Cory Diary : Disappointing Singtel Results - Feb 2018

DJIA has been shaken twice within a short space of time after I blogged days before it on my concern of the correction coming and my fear of Crypto Currency. What I am more surprise is the weaker result than I anticipated of Singtel. Bad news like to come in a string.


Singtel

Did a quick glance on Singtel Results. Weaker associates result pull down overall performance but there are strong area and direction which management has been making proactively. Holding to most of the cash from Net-link sale is right move. FCF still look ok. Nevertheless, associates make up a good portion of Singtel earning and I am disappointed. While I think they can continue to maintain dividend without problem, I am not 100% sure that they want till they do.

For long term I still find Singtel is a much better and safer bet. And their investments are well positioned. For short term, DJIA volatility is a concern and I like to understand how this play out first. For Mid term it may takes more time for Singtel to transform. Therefore I decide to adjust my position size accordingly. Yes, peace of mind is important. And will re-balance the cash raised to be invested prudently at the right time.


Cory
20180209

Cory Diary : Investment Returns, Nerve-racking in uncertain time

For past few days the market has finally turned. How long will it last ? Frankly I dunno. It seems a long time that I have a feeling of correction coming. It will come, just not sure is it this time or next. The way crypto-currency direction is going seems busting is underway. Probably when we see US$5-6K range for further confirmation. If we are using USD to buy them, is actually double whammy considering USD has depreciated 10% for past one year. Will there be banks or institutions fall out ? So far no. I am still curious what have I missed but I never believe in Creepy Currencies since no value is created. I could be wrong and total miss out this "Investment" but I will still be ok. That's, the Logic.

What I did prior is successfully applied for Treasury. This is way after parking in fixed deposits and maximized my SSB. I will probably do more treasury applications as I have two more 2 years fixed deposits maturing soon. Time flies ! While I keep such investments off my equity investment book, in total it did keep my sg equity portfolio contained within my emotional limit.


Unnerving Logic

Compared to 2008, my 2017 SG portfolio now is far larger. Therefore I come to the sense that I could see 6 figures fluctuation in my portfolio if market did indeed correct. This realization is important for dividend investors who will be in the market mainly. Why ? See chart below.

Compounding works in both way. As my portfolio has been compounding up, naturally correction will mean reduction from the compounded level that i have gained and in absolute term will be quite discomforting. So what's matter is the percentage and no longer absolute reference even though we try to contain it at same level as a measure.


In the Market

Regardless, being in the market is important as 20 years in the market chart above has shown.With more than 40K dividend annually, is highly unlikely I will trade them off. Instead at the right time if I find good equity opportunity locally, I may be considering to liquidate my US stocks which has enjoyed significant gains. That will expand my sg dividend play to another level at lower price. And when market returns the dividend jump would be significant. My only concern is the weak USD.... darn .... we can never win everything.

If amateur Cory can make it, I think likely so can you.


Cory
20180203

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180130

2018 January is I feel a more memorable day for my portfolio other than in the black. Is the first time I have a proper clean up state of my Reit counters that is much better balanced to form a better core. Few things I did. Sold AGT moons ago. Sold SPH Reit some time back. And today, sold remaining lots of LMIR as well. Bought back Ascendas Reit and Ascendas HT.


LMIR

The more I learn about LMIR the more I am a little worried. The perpetual shares it has issued is a relatively huge burden. This obscure the gearing which I do not like at all. It would be much better if they are able to get private placement. Then the recent rating downgrade warning kind of sink in. With the current yield of more than 8%, they would need to find some way to raise money ( probably expensively ) this year or to further their acquisition. This is a red flag to me. Since I have achieved 15% returns since 2017 on this counter, is time to say good bye. I do love the yield. Sad.


SPH Reit

Negative revision is the outlook. It may get better but i do not like the few properties or the play on seletar mall to keep the price up. If the stock market is to turn, this won't be my core holding. The yield around 5% doesn't look so good despite the low gearing not gearing up.


Ascendas Hospitality Reit Trust

The plan to sell the two hotels look good considering the impact to dividend is minimal but the value unlocked is more than 10% of it's Nav. Furthermore, FHT results may have help my confidence a little.


Current Reits allocation is around 36% of  Equity Portfolio.


Cheers

Cory
20180130

Cory Diary : Treasury Bills , Low Return Safe Havens

Equity is a practical way to generate good returns for myself being a "kaisu" of me. However "kiasi" of me, no matter how good equity is, I need emergency fund and reserve fund for my property installments if I am unemployed permanently.

After maximizing Singapore Saving Bond ( SSB ) in the range of 2%+, I start to explore ways to optimize my cash other than fixed deposits. One way is Government Treasury Bills which I can apply locally through internet banking easily. The recent allocation is 1.35%. For people who is unfamiliar, here's the information I tried to get from the web. So dyodd. Easy money for me !


Treasury Bills

When I applied say $50K, the gov pays me for this example 1.38% returns for 1 year tenor bill, $690 ( coupon ) upfront immediately into my saving account ( below table ). After one year, they return $50K back to me. Internet application through internet banking account is a fly. MAS has done a good job in this area.

MAS Auction Result

There are few other things to know before applying.

1. Competitive and non-competitive bids.
As individual investor, use non-competitive. What this mean is that I will be allocated whatever the auction result is, to make my life simple. Is like a blind bid. So far I know, the return coupon is reasonable.

2. Government Security
Treasury bill is one of government security. So is safer than bank

3. Returns
Much better than Fixed Deposit for similar terms.

4. Coupon Payment
"Interests" are paid upfront. Principal return to you after period is up. Do note carefully the lockup term.
(You can sell in secondary market but could be a hassle to explore)
(Treasury bills are sold at a discount to face value, and the investor receives the face value when the T-bill matures)

5. Priced Local Dollar
S$ exposure when applied Singapore Gov Treasury Bills.

6. Quarterly Application
Bidding is open only on certain date quarterly

7. Tax
" Capital gains are not taxed in Singapore, and SGS interest income accrued to individual investors is currently exempt from tax. Furthermore, for all SGS issued after 28 Feb 1998, interest on SGS earned by non-residents who do not have any permanent establishments in Singapore is also tax-exempt. "


This is good place for parking money temporary as war chest as part of portfolio allocation. Is also a good way to have them tuck here for my property installment reserve.

This is Not emergency or immediate fund which I can tap. For long term, this is nowhere near CPF which maybe much better, and consideration of higher allocation for legacy and retirement needs.

Recently, I heard about Maxigain from Citibank which I can get 2% after lock up period like a year with some fine prints. I will research later.


Cory
20180128

Cory Diary : Ascendas Reit Third Quarter Results

DPU 3.97 cents. A reduction of 0.6% QoQ without Tax Exempt. The result is pretty decent if we take it as one-off of prior year. To be frank, there are many other positives and negatives adjustments, and risks in the financial. Is quite hard to assess whether this is the only main difference even if we are to run the Reit ourselves.

Below Chart is manual collection of the quarters result of Ascendas Reit. As you can see the distribution looks fair enough. 

The Reit occupancy at high 80 percent range for Singapore and 90 percent for Australia. I feel this is something we need to watch. Number of property managed 132. The gearing creeps up some but still relatively low. 70% of the loan is fixed rate.

Manager has elected to receive 20% of the base management fees in Units and the other 80% in cash. So if we want to do Reit comparison, this maybe a critical factor we need to compute as this can  inflate DPU result.

@2.75 price, yield is 5.8%. Surprise price up @2.84 yesterday. If the resistances are broken,  @3.17, yield will be 5%.

Cory

20180127

Cory Diary : Net Worth Insights

Tracking Net Worth with Excel has been a favorite hobby of mine. There are many ways to play with excel and generating charts.  This time i show it with different format for the fun of it. A more futuristic style I feel. The first chart below is time tracker of my net worth which i have collected since Year 2007. Considering I have been in the workforce almost 20 years, is more like a mid-life crisis initiated tracker.

As a reminder, this chart is from a salaried man, not a spender, as in lifestyle has not change much for past 15 years. Neither is there inheritance nor toto money in it as I would wish to have. The vertical axis is the dollar value. It tracks my net worth ( top line ), liquid asset (mid) and Sg Equity ( bottom ) over the years. The Sg Equity will need more time to develop and comprehend.

There are exceptions in the chart. My Insurance value did not truly reflect the surrender value but estimated conservative valuation. Excluded is foreign equity which are tied to cash values, share options and corporate shares which can be material. Value will also change with currency rate and mix.

Net worth line has been growing nicely. On liquidity line, takes me less than 2 years to recover to my pre-investment level in a private apartment. Half due to equity investment returns and the other from salary and bonuses.

Next, the details of the Net Worth is make up as below. Almost 1/3 equity, 1/3 long term and 1/3 short term. This has not change for some time.

The main issue I see now is that the saving segment is too large and my 2018 goal is to allocate them into more productive use. Whatever I do, the allocated amount has to be safe and available to support my investment property payment needs. Some portion to return all of my CPF loans. I probably need to compute it correctly to ensure I have ample cash level as it will be a hassle to withdraw CPF and impossible after 55.


Cory
20180122

Cory Diary : Comforting or not

Have been monitoring ComfortDelGro for a while but never in it for long term investment. Reason being simple. The competition is keen and they are cutting at each other throat. A lot of blood. I have a lot of concerns. Nevertheless I got some when it got near $2. However after reading their earning report, I think Oil price matters.

News : ComfortDelGro and Uber launch UberFLASH services in Singapore

When today news is out on the tie up with Uber, I decided to sell my shares which I bought for 2.8% profit. Just a little kopi money and for my concern of the creeping oil price. Don't get me wrong. This is still a good company but timing seems not right now. If the price continues to go up, good for them and shareholders. And I will just have to keep looking.


Cory
19 Jan 2018

Cory Diary : You don't have to Swing

Just watched one of Warran Buffett video. Buffett says, is that you don't have to swing at every pitch.

"The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, 'Swing, you bum!,' ignore them. "

He make it so easy to understand. Indeed I should ignore. Missed opportunity is ok. Just don't lose my pant. Every bullet counts ! If the market has nothing worthy to buy, just watch.

I did cut a "Medical Cancer" today which I should not have swinged. Thanks Goodness. I feel so mentally healthy after.  One thing I learned from a Guru is that Clinic Business is dependent on Skilled Doctor. Without them, you get a shell company.

Have a wonderful Monday !


Cory

20180115

Cory Diary : Year 2018 Planning

What will Year 2018 be for Investor like me ?

Let's start with STI index. If we remembered an earlier article I wrote on crisis, NK crisis likely will not affects economic activity as it is not a financial originated one ( see link). That's turn out to be good so far for 2017, and that we should continue to stay invested. People who try to time on such events and get out of investment will be out-of-luck !

Based on last year div, the current STI price yield is roughly 2.8x% (DYODD). This may implied potential STI upside to hit 3800 range I think. Will it be ? No one can guarantee but I do feel the probability is higher if is to be based on my own Yield and Chart support levels.


Driving for returns

One thing I learn from 2017 is that I am a little conservative. Therefore, I hope to be able to re-balance some of my bonds to higher yield direction. And to move more cash to more dividend play. Yes, is tough to find more counters to manage. Alternatively, is to expand each counter proportionally at the right time and it requires more due diligence. 


Every bullet counts

In 2017 I have been quite trigger happy. One of the reason is I am over-zealous in trying to stay invested every time funds are available from profit taking. With stronger cash flow in 2018, I need to watch my equity entry more carefully and allows my war chest to build-up if needed. 

Optimizing my cash and lower yield segments

With strong 2017 and Fresh Funds, Investable will increase. This is the result of better bonus, higher salary and dividends. One of my challenge is how to ensure a sum long enough to sustain for my housing loan in case the equity market took a turn, personal spending increases and out-of-job. However, a large sum of money idling in the bank account is a sore eye.

Possible options I can think of is maximising my SSB, larger FD and topping up my CPF OA.

Asset Management

CPF, I have been a little slow in actively managing this area for my retirement. So maximizing my SA will be one of my goals. Transferred more funds to CPF SA account for higher basic retirement return assurance this week. Yes ! I know is one-way street.

A little CPF OA fund was used in my property purchase. This is a mistake. I hope to return them when I can. If is not done this year, will be next. 

Will plan to surrender one of my insurance policy when times are good so that the bonus portion will be nice i thought.  I could be wrong but I should be ok.



Happy 2018

Cory
20180106

Cory Diary : Financial Well-being Ending 2017

Year 2017 has been awesome for many investors. Based on many financial bloggers so far, double digits gain are a norm. And this keeps me thinking about how unfair to saver is where some will die for $1000 while those who are more adventurous makes $100K extra just sitting in his living room tweeting with his spare time.

Even when one step out of his comfort domain, a double digits gain of 10K in absolute returns are no where near to one with 100K portfolio for example. And here come the chicken and egg things. We need to achieve a good size portfolio to benefit from scale and returns but we can't jump the gun as we need to fall and learn when small, and grow them. This takes time for most people probably.


Saving and Net Worth

In 2017, I have achieved 45% in saving from salary and bonus. This is a nice surprise since I do not track them deliberately to save. It just occurs naturally to me what is worth to buy and value to enjoy however I knew spending were up given that I have been giving regular treats to friends and colleagues. Total Net worth is probably up 10%, and that's quite significant for me on the last decade of my working lifespan.


Anxiety Freak

One of the blessings I had is not having dividend target in my early years. I only have few K dividend then and they just happens to receive it. They just grew slowly over the years with portfolio size. I did a re-balance in 2013 and never look back. However if I am to start with a dividend target on current size that time it can be a bit demoralising. There won't be target for 2018 on Net worth as usual as there aren't a robust plan and specific needs to start. I will leave this for the future. Liquid net worth portion increased by almost 12% and this do allows me to project a higher SG equity dividend target of 45k-50k. A situation where money grow money.

One step at a time

One last thing for today into my diary. The road to prosperity for people without inheritance or financially strong family are not that straight forward. We need to find our way to get the best education within financial limit. And then get a good job and save to grow our Net Worth. To learn financial literacy from scratch is something oneself has to fix. One is handicapped if we are not optimally invested. Is even harder when we do not have a regular job to save the required to build. Even when we overcome all this problems, able to invest and win enough is another challenge investors have to beat.  But this is not impossible to start doing something today in baby step that I have went through. And the bottom lies with Passion I feel. Once we open our minds to it and have a plan that can overcome the risk adversity.

Happy 2018

Cory
20180103