied to managing inflation. With increasing rate, there is potential of recession. The overall trend for the past 40 years have been decreasing rate as long we keep inflation in checks. Ever lowering rates have been driving SP 500 direction up generally.
This could explain why there is no rational reason for Fed to raise rates unless we see high inflation. Low rate means money to fund cost of business is low therefore driving employment I think ! So who want to go against that ? Will we see even lower yield (meaning high reits prices is here to stay ? ). Why not ? I aren't going to bet against a 40 years trend.
What this mean is that the more we delay in investing yield income asset, the income we have will be lesser in the future. So do we still want to take profit or should we let our investments continue to fund us ? The only time I think is practical to get out is when we really have major recession like 2008. This is like lifetime event. However, even if we didn't sell, is still a small beep on the ever lower yield trend and high stock prices after.
Key takeaway from my read
1. Ever lowering yield is the trend. Meaning lesser dividend income if we invest later.
2. Inflation drives Interest rate
3. Low Interest rate drives economy
Let me know your thoughts
Cory
2019-0821
Aug 10, 2019
Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Review 2019-0810
Seems like it has been a while since last reviewed my asset allocations. Not that I do not like. I always have the curiosity on how they goes and prefer to check on them more often than not as I am a slow learner. Usually I will do a quick round of updates across my accounts and have them reflected. Thanks to excel, this is all done in minutes.
In this update, the computation is a lot more simple on a more conservative side of perspective angle. Saving allocation has been reduced to 10% but I think it can be further improve.
Liquid Cash Flows from Investments
Equity/Bond/Pref theoretical annual dividends : -
Gov Securities : - ( assume max 10 years )
Saving/FD : -
Investment Sub-Total : -
Maximizing Returns
Saving 10% allocation implied missing (updated for privacy) possible earning. So I think maybe opportunity to tap more here in the future
Sub-Total : $0
Pension/CPF/Insurance
This will be buffer. Another is because I would probably tap on them after 65 yr old.
Sub-Total : $0
Rental Providence ( update : instead from income)
(updated for privacy)
Cory Asset Annual Returns : (updated for privacy)
I do have salary income. And I am still paying Insurance. For simplicity, they are excluded. I hope this is a realistic and simplified as I could get for estimating returns from non-salary income perspective.
Happy to say this well cover my home loan today.
My next goal is to increase my returns further to (updated for privacy) annually from non-salary income with minimal risk.
Cory
2019-0810
Aug 9, 2019
Cory Diary : Trades - 2019-0809
I have been looking further into banks but find it not easy to buy more considering the interests rates are being talked down. Getting more Reits are a bit tricky. CMT and FCOT do have some lows past few weeks period but I do not have a chance to investigate further with my recent hospitalization. CMT yield is quite low so my keenness is limited and happy with what I have currently. Buying high yield with weak fundamental is risky. I rather leave my cash alone. They aren't the same league as Ascendas, Frasers, Mapletree or Capitaland breeds ...
STI Index
VICOM
As you may know, I have been ranting how small my exposure is in this counter. So I do some buying which boost my Portfolio Yield despite the price has run up this year. I feel there is sufficient positive to have a large stake in. I am more interested in their other businesses. So a bet there will be some growth while able to continue to support the dividend yield (excluding special dividends). This is quite an illiquid counter. You can't buy much and I suspect you can't do much shorts as the counter can spikes and you will be caught with pants down for a long time.
SIngtel
I have been holding from averaging down on Singtel till i see sufficient signs. The last one is the quarterly report which is kind of below expectation. This mean I need to wait for another quarter to review. Meantime, I reduce my stake further to lock in some gains YTD to buy more into Vicom. I almost decide to sell the remainder of Singtel to manage my counter numbers but decides otherwise as there could be rebound that I will hate to miss.
Netlink BNB Tr
As you may be aware . I am back on securing some from this counter. Frankly, the feeling is good as the price goes back up quicker than I expected. So is just a small moon in my bubble chart. Nevertheless, I am glad to be able to get some.
My family and I are very well vested in Singapore. We hope Singapore continues to prosper. So our wishes may this continues !
Happy National Day, Singapore !
Cory
2019-0809
Labels:
NetLink NBN Tr,
Singtel,
STI ETF,
Trading,
Vicom
Aug 7, 2019
Cory Diary : laparoscopic cholecystectomy
If anyone wondering what the hell it is, I went for ER more than a week ago and end up for laparoscopic cholecystectomy surgery on the same day. Basically to remove my gall bladder and to solve other complication. I would say this is one of the unpleasant surprises I have this year.
Mood swing from positive to delight to negative to very negative .... and then mood came back positive day by day ... all within the span of one week. Sounds like stock market huh ? My wife needs to cheer me up during this period. Think I did more than 10 X-rays ....as well. Fortunately I did not fall into depression from my medical conditions. However, I did loose significant interests to trade considering I am bedridden literally for a week and 5kg lesser.
To be frank, during this "Horrific Period", I took a couple of seconds to glance on my counters despite my mood swings. Today I am back on my desk, to tally up my dividends and portfolio value. What a change for STI gaping down (data points as and when I update my data) to 3170. That's put it just 3.3 % gains this year before dividends.
As for Cory Portfolio I am kind of surprise that XIRR still hold a good 15% YTD or Portfolio yield of 14% range. Do a double check for errors which seems good. The only explanation is that Reits again held up very well as we are compensated by dividends during current turbulent period which also probably gives the impression that the Reit market is sliding more than it was.
I am not sure is time for shopping. I do have some fund in cash management account to boost my portfolio yield (updated for privacy) . My timing on Reits do not have good track record so to speak.... but if I could find something stable for 6% I would grab. That's leave "little" candidates .... to speak of.
Cory
2019-0807
Mood swing from positive to delight to negative to very negative .... and then mood came back positive day by day ... all within the span of one week. Sounds like stock market huh ? My wife needs to cheer me up during this period. Think I did more than 10 X-rays ....as well. Fortunately I did not fall into depression from my medical conditions. However, I did loose significant interests to trade considering I am bedridden literally for a week and 5kg lesser.
To be frank, during this "Horrific Period", I took a couple of seconds to glance on my counters despite my mood swings. Today I am back on my desk, to tally up my dividends and portfolio value. What a change for STI gaping down (data points as and when I update my data) to 3170. That's put it just 3.3 % gains this year before dividends.
As for Cory Portfolio I am kind of surprise that XIRR still hold a good 15% YTD or Portfolio yield of 14% range. Do a double check for errors which seems good. The only explanation is that Reits again held up very well as we are compensated by dividends during current turbulent period which also probably gives the impression that the Reit market is sliding more than it was.
I am not sure is time for shopping. I do have some fund in cash management account to boost my portfolio yield (updated for privacy) . My timing on Reits do not have good track record so to speak.... but if I could find something stable for 6% I would grab. That's leave "little" candidates .... to speak of.
Cory
2019-0807
Jul 23, 2019
Cory Diary : Trades 2019 June/July
Been some time since I last blog on my trades. This beauty on the left has been getting quite an attention from me. Before I get suck in again, thought I could give an updates on what I can remember on my trades. Hopefully, I get a bigger picture on what I am doing from my silly moves.
Do note I am no expert and just sharing of what I have done. As is a re-collection, some details and trades will not be available and could have error. By no means should one based on my article to make your investment decisions. I could be well vested and be selling to you. haha. thanks for milk powder contribution if you did ! However, I am quite well vested in the market due to dividend play.
Here we go. I am back holding some Netlink BNB Tr on recent price weakness. Just small amount to improve my portfolio yields a little bit more but wouldn't want to get caught and lose back my gains on this counter. Is a far cry of what I have in the past.
Decided to let go ValueMax to balance my counters. There has been some movement and I am not surprise others may get a better price than me after. XIRR 8% which is about 4% kopi profits. With that I am left with 2 SMEs.
Manage to up my DBS some more and benefited from recent rise. The actual reason is more of lack of upside in Reits after the 1st half feat which I personally feel is late gratification. Due to relatively rich valuation, upside is harder but not impossible just lesser gains. However I do not think we can rate Reits like other stocks as the rise is due ever lowering yields which means the price can last a long time at this level while earning catches up.
There are a few stocks which I almost like to enter and decided not. Great Eastern, Frasers L&R Tr, Frasers CPT Tr ... due to variety of reasons. Maybe the Reits reporting season will give me a good hunch.
The mistake which I still feel the pain is Vicom. I have too little ... and I am not comfortable to average up. Kiasi me again ...
Cory
2019-0723
Do note I am no expert and just sharing of what I have done. As is a re-collection, some details and trades will not be available and could have error. By no means should one based on my article to make your investment decisions. I could be well vested and be selling to you. haha. thanks for milk powder contribution if you did ! However, I am quite well vested in the market due to dividend play.
Here we go. I am back holding some Netlink BNB Tr on recent price weakness. Just small amount to improve my portfolio yields a little bit more but wouldn't want to get caught and lose back my gains on this counter. Is a far cry of what I have in the past.
Decided to let go ValueMax to balance my counters. There has been some movement and I am not surprise others may get a better price than me after. XIRR 8% which is about 4% kopi profits. With that I am left with 2 SMEs.
Manage to up my DBS some more and benefited from recent rise. The actual reason is more of lack of upside in Reits after the 1st half feat which I personally feel is late gratification. Due to relatively rich valuation, upside is harder but not impossible just lesser gains. However I do not think we can rate Reits like other stocks as the rise is due ever lowering yields which means the price can last a long time at this level while earning catches up.
There are a few stocks which I almost like to enter and decided not. Great Eastern, Frasers L&R Tr, Frasers CPT Tr ... due to variety of reasons. Maybe the Reits reporting season will give me a good hunch.
The mistake which I still feel the pain is Vicom. I have too little ... and I am not comfortable to average up. Kiasi me again ...
Cory
2019-0723
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