Cory Diary : World knows how to deal with Covid-19

The last time when SARS outbreak, by this month of the year, the market is in good recovery mode. Covid-19 is slightly extended as it spreads much more wider and deeper. It kills by overloading the health care systems. And has to make tough decision on who to save.

UK attempted Herd Immunity, failed and finally got it stabilized. Boris got "an education" from God that every lives matter. Lucky fellow.

US attempted to block off travel from China but got surprised by the Virus going through the back door (EU). Block failed and finally got it stabilized. They talk about lethal Injection. Talk only lah. Blame China is Trump thing. Blame WHO put it on Trump too. He don't care anyway.

SG too block China off and do all the tough contact tracing. However the large migrant concentration in pack dormitories is a perfect recipe for the Virus. Karma thing sibo.  Basically the migrant population is so large is not possible to stop easily. Cases stabilized too and if not herd immunity will if you know what I mean.
Brazil and probably Mexico or Latin Countries I would guess will be classic. Let's there be parties.They will do the Maya way. Death statistic is not important. Food is. Girl too. ;)

China lock down plus lock down multiply by lock down. We will achieve the impossible because we can. Russia mai ti siao. US better stop complaining. Follow me ! ... ... ...

Russia .... in deepening trouble but who the world cares at least economically. Maybe lower Oil price. Does Putin bother ? Saudi Kia.

Taiwan remains undefeated. Is a Cultural thing. "A" student which amazingly do not need WHO at all to manage it. huh ?  World pays Billions ? How much go to the Salary ? Politically incorrect lah ! ... ok ok.

One way or another the World has learned how to deal with it. Social Distancing + Mask. Perfect ! Does that mean No Bull Trap ? Good chance lor.

Hello ! how come No mask ? Better stay 10 feet away from Uncle Cory. Grrrrr.



Cory
2020-0509

Cory Diary : Warren Buffet - Performance in perspective

One thing good about internet to the investment community is that it narrows the gap between people with privilege information and those who don't. This mean those who are rich or hedge funds do not always have the large edge they once do.



Performance since Year 1990

A quick search on the internet on Warren Buffet performance in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as follow.

1st Jun 1990 Stock Value $7,300
1st May 2020 Stock Value $ 273,950

Pretty amazing value growth. That's mean for every $7300 invested  in the Year 1990 which is 30 years ago, the return is 38 times at today value even after significant write down by the company due to Covid-19. XIRR wise is 13% over the 30 years period for an Investment Guru. For a Singaporean, the exchange rate changes from 1.74 to 1.42 across this long period. After adjustment will be 12.1%.


Performance since Year 2007

How does Cory performance since Year 2007 compounded. XIRR = 6%. That's half his compared to above. For consolation, STI Index is around 2% inclu. div..... .. ...

How about Berkshire Hathaway Inc. In USD since Year 2007. Is only 7.3%. Surprise ! What-if in S$ ?  That's 6.7%. That's not a lot above Cory. Maybe the company is holding too much cash ?


Cory
2020-0503

Cory Diary : Performance Apr''20

Mentally I have been preparing for the day as when the portfolio gets bigger, every 1% drop translate to much bigger absolute figures. In Year 2008 GFC, the portfolio suffers about 50% losses however the losses amount to $50,000. In Year 2020, the portfolio got hits with more that 24% loss however this translates to $250,000 loss. 5 times highers but with less than half % portfolio reduction. This are just Math and if we are to go through stock market history this can happen. If this doesn't happen, we probably not investing enough.

To mitigate this issue mentally especially so for a salary person, my idea is to Buffer the Fear from the market. This is one primary reason why investment in bonds, gov securities and fixed deposits. Even emergency cash is higher. So what is not seen in equity tracker is SSB, FD and Cash but we do have bonds as it is traded in SGX. There are few times I am tempted to sell my SSB but decided it does not make sense considering they are delivering 2%-2.5% guaranteed for many years to come.

Cory Portfolio has a mixed of STI Index, Bonds, Reits, Blue Chips and a small percentage in SMEs. So when the sell down begins due to Covid-19, Banks, Reits and STI Index are heavily sold down. However, core stock assets continue to be held. In fact some injection is done to collect stocks on the cheap slowly as previously mentioned. There is also some re-balancing to consolidate and invest.

As of today, the stock portfolio is -6.5%.  XIRR about -6.9%. STI Index at -18.5%. So by such measure we are 12% ahead or roughly 10% if we include STI ETF dividends already distributed.

There is still good amount of cash to buy if the market turns south however I am reluctant to tap them unless we have clear trend that the market is getting much worst or the worst is over.

There are few things which I did. One is doing some trading between the volatility. There is not much fundamental to speak of but just a relative risk assessment when market mis-priced certain stocks. This happen a lot more nowsaday.

The month of May will be interesting because we know a lot of dividends get distributed usually on this month which probably explains why "Sell in May movement". This year quite a number of dividends got retained or cut. Well I could be wrong but no plan to do major changes in my portfolio. If the sell down is a little severe I could start my buying again.

As for stocks selections, there are quite a few I would avoid other than the usually S-Chips.
If we go by sector will be Transport, Commodity, Hospitality, Medical and Telco Stocks. Most SMEs and Penny Counters. This left with me STI Index, Banks, Reits and a selected few generally. 



Cory
2020-0520