Cory Diary: Reading up on Challenger

Notes taken as i read the AR. Three months Ended 31 Dec 2014 QvQ Comparison

• Revenue : 11% gains. 400k more profit than 2013. A nice 1.43 cents EPS from 1.32 on the backdrop of lower YoY. Do note that the full year revenue reduction actually comes from both Singapore and Malaysia geographical segments. A nice surprise that this Q beats prior year.

• Rental : Increased about 500K. A major cost on profitability.

• Operation: Stable inventory level and operation cash flow. Some capex investment noticeable.

• Management: Propose dividend of 1.25 cents. There's indication management is well grasp of the business climate and trying to innovate.

At 46 cents price level, that's more than 9% earning. Based on 2.35 cent full year dividends, 5.1% dividend yield.

Local Stores are pretty numerous now and oversea expansion did not work well. I do not have the indication that we will see quick result from new activities nor do i expects significant impact for the next few Qs. While staff cost at the mean time can by curtailed, the malls rental cost cannot.

Decided to sell and monitor for the time being. I hope to be back.

Cory

23rd Feb'15

Cory Diary : Perils of Currency Wars

Noticed a dip in Singapore Dollar strength recently and took the opportunity to do some currency change. In fact i did one more yesterday. With the announcement of slower rate of strengthening, the first impression is we are on the same direction gradient path, just less steep. Relative to USD, we have been weakening for some time but not against currency like other Asian Currencies. Maybe is due more to the Euro$ weakening which S$ likely to have exposure too.

Here's my trades.

S$76 is the saving if i have done my first trade a day later. Don't get me wrong ! I am still happy considering a few weeks ago the rate was 24.13 and would have cost me NT$9126. That's a cool S$393 saving for a S$10K trade alone. That's also a free 4% income increment in S$ for almost one point shift in the exchange rate. I hope it will last forever. ( Sorry ! fellow country man. Less vacations for you )

The writing is on the wall with lower economic strength and should have sense that but i doubt many experts have the courage to say out loud. Couple with lower oil price driving out inflation, i should have anticipate the move but due to complexity of the world economics and abundance of things i need to think about is on hindsights i should. Who would have predict the NT$ (A Manufacturing Economy) whose direct competitors are likes of Japanese and Koreans Industries will strengthen against S$. The only obvious time i remember is during the 2008 GFC where NT$ tag closely to US$ and therefore strengthened against S$ relatively.

Will S$ weaken further ? Probably not, as the Taiwanese Gov will be pressured to weaken as well.

At the mean time ...

Cory

29th Jan 2015

Cory Diary : Portfolio Segments

Thanks to Tony Robbins new book called MONEY Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom, I get to know Ray Dalio. He has strong believe of 4 seasons portfolio that can weathers across the economic cycles at all times.

Here’s the asset allocation that Dalio came up with for this strategy:

30% Stocks
40% Long-Term Bonds and 15% Intermediate-Term Bonds
7.5% Gold and 7.5% Commodities

Here's mine.

Cory Portfolio

Structured : Preference Shares and Bonds.
Ray's bond  ~55% in total. If i include relative higher fixed returns from  RMB and AUD, probably about 25-30% range which is about half from it.

Commodity: This is a little tricky to gain exposure to it.Using commodity and energy related counters from my stock equities assuming their close relation to represent the segment, i am not far off in percent wise. This do reduce my equity portfolio volatility indirectly.

Four Seasons

Gold : Investment is virtual with reputable banks. Why single out gold from commodity can be easily referred to rationale on why National Banks hold Gold. In this segment i am pretty low (1.5%) compared to four season portfolio (7.5%).

Stocks : Align in percentage term after deducting commodities and energy related counters.

Cory Portfolio Re-Calibrated

So how do i measure up after re-calibrating my definition and removing other cash components ?


Conclusion

I can see that my portfolio has slightly higher volatility and less down side protection with fewer gold for higher chance of better returns.

Few questions in my minds. I would presume Ray based off US currency which i am not and secondly what if we have hyperinflation, will this strategy continues to work ?



Cory
24 Jan 2015

Cory Diary : Excited of 2015 Entry

A number of bets in 2014 are for 2015. There are still some tasks to follow through. If everything works as planned, good performance at least in the 1st half of 2015 should be expected. Why I say that ?

The Good News

Low Oil Price will be good for the Economy. From automobile to plastics. America continues it recovery path and interest rate will be low. More lands are released for Industrial Purposes. Populations expect to continue to increase. With Property and COE at relatively lower level, larger saving will be churned for equity investments.

The Bet

Went deep in a penny stock in 2014. Deep red in oil related. Added energy counter into my portfolio segment. Done an average down on one with calculated risk. Continue to bet on Retail Strengths on stocks riding our Singapore Success Story.

The Ugly

Will continue to monitor Property and Commodity trends. S-Chips will continue to be avoided no matter what as i do not want my 2015 to be ruined by the risk. No IPOs too. Continue to be sceptical with shipping counters.

The Plan

Portfolio needs increase in Financial segment representation. A stronger REITs present probably as well. Same time i like to drive more depths into existing vested counters without testing my nerve limits. Divest those with weaker fundamental and dividend returns that do not support capital protection.

S$40K Dividend target as anything much more is likely on higher risk investments. Well there's a catch ! After totalling historic yield is at best $37K. Though i can decrease my cash reserve but i feel it will takes stronger reason than achieving passiveness goal to dip into my war funds. By the way i did 96 trades last year and there still won't be a plan to monitor this year. Happy 2015 !

Cory

4th Jan '15

Cory Diary : Spending

One of the most darning task to me is to track my expenses. Tried a number of times to track it but just do not have the patience to continue despite being a fan of spreadsheet with the formulas everywhere to compute my investments and net worth almost instantaneously with currency fluctuation, equities, bank saving to pensions.I do spend little on myself materialistically. I do buy computers and gadgets occasionally. Some travels, books and gifts, relatively expensive restaurants, taxi, good massage and parental allowances...da da da de da.

Then it dawn on me that since i have high saving rate naturally, there is no need to track them at all. Silly me !

In 2014, my Net worth increase is more than my Annual Salary Income including AWS. Technically speaking i save every penny i earned. I did this before but what so special for 2014 is not due to my investment returns but Annual Variable Bonuses. To top it off i have a strong increment as well for a person planning to retire early....

You see, I have been putting in some amount of "Strategic Investment" into my work and was duly rewarded by my bosses for leading some alignment tasks and supporting transformation works. Though this pulled me off from focusing in my investments and some white hairs to show. However there's some synergy moving my portfolio to be more passive based which should works out well in years to come.

Privately though i do have a problem of over saving (by nature) which needs to be fixed in 2015. A good problem. :)











Cheers

Cory
2 Jan'15

Cory Diary : Dividend Returns

When i started investing many years ago it was for the gamble and quick money. Dabbled in Warrants in the days when they are extremely popular. Made some good money ~ (updated for privacy)  in/out trading them despite my business work schedule. It was days where the market only knows how to climb.

Danger of Warrants

I did fell once where my "Tang" expired and went with my $1500 in smoke. I remembered my broker screams at me pondering whether i know what the hell it is but i kind of laughed it off in my head. I learned later that 6 months before expiry, i need to be careful. She is still my broker today.

As i got bolder over the years, i plough into larger part of my little saving. Those days I had colleagues who lamented to me how desperate they are to get into the market but they just do not have enough saving. I learned from it.


Soon after, i got burned in an S-Chip counter.16K lost LOL. Why i laugh ? Well, by then i learn to read announcements and annual reports. Despite all the indications that is a "FRAUD" even from public announcements, i continued to hold. I was hoping that the CEO can't be that stupid to give silly excuses. I learned it does.

As my salary goes up, so are my knowledge in the market. My investment grows till 2008 GFC Epic. Even then i was numbed to the daily horror news. I learned about market timing.

S-Chip Scandals

2008 GFC

When the market recovered, my 2009 profits doubled my 2008 losses. Then i entered 2011 and see the how rocky the market can be and chance encounter with Value Investing. I learned to rebalance my portfolio. By then my portfolio has already skyrocketed with my saving and profits.

Value Investing

Is only in 2012 that i really think about stability and more predictable growing returns to support my retirement. This is tougher to grasp for me but i learn more about Reit and the power of strong business model that can protect my investments.

Dividend Play

Learning never stop as i continue to seek new ideas and knowledge. I have become less risk averse actually. And Fd, Index, Wider Portfolio, Bonds and fixed instruments, Large Blue Cap, Currency Balance and Reits have a good present today in my investment. I am still working and mind you ! Is great to see bonus. :)

Last but not least, my Dividends. Manage to swing it back to a little new high.
Looking forward to 2015.

(updated for privacy)

Cory
27 Dec 2014

Cory Diary : SEMBCORP IND

Oil ! Oil ! Oil! Crashed. Many people may have thank Saudi Arabia that we have an Oil Crisis except this time is for lower price. As a matter of fact, Shale Oil and Gas is the cause of main disruption with maturing technology that break OPEC monopoly who works in "cahoots" with few other key players that not always play fair.

Is there gem right now ? Let's me try to investigate SEMBCORP IND today.

Capital Gain
The worst SBI price is about 2.11 during 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is not. A lower oil price is good for the economy. We have 10 years of growth when oil price stays low. However it can be a nervous investment for the new investors who never see it for Oil Support Industry. The Monthly Chart indicate 4.0-4.1 range as resistance. And appears reached. Weekly Chart will be in the region of 3.89. Down side seems limited i guess but market sentiments are hardly predictable. Volume is weakening.

Dividend Yield
2014 declared dividend ~ 0.22. That's on the high side i feel. Let's MOS to 0.15.
3.5% yield roughly. That's 35k for a Million for a rather consistent performing counter.

Business Segment
This is not fly by night company.

Sembcorp Industries was incorporated in Singapore on 20 May 1998 to act as the 
holding company for the merger between Singapore Technologies Industries 
Corporation (STIC) and Sembawang Corporation. On 22 July 1998, it assumed its 
present name. The merger was effective on 3 October 1998.

i. Utilities


ii. Marine & Offshore Engineering
This business focuses principally on repair, building and conversion of ships 
and rigs, and offshore engineering.


iii. Environmental Management


iv. Industrial Parks

After Thoughts
Every crisis can be an opportunity. Will this be one of them ?
Long term with a back mirror will we regret ?
What's the down side ?
Can it be a long term hold and forget ?
Time to nibble slowly ?

Here's my novice notes today. Hope you like it. May we prospers till we go to dust.


Cory
17th Dec 2014

Cory Diary : SAIZEN REIT

In my quest for yield, a reit that caught my eye again is Saizen Reit. What's interesting is the recent softening of it's price due to the depreciation of the Yen mainly. 6 cents move is a year dividend ... oh a little pain..

Few questions come into my mind. Is there opportunity to gain/recover from this ?

Impact to S$ returns

"Hedged the distribution payments for the six-month financial period ending 31 December 2014 and for the six-month financial period ending 30 June 2015 at JPY81.9/S$ and JPY85.6/S$ respectively."

This hedging is rather important though not cheap. Looks like they did it well considering rate is about 91 currently. I do not see dividend issue for Mar'15.

Property Yield
About 1/4 of the portfolio in Sapporo: Prices known to increase in that area but Cap Rate maybe mute.

Age of the Reit properties are not young so i would perceive rental yield stable considering the net property income in last report shows slight decrease in JPY Q/Q not proportional to Revenue decrease.
S$- denominated bank balances help a little from the Warrant proceeds leftover.

Trend
Revenue has been decreasing about 2% quarterly. Operating expenses increased slightly from the net property income of lQ'15 report.

"The decrease in gross revenue was due mainly to a year-on-year decrease in occupancy rates."

Leverage Potential
Ability to access low fixed loan rate is a plus for higher leverage considering their returns are relatively stable.

Moving Forward
One thing to watch is the the weekend election and what this means to Saizen. Abe wins mean more weakening of the Yen therefore more hedging needed. Delay in consumption tax hike is good news.


Cory
14th Dec 2014

Cory Diary : STI Index

If you have yet notice, STI Index ended this week 3324.39. STI Jan 1st Jan'14 was 3167.430. That's mean about 5% returns. If we include roughly 3% dividends conservatively, that's 8% for 2014. This is despite of Current Oil Bear, Interest Rates going up, Property Curbs and Commodity Crash.

Quite amazing huh ? Do your math and tell me am I right ? So why ? why ? why ? why ?Maybe is the Singapore Story or thanks to the liquidity.

How many of us can beat that on annualized basis ?
Are your Unit Trusts beating this values. What do you think ?
How about those who put your money with Private Fund Managers after cost ?  How do they perform ?
Do you have concern with scam or time bomb ?

Things i like about STI Index so far is as follow

1. No rights issue
2. Reasonable Dividends ( Cover Core Inflation )
3. Capital Gains annualized results are strong ( Cover Inflation )
4. Low management fee
5. No manager risk
6. Transparent Tracker
7. Singapore Dollar
8. Participate in Singapore Key Industries
9. Risk Spread across companies
10. Do not need active management
11. Do not need a lot of money to invest


Cory
7th Dec 2014

Cory Diary: 2014 Interim Review

Interim Financial Report

My Investment Portfolio is made up of Equities, Fixed Deposit, Preference Shares, Bonds and Gold. Spread across various currencies according to their risks/returns which helps me ride over market turbulence with peace of mind.

Equity ~ over 20 counters of Blue, Reits, SME and PS of various weightage. Currently this year returns are to better Equity Dividends. FDs help some.

Cash level is relatively high for opportunities and because as i am still working which afford me to have lower investment returns. Pension, Property, Insurance and CPF are Bonus.


AUD and GOLD
AUD$ weakened 2-3% roughly. After higher interests, return is flat. Lower GOLD price on the back of stronger US$ that my GOLD denominated. Acquire more RMB$ few months ago to put into higher FD as i do not like to hold too much NT$. If i have them it will be converted to other currencies or lock away in FD which are about 1.4% now. Yes is still miserable.

DIVIDENDS
Glad to break last year record before Dec ~(updated for privacy)

EQUITY
Positive but slightly below STI index return due to more low caps. Took a few risky positions which are not delivering as hoped. Net net including dividends, annualized returns around 10% for the past 10 years

CURRENCIES
This are exposure not just cash. Example Gold invested in US$ Denomination, i will have it paper translated to S$ in percentage term for exposure in US$.

Net Worth
Back on track to new highs after recent months turbulence. I expect this to continue to go on till i retire.


thanks
Cory
22 Nov '14

Cory Diary: My Home

Something strikes me today after reading AK's comment in his post on singapore property.

If I am to buy a home say S$1M, and a year later the price comes down by S$100K. Will I be sad ? Ofcourse i will, silly ! But sad due to what is the critical issue here. Well i am sad because my home value drops 100k. But why should i when is a place to stay other than being sad for paying 100K more. Someone will pay more someone will pay less in any trade. If i am to sell it 100k lesser 5 years later, i will be getting cheaper price from others of another property anyway. 

If i got my home and price shoot up say 100K in a year, should i be happy then ? Why not, 100k take someone years to save ! But i cannot realise it since is a place to stay so what so big deal about it then ?

Well, i can sell it 5 years later and if price holds 100k up, i will be good. But then i will be buying another property from others at higher price too aren't we ?

And here comes the fundamental question if you haven't realise it yet. Higher property price only make the rat race course larger for your children and you. And a lot of paper work at your expense.

thanks

Cory

14th Nov 2014

Cory Diary: How much is considered too much cash for rotting?

A friend pose this interesting question to me over my concern with inflation eating into our hard earn money. To point out how serious the problem is, i have it structured below.

Let's think of a scenario. I have idle cash of $1M. Considering inflation of 3%, that's 30K loss annually. We know how rich we are is how much we save. Using this basis, if I save 30K annually from my monthly earning, i am just working my arse off just to level up my networth. The curse of being a millionaire ?

Let's go further. For those who are more financially awakened, potential returns may average 5% annually. $1M sitting idle is 50K loss. Has risk adversity reached a new height in stupidity ?

Not surprising for those Savvy Investor who hits 10% return. That's 100K average. If you have this money and they are not working because you are so busy with work, do yourself a favor, sit down and do some Maths. What the hell am I talking ? A Savvy Investor will not have this problem.

Now where am I ...

Cory

9th Sept 2015

Cory Diary : CPF Minimum Sum 155K

The minimum sum has been increasing for years. Based on my earlier rough estimation is certainly moving faster than the inflation. My logic is that there is an initial growth phase to close the gap as the current minimum sum lags significantly behind the minimum needs for basic retirement. Once this is met or politically so, i would expects the the growth to follow inflation trend.

Singapore is one of the lowest tax countries in the world. This do not happen by chance but by the expectation that retirement is mainly self-funded, and CPF is a commitment to the society that we meet our minimum obligation.

Considering the retirement needs in future dollars, releasing CPF money will not going to help much to our financial wealth being. This is not hard to deduce considering a million dollar without investment will easily be expended in 15 years in earlier article. Even with 2.5%-4% returns, the minimum sum will not be enough to meet my personal retirement needs. If we understand the concept, will people still care about not meeting the minimum sum less the purpose is to withdraw them asap, and this can be worrying.

The logic is simple after i did my own lifestyle count. By the time I retire, my  investable should be at least 10x of the minimum sum of today money. If i am not achieving that yet, is time i find a way to earn more and be Accountable for my own financial well being before is too late.

I start to draw out all my investments. And soon realised that CPF money sits very well as the guaranteed portion of my portfolio that provides stable and min. baseline returns. Withdrawing CPF is certainly not an answer to it. Is our money safe ? Last i check our government prints their own money so this should not be an issue. Is better to be locked away till 65 from anyone or even myself. The monthly withdrawal feature provides an additional layer of protection for my golden years. Once we put further thoughts into it, CPF is actually a safety net insurance scheme at national level.


Cory
13th July'14

Cory Diary : Retirement Amount

Retirement Amount

One of the misconception about saving is how long it can last once we retired.
Assuming no investment and just plain saving bank. See Table 1.

Table 1 : Without inflation adjustment

Above is a simulation without inflation. How will this impact me ?
Assuming 3.5% inflation rate, the monthly absolute amount increases as Table 2.

Table 2 : With inflation adjusted

So how long can my S$1M last actually ? See Table 3.

Just  below 16 years. After that i am on my own ...

For those who are curious on whatif Inflation hits 5%. The answer is 14 years.
That's how long S$1,000,000 can last.


Cory
22nd June 2014

Cory Diary : Property Crazy Question

Let say i have enough budget for either.
Apply value investing and quality of life, which should i go ?

Property 1 : Condo (New)
Region: RCR
Area: 850 sqf
Price: S$1 M
Rental Value: S$3000
Proximity: School, NE MRT/CIRCLE

This leave me with heavier loan, small family, less money for equity and need more loan for car.

Property 2: HDB Re-Sale (10 yrs)
Region: NE Region
Area : 1200 sqf
Price: S$600K
Rental Value: S$3300
Proximity: School, Coffee Shop, Supermarket, NE MRT/LRT

This leave me with 400K to do stock investment, larger family, major renovation and a car.

Cory
20 April'14

Cory Diary : Dividend Dimension

Why Dividends ?

Keep my CEOs on their toes
Best proof of returns
Income sustainability

(updated for privacy)

No turning back on the Twin Pillars Strategy - Dividends & Growths.
Q1 2014 has been slow due to divestment of some Reits counters. Of course is still in the earlier part of the year. Building portfolio back up with strong cash companies. I will have to catch up to beat 2013 dividends but not going to lose an arm or leg for it.

Cory

17th April 2014

Cory Diary : Contemplating Retirement

Retirement has been in my mind for a long time. If i make that move there is no turning back. Two key concerns in the back of my mind.


Net Worth Hurdle

First to lose is the monthly income. In addition to that, bonuses which always pull my net worth a mile. Will I be able to stomach possible decrease psychologically ?

Left is the investable net worth chart captured over the years.What can we understand from the annualized return rates compared to investment return rates.








Social Hurdle

The connection with colleagues.What can i do so that my experiences will not be lost. How can I continue to be relevant to the society ?


Cory
23 Mar 2014

Cory Diary : Reits 2014

Despite my preference for "fixed income" and being a "landlord", the leverage mechanism of Reits and Management have been trying this days. Facts - Reits are mainly in downtrend and is hitting home with starts of QE. Interest Rates are not even in the picture yet. Things will be tough this year as well if the strong ones are also doing fund raising.

There are still few gems out there but is not a guaranteed profitability net-net. Meaning after Rights, Placements, Dividends and Market Value, are we better off is a big question mark.

Managers are securing funding to lower their gearing. Meaning no additional returns from the funding exercise. Isn't this much worst than investing in a lower yield property than current DPU ? Not sure i should classify it as one of ultimate worst sins.

The Property Market has hit the ceiling. We should be expecting book value hitting north but the market pricing seems ahead on that giving us a value proposition that is actually sliding with lower price and value.

I still view Reit a key segment in my portfolio but there is also a time for everything. At the mean time, do look at the trend chart and draw your own conclusion.

Happy Reit'ing !

Cory
19th Feb 2014

Cory Diary : Part 2 on Base Lining

I just read a thread and decided to think aloud.

Here's the background.

Someone bought Sabana and now sitting at a loss. Advisor came and said this.

If you have buy at a low last year around 90. Is ok to hold on. However those who buy at high, meaning lately, chance of return is remote.

Saying it another way.

Since you have capital gain when you enter at 90, is ok to lose those gains. Those who got recently be prepared for further loss if continue to hold.

Hello ? Hello !!

To hold or not should not have dependency on price entered at different times.
This is why I need to base line my portfolio to avoid falling into the feel "rich" gap.

Cory

8th Feb 2014

Cory Diary : Base Lining my Stock Investments

What do i mean by that ?

The goal of investment is to be able to generate more and more cash. We do not want to go up and down equally or similarly. In the long run, is useless and time wasted. And worst, loses all your capital.

In summary, base lining my profits/losses is resetting my Capital in a regular manner. A fresh start and perspective into my portfolio. And re-evaluating all my holdings.

For example I have 100K capital. Earned 30K by the end of year. In the new year, I have 130K capital. Zero out my profits/losses in every counters. Doing so i am basically treating 130K as my own money from my "saving" account as though is a fresh fund. I do this annually.

Upon doing that, I am resetting my stock initial investment cost to the price of the new year in a new page. And then i re-start to re-evaluate my holdings at this cost level which then kickoff a re-balancing of my portfolio.

This put my thought into a more balance approach with no baggage. To know whether we have execute this mental method successfully, you would have forgotten your initial buy price of prior years like me do.

Ok ! You can call me absent minded. :P


Cory
1st Feb 2014