One thing good about internet to the investment community is that it narrows the gap between people with privilege information and those who don't. This mean those who are rich or hedge funds do not always have the large edge they once do.
Performance since Year 1990
A quick search on the internet on Warren Buffet performance in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as follow.
1st Jun 1990 Stock Value $7,300
1st May 2020 Stock Value $ 273,950
Pretty amazing value growth. That's mean for every $7300 invested in the Year 1990 which is 30 years ago, the return is 38 times at today value even after significant write down by the company due to Covid-19. XIRR wise is 13% over the 30 years period for an Investment Guru. For a Singaporean, the exchange rate changes from 1.74 to 1.42 across this long period. After adjustment will be 12.1%.
Performance since Year 2007
How does Cory performance since Year 2007 compounded. XIRR = 6%. That's half his compared to above. For consolation, STI Index is around 2% inclu. div..... .. ...
How about Berkshire Hathaway Inc. In USD since Year 2007. Is only 7.3%. Surprise ! What-if in S$ ? That's 6.7%. That's not a lot above Cory. Maybe the company is holding too much cash ?
Cory
2020-0503
Mentally I have been preparing for the day as when the portfolio gets bigger, every 1% drop translate to much bigger absolute figures. In Year 2008 GFC, the portfolio suffers about 50% losses however the losses amount to $50,000. In Year 2020, the portfolio got hits with more that 24% loss however this translates to $250,000 loss. 5 times highers but with less than half % portfolio reduction. This are just Math and if we are to go through stock market history this can happen. If this doesn't happen, we probably not investing enough.
To mitigate this issue mentally especially so for a salary person, my idea is to Buffer the Fear from the market. This is one primary reason why investment in bonds, gov securities and fixed deposits. Even emergency cash is higher. So what is not seen in equity tracker is SSB, FD and Cash but we do have bonds as it is traded in SGX. There are few times I am tempted to sell my SSB but decided it does not make sense considering they are delivering 2%-2.5% guaranteed for many years to come.
Cory Portfolio has a mixed of STI Index, Bonds, Reits, Blue Chips and a small percentage in SMEs. So when the sell down begins due to Covid-19, Banks, Reits and STI Index are heavily sold down. However, core stock assets continue to be held. In fact some injection is done to collect stocks on the cheap slowly as previously mentioned. There is also some re-balancing to consolidate and invest.
As of today, the stock portfolio is -6.5%. XIRR about -6.9%. STI Index at -18.5%. So by such measure we are 12% ahead or roughly 10% if we include STI ETF dividends already distributed.
There is still good amount of cash to buy if the market turns south however I am reluctant to tap them unless we have clear trend that the market is getting much worst or the worst is over.
There are few things which I did. One is doing some trading between the volatility. There is not much fundamental to speak of but just a relative risk assessment when market mis-priced certain stocks. This happen a lot more nowsaday.
The month of May will be interesting because we know a lot of dividends get distributed usually on this month which probably explains why "Sell in May movement". This year quite a number of dividends got retained or cut. Well I could be wrong but no plan to do major changes in my portfolio. If the sell down is a little severe I could start my buying again.
As for stocks selections, there are quite a few I would avoid other than the usually S-Chips.
If we go by sector will be Transport, Commodity, Hospitality, Medical and Telco Stocks. Most SMEs and Penny Counters. This left with me STI Index, Banks, Reits and a selected few generally.
Cory
2020-0520
This few months has been interesting experience. For new investor is harrowing ones. If I could remember we are near the time frame where SARs basically stabilized and market was in recovery process. Covid-19 impact is not the same in the sense we have Trade War, Currency War and Oil Impacts going-on all rolled into one. This Pandemic is much more wider hitting shores of Europe and Americas. How long this will take is anybody guess.
For me personally, birth of 2nd Daughter, increase Job Scope and some personal harrowing life experiences all rolled during this period. Expenses will be expected to shoot up though not as much as first born. My wife chipping in to help on nappy and nanny expenses. She sold all her shares before Covid-19 really hits. Shiok ah ! More money for my investment. 😂
At one time my portfolio is down $250k which is 5 times of Year 2008 GFC amount but interestingly I do ok mentally but just a bit fuzzy when wife called me on some errands. Well, STAYING VESTED in market is so important because portfolio recovered significantly for my Portfolio setup and selection. I want to mention this because different selection may gives different result. I still have about 50% warchest to play with. Don't think we are out of the wood yet because I can't confirm. LOL
Reits gearing increase to 50% is the positive step to take as this will alleviate needs for rights issue with deferred payment of tenants. Even without this deferment, I think this should have been done for GFC 2008 as well that time. Anyway this is just regulatory paper play. Just like USA unlimited QE. Thanks for this, the world probably adverted Depression. Depression is not the emotional aspect that I am referring to in case some new investors thought this is what I mean but certainly will lead to if the GREAT DEPRESSION is not adverted. This event if one is to search through history is horrible to the poor and middle class. We will stop complaining of the money printing because the cost is much much cheaper. It may rewards the Rich but not everyone.
Taking stock on current portfolio status. Reits/Trusts abut 59%. Fixed Equity 16%. Portfolio yield dropped to 6% because of recent "market euphoria". Is not the perfect description of it as we are still in recovery phase or ...... ( touch wood). Performance wise -8% roughly. We have 10% gap between me and STI Index. Slightly lesser after considering Index dividends issued. Starting to take stock of my loan, asset, FD, SSB, emergency funds and free cash again for the next stage of development. Yes, the more cash the merrier ... 2 more weeks to go.
Cory
2020-0418
