Cory Diary : North Korea Crisis on Stock Market Volatility 2017

During April this year I wrote about non-financial crisis events have minor or short term impact to stock market. To refresh memory here's the ( link.)  Chances are this North Korea War on Words will come to past. While there maybe a small chance on Nuclear Black Swan Event, this is rather hard to predict as we are dealing with two egoistic adult humans.

What I did ? I have to stay invested as dividend investor but did some re-balance on my portfolio. Raised some more cash for opportunity. YTD my dividends have hit $30K. So getting the last $10K may not be impossible task with reduced exposure.

Another reason is after hitting 10% gains this year, I like to gain some buffer to reduce the trough in my cyclic returns across the years even though they are trending up. Hopefully this will give me better results. Here's the link on my annualized returns wrote in Jun'17 ( Link ).Time will tell.


Cory
20170812

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q3 2017 July Update

July month just pasted. We have 5 more months to go. As everyone know, STI has been on winning streak this year. People who are wholly invested in banks expected to record significant gains. How I do so far without investing in them this year ?

Below table is the Interim Q3'17 July result. A further improvement from Final Q2 on link here.
My investment life returns moved up to 7.2%. I thought this is nice despite laden with PS and Bonds.

STI YTD further it' gain to 15.5% so despite Cory returns of 12% YTD, I am still in catch-up mode ..... but the picture is a lot better than start of year with an expanded portfolio from past years. This is also mitigated by Core holding STI ETF which I would not sell easily.

Results were mixed across the portfolio else I would have leveled against STI. Fortunately a number of speculative contra trading helps to improve. Dividends wise, moved up to about 30K for this 7 months. So you can do a rough estimate on my portfolio and gains . :)


Reits
Generally they did well. I have not much complains. Allocations still need some fine-tuning probably. Yield range between 5%-8%.

Neratel
Neratel is a new position. However the result down due to tax. This is a little unfortunate else I would maintain my recent found gains. I still has some confidence in them but we need to watch closely.

Design Studio
The quarter result doesn't look good. Fortunately I locked in some gains (link) which kind of act as a good buffer for the down side. The half year looks so so, again stay nimble.

Singtel
Manage to hold off ok after Ex-dividends. I look forward to reduce debts or better revenue improvement instead of special dividends. So the withholding of the cash from netlink trust ipo for business needs I think is a good move. 


Cory
20170806

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 2Q'2017

Is another profitable period for Sheng Siong. Last time when I blogged about this Supermarket ( link ) on 23rd Feb'17, price was $ 0.955. It moved up to $1.005 before recent Amazon news pull down the stock before recovering at $0.96. There was a div in May'17 of $0.0185. So theoretically speaking, without this news it would have hit more that $1.005 after report.

If Amazon market segment target is Sheng Siong ones, I think it will be a mistake. So I am not so worried about it.  The impact will probably be more on the branding against existing online retailers and certain extend on Super Market like Cold Storage. So i dip for a little more on low.

Dividends

"Declared interim dividend of 1.55 cent per share". Last August it was 1.9 cent. Therefore a reduction. I did note this statement. "After paying the final dividend for FY 2016 in 2Q2017, cash and cash equivalents increased by $6.2m to $69.6m as at 30 June 2017."


Growth

My take is the next few quarters will be more retail space for growth so we will see stronger rev. There maybe a dip due to woodland after closure but if there is, will likely be temporary. From Sheng Siong results presentation, Woodlands closure is now by Oct which means next report 3Q'17 may not have large impact from it.


Risk 
The next level of risk is the China investment. US$6 Million investment. 


DYODD.
Cory
20170729

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170726

STI has been almighty this year. And i start reviewing my portfolio for more stringent safety.
The changes are on my personal trades and those that I can remember offhand. Please DYODD.



HYFLUX 6% PCS

With the run-up this year on this Pref shares and the profit guidance just announced, I decided to clear my little holding I have for 10% returns this year. Net for this counter is slightly negative. The catalyst possibly the sale of Singapore Plant but I decided not to wait.


NetLink NBN Tr

I have expanded my holding in this counter. My take is that annualized yield is reasonable and good cash flow (FCF) should be good for coming quarters. The ducts have long service life and cables probably good for long term. Therefore the depreciation of asset is more for accounting and no impact to FCF. The risk of technology is there but I think is low. Monopoly in retail market is a good plus and the recurring income is nice. Returns of more than 5.x% is good enough.

Cory
20170726

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 2Q17 ( CMT )

Here's the headline today

"CMT 2Q 2017 net property income up 1.2% year-on-year Achieves higher distribution per unit despite closure of Funan for redevelopment"

DPU within expectation. The threat of online shopping on CMT has been mute which has many strategic asset locations to benefit from. Before the result announced, share price has climbed up to $2.00. And Investor will have another quarterly distribution. At current price, is about 5.5% stable yield which is way better than fixed deposits and ofcourse with different risk level. But frankly, if we cannot accept (except) CMT risk, there is not many stocks we can invest in.

The MOS and Catalyst will be Funan. And again management statement on continuing to focus on sustaining DPU is the right one that I agree with because there is good chance it can go lower in 2018/2019 considering the macro environment on malls and the larger leases renewal before Funan is ready. The question is if it does, how much ? Do we buy more in stages (cheaper ?), do we take profit/cut loss or do nothing ? To me ability to sustain is already a good achievement. I also note that shopper traffics are still there and this is good for CMT malls.

Ex-Div in 27th July'17. Collect Dividend first lah. Think later.


Cheers

Cory
2017-0721

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170719

Here's another post on my recent trades but not all I can remember. The last time i post is here link. I try to stay as accurate as i can remember.


ASCENDAS REIT

I have managed to build back and more such that it has become one of my reit core holding. Using my basic TA skill, i thought 2.57 is a nice entry point but I start to dip for it at 2.62 and 2.58. I did sell some to resize my investment amount at 2.63. It now occupies 4%+ of my non-fixed equity. I am so glad to be back and with good 4 digits trading profit buffers. This investment is to plan for my next year returns and support of 6% dividends from it.


OKP

Did a punting on OKP when it dropped but miss the bottom in seconds. ( angry )...  so sold off my holding with some kopi money. I am not familiar with the future impact and feel MOS may not be good enough. This trade is basically for trying.


GLP

If you may know, I profited from recent takeover of GLP. This one is s bit of nerve. I have 12 lots originally. When it dropped to 2.76 prior to the announcement i sold 4 lots to re-size my exposure. Fortunately or so otherwise, the Offer is good. I benefited from the 8 lots remaining. And some from profits from the 4 lots sold. Not too bad for some one who is late into the GLP game just this year. 20% returns for a red dot speculation trade.


Design Studio

My exposure in this counter is quite large. I took some profit when it run up so that I can sleep better. This counter is still quite good considering the 10% dividend level and the company expected to run ok. Don't ask me can the performance be sustained. I don't know, and I am still vested. Just stay nimble I guess.


Cory
20170719

Cory Diary : Singtel 2017-0714

Let's start with some data background of Singtel. I do this fast. Apologize for any error and DYODD.

Since 2013, Singtel has been fluctuating within a big band of $3.3 to $4.5 range. During this time, annual distribution is about 17 cents ( not exact but growing ) which easily totaled roughly 90 cents. Right now the stock price is 60 cent below the top range. And current yield is about 4.4%. Revenue kind of flat.

About S$3B FCF annually. Last year we see a little dip to about dividend support level despite no noticeable increase in capex. As for Netlink Trust, never mind about the regulatory requirement. Netlink Trust IPO comes as a right time for Singtel. At 81 cents, they raised more than $2B which not only cover years of dividend support but also the increase of spectrum cost. On top of this,  $50 M recurring income from it.

I thought this is master stroke on realizing the value of Singtel asset. Considering Singtel retained 24.99%, Netlink still rest securely under Temasek hands. How long can the music last, let's evaluate again later with more quarterly reports.


Cory
20170714

Cory Diary : Accordia Golf Trust 20170707

This post is special. Is a sharing of Q&A with Brenda, Senior Manager, Investor Relations, AGT. Is rather informal so do not put a magnifying glass into it.  I am honored to have an opportunity to chat with Brenda to know the Trust better. Do note this is not an invitation to invest/sell/hold.


Q&A

1. Share about Continue Impairment loss from last Q report

Generally the impact is cashless and more on accounting purposes on P/L.

2. How do you view AGT in 3-5 years periods.

Viewing from coming Olympics context. AGT is more of Middle Class category of golf courses targeting leisure segment. So it won't be in the selection for it. Most of the golfers are locals. The focus is more on how to optimize weekday plays. There is also focus on schools and women to come to the courses.

3. How do we mitigate weather and natural disaster

There is limited thing we could do for weather. However, weather conditions are only short-term. It could be a bad weather year for 2016 while AGT has a warmer weather in 2015 (warmer weather is better for golf). One way is to have driving range. Insurance for natural disaster is financially not viable. The loss is more on revenue due to golf closure rather than any damage to the courses. For example, we closed at maximum 1 week for one of our golf course during the 2016 Kyushu earthquake.

4. Is there plan for expansion

There is loan coming up in august and will be the focus. There is still room for loan(current Loan-to-value is below 29%) and will be the preference, and rights issue is unlikely given the current Unit Price as and when there is expansion after.

5. Dividend distribution expectation

AGT hopes to continue its 100% distribution of Distributable Income Available. Currently, the mandate is to distribute 90% of its Distributable Income.


Cory
20170707

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170703

Here's my current holding.

REITs - This sector has been star performer in first half of 2017. However not all the same. I am fortunate to have quite a number of bright stars here. They easily constitute 40% of my portfolio. Bulk of my dividends hopefully for the years to come.

TELCO - The only possible segment which i feel there is still good room for 2nd half growth. Singtel's Netlink IPO is a catalyst. But Singtel should be more than that.

STI ES3 - I have reduced my holding largely. Nevertheless it is still quite a size-able amount in my portfolio. This move protected some of my earning this year if there is market wide retreat in 2nd half. I hope to have it build back at right price.

BOND/PREFERENCE - Not much except that I have Singapore Saving Bond removed from tracking.
I am still well invested in the SSB.

Global Logistic is the wild card for 2nd half. Let see how it goes. I have 75% confidence.
It will be great if the deal takes off and at good premium.

The Green has been boring and missing much from the run up in this 2nd Q.

Currently looking into Banks, CDG, Jumbo, Keppel, Wilmar and more REITs ....

Cory
20170703

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Final Q2 2017 June Update

Today is the last day of Q2 '17. After my May Month Interim, managed to buy back, and more on Ascendas Reit, and FLT Reit which I earlier sold some this week. Glad with given the chance to fill back the hole I dig in my portfolio before the next REITs reporting season starts. I have also done more trading but it maybe too hard to blog each of them. Portfolio trend is lesser STI Index, due to strong run in banks.

Here's Q2'17 result. A further improvement from interim Q2 on link here.

With STI YTD returns about 12% currently, Cory Q2 returns of 9.8% YTD requires a little more ( excl. Div ) to catch-up. However compared to start of the year, the result has largely improved. Few things did well to improve my returns.

Good
- Regional exposure through Reits
- Singtel impact by 4th Telco is minimal compared to others

Bad
- QAF continue softening this week



Cory
20170630

Cory Diary : AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL REIT - 2

I blogged about Aims Reit exactly 2 months ago. Link here. Since then it has moved up nearly 5%. And this exclude dividends distributed. People is recognizing the return value. At current $1.47 price, the yield is about 7.5%. Still so good. My wish is the reit needs only to maintain their dpu performance.

Considering current investment climate, there is not better alternative that provide good value for money i feel personally. At this price range, I am not buying more as I have quite a significant exposure or so sadly because i feel there is still some room to go up but risk has to be mitigated. And neither am I selling even if the price indeed moves up.

So what would be a possible sell price ? At $1.605, dividend yields go just below 7%. So is not hard to achieve provided investors can understand the long term stability of this reit growth in dpu. What would de-rail my investment plan ? Macro event and the reit significant deterioration in their performance. At the mean time, continue riding the market doing nothing on this counter.


Cory
20170627

Cory Diary : Singapore Savings Bonds experience ( SSB )

This is the website of SSB. http://www.sgs.gov.sg/savingsbonds/Your-SSB/This-months-bond.aspx
Every month SSB will update with new tranche for purchase with appropriate rates as below picture.

Purchase is simple online. I have tested few times using DBS website. Application is $2 each time.
Dividends credited to my DBS saving account after 6 months automatically.

To sell is not hard too as I have tested it literally. However do note your transaction and amount each time you purchase or withdraw as there is no easy access to SSB historical records that you can tell in the website when you sell. Bank statements in the web is backdated to 2 months so provide no helps too. However I do get paper mail statement as equity trades done.

The highest effective interests rate is only if you hold it for 10 years and is quite attractive considering is "risk-less". However if you withdraw like I did, the rates will be reduced per table of the link above and still not bad. There is a limit of 100K even if I want to put more unfortunately.

Unlike traded bond, there is no capital gain or loss. True capital protected in the sense less sovereign risk. Due to SSB nature, in my next dividend and investment reports, I will move them under Cash/Fixed deposit category instead. This will better reflect the right yield and portfolio investment equity returns. Meaning my equity annual dividends report will exclude SSB dividends.

I plan to maximize my allocation surely. It beats Fixed Deposits hand down.


Cory
20170625

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170617

Normally I do not comment much on my short term trades as I do a lot within a year if you have followed. As I have less creative ideas recently, I may as well talk a little on it.

Recently, I sold ASCENDAS REIT. If one who has been following this reit, it always seem to be in all time high (including dividends). Aiming for it is like forever. You will never get it cheap. And you will regret it if you don't. So what I did recently is to buy some only. And when price go up, I bought a little more for more buffer. And that's how I got my 10% profit within 6 months. So why do i want to sell it since is so hard to accumulate it ?

Well .... I do some maths and find this year has significant more run up in share price and that's  like 1.5 years of dividends and yield dropped below 6% so there is potential of much bigger correction to come. Well I could regret later but then money in pocket already and my 40K annual dividends will still be on track. I could have killed the golden goose. Hope not because I do like this one.

Here' the trade. So I am out-of-stock on this one.

(updated for privacy)

If you also remembered, I blogged on needs for oversea earning exposure in reit. One of those is FRASERS L&I TR. I thought is a gem. Luck on my side, the stock run up significantly too. I sold some to par down my stake to original level. We termed it re-balance. I would probably show my trades after the dusts are settled. Double digits gain.

Finally, the next stock I sold is LIPPO MALLS TR shares. This one pains me too because I do like the Indonesia growth story and the REIT seems running well. As you may know is more than 8% yield stock. To relieve my pain, I sold only half. I have some concern on the recent management change in this trust and First Reit. And lock-in 8% gains.

There are more trades made but 3 mentioned here is enough for me today. Cash raised for more battles to come. Sad.


Cory
20170617

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Retracement Self-Learning

Fibonacci Retracement

As usual, I am not an expert in Technical tools. We can however try to use this to time our trade after FA. As dividend investor, getting in low enough is important so that we have a better pie in DPU and Capital gains if any.

Using Fibonacci Retracement can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels.

Thanks to Investing Note again which provide free charting and customization for my learning. https://www.investingnote.com

Again, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example again, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines too ?

As bad news came in last quarter report, we returned to below $0.70. Will it get worst. I bet there is good chance to retrace to $0.65 based on MACD further guidance. And this level maybe good entry point for me but we can decide later.

Cool ?


Cory
20170613

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Extensions Self-Learning

Fibonacci Extensions

First to say I am no expert and trying to learn by myself Fibonacci Extensions. Why ?

Simply it is one of few key tools we can time our sell trades. For people who are not new to stock trading, there will be time when our stock just runaway after we sold. So when to sell can be useful. When stock hits high when is best time to sell ? Valuation point ? Macro condition ? Tool ? Tips ? Supports and Resistances ?

Using Fibonacci Extensions can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. There is no need to modify below because is so complete on the definition I feel. Surely is much easier to understand if we have some background on Fibonacci Retracement indicator.

Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move. The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%.

Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move.

The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%. Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.

One useful tool I used is in Investing Note which provide free charting and customization for example adding 138.2% line. https://www.investingnote.com

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

As reminder, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines ? Beauty of nature isn't it, or so to speak since I do have to kind of find the fit into the chart. I have manually added the 138.2% line as I thought it can be important reference.

The blue handles are the key points I use to extrapolate the chart in fiibonacci-cally way ... :)
And they are near good volume as well.

As bad news came in last quarter report, we almost return to 100% range around $0.695. Which kind of happen but only after ex-dividend. If good news has come and hopefully next quarter report, $0.828 or realistically 0.82 (around 161.8%) about range is the resistance point to sell. Of course this has to overcome my 138.2% resistance first.

Exciting ?


Cory
20170611

Cory Diary : What does XIRR 6.8% Annualized return looks like ?

When we have $10,000 and annual returns of like 5%, it seems to take forever to achieve financial freedom. However Freedom is about going through the learning experiences. The anxiety of market dynamics. The building up of portfolio. The compounding of what one has.

Here's a chart of 6.8% Annualized growths mean in green.

Not going to lie is easy but is not improbable either.

Talking to myself mode. Continue to stay nimble, invest what I can sleep on, cut loss, study financial report, use a bit of TA, don't go on margin, reasonable margin of safety, logical diversification and don't gamble in rubbish stocks. Stock tips from forums, blogs, analysts, friends and relatives are just a dream for me to dream.


Cory
20170610

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation 20170604

My heart screaming to write something today and decided to do a clean up / review my asset allocation.

Here's the pic.

From the chart, if we are to total up MMF and Deposits, that 26%. MMF is Money Market Fund ready for investment. If I am to surrender my Insurance, that will boost to 31% which matches my Equity allocation. However I am unlikely to do that. Nevertheless, this is the War Chest. At 26%, is still a little high. I need to lower Deposits allocation to 20% but may need to reserve this bullet.

Bonds and Preference 13% provides a low yield on the whole. I maybe able to squeeze something for better later but for now it stays and provide the stability to the assets.

Overall Investment allocation I would consider Equity, Property and Bonds/Pref which totaled 53%.
If some may remembered ( Link ), my Cash/FD was at 34% and Equity 22% about 4 months ago. Current allocation is way better and met way above my target and allow me to capture this year upside nicely.

The first 5 months have been great for equity holders mostly. Will Portfolio continues to grow till 2017 ends ? I believe there is still a little leg to go. Will have to stay nimble and watch for major market turning if any. Touch wood.


Cory
20170406

Cory Diary : The Law of Growth - Population

Singapore Population growth has seen some increase prior to the last election. Since then we have seen a more gradual growth. I would say outcome of the last election result in securing the 70% votes.

I personally have been a proponent of quality of life rather than GDP growth. But is when the growth starts to slow down and stock market of local dependent economy starts to pinch that we start to feel the impact of it because one of the most important metric to watch for growth is Population Growth.

Let's face it. Singaporeans are not replacing themselves. If we are not changing, it will be 20 years of lost growth like what we are seeing in Japan. For this, who suffers the most ? The future generations that has to support the growing grey population. Japan is a country we need to carefully understand and study.

Japan Population

While I have not been in the country for most of the time, there has been constant barrage on the foreign influx policies. The constant breakdown of the MRT is not helping. The move to privatize is the right one. And I miss this one. More HDBs are needed to absorb the population increase. More Hospitals too. All this takes time to build up.

Same time interestingly, we have reduction in schools which means theoretically fewer teachers are needed. Again this is the outcome of lowered population growth forecast with gradual increase. A good example of mid class job losses and the dependent/supporting industry employment and income that comes with it such as rentals, basic consumption, transportation, telco, flights etc.

I specifically reserve the last segment to those that still has heartburn on the needs of population increase. ( below charts)

United States Population

Even mighty Americans do this too despite their innovation and economic scale and success. Maybe that's one key reason why we seen DJIA hitting 20K. Sorry Trump for taking some of your credit !


Cory
20170528

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170527

Charting in Excel is quite fun. Just figure out I can do a reverse of my Radar Chart. Be warned, will need to take a new dimension at looking it. The reverse radar overcomes concentration in the center and put more emphasis on stocks that occupies higher allocation than the others in the middle.

My trades already hit 74 YTD which is about half year mark and I am enjoying the process of allocation and divestment.

Increased my SSB ( Bond ) allocation with new funds. For more diverse and stable income. Upped Ascendas and Lippo Reits some. And started a small allocation  in AGT and Parkway Reit. Decided to remove FEHT.

Halcyon Agri removed. Commodity is still not in my blood. Cut loss less than 5k.
Took some profit on STI Index and Global Logistic to balance my loss. This lowered my Banks exposure more. Net changes bring up my portfolio yield some and laid the ground work for next year dividends.

XIRR YTD 6.9% excluding structured investment.(Book closure 29th Dec '17)
All-in-all I am having fun in the market place.

Risk anticipation will be market reaction to interest rate hikes which i have no control even though logically should not impact Reits much. Fact is for the past year Reit stock price has generally moved up and market experts are wrong again. Will Reits continues the uptrend .... better not unless we got better yields else we may see volatility.


Cory
20170527

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance - Part 2

I feel like very old man keep reminding myself about pitfalls in investment with data. Because many experts out there are giving questionable data and I need to make my own judgement including when I read my own blog in context. And I encourage people always do the same. Don't take word at face value.

Part 1 here's the link
http://corylogics.blogspot.tw/2017/05/cory-diary-time-dependent-performance.html

2nd Part is the continuation of STI performance being marketed. As said earlier, the common figure of 7% annualized (including div) is at this time frame.

If we are to use a time machine and zoom back to Oct'2007, someone will by harping STI giving more than 10% annualized returns ! Why ? Let me show you using STI returns on this period since 1987.

Yes is 11.5% annualized returns. So why suddenly in 2017 period people market long term is now 7% ? Because this long term return is movable !

Future STI market data will continuously move the needle of Annualized returns of STI. And is not small amount. As above is -40% returns. Future of STI annualized,  I would say that very heavily depends on Singapore Economy. We all have a stake in our country (or residence) future to make it bright and then STI will be Brighter.


Cory
20170521