Cory Diary : Cory's Investment Insights

Emergency Fund

Personalized Emergency Fund Calculation:

Individual Circumstances: Emergency fund needs vary based on personal circumstances such as age, job stability, housing loan, and other financial obligations.

Expense Coverage: While experts recommend 3 to 6 months of expenses, this may not be adequate for everyone, especially those closer to retirement age or with significant financial commitments like housing loans.

Long-Term Considerations: The emergency fund should be sufficient to cover expenses until the investment cashflow can reliably support your needs. For example, if it will take 6 years before your investments can cover your expenses, a 6-year emergency fund may be more appropriate. 

Housing Loans Impact:

Significant Financial Obligation: Housing loans can greatly impact the size of the emergency fund needed. A $1M home with a $5k monthly payment requires careful consideration.

Depleting Emergency Funds: Paying off a housing loan with emergency funds can leave you vulnerable. It's important to balance loan repayment with maintaining a robust emergency fund.

Income Streams:

Dependence on Income: If your financial plan relies on rental or dividend income, these should not be counted as emergency funds since they are intended for future needs.

Economic Stability: In regions with generally stable economic conditions, like Singapore, the likelihood of finding work is higher, but still, one must be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

Investment Risk

Young Investors and Risk:

Risk Tolerance: Young investors are often advised to take higher risks because they have time to recover from losses. However, this advice must be tailored to individual financial situations.

Critical Funds: For young couples, a significant sum like $100k might be needed for major life events (wedding, home, children). Losing this in high-risk investments could be devastating.

Weighing Risk vs. Needs:

Early Financial Milestones: Before risking essential savings, consider the importance of the funds in question. High risk can be suitable for surplus funds, not those needed for immediate, crucial expenditures.

Risk as a Percentage of Net Worth: As your net worth grows, the proportion of your portfolio you can afford to risk might increase. However, early on, preserving capital can be more crucial than seeking high returns.

Starting Small

Slow and Steady Growth:

Initial Capital: Starting with a small capital doesn't mean you should take excessive risks to grow it quickly. Consistent, smaller returns can be more beneficial in the long run.

Compound Growth: Over time, regular savings and moderate returns can compound significantly, leading to substantial portfolio growth without taking undue risks.

Incremental Growth: As your career progresses, your ability to save and invest larger amounts will increase, accelerating your portfolio's growth.

Personal Journey:

From Small Beginnings: Many successful investors start with modest amounts and focus on steady, incremental growth rather than seeking quick, high-risk returns.

Consistency: Regular contributions and disciplined investing practices build a strong financial foundation over time.

Conclusion

Investment strategies should be personalized, taking into account individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and financial goals. Emergency funds should be sufficient to cover unexpected situations without compromising long-term financial security. Young investors should balance risk with the need to preserve critical funds for life milestones. Starting small with a focus on consistent growth can lead to substantial long-term success.

Cory Diary

2024-05-28

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Disclaimer

The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Equity Portfolio Review

Equity Portoflio - 2024-0519

In this review, I'll provide a brief commentary on each counter.

REITs

There are 9 REITs in the portfolio after selling off United Hampshire. Ascott Trust yields look quite interesting. If there is a correction, there may be consideration to add a little more. This is despite strong bank yields, planning for necessary transition options.

Sabana Trust is in a more complicated situation as its share price could go either way due to ongoing internalization complexity. With current cash conservation needs, it seems a luxury to have exposure to this in my portfolio at this time. It poses elevated volatility risk. The pro is the strength of the REIT, which may mitigate some risk, but it's uncertain how much it can help.

Elite Commercial REIT is in a deep drawdown due to the ongoing UK macro situation. As the position is not significant in the portfolio and the REIT has mainly government tenants, I do not plan to relinquish the opportunity of a rebound if any. Currently, they aren't in distress and are well-capitalized from a recent rights issue. However, we can't say with absolute certainty there is no risk or surprise from what we don't know.

Mapletree Logistics Trust has recently been hit due to China exposure in their valuation and negative rental reversion reflected in it. Despite this, the REIT has managed the issue well. With management actions on how they position the REIT, it seems investors may take some comfort. Nevertheless, as an earlier article mentioned, asset sales to support income distribution are a fight against the Fed. They likely will pull through well. Planning for China macro-wise is much harder due to ongoing tensions between the powers. Technically, if we use MA 50/150, the chart has yet to reverse to an uptrend, so I will continue to monitor.

IREIT positions in the portfolio have been sized much smaller in proportion despite being popular among investors in foreign REITs. They have all the ingredients to be successful. This was the case before the interest rate spike and the Ukraine War. Unlike UK REIT, they are fortunate to have locked in their loans until 2026. Like most foreign loan exposures, the high rate spike and poor sector segment hit them hard.

Core Reits

There are currently 4 core REITs in the portfolio: AIMS APAC REIT, Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Industrial REIT, and FCT. They all have significant exposure to the local economy, which shields them quite well. Ascendas and Mapletree benefit from lower loan rates as well. Their well-managed hedging and fixed loans help keep their DPU stable.

AIMS APAC REIT used relatively expensive perpetuals before the rate spike, which tied them over well for the past years. With the perpetuals scheduled to expire, it may face much higher costs for their loan or perpetual rollover. Being a small REIT, I decided to reduce the position by roughly 40%+ to reduce portfolio volatility from top REIT allocation to the last of the core REITs. FCT is strong in suburban malls. They too face daunting loan costs over time. Nevertheless, it has a strong business, and I am happy to hold it through its current allocation.

US Stocks

Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla roughly make up 3% each. They are all strong in their respective markets with world-leading businesses. Currently, they hold less than 9% of the portfolio in total. If opportunities arise, there may be consideration to expand in this segment. I am quite comfortable with what I currently have. Microsoft and Amazon are expected to provide a strong base support that will keep this group steady. Tesla is quite volatile but can have explosive upside if they execute their developing projects well. The hope is not to further inject fresh funds into US stocks unless there is a good rationale. The main reason is I already hit my 50s and view cash flow from dividend stocks as a key priority.

Banks

DBS and OCBC have outsized allocations in the current portfolio. UOB, which had a small allocation, was sold just before results. As mentioned earlier, they are a hedge against REITs due to high rates impacting them. So far, they have nicely filled the capital loss gap on the REIT side well—too well, as high rates continue to prolong. There is temptation to inject more funds into them due to the high yield they can provide over the REITs. What's more, they have a good business environment. Unfortunately, this could put the portfolio at higher exposure risk to one segment. Not my time.

Non-Bank Local Stocks

Venture, Sheng Siong, and Netlink NBN Trust. Venture is a test with a very small allocation. There hasn't been much investigation into it, whereas Netlink and Sheng Siong are more familiar. Both latter stocks are sized to support the portfolio if the economy goes into distress. There is no motivation to expand their allocation further.

The latest report from Netlink is within expectations but also reminded me there aren't catalysts out there yet that can mitigate their direction long term on cash flow. This can grow into a problem if not managed carefully. Sheng Siong is boring but awesome as usual. They have a lower yield; however, there are opportunities.

Cory Diary

2024-05-20

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Sell in May and go away logic

As a dividend investor, this principle has never crossed my mind. It seems more aligned with a timer or short-term investment rationale. Coincidentally, many REIT and BANK stocks go ex-dividend in May. As you may be aware, stock prices typically drop upon going ex-dividend. This might give the impression that the local SGX market is down, especially for counters that offer substantial dividends in this region.

What makes this time particularly noteworthy is the market's response amidst an environment of inflation and high rate, where banks are performing well, while REITs have already rebounded from lows. This trend holds, with the exception of US REITs, which are experiencing a serious downturn.

The portfolio is invested in several markets, which can be categorized as follows [positioned at the bottom right].

With REITs and banks combined comprising more than 76% (after selling off UOB before ex-dividend to raise cash), the portfolio was expected to experience drawdown symptoms as they went ex-dividend. However, the portfolio returns achieved another all-time high. Perhaps this is simply a positive market pump, but I foresee further potential in the banks as they report record profits this quarter.

Note : Top Left, Year 2022 drawdown but not as deep as Year 2020 Covid year which aren't reflected in the chart due to it occurs in the mid of the year which then closed up before the year ended.

Nevertheless, it's a good time to capture a snapshot of today for future review.

Cory Diary

2024-05-012

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : MLT Result Review

MLT is one of the smaller allocation in the portfolio which I intent to grow when opportunity arises. However, this is on the premise that the Fundamental of the Reit, the Returns of the investment and Risks are better understood before ploughing more and more into it each time. This review is a quick and dirty fast way to get a basic understanding too.

The Reits are relative large and seen recycling of assets in their managed properties during this high rate environment period. A possibilities of DPU support too. Currently 6.6% DPU Yield.

They are also exposed to Weaker China Environment. About 20% of the Reit. But if we include HK that's about 40%. They are well diversified across asia regions.

The result has been "well managed" looking at the footnote. Good thing about large branded reit. So the question is this sustainable. Currently NAV 1.4 which looks quite align to the traded price. Will they have more recycling to go ? Possibly.

Debt Management

Low cost at 2.5%. Quite surprising. No weakening in ICR.

Added 5/12 to better reflect debt profile

Conclusion

When i first start the review, I am quite concern with the HK/China exposure. And a quick reflex is a Hold of this counter. However, the financials, the size and the stability the management provided so far do bring some comfort that there maybe enough Risk/Reward ratio to ride the dragon returns. One thing to note is not sure how effective or duration on the recycling part as I am not familiar with this but I guess this maybe something to monitor and learn.

Cory Diary

2024-05-03

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong Result Review

No surprises. Do well as usual. Operation data excellent. High cash level helps to boost their fixed returns which is quite substantial. Their total return in my perception typically lower than banks but strong stable returns. A good diversification from portfolio heavy in other sectors. A boring and steady company.

Foreign Operation

This is something like the growth engine of the company. Which may spring surprises one day.

They are very careful on the expansion not to derail the company profitability.

Dividend

Continue to grow. Annulised 4.13%. ( Local banks currently range between 5.5%~6.5% range )

It has the basic essential attribute and can do ok in poor economic situation. 

Cory Diary

2024-05-01

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Cory Diary : Portfolio updates

Cory Diary

2024-04-21

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Cory Diary : Dividend Q1 '24

Dividend received $12,096 topping my cumulative number from half million achieved goal last year. To clarify, Dividend is basically from equity. I have stopped tracking interests return outside Equity due to too numerous transaction which i find time limited. Q1 is a slow quarter due to banks yet ex-dividend and main bulk of dividends are not expected to fall into here.

Portfolio returns wise YTD is doing slightly better than STI Index though not much significant. It would have been better without reduced Tesla which I plan to hold long term. Other US stocks do helps to mitigate it. The strategy to use bank to hedge against high rate is paying off again this quarter.

Main bulk of warchest or reserve are still locked in t-bills, ssb, fd and cash as I am currently happy with the amount of dividend I can get already. With the large allocation in bank to mitigate reits allocation, i feel is too risky to expand further. I am also thinking of reducing some high risk reit counter allocation further if opportunity arises. Maybe due to age and high expenses, i may not pounce big even if market crashes as the current interest rate returns are quite attractive. I even holding on to the USD cash which i got from Google sales.

So what i do now on the portfolio ? Crusing mode. yeh.

Cory Diary

2024-04-14

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Equity Portfolio Adjustments Amid Market Uncertainty

Shifting Strategies

As we navigate through the intricate landscape of investment, it becomes imperative to reassess our equity portfolios, especially in the face of fluctuating market conditions. With the Federal Reserve hesitating to adjust rates as expected and a mix of thriving and sluggish markets, it's time to delve into the strategic adjustments made in recent weeks.

Dropping Google

Despite its dominant position, Google appears to be lagging in the rapidly evolving tech landscape. Questions arise about its adaptability and potential disruption. Personal experiences with Google's desktop functionalities and YouTube recommendations have been underwhelming, with concerns about malware hijacking further exacerbating the user experience. While Google still holds prominence, and I will be back quickly. Meantime, cash raised from the sale.

Adding UOB

Amidst the goal of mitigating portfolio volatility, a strategic move was made to incorporate UOB into the equity mix. With a sizable allocation already in DBS and OCBC, UOB's inclusion diversifies the bank exposure effectively. This decision brings the banks' allocation to 36.5% of the equity portfolio, offering a hedge against REITs exposure while supporting dividend strategies. Despite prevailing concerns, current pricing suggests banks are not overvalued, with recession risk looming as a key watchpoint.

Monitoring Distressed Stocks

The portfolio hasn't been immune to challenges, with certain stocks facing continuous declines. Specifically, iReit and Elite Commercial Reits have experienced capital losses attributed to macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations. However, their valuations remain comparatively stable against US Office REITs, prompting a decision to maintain positions, anticipating potential recovery as market conditions evolve. The fortunate thing is they have been sized-investment so their impact is not significant so far. Each year we can only afford a few small lemons so we need to constantly remind oursleves in our picks and allocation.

Conclusion

In the ever-changing investment landscape characterized by global market dynamics, proactive adjustments are essential to optimize portfolio performance and manage risk effectively. By scrutinizing each component and adapting strategies accordingly, portfolio can navigate uncertainties while positioning for long-term success. As we progress through 2024, vigilance and flexibility will remain paramount in capitalizing on emerging opportunities and mitigating potential setbacks.

Cory Diary

2024-03-22

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Net Worth Update and Milestone Achievements

It's been a while since our last net worth update, and I'm excited to share some positive developments. The primary catalyst for the upswing is the increased valuation of our properties, a conservative estimate that has significantly contributed to the overall growth.

Let's delve into the numbers:

1. Property Valuation Boost:

A noticeable uptick in net worth, with property valuation being a key driver.

Despite a year-to-date equity dip of 1%, we've successfully elevated our expected dividend plan to nearly 70k.

2. Strategic Investment Moves:

Our investment accounts are currently on the lower side due to substantial deployments.

Notably, we've strategically reduced the size of our saving cash, redirecting funds into safer assets for fixed income, as reflected in the downward slope of Non-Productive assets.

Surprise Milestone Achieved

An unforeseen milestone has surfaced - the current fixed-rate loan at 1.5% still has a year and a half remaining.

Conducting a stress test, we've realized that, by combining our main saving cash with SSB, T-Bills, and FD, the total amount surpasses the outstanding housing loan. This implies that, in retirement, we could potentially pay off the loan without selling any equity, providing financial security for daily expenses.

As an added comfort, once the housing loan concludes, our outstanding loan will decrease, creating an additional buffer for potential working capital needs.

Potential Milestone - Divergence Growth

One of our challenges is managing family expenses exceeding 100k annually, a figure that continues to rise. To mitigate this, we need to explore avenues to control or slow down the increase. Successfully achieving this would eliminate the need to draw down investment capital, which currently generates crucial dividend income for daily expenses.

Looking ahead, there are two potential strategies: reducing or slowing the expense growth or expanding our portfolio size to generate larger dividends.

In summary, our financial journey has witnessed positive trends, and we're strategically positioned to navigate potential challenges and embrace future opportunities.

Cory Diary

2024-02-24

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Cory Diary : Expense 2023

Currently on routine half-yearly tracking family expenses. To be exact the tracking is based on the outflow from saving account. Before I start it off there are a few items or assumption made.

Figure includes

• "Home Loan"
• A few one-off Medical Expenses - Therapy Sessions etc
• On/Off there maybe Bonus Company Share Sales
• Parental Allowances

Figure excludes

• Income Taxes. I help cover my partner too.
• Partner contributed to some expenses. Assume 15%. May Revisit later on this assumption.

Full Year Comparison

To set the right expectation, it maybe quite big-eyed to see saving jumped 65% for Year 2023 when income do not rise as much. 13% includes company shares sold. Saving is typically a small subset for me due to family, housing, transport, holiday etc. The important rationale is that if we able to keep our expense in check, all the income increase will be channeled to saving. Hence, we see large % increase in saving.

1st Half Year Comparison

Cash Expenses do increase significantly due to many reasons. However, what is interesting to know is that for 1st Half comparison YoY.

There is basically negative cashflow for 1st half of Y2023. Lumpy Tax. What to focus is the cash expenses YoY 47% Increase but overall expense only 9% up. Compared to Full Year chart, the expense 42% as is much more actively watched in 2nd Half of Y2023

Sharing on Expense Ways

Obviously this aren't a sharing of low expenses. Is not intended initially when I start to write this article but strikes me that i could share what efforts have been put in to slow down expense increase with family as this aren't easy ....

1. More instances of more simple home cook food and outside meals.

2. Tighter control on transports. We do more walking.

3. Reduced Fruits wastage and less expensive varieties.

I wish there could be more. There aren't. Is so easy to blow our budgets. What keeps the mood up is the Net Worth still on increasing path. Maybe this is the way to control expense in moderation while increase total assets. We still need to keep fighting the demon within.

Cory Diary

2024-02-19

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Cash Flow against Assets Investment

A quick show on investment returns supporting cash flow compare to asset invested. Each set of matching colour between the 2 charts for comparison. Left is Asset allocated. Right is the corresponding cash flow returns from it.

Rental Income is the net after interests portion of the monthly loan and maintenance fee. Further 20% cut on rent to be conservative. It is an expansionist for my cash flow though not much as Equity. View it as much lower risk even though on leverage and potential capital gain.

Retirement and Insurance segment includes CPF. Keep in me this is paper exercise as I won't be withdrawing my CPF OA/SA after 55. And the monthly amount in RA will only happens after 65.

Dividends are basically from Equity. Do note some stock don't give dividends therefore reflect weaker cash flow. Itself tells a story on how we want to plan it between growth and dividend.

Saving Cash is high due to bonus and de-risk of the portfolio before Year 2024 started. Looks like a key priority to have it reduced.

Ending with Equity and Property are the two key pillars that go beyond their asset allocations when come to supporting cash flows. The worst is to leave cash in saving account. Need to make them to work obviously.

Keep in mind not to lose capital on whatever we do.

Cory Diary

2024-01-23

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : CPF Top-Up

Last year, due to a rate hike, savers had a field day scooping up Fixed Deposits, Singapore Savings Bonds, and Singapore T-Bills. In the Singapore context, these options offer almost guaranteed returns, are SGD denominated, and provide strong interest rates ranging from 2.7x% to 4%.

Unfortunately, last year, I only managed to top up 5K into my CPF Account. I believe free cash is better invested elsewhere. That year marked the last two-year period during which I could benefit from a good SA allocation to my CPF account, enjoying higher CPF rates, as indicated in the table below.

At age 54, this is the last year to top up and get the most out of it before the Retirement Account (RA) is formed at age 55. What makes this year special compared to getting good rates in the age 55-65 band?

This is the window that allows me to hide most of my SA account funds, which enjoy a higher rate than OA, when Full Retirement Sum (FRS) deduction to form RA. Personally, I believe this should not be allowed to happen, but it does in today's scenario. Going back to Age 55-65 bands topic, there's compounding delay as it will start from age 55. Not only that, there is a larger allocation into the Medisave Account (MA), which is locked for medical use.

So, should I maximize my Voluntary Contributions to the Retirement Account (VC3AC) this year? Something to ponder about especially how's the rate will look like for next 10 years compared to OA, SA and MA accounts.

Cory Diary

2024-01-15

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Investment Ratios

Today played around Ratios with newly updated Asset numbers. We start with Asset Allocation. See below.

And then we do some interesting Ratios among them.

The first ratio is how much liquidity on current assets that i can move easily. This give me an idea if I am to ramp up my equity portfolio to support war chest.

The second ratio is how much resource into property. 61% of Equity size. This tell me how diversified is my income stream considering both are considerable income sources.

The third ratio is how much idle cash against equity which is 16% on opportunity cost. On the net worth allocation wise, cash is just 5.4% only. This surprising facts tell me there is more work to do to manage cash better after year end bonuses and stock option sales.

The final ratio is how much Fixed income allocated. They come from FD, SSB, T-Bills etc. In this ratio is whopping 53% of Equity. Am I really conservative ? On Net Worth allocation wise the fixed income ratio is only 18.5%.

I could rationalize that my Equity allocation has reach bottom so no more sales unless market really really tempt me. Cheers

Something to think about this month ! 

Cory Diary

2024-01-09

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Year 2023 Net Worth

Just tally up on the most exciting figure of the year for me as this theoretically encompass year family expenses, incomes, pensions, parental support, investments,  etc. To cut it short, the year score is below. Net Worth 7.3% up YoY (ATH) which is kind of relief after seeing a reduction for first time in Year 2022 since I started tracking.

Net Worth YoY

The final data includes the CPF interests just credited. There is some ambiguity on the Net Property value estimation and more conservative approach is used based on URA transactions on similar asset and do a $50 PSF haircut from it.

After subtraction from equity returns, there is still sizeable saving for the year which could mean we have manage to control our expenses largely. I am not completely sure yet how this is done and this will be on another article to dive into as there are other factors coming into play such as bonuses, higher fixed returns and better rental income support that I can think of currently.

Net Worth Tracker

Year 2023 is full of macro risk situations in many fronts. So in my opinion is still the most hatred recovery for the market despite high rate and recession fear looming right after Covid. Is also in this situation that I am able to inject investment into Reits and Banks to achieve record dividend as my dollar is stretched with much higher dividend yield counters for basically the same business due to rate impacts. Sometimes I wonder why markets are so myopic to allow that to happen since high rate is not going to last very long. Why price the stock much lower due to higher cost of funding which is temporarily in nature? Maybe a lot of people is on leverage ?

Not only that, this market behavior allow my emergency funds to achieve high yields from FD, MMF, SSB and T-Bills too. The last few weeks of the year saw the Fed dot plot to Pivot which reflected in strong recovery of Reit stocks. In the tracker chart, Non-Productive Assets ( NPA ) are mainly FD, MMF and Cash. The sudden increase is due to salary, bonus, stock options and some build up of warchest of the Reits from recent run-up.

There is no change in the property valuation but in net increases due to monthly paydown of the loan. This is seen in the Property stack of the chart. No wonder people says property is a way of force saving. In net, equity investment has came down slightly to be diverted into T-bills and SSB. Some Warchest towards the end of the year. However the total investment stream stack remains flat.

What do you think about Year 2024 be like for the market ? My hope is that it will continues to be great. All factors seem to point in that direction. Feeling wise, I do not have incline towards any direction yet. Meantime I try to hit higher in Net Worth for this vital years as I am no longer young and risk of it's growth, is that I am near the end side of my working lifespan.

Happy New Year Friend !

Cory Diary

2023-01-06

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Year 2023 Equity Learning Part 2

This is an update on the 2nd part of Equity Performance in Year 2023. The first part is the result. Link here. The Year 2023 XIRR return is 14.6%. For a portfolio that has 50% Reits (fluctuates between 40% to 70%) allocation, the dynamism is quite high (See below chart) . The key learning is how to manage drawdown, and profit from it.

Manage Risk

Reits are investor instrument for cashflow and have sturdy business that protects our investments. Therefore thoughts I have is that we need to minimize and careful when we select Reits denominated in foreign currency or majority returns in foreign rental income. In situation we cannot avoid, we hope to see careful hedging of foreign income and their loan by the Reits if is not natural hedge. 

Hedging for loan rates are a must with size varying to their business situation. Finally, investment sizing or allocation will be key to reduce the risk. With this I will probably add another lens to my current portfolio an adjust accordingly.

How to Profit

Assumingly, we have strong business in the stocks we hold, we could invest each time in bit size when there is draw down, and come out of top later. See picture above on the volatility. Is easy to say but normally hard to execute. To do that, I need to ensure we have warchest, strong reits, not to huge allocation on any single reit to allow upsize and hopefully strong sponsor in such counter. Make sense ?

Cory Diary

2023-01-04

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Cory Diary : Year 2023 Equity Performance

The conclusion of 2023 mirrors my sentiments and hopes – a robust recovery in the market, a realization that the oversold conditions were a consequence of countering high inflation rather than a market bubble. As the Year-on-Year inflation rate recedes, the persistently elevated living costs and prices of goods and services remain, if not escalate.

The initial emergence of the year witnessed both high inflation and a spike in interest rates. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that failed to hedge their loans effectively suffered from a sudden increase in interest costs. Those exposed to currency risks were also significantly impacted, experiencing diminished rental income returns from overseas assets due to unfavorable forex rates. This dichotomy becomes evident when comparing strong and weak REITs during challenging times.

This scenario implies that companies may not experience reduced returns per se, but rather encounter higher operating costs. The looming risk is that the economy might face a downturn if the high-interest rate situation persists. Thus, the Federal Reserve's indication of lower rates in 2024 is a welcome move. However, luxury goods are the first to bear the brunt, exemplified by reduced orders for items such as Tesla cars.

Investors in US-centric REITs experienced a substantial decline due to various challenges—from the work-from-home trend to high-interest rates and forex impact. Europeans witnessed a reduced but still significant impact. Elite Comm, on the other hand, showed resilience due to renewed government tenants and robust rental escalation. Nonetheless, it could not evade the downturn in the UK economy affecting property valuations and weakening the pound.

Different REIT assets faced varying situations. United Hampshire, while not as severely affected as US Office REITs, demonstrated that its Retail/Storage assets were more resilient. They still grappled with high-interest rates and forex challenges. The CEO's decisions likely played a crucial role, as a swift rebound in their stock price occurred when the Federal Reserve executed a pivot.

How did the portfolio perform? For the year, the portfolio returned an XIRR of 14.6%, as illustrated in the chart depicting an absolute increase in dollars. XIRR, representing money-weighted compounding returns, was achieved through a 10% cash-out to build up a war chest and investments in Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) and T-Bills returning an average of 3% to 4%.

The multi-year XIRR, calculated over 5 years, stands at 6.6%. This duration was chosen due to cash injections from increased work income and larger dividend reinvestment. The 10-year period seemed too extended, leading to a considerable delta in portfolio size. The 3-year period, on the other hand, could be easily skewed by a single year's performance. Nevertheless, the purpose is to provide a reference for assessing the compounding 5-year trending view.

Looking ahead to 2024, as mentioned in a previous article, the full impact of the rate hike may not have manifested yet, depending on each REIT's specifics. With increasing optimism but tempered by weaker reports, the market will proceed cautiously. I believe there is merit in being vested in banks to capitalize on hedge strategies while still pursuing income-generating investments.

Cory Diary

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Year 2023 Dividends

As the year comes to a close soon, I believe there is no more Ex-dividend coming to the last weeks. This tells you I am not tracking such coming event anymore. Just managing stocks I am comfortable and through sizing. When we take care of this, the annual dividend will care for themselves.

For this year $71,959. This is new record in my dividend journey. The pace has slowed down from my earlier expectation as I embarked in strengthening SSB, FD and T-Bills instead of injection of fresh fund in Q4. Below is the annual growing trend and the cumulative figure.

For Year 2024 entry, the max dividend size has also come down some as I prepared some cash warchest for new opportunity. Hopefully this will be build back-up to grow the dividend trend further by end of 2024. I have been in the process to do some clean up to the portfolio to de-risk. Sasseur Reit has been cleared. Sabana Reit almost done after queueing for days. Some trimming of counters to re-balance.

The Portfolio breakdown as follow as we expanded more into bank and US Stocks.

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Investment Plan for 2024, Navigating Through High Inflation

As I embark on my annual ritual of crafting an investment plan, the theme for 2024 becomes apparent: the persistent impact of high inflation. In contrast to the pre-COVID era's 1%-3%, we anticipate a sustained period of elevated inflation rates.

Acknowledging the inevitability of economic cycles, we must navigate through the highs and lows while thriving amidst higher inflation. The rate hikes are yet to be fully felt by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), leading to a continued compression of distribution per unit (DPU). Eventually, as these adjustments take effect, tenants will grapple with increased rental costs during contract renewals. This, however, is a gradual process, allowing time to assess the economic landscape before making significant adjustments.

The looming possibility of a recession adds another layer of complexity. As rates potentially decrease to mitigate the impact, there is a crucial time lag in each step of the process. Therefore, strategic planning is imperative to safeguard our portfolios.

Personally, my top choice for this environment is banks. Their adaptability allows them to thrive in both high and low-rate scenarios. While recessions may impact banks, history shows they weather such storms better than many other industries. As long as banks are not directly hit, as seen in past crises like the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), Global Financial Crisis (GFC), or specific industry collapses like oil, they tend to provide stability and robust dividends, currently at a manageable 50% payout ratio.

REITs, on the other hand, assume a secondary role due to the ongoing DPU risks and direct impacts. Despite a 90% payout ratio, they may offer capital gains potential when the bottom is reached and recession seems remote.

Another intriguing class of dividend stocks includes ventures like Sheng Siong and NetLink NBN Trust. These stocks present opportunities for good dividends based on their unique attributes. Sheng Siong, in particular, boasts a track record of both dividend and capital growth, making it a potential performer in a high-rate environment.

The strategy for the coming year involves allocating resources to protect capital, secure base dividends, and allow room for growth. This includes trimming specific REITs that have yielded substantial capital gains, rebalancing towards banks and non-REIT dividend stocks. Caution is advised when expanding positions in specific REITs or growth stocks. Finally, excess investment cash could be secured in a war chest, which can be parked in interest-bearing instruments such as Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB), Treasury Bills, or other similar instruments in the absence of compelling opportunities.

With that, the current portfolio did some re-balancing. Is not done yet and there are still some funds to deploy as the dividend has been lowered.

Cory

2023-1212

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Putting in a case for Reit today

Rate Spike

The whole issue of Reits share price being impacted for the past 2 years is due to Rate Spike.The volatility can be seen in Cory portfolio ytd P/L below. The ongoing battle between the yay and nay since the rise of the rate in Year 2022. 

For dividend investor, this is the first time we see significant spike in rate of recent times. Reit contract with different tenants take time to change over the years  therefore the cost of funding cannot be passed down fully to them. Inflation adjustment may also happen on annual basis if is part of contract.

Currently Rate is Peaking in this high rate environment. While rental contract such as Mall Reit could takes 3 years to cover all tenants. This will mean Reit investors will have to absorb the cost of funding differences even with Reit with strong moat. The good news are most Reits are still profitable. We are in interesting time because the irony is those reits with very short term contract will be able to raise their rental cost quickly and are much more nimble to react to rate hike.

Quite a few Reits are much more resilient due to high exposure to local economy in earning S$ and hedging. This shield them significantly while they bid for time. Larger Reits able to realise value in some of their properties with minimal impact to their recurring dpu or even sell in premium to cover the dpu shortfall.

Missing the Trees for the Forest

Interest Rate Trend - Decades is a down trend. While there is many prediction that rate will stay for high and longer, this is not the key factor that impact reits as cost will be passed down to clients in matter of time. However, long term when market stabilized, if that happens, we could see the lowering trend initiated again.

The benefits will be we could see significant rise in reits earning as contract takes time to unwind too and economy could be boosted in lower yield environment again. This is the upper optimism of hope. The fear could be  diving deeper into lower dpu such as the high rate causes recession to the broader economy hence nothing is riskless due to the other spectrum of negativity. 

Cory

2023-1113

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.