Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - 2017 Final

With the last trading day over for the year, is time to publish 2017 annual return.

Here's the Logic of the measure to produce the performance table

- Final book value between the last trading day close of the years
- Excel XIRR Dollar weighted is more rational as Time is Money and reflect portfolio growth rate of an investor better

As above, Equity return for year 2017 is 13.5%. This is quite a good year but still fall short of this year STI Index hitting 18.25% excluding dividends. The main reasons are due to lack of significant bank exposure and mute Telco returns. Despite so, able to achieve double digit returns should be satisfied.

For reference, annualized returns since 2007 (below chart) , is still ahead of STI Index. Do note STI index 0.8% excludes dividends. I am truly humbled through simulation that is not easy to move an 11th year old XIRR figure of 7% to just 1 % more. This is because of expanding portfolio and time value. So for Warren Buffet to achieve more than 20% over 50 year is incredible.

Current Bond/PS exposure constitutes 22%. Lower Reits figure of 33% due to late buying of Singtel, HrNet and ST Engineering. And re-balancing of CMT. I am glad to be back into LMIR when the stock corrected more than 10%.


Cory
20171229

Cory Diary : Ones Passive Income

So why another article on this ? Just watched a Ted by a young chap on Passive Income and it hits many notes that I have been trying to formulate in my mind. There are many out there by bloggers. Last I can remember I do not have one. At least I couldn't remember. So I should. :)

I REALLY should because I feel is very important and it can help lifes. So if I can help one, just one to think about their future, is enough for my time.

What is Passive Income ?

Income that requires only some work upfront to setup, and spend little of your time in exchange for it thereafter.

What is Financial Freedom ?

When my Passive Income surpass my living expenses.

Why Passive Income ?

There are many reasons

- Out of regular income

- Better lifestyle

- Do not exchange significant time for it

- Alternative streams of income

- Do other things that I like

- Build up your confidence by being financially sound

- Peace of mind

Passive Income is Not

- Instant Returns. It takes time to learn and build it up.

- I view Stock investment returns as passive but not trading.

- Exchange time for money

- Certainly not walk in the park. You need to be smart about doing it.

Don't get me wrong. I love my job. But I am also realist that I could be out of job that is beyond my control. Over this past week I met up with four friends on different occasions. They have one thing in common. They are unemployed. For commoners, once they are out of job, there aren't much alternative to go back to market. One has a studio but do not have enough rental to cover his loan, One downgraded to HDB, One starts doing Index trading and the last One stays at home. There are two more unemployed friends that I did not get to meet. One just got a contract job for a year while the other still looking for something to do.

So the earlier we can start the better. What will be your Passive Income ?

Merry Christmas

Cory

20171223

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20171214

I was wondering should i do any portfolio post this month considering we are about 2 weeks away from year end evaluation post. I guess no harm to do a quick update for people who has been tracking.

CMT - I did some re-balance today as my exposure is a little high after recent run-up. Is still one of my key large position. XIRR just on CMT hits 20% this year.

AGT - I am no longer vested in AGT as I find this counter harder to understand than expected.

ST Engg - Initiate a small position.

HRnetGroup - initiate a small position.


Cory
20171214

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20171121

With all of my counters result out, is time to do a quick peek of my Portfolio.

For the start, STI index went up crazy today and for the matter this year. If we include dividends, that 20% up at least ytd whereas Singtel lingers on despite higher dividend due to 3 cents special. A reason of my widening gap with STI Index. Having say that I still feel this Telco is undervalued. Hopefully the market will price it right soon.

Another disappointment I have is AGT. I always been wondering why there was a large unknown figure flickering in the quarterly report. Is probably the deposits redemption at play now. This is the unpredictable nature of equity investment even when we have confidence, to maintain diversification strategy. Prior to the result, I reduced my holding by 60% just to mitigate my risk or you can say "Take Profit" as it was additional purchase due to Jul/Aug lower level. Nevertheless 40% leftover do cause a drag in my portfolio.

Finally, my last pain is QAF. I did not reduce my exposure when it rebounded before the IPO cancellation. Need to remind myself again that Market do not care about what price I buy. It fluctuates to market sentiment and fundamental. Just not me.

Despite all this negativity, XIRR = 13.5% ytd ( excl. fixed investment ). (updated for privacy)

I have initiated small positions in SPH Reit and Singapore O&G.


Cory
20171121

Cory Diary : Is my Portfolio ready for the next leap ?

Read today headline ...

"Ex-HDB chief: Singapore must still aim for population of 10 million"

"He said planning without calculating the land resources available to support population growth could put us at risk of running out of land.

Dr Liu, who is also founding chairman of the Centre for Liveable Cities, added: "Before Singaporeans complain, they have to ask themselves: How long do you want Singapore to stay as a sovereign country?"

He is talking at Year 2100 but this bring back our whitepaper on the next leap in population. Yes, many people in different camps when we talk about population growth. We think of Singapore MRT .... haiz. I know Taipei for a long time and never once i encounter MRT breakdown. To be fair their line is younger by a decade and they did got hit by a major flood. Typhoon Nari flooded all underground tracks as well as 16 stations.

To me investing in Singapore equity means I see future in Singapore growth else I should go somewhere else. And planning must come in to support it. Is my Portfolio ready to ride with the population increase ? Don't miss the boat again ?



Cory
20171108

Cory Diary : Dividend Investing 2017 interim returns

REITs/TRUSTs

During this period CMT price has reduced after dividends as i blogged before result announced. Aims Reit as expected on DPU reduction but lesser which is good. Ascendas Reit i did a flip again. Netlink has been stable and I am rather happy with my exposure to it. Accordia has returned some and I am a little positive of the coming result. First Reit has good run as usual. There are others but this is what i can remember.

No doubt we all know Reits/Trusts generally have a good year so far. We still have 2 months to go before 2017 is done. How exactly is dividend investing doing so far for me ?

I have all my Reits/Trusts counters transactions computed in XIRR to know. Currently they constituted 34% of my portfolio ( minus cash ) since I am constantly doing re-balance. So how did I do ?

The answer is 20% returns for this 10 months. And therefore in this aspect is above STI returns ytd.

So far is an Awesome year for dividend investors.

Cory

20171028

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Cory Diary : Life Insurance - Part One

This article is to share my experience on an insurance policy i have for 20 years which I plan to surrender at appropriate time. Do note this maybe specific with my insurance company and time frame which may vary widely in expectation with others.

Insurance : Whole Life Plan wTPD and have reach 20 years where I am entitled Bonus (Guaranteed and Non-Guaranteed). I heard about cases where the non-guaranteed portion did not happen to expectation. So wonder do the unfortunate happen to me too. :P


Insured amount : $70K (~)
Cash back received : $25K (~)
Monthly Payment: $200 (~ )
Last check with support call : Net Surrendered Value about $50K (~)

When I check for surrender procedures here's what I got.


"We are sorry to hear of your intention to surrender your policy.

May we say that it is not to your advantage to surrender a policy because:
(1) Your insurance protection comes to an immediate end.
(2) Your surrender value could be less than the basic premiums paid, especially in the early years of the policy.
(3) You pay a higher premium for a new policy in the future.
(4) The premium for a new policy may not be as attractive as before. Or, you may not even be offered a policy at all.

You may wish to consider other alternatives. You could:
(1) Convert the policy to a Paid-Up Assurance or Extended Term Assurance without having to pay further premiums.
(2) Reduce the Sum Assured and pay a smaller premium.
(3) Continue the policy under Automatic Premium Loan (APL)* provision, until it is convenient for you to repay the loan.
(4) Take a Policy Loan * if you need cash quickly.

* (Interest on APL and Policy Loan is currently at 6.0% per annum on the daily balance.)

Should you still decide to surrender your policy, please complete and submit the attached forms to us for processing. Please note that faxed or scanned copies of the forms are not acceptable."

If I compute all my returns and premium paid to date for every transactions, and if my surrendered value indeed realized per their confirmation, XIRR roughly 4%. If so is like a form of saving with Insurance element in it. 

Currently the surrender process is a hassle as I am based oversea. So it may take a while before I initiate my request formally.

thanks

Cory

20171022

Cory Diary : Portfolio Talks

I have been in the market like 20 years. Is mostly about speculations in the early years of investment with some help using NTA, or dabble in Warrant plays. (updated for privacy) . Active portfolio is much more significant now.

Stock market do not works by "Annual Way" like I do in my annual bookkeeping. So I have annualized return figure of my investment life. However this is still important because performance needs to be closely monitored just like companies reporting their quarterly and annual results to keep management on their toes. If you take care of your quarterly, your annual result will be ok.

Assuming 2017 stays good, out of recent 11 years, I have three losses in 2008 (50% loss) , 2011(13% loss)  and 2015 (5% loss). As you can see, Year 2008 is mind changing for those who are heavily invested. Is like from Ah Boys to Men lifetime event.

( Ignore this statement if you are not familiar with XIRR : The year 2008 is particular interesting because when I use XIRR to compute for my case, it can show 0% loss instead of 50% loss. This got to do with multiple solutions to the equation. This is easily caught since I have large absolute loss that year which therefore I easily tweaked the XIRR formula on the 3rd "guess" field with "-0.1" which point towards negative direction or I believe the proportion losses to my portfolio size. Usually this is not a problem)

This event teaches me about cut loss, war chest and what is fear about. Some people bounce back, some do nothing and some never return. For those who long, quite a few make huge profits after that miserable year.

There are many teachers in my investment journeys of which I keenly remembered three namely Warren Buffett, Dennis Ng and AK. And I do a Rojak from their advice. Surely there are other sifus and bloggers who influence my styles some. Last but not least, always remember many people are interested in your money. Learn to protect and do grow old with them.


Cory
20171021

Cory Diary : Review of my investment in CAPITALAND MALL TRUST ( CMT )

One of my Core Investment. Do a fast routine review of it today. If remember correctly, last year end dec price is $1.885. My XIRR based on it is 18% YTD including dividends and gains from some trading in between.  If you are vested since then, congratulation. Reits have a good run this year (touch wood). Will the game last longer ?

Since 2008, CMT fluctuates between $1.7 to $2.3 with some "random" quick spikes. At current Price $2.06, i feel it still doesn't look over-priced for 5.4% yield for such a large Reits that hold Singapore key locations. Their Malls are still as busy as ever.

From the Chart there seems to be a higher low. I noted my increasing cash level. With profit buffer created, and coming result which i expect to be around flat at min., I decided there are more pro than con to build my up my invest amount. I could be wrong with my assumption and likely be fine with it from the dividends harvests later.

A quick exposure check on CMT is less than 7% of my SG equity. The yield is still better than many other investment instruments. More importantly is something I feel safer for my age.


Cory
20171017

Cory Diary: Good Bye - Global Logistic Properties

Quite late in the game on this. Only enter the game in Feb'17 but never late than never. One of my deliberation is due to the influence of Reit yield on my estimation of GLP value. Well, I am not exactly right considering GLP potential and Strategic assets especially so when they have international importance.

In the end, revised my estimation and arrive a fairer value of $3 at minimum which I then entered my positions. Nevertheless not much. Hindsight is so great ....

Here's my XIRR roughly 36 % inclusive of dividends. Absolute 22 % return.

(updated for privacy)

I could have hold till the end for few more percent gains and save the trading cost but that means half year of opportunity cost and go risk be it minimal or not. Decided not as I can re-invest easily with such gains.

thank you GLC.

Cory

20171013

Cory Diary: Rude Awakening - Sarine Tech

Sarine Tech has been slumping since end 2014. If a stock is to fit into low can get lower, this maybe the one. This stock has been on my radar for few years.

What so interesting about it is that it has unique technology and kind of "monopoly" on the diamond cutting segment. A world leader in diamond cutting technology. This seems to have a strong moat so how wrong can it goes on fundamental. It is also on one of Edge selected stock before. There are so many pluses to invest in.

Temptation was pretty high to have a stake in it but I did not and missed all the opportunities at 1.8, 1.6, 1.5 etc.... as i feel something is not right. I could not connect the centuries old manual cutting, india, isreal, london market and diamond trades.

This morning i saw it slumped more than 10% erasing all the gains since 2013. That's the danger of stock investing and why one must do diversification. Even with that, ones have to be careful with ones own money even if is just 1% of your net-worth.

 It will be nice to hear views from those who are still vested. Fundamental, Market and current situation. What's the hell is going on as the story of the business sounds good. Trade with care my friend. Invest with care double !


Cory
20171011

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q4 2017 Oct Update

Is  way past Oct'17.  STI rides backup again. Below table is my Interim result.  Interim Q3 on link here. My investment life returns moved 0.1% lower down to 7.1% with passing time since I need increasing profits to maintain the score till year end.

STI YTD beats me today with 14.3% score.... . However my bottom base XIRR End of Year still moves up. It will be 12.6% year end if profit same at year end for annual comparison purposes.

There is some buying/selling but they are little changes . I did some shift to stronger fundamental companies allocation and on way to create a wider robust base for next year profit probability.

Current Investment sector as follow. Reits/Trusts only about 1/3 however they make up 2/3 of this year total return.

Cory
20171009