Cory Diary : Portfolio Building Plan 2018-0707

What a surprise Property Curbs. This time gives a big blow to the stock market on the day when almost everywhere else market is up and STI recorded -1.99% on 6th July on a cloud of Trade War up day internationally.

Looking back since last year on rising interest rate, Bank and Property Counters have very good run. This has become unhealthy to the nation and young people. So timing could not been better despite trade war overhanging the market which our government celebrated with an implosion. The curbs specifically targeted investment homes while keeping the supply of lands up.

For those who are interested in rough maths (else ignore this section), a million dollar 2nd apartment that only requires 3% before any ABSD, now requires 12% to top it up instead of 7%. That's means $120K ABSD. For annual saving of $30K, this will requires 4 more years to accumulate. And with LTV @75% ... that's another 1 more year.

Being in my late 40s, and my bad timing foray into OCBC, I am not happy but I could understand why they have to do it. Things do not look that bad considering my Reits counters and surprisingly Singtel managed to counter the down trend a little. This is further damped by Bonds/Pref. And this is where strength of portfolio comes in to bring me sanity. I am 4% up from STI after the death cross performance. For now, appears my portfolio is leveling off in Comparison Chart below.

2018-0707 Comparison Report

As in my earlier articles, I have been holding back on purchase in Keppel, DBS, STE and Ascendas Reit which are in my potential list. But I did procure a few lots of STI ETF. Despite the current negative sentiments on the property curbs my re-balance trades typically result in more investment cash as mentioned as I am still concern that the Trade War could escalate significantly and timing is critical to secure enough funds for dividend investments for the future.

Cash hits 15%. Bullets ready.


Cory
20180707

Cory Diary : Shopping List 20180701

Successfully secured this month SSB 2.63% result with $12.5k allocated. I hope to hit max again this month. This do not count into my dividend tracker as I deem them as buffer for my property loan support plan. 

Relative unscathed so far this year with -2% returns. I am pretty aware thing could turn for a worst. Need to buff up my war chest so I will be controlling my equity purchase much tighter and to take profit on any equity much easier on those that is not core holdings.

Hot List

There is sufficient buffers. I could acquire or some more of them at any moment. I am still withholding my firepower in view of trade war. Not in order of priority.

1. DBS - Start with small planned. And see any further correction. Not top list.

2. Keppel Corp - Potential

3. STI ETF - Acquire in stages. Not expensive

4. Ascendas Reit - Average down planned

5. ST Engineering - Not in top purchase list. Hope to increase my holding

Tempting List

They have hit my buy price but I have enough exposure in them. So tempting but I must not buy until i see some crucial indicators.

1. Singtel - Regional telcos pickup in profitability needed. Look for uptrend in price.

2. Netlinktrust - Directors significant purchase needs to happen and next dpu/results review.

Waiting List

1. Aims reit - Sold all. Price flat currently.

2. FCT - Sold all. Price flat currently.

3. MLT - Premium. Not enough MOS.

4. HRnetgroup - Like to expand if enough MOS.

5. Vicom - Sold all. Price not moving.

6. JD.com - Still under consideration

7. HP Inc - Still under consideration

Cory

20180701

Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross P3

This is continuation on my personal portfolio tracking against STI Index Part 3 (P3). It has becomes a study of how market dynamic changes STI and me. Since I last blogged few weeks on this subject, the broad market has turned for the worst. I was hoping for market rebound and hope to be able to align to the recovery with STI if not better.

It appears Singapore economy are more tied to China to Shanghai index with the trade war. On such days, US market can go opposite or has relatively minor retraction whereas Shanghai index could fall like "waterfalls" and this means bad news for STI Index.

Looking at chart (Left), this how the tracker goes so far till yesterday. Yes ! Is a cross but a death cross. I have finally beat STI by 1.2 percent point. Well, not exactly. Technically speaking since both lines are pointing down that's an obvious downtrend.

The cross is make possible due to sell down of bank stocks and my "Fixed Equity" acting as a strong buffer. I think US stocks helped some. I do not think it has much to do with my Part 2 in overall strategy sense. It was planned for a rebound not a downtrend. At this point of time, I do not have much stocks to sell so it could be a hold till recovery comes. I have build some war chest to benefit from further downside as I sold more than I buy past month net-net. Max possible dividend by year end could hits just above 40K.

There were few other observations in the market. One is surprise Keppel significant sell down despite oil price holding relatively well. Reits generally have corrected down a level on average which I think is healthy. While Singtel has moved down, M1 and Starhub got further sell down as well in-addition to previous selldown ...pardon my english. And sold down in Singpost, ST Eng, Comfortdelgro and those tech stocks . Stocks are certainly selling at discount now. Have we seen enough value ? I would watch China and Trump next move.


Cory
20180623