Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170916, STI Comparison

When 5.05 pm hits yesterday, STI ended lower at 3209.56 which is sweet and bitter. What this mean is STI has performed 11.4% increase ytd excluding dividend. Is a little bitter because if you look at the chart below STI Index is one of my larger position. Interestingly my XIRR excluding "Fixed Income" hits 12% finally beating STI if we exclude dividends. No prize for my next milestone.

There is no fresh fund injection since last withdrawal in April. I do not foresee fund injection till end of year. Trading has been curbed some. However as I may have stated previously, a goal for my dividends to cover all of my monthly loans will be a nice target to hit. Is already Sept and it will be nice if I have a concrete plan into next year strategy. Things in my minds.

• What stocks may run up ?
• What Stocks to keep for dividends ?
• What counters to minimize volatility ? 
• What fund size to target ?
• How will Local market perform ?
• What sector i should focus in ?
• What currency to be heavier in ?
• What to cut loss ?
• What to take profit ?
• What to diversified

Cory
20170916

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170903

The market has been a little boring. I try to fill my time and not subject myself to unnecessary trades which has been creeping into my profits which currently cost about 0.6% of my portfolio.

So what I did ? Has been active recently on my "Retirement Hobbies". Realized that I have been circling around them after grown tired after a period of frantic activities. :-) One of my hobbies that I have been in it hits more than 20 years i think. Sorry I don't keep track of them like what I do on my trading.

C. sodalis

Did a major clean up using Soda flour and Lime powder to massage the glass. The Aquarium tank looks as good as new.

There are two new species I bought recently. C. sodalis. A very shy fish species. The other C. duplicareus. Apologies for any mis-spelling. One of my favorite.

C. duplicareus

As for my recent trades,


LMIR

Cleared my holding in LMIR. Reason being i have less time to monitor the coming volatility of it. Another being I have 13% returns from it this year which is a good time to lock it.


DBS

Start vesting in small amount. Still wary on the strong STI. However this help to track a little closer to Index which is still far from it.


CAPITAMALL TRUST

Has moved up to my expected level. Excellent run since I last blogged a few times on this Reit. The return and future expectation are intact. To manage my exposure, I reduced some but is still my core holding.


Lastly, Singtel entered some correction phase. I did nothing. I also notice NetLink NBN Tr has held up well after stabilization period. I did some other counters trade as well but will blog when i think of it. To end it all, my Xirr non-fixed is around 11.6% this year return alone. STI 13.8% excluding dividends. So I am just a little shy but am still happy it stays this way till year end.



Cheers

Cory
20170903

Cory Diary : North Korea Crisis on Stock Market Volatility 2017

During April this year I wrote about non-financial crisis events have minor or short term impact to stock market. To refresh memory here's the ( link.)  Chances are this North Korea War on Words will come to past. While there maybe a small chance on Nuclear Black Swan Event, this is rather hard to predict as we are dealing with two egoistic adult humans.

What I did ? I have to stay invested as dividend investor but did some re-balance on my portfolio. Raised some more cash for opportunity. YTD my dividends have hit $30K. So getting the last $10K may not be impossible task with reduced exposure.

Another reason is after hitting 10% gains this year, I like to gain some buffer to reduce the trough in my cyclic returns across the years even though they are trending up. Hopefully this will give me better results. Here's the link on my annualized returns wrote in Jun'17 ( Link ).Time will tell.


Cory
20170812

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q3 2017 July Update

July month just pasted. We have 5 more months to go. As everyone know, STI has been on winning streak this year. People who are wholly invested in banks expected to record significant gains. How I do so far without investing in them this year ?

Below table is the Interim Q3'17 July result. A further improvement from Final Q2 on link here.
My investment life returns moved up to 7.2%. I thought this is nice despite laden with PS and Bonds.

STI YTD further it' gain to 15.5% so despite Cory returns of 12% YTD, I am still in catch-up mode ..... but the picture is a lot better than start of year with an expanded portfolio from past years. This is also mitigated by Core holding STI ETF which I would not sell easily.

Results were mixed across the portfolio else I would have leveled against STI. Fortunately a number of speculative contra trading helps to improve. Dividends wise, moved up to about 30K for this 7 months. So you can do a rough estimate on my portfolio and gains . :)


Reits
Generally they did well. I have not much complains. Allocations still need some fine-tuning probably. Yield range between 5%-8%.

Neratel
Neratel is a new position. However the result down due to tax. This is a little unfortunate else I would maintain my recent found gains. I still has some confidence in them but we need to watch closely.

Design Studio
The quarter result doesn't look good. Fortunately I locked in some gains (link) which kind of act as a good buffer for the down side. The half year looks so so, again stay nimble.

Singtel
Manage to hold off ok after Ex-dividends. I look forward to reduce debts or better revenue improvement instead of special dividends. So the withholding of the cash from netlink trust ipo for business needs I think is a good move. 


Cory
20170806

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 2Q'2017

Is another profitable period for Sheng Siong. Last time when I blogged about this Supermarket ( link ) on 23rd Feb'17, price was $ 0.955. It moved up to $1.005 before recent Amazon news pull down the stock before recovering at $0.96. There was a div in May'17 of $0.0185. So theoretically speaking, without this news it would have hit more that $1.005 after report.

If Amazon market segment target is Sheng Siong ones, I think it will be a mistake. So I am not so worried about it.  The impact will probably be more on the branding against existing online retailers and certain extend on Super Market like Cold Storage. So i dip for a little more on low.

Dividends

"Declared interim dividend of 1.55 cent per share". Last August it was 1.9 cent. Therefore a reduction. I did note this statement. "After paying the final dividend for FY 2016 in 2Q2017, cash and cash equivalents increased by $6.2m to $69.6m as at 30 June 2017."


Growth

My take is the next few quarters will be more retail space for growth so we will see stronger rev. There maybe a dip due to woodland after closure but if there is, will likely be temporary. From Sheng Siong results presentation, Woodlands closure is now by Oct which means next report 3Q'17 may not have large impact from it.


Risk 
The next level of risk is the China investment. US$6 Million investment. 


DYODD.
Cory
20170729

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170726

STI has been almighty this year. And i start reviewing my portfolio for more stringent safety.
The changes are on my personal trades and those that I can remember offhand. Please DYODD.



HYFLUX 6% PCS

With the run-up this year on this Pref shares and the profit guidance just announced, I decided to clear my little holding I have for 10% returns this year. Net for this counter is slightly negative. The catalyst possibly the sale of Singapore Plant but I decided not to wait.


NetLink NBN Tr

I have expanded my holding in this counter. My take is that annualized yield is reasonable and good cash flow (FCF) should be good for coming quarters. The ducts have long service life and cables probably good for long term. Therefore the depreciation of asset is more for accounting and no impact to FCF. The risk of technology is there but I think is low. Monopoly in retail market is a good plus and the recurring income is nice. Returns of more than 5.x% is good enough.

Cory
20170726

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 2Q17 ( CMT )

Here's the headline today

"CMT 2Q 2017 net property income up 1.2% year-on-year Achieves higher distribution per unit despite closure of Funan for redevelopment"

DPU within expectation. The threat of online shopping on CMT has been mute which has many strategic asset locations to benefit from. Before the result announced, share price has climbed up to $2.00. And Investor will have another quarterly distribution. At current price, is about 5.5% stable yield which is way better than fixed deposits and ofcourse with different risk level. But frankly, if we cannot accept (except) CMT risk, there is not many stocks we can invest in.

The MOS and Catalyst will be Funan. And again management statement on continuing to focus on sustaining DPU is the right one that I agree with because there is good chance it can go lower in 2018/2019 considering the macro environment on malls and the larger leases renewal before Funan is ready. The question is if it does, how much ? Do we buy more in stages (cheaper ?), do we take profit/cut loss or do nothing ? To me ability to sustain is already a good achievement. I also note that shopper traffics are still there and this is good for CMT malls.

Ex-Div in 27th July'17. Collect Dividend first lah. Think later.


Cheers

Cory
2017-0721

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170719

Here's another post on my recent trades but not all I can remember. The last time i post is here link. I try to stay as accurate as i can remember.


ASCENDAS REIT

I have managed to build back and more such that it has become one of my reit core holding. Using my basic TA skill, i thought 2.57 is a nice entry point but I start to dip for it at 2.62 and 2.58. I did sell some to resize my investment amount at 2.63. It now occupies 4%+ of my non-fixed equity. I am so glad to be back and with good 4 digits trading profit buffers. This investment is to plan for my next year returns and support of 6% dividends from it.


OKP

Did a punting on OKP when it dropped but miss the bottom in seconds. ( angry )...  so sold off my holding with some kopi money. I am not familiar with the future impact and feel MOS may not be good enough. This trade is basically for trying.


GLP

If you may know, I profited from recent takeover of GLP. This one is s bit of nerve. I have 12 lots originally. When it dropped to 2.76 prior to the announcement i sold 4 lots to re-size my exposure. Fortunately or so otherwise, the Offer is good. I benefited from the 8 lots remaining. And some from profits from the 4 lots sold. Not too bad for some one who is late into the GLP game just this year. 20% returns for a red dot speculation trade.


Design Studio

My exposure in this counter is quite large. I took some profit when it run up so that I can sleep better. This counter is still quite good considering the 10% dividend level and the company expected to run ok. Don't ask me can the performance be sustained. I don't know, and I am still vested. Just stay nimble I guess.


Cory
20170719

Cory Diary : Singtel 2017-0714

Let's start with some data background of Singtel. I do this fast. Apologize for any error and DYODD.

Since 2013, Singtel has been fluctuating within a big band of $3.3 to $4.5 range. During this time, annual distribution is about 17 cents ( not exact but growing ) which easily totaled roughly 90 cents. Right now the stock price is 60 cent below the top range. And current yield is about 4.4%. Revenue kind of flat.

About S$3B FCF annually. Last year we see a little dip to about dividend support level despite no noticeable increase in capex. As for Netlink Trust, never mind about the regulatory requirement. Netlink Trust IPO comes as a right time for Singtel. At 81 cents, they raised more than $2B which not only cover years of dividend support but also the increase of spectrum cost. On top of this,  $50 M recurring income from it.

I thought this is master stroke on realizing the value of Singtel asset. Considering Singtel retained 24.99%, Netlink still rest securely under Temasek hands. How long can the music last, let's evaluate again later with more quarterly reports.


Cory
20170714

Cory Diary : Accordia Golf Trust 20170707

This post is special. Is a sharing of Q&A with Brenda, Senior Manager, Investor Relations, AGT. Is rather informal so do not put a magnifying glass into it.  I am honored to have an opportunity to chat with Brenda to know the Trust better. Do note this is not an invitation to invest/sell/hold.


Q&A

1. Share about Continue Impairment loss from last Q report

Generally the impact is cashless and more on accounting purposes on P/L.

2. How do you view AGT in 3-5 years periods.

Viewing from coming Olympics context. AGT is more of Middle Class category of golf courses targeting leisure segment. So it won't be in the selection for it. Most of the golfers are locals. The focus is more on how to optimize weekday plays. There is also focus on schools and women to come to the courses.

3. How do we mitigate weather and natural disaster

There is limited thing we could do for weather. However, weather conditions are only short-term. It could be a bad weather year for 2016 while AGT has a warmer weather in 2015 (warmer weather is better for golf). One way is to have driving range. Insurance for natural disaster is financially not viable. The loss is more on revenue due to golf closure rather than any damage to the courses. For example, we closed at maximum 1 week for one of our golf course during the 2016 Kyushu earthquake.

4. Is there plan for expansion

There is loan coming up in august and will be the focus. There is still room for loan(current Loan-to-value is below 29%) and will be the preference, and rights issue is unlikely given the current Unit Price as and when there is expansion after.

5. Dividend distribution expectation

AGT hopes to continue its 100% distribution of Distributable Income Available. Currently, the mandate is to distribute 90% of its Distributable Income.


Cory
20170707

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170703

Here's my current holding.

REITs - This sector has been star performer in first half of 2017. However not all the same. I am fortunate to have quite a number of bright stars here. They easily constitute 40% of my portfolio. Bulk of my dividends hopefully for the years to come.

TELCO - The only possible segment which i feel there is still good room for 2nd half growth. Singtel's Netlink IPO is a catalyst. But Singtel should be more than that.

STI ES3 - I have reduced my holding largely. Nevertheless it is still quite a size-able amount in my portfolio. This move protected some of my earning this year if there is market wide retreat in 2nd half. I hope to have it build back at right price.

BOND/PREFERENCE - Not much except that I have Singapore Saving Bond removed from tracking.
I am still well invested in the SSB.

Global Logistic is the wild card for 2nd half. Let see how it goes. I have 75% confidence.
It will be great if the deal takes off and at good premium.

The Green has been boring and missing much from the run up in this 2nd Q.

Currently looking into Banks, CDG, Jumbo, Keppel, Wilmar and more REITs ....

Cory
20170703

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Final Q2 2017 June Update

Today is the last day of Q2 '17. After my May Month Interim, managed to buy back, and more on Ascendas Reit, and FLT Reit which I earlier sold some this week. Glad with given the chance to fill back the hole I dig in my portfolio before the next REITs reporting season starts. I have also done more trading but it maybe too hard to blog each of them. Portfolio trend is lesser STI Index, due to strong run in banks.

Here's Q2'17 result. A further improvement from interim Q2 on link here.

With STI YTD returns about 12% currently, Cory Q2 returns of 9.8% YTD requires a little more ( excl. Div ) to catch-up. However compared to start of the year, the result has largely improved. Few things did well to improve my returns.

Good
- Regional exposure through Reits
- Singtel impact by 4th Telco is minimal compared to others

Bad
- QAF continue softening this week



Cory
20170630