Cory Diary : STI Rebounded 2019 June

STI has been quite volatile. This week it starts rebounding. If one has invested near end of last year, today one would still has nice returns of about 300 points ahead.

As we can see from long term resistance support, averaged down more on STI earlier and is now benefiting from the rebound. Recent low is a test of one resolve. The turmoil of the market doing their sum on our thinking. However, being portfolio buffered, this bring calmness for us to try.

Everyone waiting for FED now. Trump complained last time and likely more this time as he needs more ammunition to fight trade battle with China and EU especially we could see currency war entering the game. Will FED supports ?

Expecting the rate to hold. Chance is 60%. Cut 30%  However, if Powell tries to be funny and raise the interest rates instead, the market could well #$^$%&%^$*%4&*)&. Maybe he will try other options instead. However, should policy be reactive based on data coming in or anticipation in today world. Maybe we need to change with time.

Cory

2019-0619

Cory Diary : Asset allocation 2019 Jun

In my plan for retirement, if it happens, there could be draw-down in my net worth. Next question will be how fast. So I decided to do a rough update estimate based on what I have today.

Roughly, I could see return generation of 113 K annually. This could be generous on the property. Never mind. Just ignore me on that one. However, to meet short-medium term needs, FCF is more important. Which left me with 51.5K annually after removing Insurance, Property and Pension. And this is assuming I have surrendered my Insurance policy. I still have loan to pay up, which implied even with my net worth today, I could not afford to retire for the lifestyle I want to maintain after, without draw-down.

First thing to do is to tackle my most unproductive asset which is Saving. With Gov securities that can double up as Emergency and Housing loan support, there is no need to have such a high saving % allocation which has been my constant issue with saving rate from salary and bonus. This needs to cut down by a third of which I would have my SSB max. and then remainder to war chest.   This saving category includes cash management account which is giving reasonable interests. 

Secondly, my backup plan is to sell my property after 7 years and would switch to further OCR region to increase the psf when I retired for at least same amount. This is not impractical from current caveats logged. However, my wish is to have another property instead and this will required environment to be conducive enough such as removal of ABSD, and my saving rate and investment are reasonable to generate growing dividends.

In a not so good scenario, where I decided to retire immediate,  and my investment returns turn sour. I would estimate 5% draw down after paying up all my loans from the start, will last me for at least 17 years. After which, I am left with Pension and Property. Then the option is to down-grade .... to finance more reasonable lifestyle and my daughter education. At 67 then, maybe is still ok. Still cannot tahan, then I will ask my wife to chip in (my last buffer of buffer which is to clean tables lol ... ) . ha.


Someone said : What about legacy ?

Uncle Cory : Simi lah. Down grade liao still want legacy. You only have one life to live.
...  Legacy is for the rich. Don't act rich if you are not.




Cheers

Cory
2019-0616

Cory Diary : Value-Add in Trade War

“If he shows up, good, if he doesn’t – in the meantime, we’re taking in billions of dollars a month [in tariffs] from China,” Trump tells “Fox & Friends.”

Sounds familiar ? Yup is from President Trump. Interestingly to say it so openly could imply many things ...

1. He is threatening President Xi
2. He purposely want to make sure President Xi lose face
3. He is trying to make sure President Xi won't attend G20
4. He is trying to stall the talk purposely
5. He is not thinking at all
6. He is not interested for trade talk at all. Is all a ruse
7. He is stupid

Let's sit back and think when the 25% tariffs kick-in. First is final export to America cannot be China as the tariffs are too high unless we are prepared to pass the cost to consumer which are specifically American Consumers. This won't happen due to competition for market shares therefore even Chinese companies will have to change their supply chain model.

Secondly, to classify as not China produce there have to be sufficient value-add through the supply chain. Value-Add could be the next level that Trump administration will focus on if Trade War gets deeper. For now, if one need to avoid tariffs is to have the key assembly done in another country say Mexico but there must be enough value-add to the product. Adding packaging or labeling which are cosmetic and naming won't be enough and US will still consider it as Made in China.

What will happen is manufacturers will likely do the minimum to meet the cut-off. This will mean China will still produce the basic raw lower level assemblies. Some jobs will be loss. There will be a slight delta in product cost due to additional touches in Mexico. Consumers probably won't feel much impact.

If this model continues long enough, soon manufacturers will find cheaper eco-system outside china. This could be expedited and permanent if they decided to adjust the value-add criteria higher such that it may not make sense to even do basic assemblies in China. When this happen, product cost will soon come down to norm or even cheaper. This could take a few years to happen though.

The final stage will be when the new eco-system is so establish, Mexico can be a manufacturer not only for America market but also the other parts of the world. At this time, China will start their own protectionist measures requiring their own local value-add to sell in China.

Replace Mexico with few other like countries. Countries that benefits from this trade war will be Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand, Cambodia, South Korea, Japan, Singapore etc. Maybe even India if they open up their market fast enough. Remote choice could be North Korea if they have settled their difference with America.

From what I see, trade war is just a pre-text for bigger things to come. Is about ensuring US stay much ahead. So from this read, who will pays for the tariffs ? Where should we focus our investments ? How the world will be after ? Food for thoughts.

Cory
2019-0614

Cory Diary : Market Euphoria on Reits ?

Market today continues to plough into Reits euphoria. This pushes Portfolio to new high. The story seems to continue. However 2 things need to be cautious. G20 and Fed. Hopefully none will break this rising rhythm as I previously mentioned the gap between risk free rates such as SSB and stable returns of strong Reits. This is still hold true so far.

With money sitting in cash management account coupled with saving banks, opting to max out SSB is a growing option. But this could slow down my portfolio growth for years to come due to compounding effect. This logic holds true for people who sell most and took profits. Once we do that, coming back is aren't easy.

Investment is a long game. Portfolio growth is a priority. Unless we see cliff right in front of us, derailing may not be wise so one would prefer to stay invested. Right now earning is still coming in, continue monitoring. Wish me luck.


Cory

2019-0613

Cory Diary : Bubble Report 2019-0611

Straits Time Index has come down by 5.5% since my last bubble chart report on 5/2. That's -186 points. So investing in ETF is not that straight forward. Timing helps as previously mentioned. 

With the recent correction, I have increased my stake in STI ETF. With corresponding profit taking in some of my REIT counters, ETF is now the largest counter. This can be easily observed from the bubble size.

Let's do a review of the Bubble Chart.

First the bad news.

1. Unlike past bubble chart, there aren't need t do Axis adjustment to fit higher earning. ( Due to risk adjusted )

2. Banks are still in doldrums .... .  ( Trying to bottom fish )

3. STI ETF has come down due to large swing on the straits time index within a month. ( Average down )

Here's the good news

1. Reits / Trust profits have generally been moving upwards eclipsing STI ETF downward moves. Looks like it has stabilised.

2. Portfolio is generally performing which can be seen for the relatively lower profitability of bonds in the chart.


My Plan as mentioned earlier is to preserve the leading gap of my portfolio. Is working so far. Will continue to monitor. What's next. Something I need to figure out.

Here's the link for those who are interested in the progress of the Bubble chart for this year so far.

Cory
2019-0611

Cory Diary : New Heights with Low Risk Portfolio Balance

This is one of the interesting year where we have obvious divergence in the performance of a portfolio high in Reits (~50%) vs STI returns which has fallen to-date to 3.18%. With the much less possibility of Rates increase, the sentiment of Reits have been quite exciting this past week.


Clearly staying invested and believing in the positiveness of Reit so far, dividend investors have benefited a lot from the upwards move if we walk the talk. Nevertheless, we need to stay nimble and monitor the market. Trump has stated Mexico Tariffs is off. That's a relief.

As previous mentioned, I moved some funds to ensure portfolio higher returns gap "Be maintained" relative to STI Index such as with DBS and STI Index. So far they have stay relatively stagnant. I also raised fund when I close my FCT position. Again this is more opportunity base due to the spike and my speculative blood in me to try for capital gains. Don't do this unless you have 7 other Reits and Trusts like me. Grrrrrr....


Xirr hits higher to 11.6% partially helped by realised gains in FCT. The Actual profit is roughly 10.8% which gives me more (updated for privacy)  profit this year. Overall the Portfolio is balanced in such a way that I can sleep better at night. With some spare cash, I am again looking for opportunity. I may decide to max my Singapore Saving Bond. We shall see.

Cheers

Cory
2019-0608

Cory Diary : Bitching my favorite again

Regulars will know I am a great fan of Malls and do not believe we will have "Amazon Experience" in metropolitan Singapore.  I started investing CMT and FCT only in 2014.  Strong malls like CMT and FCT have relatively lower yields. Six years have passed since GFC before I realised sector in the market that I have greatly misunderstood. Yes, I am a slow learner. However, is better be late than never. Total profit is Strong Five Digits returns today.

Why the article today ? Well, CMT has a large spike of 11 cent today hitting $2.57. FCT has a good day too.  This quickly bring CMT yield to-date to roughly 4.5%. If one could remember when I blogged about Yield Anchoring this could be what I am expecting of ever lower yield. Will the price go higher to the unknown since is at all time high or it will crash soon?

Took a look on the DPU and compute the yield from it. To hit $2.80 (arbitrary), CMT yield would drops to near 4%. Is this enough for "kiasi" me ? I will be happy compared to SSB or Bank Interests surely. 

What is the chance that it will crash from $2.57 ? Well, DPU has to fall. Which mean Malls Business have to fall largely. Make sense to you now ? Will you buy more instead ?

Cory

2019-0606

Cory Diary : Leapfrog your wealth

There are ways to leapfrog our wealth. Coming from below middle income family, and choosing a down-to-earth wife ( hee hee ), marriage do helps but inheritance from our families are out. Neither do our families have business acumen. So I would say today my siblings and we are above middle income. Hey, that's what makes Singapore incredible isn't it ? As long we work hard and smart, with a little luck and opportunity, we are contented.

As previously blogged, I am a "Value Saver" but I aren't frugal. I can spurt a dinner that cost few hundreds, and renovation in good 5 digits. As a value/dividend stock investor, this bring me quite a good sum to my net-worth. Of-course this won't happen fast enough if I do not have monthly salary and saving, and then equity investment.

Now, I can add that Property Investment as another option to propel. See chart below. With the mark-to-market valuation based on recent residential transactions of surrounding properties on the same development. Of-course some friends would say as long I don't sell, is only paper gain. This actually applies to my dividend stocks too. Nevertheless, Net-worth is the market value you have. 

My thinking is whether we sell it or not is subjective. Holding cash in an inflationary environment is losing money too so I rather put my money to work continuously. Unless we are doing short term speculative trade, taking profit to realize the gain is cutting our game short as a good hedge against inflation.

Property provides a strong underlying asset base so I am in the mentality of "Never Sell". It can be also be an insurance that if needed, I could use it for downgrade therefore the more I would like to hold it for long term appreciation to be meaningful.

What I find amazing from this experience is how fast the pace of  property appreciation and loan leverage can do to one's net-worth. No wonder our government needs to introduce curbs to rein them in to ensure more stable market.  As for another sharing based on my limited experience, I realised the surrounding properties about few hundred meters away do not appreciate much at all for the same period. A real example of location of property matters in value appreciation.


In summary, the list of Wealth Accumulation. 

1. Monthly Salary - Yes
2. Property Investment - Yes
3. Stock Investment - Yes
4. Marriage
5. Saving - Yes
6. Inheritance
7. Business


Cory
2019-0602

Cory Diary : Mexico tariffs - Cory Performance 2019 May

This can be viewed as a continuation of STI Volatility article here. This update unfortunately faced Mexico Tariffs on the last trading day of the month and we see adverse dip in ST Index. This also marked Sell-in-May and go away complete.

Had a few conference calls with my colleagues in preparation for China Tariffs and now have to absorb the impact of Mexico Tariffs.  Trump is keeping my brain busy. We know from day one that there will be some exodus of manufacturing out-of-China however how much and how long it takes still to be determine.

This basically boils down to what level of manufacturing is considered Not made in China. And everyone probably trying to do the minimum cut-off and finish the final product somewhere else. Asean, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Mexico probably benefits the most from this trade war in term of job creation. This may means well for Singapore as regional HQ. Hong Kong may lose out.

We do know that if we are kept long enough outside China and if deep enough, we probably won't be moving back to China. For America market, naturally Mexico will be an ideal site due to abundance labors and lands. However for supply chain eco-system to work more smoothly, proximity to China will be better.

What will be the end game will be interesting to find out. The world may never be the same again.

Bye ... baby awakes now.

Cory

2019-0601

Cory Diary : Housing Leverage

Just want to share something from my personal experience on housing.

Used to own HDB Maisonette years ago and sold it for slightly more than 100K profit only to see it go for another after. As I am often based overseas, decided to acquire a Private home later if I decide to return for good.

Here's my previous thoughts. How my thinking change over time and steps I took.

1. Link on My Home in Year 2014
This basically say how I felt about rising property prices is not helping us socially. Rising price.

2. Link on Shrinking and Integrated Property in Year 2015
With prices running above income, shrinking property size. Value of integrated property thoughts. The situation.

3. Link on Money in Gaming in Year 2015
Money is continuously shrinking. The inflation.

4. Link on Million Dollar home in Year 2017
In  Year 2013 I blogged about $1M home goal which post I have moved to draft to clean up.
However my 2017 article basically summaries. Acted.

With that, I realised that it does not make sense for me to hold Gold as property can be a good hedge against inflation.  In Year 2019 today, my value of my home has increased by 25% approximately. This is based on current similar property price on location and estate. As is only 20% down with roughly 5% expenses.  Maybe I can do a similar XIRR on the returns and it works out about 21% annually. Kind of surprise.

This explain the power of housing leverage unlike typical stock investment. The other benefit is the diversification from stock market.



Cory
2019-0531

Cory Diary : Golden Era of Reits

Throughout history when something reaches it's peak, downhill is the way to go. From Tang Dynasty to Mongol Empire. Roman to British Empire. Even in science, Quote by Isaac Newton: “What goes up must come down.” 

So question in our minds ...  Have Reits reached it peaks ?

The question will be on the questioner on why the question. When it comes, it will come.
Till it comes. Meantime .... enjoy our Golden Era. It has been 10 years already since last GFC. Whatever has been gained, easily doubled. Buffer not enough ?

Something to cheer your Tuesday.

Cory
2019-0528

Cory Diary : Dividend Hat

Reits have ex-dividend just recently. And interestingly at today prices, the dividend gap has mostly closed. What ! Since when they becomes a gem... well not exactly like those miraculous speculative counters that spiked more than 20% in a day but if we are to track the trend across multi-years, Reits are like turtle but they will reach and beyond.

A few examples on just this year returns for me will be Ascendas Reit closes $2.95 (Xirr 27%), CapitaMall Trust $2.44 (Xirr 11%) and Mapletree Ind Tr $2.10 (Xirr 10%). Instead of going lower, many Reits have went up in this Trade War. 

Quote from Warren Buffett :

“Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the ‘hamburgers’ they will soon be buying."

“This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.”

This is easily applied to Stable Return Equities. Investing in Strong Reits are simple. DPU and Growth. If the price go lower, is cheaper ! This is so true for investment that has stable returns. Problem is too many people has "master the art". Reits are at ever lowering yield. Does that mean is no good ? Maybe is just the Hat you want to wear. All in the mind.



Cory
2019-0525

Cory Diary : Volatile STI

Volatility

The picture has changed so much for STI. Banks were hammered down. In addition to the Trade War the new concern is the virtual bank licensing. The Reits / Trusts generally do much better that even the weaker ones make the Banks look bad.

I did a bottom fishing on STI ETF to support the gap in performance between the ETF and me. However, it seems STI ETF still has some distance to go further down as the next tariffs of US$300 B is going to be major. Companies should be making preparation for this as this could hit China manufacturing with more substance whereas previously maybe just on finishing touch of products.

I think War Chest is more essential today than few days ago as the market trend seems getting a little nervous. While I hold the view that stable Reits are like "Fixed Deposits", this is based on the opinion that DPU remains stable and Investor ignore Capital Gain/Loss. So any significant market changes, if any, to hit this class of asset, this may even present good opportunity for the fund to expand. Question is how deep ?


Feeling bored and thinking.


Cory
2019-0523

Cory Diary : Net Worth 20190519

Last previous blog here. 

The key change after 3.5 months are my Net Property Asset. Definition is the value of my property minus outstanding loan. This is then added to my Net Worth. The way to obtain value of my property is to access URA website for recent transacted values in $psf. And then do a conservative estimate of what my property value be if I have to sell it today.

Other changes includes increase in Singapore Saving Bond holdings (SSB) and increase in equity valuation due to capital gains. Both % figures hold well but SSB still reduces slightly in % wise. More cash today in my investment account and the unrealised gains from stocks outweighs the net sales. Dividends are straight into cash.

Despite that, saving reduced in % wise. Mainly because I have just paid my tax.  Proportionate  decrease due to significant increase in property net value. Slightly higher spending due to new cost for nanny. 


Cheers

Cory
2019-0519

Cory Diary : Settled my Tax for 2019

Like in many countries, we have Income Tax, GST, Road Tax and Property Tax. Similarly for me even though I am based oversea, I can't escape them as well. The tax here (oversea) is the biggest item of my expenses. Usually I look forward to good bonus to help cover them. There are few deductions to be made before I can see my money in my bank account. There is Pension too but that is another topic.


Taxes

In the payroll, there are Income Withholding Tax, Labor Insurance Tax, Company deductions and Medical Tax.  Company deductions, Labor and Medical Tax are deducted directly through payroll. To be clear they aren't part of Income Tax. They probably constitutes about 2% of Income. The company will pay separately about 8% to the government. This works to about similar to our MediSave size. However the key difference is the money is to a common pool and will not be returned unlike Medi-Save.

The much larger component will be Income Tax. To cope with the payment, the authority will withhold some money every month and one will pay the balance after an assessment during the tax period. Yes, this is deducted from payroll as well.


Assessments

The income tax here has three routes of assessing the needed unlike Singapore where is pretty straight forward for most of us. Usually, only 2 will be used as the 3rd option is only when you have very significant earning. One of the easiest way for me is to ask for tax office personal assistant (temp worker) to follow through the form on the required. And the system will compute what is needed and I will pay the lower of the two after withholding amount that has already been deducted monthly prior year. After doing a few verification with the tax officer, I will proceed to payment using ATM setup within the tax office that allow us to withdraw over the typical limits.


Tax Rate

From table above already translated into S$, most Singaporeans income would fall within the range of 20% cascading. That's pretty high. Do note this tax excludes Medical and Pension consideration which are considered separately. If you are a Senior Manager and above, 30% - 40% cascading tax of your income is the norm here (oversea).

This is one main reason why people who earns good income like to come to Singapore. The taxes in Singapore is relatively much lower.



Cheers

Cory
2019-0518

Cory Diary : Shaky Shaky - Market on brink of ...

Relative Performance is like a bitch but I like it. Keeps me on my toes. There is also a deep secret which I have been studying for some time that is to use it to do re-balance between STI ETF against my portfolio. That way I could theoretically increase my odds to beat Strait Times Index.

Using Cory Barometer above, the gap is widening so maybe good time to plunge into STI ETF. However, Uncle scare scare. Almost try DBS but also scare scare. Okay okay. How about buying back Mapletree Ind Tr ? Also scare .... glad that I raised some cash.

In the end, Cory Gene Strategy : Freeze..... ( Think I am crazy ? Ignore me )


Cory
2019-0513

Cory Diary : Portfolio at 18

The market currently in upheaval due to recent Trade Issues. During this period I do some adjustment and manage to raise 6 figures warchest from recent sales in my trading account. The exercise is more of re-balance with more net cash. JD.com and SIA no longer in my portfolio. I have no plan to tap on bank cash which will be reserved.

Currently Xirr : 10.7% for my portfolio. Profits yield is slightly lower at 9.7% due to realised gains before year ended. STI came down to 6.5% quite furiously which is about 8.5% after dividends using STI ETF as a reference. Total dividend collected so far 17K.

Reits/Trusts - Still surprisingly resilient in the face of trade war. Applying same logic's of CMT onto Ascendas-Tr and Ascendas Reits taking some profits off the table, they are smaller today but still pack a punch. I am still looking for opportunity to boost my dividends which currently stand at potential 43K max now. I like to end up with 50k potential by year end.


For the current negotiation, I still believe in human minds prevail, an acceptable agreement will be reached. Since is initiated by USA, is definitely will favor them. The world trade is based on USD. The Consumption power house is in US. There is limited option for the Chinese.  This could still end up favorable to Mexico and SE-Asian countries as we will be more involve in production export to America. Therefore good for our industrial assets.


Cory

2019-0509

Cory Diary : Yield Anchoring

This is the concept I have termed which trying to grasp. A number of us understand not to fall into the trap of price anchoring. What this mean is that there is a believe of specific price of a stock that one is familiar without consideration of fundamental or market changes.

This often happens when one buy a stock  and will not sell even when fundamental has weakened and continues to assume the price will return to purchase price or higher. 

Yield Anchoring is more for dividend investor. Say we use to buy CMT at 5.8% yield. Today the stock price is trading at 4.8% yield, one may view as too expensive. Should we sell CMT ? Can we buy CMT ?

If I am to go through logical thought process. Few things come into my mind.

1. Business Fundamental
Can DPU maintains? Can it grow?

2. Alternative investment
Alternative investment that gives better yield for similar risk ?

3. Risks
Is my personal situation or macro environment considerations.


If we are to think through carefully above, there maybe time I could refuse to buy CMT at 5.8% yield but later on could be all willing to purchase at 4.8% ! 

In current market condition, Interests rate are low. I could view CMT providing stable 4.8% yield for next couple of years with potential of DPU growth. The view that CMT Malls Business are vibrant and domineering leadership in the market. Relatively low gearing which could avoid loan liquidity issue if there are recession. And with property curbs .... investment limited.

This may explains why selected performing Reits and Trusts do well even under trying condition of the market. Will it change ? Sure does. So we need to monitor but usually is not a overnight thing except Trump tweets .....



Cory
2090509

Cory Diary : Ten Laps

Decided to do a "tweets".

Trade talk has just taken a surpise turn for the worst to my dismay. Is now more like two arrogant kids having a face off. It could get worst. One would think two sensible adults will come to a compromise but life is unpredictable.

This has hit my first level warning. Having 11% returns in 4 months period, is like swimming ahead by 10 laps. So for this phase I will do further profit taking. 

Sold half of my Ascendas-h Tr as I have more than 2 years of dividends. The future dividend loss will be felt.

Sold only the amount increased of Mapletree Ind Tr which I have increased before ex-dividend. It was average up previously in anticipation of better market environment and net net after dividends still have slightly more profits. This is more like de-risk levelling move.

Sold SIA. Just few lots. While is gain ytd. Counter level is slight loss. Is non core so is a counter less to manage. I also decided to release one of my US stock at market price with similar story as SIA.


thanks

Cory
20190506

Cory Diary : Bubble 2019-0502 reflecting strong return in the 4 month periods

Current Market is good for Reits/Trust again with low growth and low rates. Interestingly is good for banks too because of increase rates from past year. DBS bank did well and this helps STI largely with UOB and OCBC close behinds. Even Singtel managed to bounce off from lows.

In a continuation of how individual investment return looks like for dividend investors, I think Bubble Chart is best to depicts the absolute P/L against the yield of the stock at current price. For people who is new to the chart, the size of the bubble is the investment value at current price.

Do note the vertical axis P/L is Realized/Unrealized combine. Most of it is unrealised profit as I hold them for long term dividends.

As you can see Ascendas "Sun" continues to be high up there (higher since last blogged) amid slightly smaller investment size for Kiasi me. The other Ascendas-h Tr did well and has left the pack firmly. So did STI ETF.

Most of the counters show increase profits with market uptrend continuing. The only counter that is slightly negative is ShengSiong which I view it as future black-horse which I accumulate recently. Total dividends so far this year is $11,020 with few more yet included ex-div coming soon. Portfolio Xirr hits 11% using 31 Dec'19 as end date annualized. What this mean is that if the market freeze at this current level till year end, my returns will be about 11%.

If we are to back track to my earlier post, STI continues to move ahead 2 weeks after I last blog about Equity Performance on the link here. https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2019/04/cory-diary-equity-performance-2019-0414.html

Done a calculated risk on my thinking from the link and links within since last year Dec'18, and it paid off handsomely with 6 digits reward for this year 4 month returns alone. This should be the best return within such a short period I have even though most are unrealised gains as I hope to have them for retirement cash-flow needs.

Cheers

Cory
2019-0502