Cory Diary : Tracking a counter trading information

Often we rely on broker apps to track trading information. For me I like to have key information all in a page that I can work with on my notebook with what i needs in excel. This give me a good view o how to plan and be successful in managing my portfolio.

This counter is in a group page. As you can see, only Microsoft as they are grouped by counter. Won't be going through the details. Basically it track forex, initial cost, cash holding type when sold, YTD P/L, Lifetime P/L, average cost YTD, Profit yield by XIRR or Initial cost depending on situation, each transaction and corporate action, recent dividend history, profit types etc ...

The good thing about in excel setup is that we can change the format as we wish and link them to multiple sheets for automation for charting, net worth etc. I also use this to cross check broker settlement information and cashflow. The whole setup is simple as it uses standard excel functionality.

Cory

2022-0331

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation 2022-0324

Market continues to be volatile but appears Tesla most pressing task which is Giga Berlin finally is opened for business. Probably thanks to Ukraine War, the need for energy saving car like EV has becomes a priority for Germany. This help to swing the US segment back up significantly as this help protect projected Growth of Tesla beyond 2023 in-addition to Giga Texas. 

Next as mentioned in previous article, finally cleared off the baba stock which is less than 1% of the portfolio at a loss. This close[d a chapter on my excursion with Chinese company. No plan to return near term despite recovering market and this restricted total foreign stock allocation to only 11.2%.

Banking wise managed to increase to 4.9% from 3.3% allocation in Nov'21 ( link ). Want to be careful here due to elevated price of the banks compared to a year ago. Window of opportunity seems to have closed as Fed is getting hawkish on rate increase.

Portfolio improved significantly this week and now less than -1% down YTD. In comparison to STI index basically similar story as in 2021 due to large run-up of the banks. Dividend projection is now $63k in which there are 6.8% war chest available from investment accounts.

This are the key highlights.

Cory

2022-0323

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Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Update 2022-0318

The buzzword this month is STAGFLATION. Per Google, persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy. Interesting there aren't high unemployment yet mixed with Great Resignation Wave which is kind of a pull event. Interestingly inflation is up due to supply issue of Covid with added dimension due to Ukraine War on Oil & Gas. Raising rate quickly will not be going to help much instead cost more to service the debts.

What's this implied is they are two separate problem and when it is conflicting, is there alternative or to focus on one first. Inflation hits all whereas unemployment hits on unemployed. Since there aren't significant unemployment the focus will likely be inflation and this could mean persistent rate rise in gradual manner such that we do not wake up the unemployed monster. Well, the Fed could still increase the pace if they have confidence that we are far from it. However it seems inflation is unavoidable just mitigate. From yesterday Fed decision on 25 bps hike this implied is better to have higher inflation than recession which kind of make sense. The market rally. This is a critical milestone and I feel is the right decision to support incremental changes.

Few key changes reflected into the Pie Chart. Firstly exercised some of company share awards. This has been valued zero in net worth. Have been doing this exercising routine so that in the event of unexpected this sizeable amount will not be in limbo. The increased cash expanded the Fixed Deposit allocation.

Secondly, the investment Account reduced some by actions to max out Multiplier allocation this month for 3% target. This stream of additional income gained traction hitting 2% for last month. Not a lot but this help to build up low risk segment of the portfolio and allows me to sleep well.

On Equity side portfolio year to date is down 2.8% (updated end of market US time). Decided to sell remaining baba shares just a day before it gallops down again therefore zero investment in china now. The Chinese Tech stocks have  huge rally this 2 days but I won't be entering back due to lack of conviction. This will fill some war chest as some funds have been used to raise bank allocation to 6.7% for a more balance portfolio. Is clear that we cannot ignore to have some stake in the bank despite digital banking risk.

On the property investment side there is increment increase in the $psf transaction but as the volume is low decided not to reflect into the net worth. Rental market do see sizeable increase in rent which seems to indicate genuine demand for housing after the last curb on property. So any further increase in ABSD or TDSR seems punishing people who really needs them. 

CPF has grown some after doing another round of top-up to max out CPF allocation. This 2 years are important for my age because SA allocation is at it's highest through VC3AC process. The only top up possible now VCMA or Child CPFs. I think there is no hurry considering there can be good opportunity in the market which has been lows for some periods.

Lastly, with the significant increase in FD/Multiplier segment, I should start to plan to reduce my saving cash. We will see if the investment cash runs out.

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0318

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Cory Diary : How long will Ukraine War last ?

What is the scenario where everything can go wrong in an Invasion ?

We probably can see it in this Ukraine War.

Russian armoured column fleeing after a few hits

United

Putin managed to unite OTHERS. ( Sarcastic )

EU is United

US Democrats and Republicans are United

Ukraine is United

Crumbling Economic Sanctions on Russia

Germany Freeze new oil pipeline from Russia indefinitely

Ukraine received thousands of advanced Anti-Tank and Anti-Air Weapons from many countries

Russia under significant economic sanction from many governments and private sectors

EU agreed to allow Ukraine to join

Russian oligarchs asset frozen

Russia Oversea fund freezes for war reparation

Foreign companies pulling out of Russia

Russian Citizens in foreign countries in Europe were discriminated

Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Paypal Blocked in Russia

Observed

Russia military equipment are quite old

Russia military supply lines are cut

Russia units are not fighting as a force

Many bombs hit civilians targets

Significant air, armor and personnel losses just in 2 weeks

Russian soldiers are poorly equipped and poor morale

Dirty strategy of attacking civilians are well documented

Communication Devices

First time Star-link enabled to support Ukraine. Never before in a war.

Many footages of the war are captured by mobile phones showing many casualties of Russian Aircrafts, tanks and soldiers.

A lot of Propaganda on both sides

This War can end quickly but will this be a wasted opportunity ?

Cory

2022-0313

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Cory Diary : Russian invasion of Ukraine - Elite Comm Reit

Ukraine has more than 200k servicemen. For Russia with their military power and size to send less than this number of soldier to invade Ukraine, and splitting their army into three routes seems arrogance resulting them failing their military goals so far. And now with Ukraine activating reservists it seems tough for Russia to fight without significant loss of lives even if they win. Putin has started to use cluster bombs, hitting government building with missiles and deploying thermobaric weapons seem steps of desperation. This will be horrific to Ukraine Civilians as such weapons are indiscriminate and a serious war crime. I wonder which soldiers will obey such orders to kill civilians senselessly in this modern time. Even if Russia win is a lose.

Interestingly, the invasion also resulted in 10 Yr bond yield crushing back to Jan level as people rush for safe assets. Reits started to rebound despite Inflation reeling hard. USD creeping up too. The bank prices that have been spiking past months have already entered discount modes. This allow me to kickstart collection but seems I am a little too eager as my position has increased to more than 5% of the Equity Portfolio. I need to hold my gun tighter when the probability or rate increase likely to be strong ?

So how is Europe Properties impacted or mitigated ?

Elite Commercial Trust

Regearing announced. There is some rent reduction in 11 of the 100 properties. A huge relieve to shareholders as they are now extended to year 2028.

"Together with the 31.6% of the total portfolio by GRI currently with straight leases through to 2028 with no lease break options, this means that 78.6% of the leases by total portfolio by GRI(1) will run straight to 2028 without any lease break options"

However there is also some investment required as follow. This could improve the valuation of the properties such that dividend will not take significant hit over the 3 years period if they go via additional loan.

The only risk left which I am personally concern is exchange rate risk on DPU nevertheless is a good deal overall.

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0302

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.