Mentally I have been preparing for the day as when the portfolio gets bigger, every 1% drop translate to much bigger absolute figures. In Year 2008 GFC, the portfolio suffers about 50% losses however the losses amount to $50,000. In Year 2020, the portfolio got hits with more that 24% loss however this translates to $250,000 loss. 5 times highers but with less than half % portfolio reduction. This are just Math and if we are to go through stock market history this can happen. If this doesn't happen, we probably not investing enough.
To mitigate this issue mentally especially so for a salary person, my idea is to Buffer the Fear from the market. This is one primary reason why investment in bonds, gov securities and fixed deposits. Even emergency cash is higher. So what is not seen in equity tracker is SSB, FD and Cash but we do have bonds as it is traded in SGX. There are few times I am tempted to sell my SSB but decided it does not make sense considering they are delivering 2%-2.5% guaranteed for many years to come.
Cory Portfolio has a mixed of STI Index, Bonds, Reits, Blue Chips and a small percentage in SMEs. So when the sell down begins due to Covid-19, Banks, Reits and STI Index are heavily sold down. However, core stock assets continue to be held. In fact some injection is done to collect stocks on the cheap slowly as previously mentioned. There is also some re-balancing to consolidate and invest.
As of today, the stock portfolio is -6.5%. XIRR about -6.9%. STI Index at -18.5%. So by such measure we are 12% ahead or roughly 10% if we include STI ETF dividends already distributed.
There is still good amount of cash to buy if the market turns south however I am reluctant to tap them unless we have clear trend that the market is getting much worst or the worst is over.
There are few things which I did. One is doing some trading between the volatility. There is not much fundamental to speak of but just a relative risk assessment when market mis-priced certain stocks. This happen a lot more nowsaday.
The month of May will be interesting because we know a lot of dividends get distributed usually on this month which probably explains why "Sell in May movement". This year quite a number of dividends got retained or cut. Well I could be wrong but no plan to do major changes in my portfolio. If the sell down is a little severe I could start my buying again.
As for stocks selections, there are quite a few I would avoid other than the usually S-Chips.
If we go by sector will be Transport, Commodity, Hospitality, Medical and Telco Stocks. Most SMEs and Penny Counters. This left with me STI Index, Banks, Reits and a selected few generally.
Cory
2020-0520
This few months has been interesting experience. For new investor is harrowing ones. If I could remember we are near the time frame where SARs basically stabilized and market was in recovery process. Covid-19 impact is not the same in the sense we have Trade War, Currency War and Oil Impacts going-on all rolled into one. This Pandemic is much more wider hitting shores of Europe and Americas. How long this will take is anybody guess.
For me personally, birth of 2nd Daughter, increase Job Scope and some personal harrowing life experiences all rolled during this period. Expenses will be expected to shoot up though not as much as first born. My wife chipping in to help on nappy and nanny expenses. She sold all her shares before Covid-19 really hits. Shiok ah ! More money for my investment. 😂
At one time my portfolio is down $250k which is 5 times of Year 2008 GFC amount but interestingly I do ok mentally but just a bit fuzzy when wife called me on some errands. Well, STAYING VESTED in market is so important because portfolio recovered significantly for my Portfolio setup and selection. I want to mention this because different selection may gives different result. I still have about 50% warchest to play with. Don't think we are out of the wood yet because I can't confirm. LOL
Reits gearing increase to 50% is the positive step to take as this will alleviate needs for rights issue with deferred payment of tenants. Even without this deferment, I think this should have been done for GFC 2008 as well that time. Anyway this is just regulatory paper play. Just like USA unlimited QE. Thanks for this, the world probably adverted Depression. Depression is not the emotional aspect that I am referring to in case some new investors thought this is what I mean but certainly will lead to if the GREAT DEPRESSION is not adverted. This event if one is to search through history is horrible to the poor and middle class. We will stop complaining of the money printing because the cost is much much cheaper. It may rewards the Rich but not everyone.
Taking stock on current portfolio status. Reits/Trusts abut 59%. Fixed Equity 16%. Portfolio yield dropped to 6% because of recent "market euphoria". Is not the perfect description of it as we are still in recovery phase or ...... ( touch wood). Performance wise -8% roughly. We have 10% gap between me and STI Index. Slightly lesser after considering Index dividends issued. Starting to take stock of my loan, asset, FD, SSB, emergency funds and free cash again for the next stage of development. Yes, the more cash the merrier ... 2 more weeks to go.
Cory
2020-0418
Have not been so active here and expects to be in the near future unless market keeps me more excited. I have taken up writing , drawing cutie, and recording down my plans literally on paper. I find this keep me interested as I pan out my stock plan when the market beat down my portfolio. Recent weeks the portfolio looks much better as Reits re-bounded.
I made some new acquisition recently which I would have not, if not due to Covid-19 driven prices. My portfolio YTD is smaller than End Year 2019 by about 6.5% excluding cash. However one interesting thing is Year 2019 theoretical dividends $53,144. Achieved $52,899. For Year 2020, theoretical dividends $62,168. So about $10K free dividends more. So if the market goes lower, I would probably hit for another $5k or more dividends.
Below is the stock list in my portfolio which I like to talk briefly on each of them. This are just Reits/Trusts in today scope. I think going through why I have them is important because we need most of them in sound footing to deliver or well mitigated.
ASCENDAS-ITrust
This is recent buy. A price I would never imagine to attempt Pre-Covid. Is my search for non-sg exposure that I decided to have some on this which is heavily discounted. Is an infant position. Reason being India Covid-19 situation is also being played out.
ACCORDIA GOLF TR
Have been holding to my existing shares since Pre-Covid if I could remember. The non-binding proposal to buy the golf course is taking longer than expected. Japan aren't handling perfect so far which probably put this into extended limbo. Nevertheless I feel this is a hold type of situation.
AIMS APAC REIT
One of the niche ones around. Being Industrial Reit means it will not be as impacted as retails. However there is still large GDP impacts and the stock price got a large hits. After averaging down at low prices, the price is recovering so to speak but I am reluctant to add even more. The yield is good but I don't see dpu will be significantly impacted for now. This is one guru that I respect top position but I am just a smaller fry to follow.
ASCENDAS REIT
King of Reit. Cannot miss this one. I have been trading on this for long time. At one point zero position. A 5 digit gains ytd and a sizable position build up. As Business Park and Industrial play, the impact similar to other Industrial Reits on current situation.
CAPITAMALL TRUST
A core reit position that I retained in my portfolio that took a major hit it rides down with the virus impact spreading across the society. As in DBS case, there is limited room for me to average down due to the large exposure. I did play with trading positions and took small profits of similar positions. At near to 7% yield, even without dpu throughout this year, I would consider CMT a steal.
CapitaR China Tr
Have some on lowered prices before it goes deeper down in pricing. This is one Reit that I have the opportunity to initiate and buildup overtime as the price goes lower. Quite happy on this. Reits in China I prefer to ride alone with establish players. So only this one I would consider. The yield is great and again I would not have build-up without the price being lowered significantly.
IREIT Global
A Reit with investment in Germany previously. In bad times, this Reit is a gem. The yield is good at current 8%. I was buying near to 10% for some of my lots. Unfortunately there is always fear and I do not hold more than 5% allocated. The fundamental and sponsors are good. On hindsight this should be around 7% allocation considering I am looking for non-sg exposure to increase on. The discount is still good despite price run-up but I need to allocate some discount to recession situation which could last same or longer than Covid does.
MAPLETREE IND TR
Small position in this and unfortunately the price run-up just when I released some large lot of trading positions. Not something I would cry about as the yield is so so but the fundamental works well against Covid situation due to DCs and Industrial Parks. I think it will take another major drops for me able to collect back as dividend play.
FRASERS L&I TR
So glad to be back on this counter and with a good enough position build up before the price start running up. This is the stock I picked that do not have much sg exposure and Industrial. The merger with FCOT did not damp my view much as the yield is good and is heavily discounted from it's high.
MAPLETREE NAC TR
Another position that I manage to buy-back and buildup. This counter has two blackswans badges. Riots and Covid if we put tradewar aside. I think there is still room for price appreciation for this one but allocation wise I won't be be increasing near term.
NETLINK NBN TR
The world can collapse but near to mid term, the returns will be hardly impacted as users stay at home. Is currently near to the year start prices so I would thing that theoretically with the major printing press going on. we could bet on much more better valuation. I am satisfied it stays same.
As I mentioned, have been playing pens and papers recently. Unless the market significantly reverses it gains today, STI would have achieves 38.2% Fibo nicely. The next level will be 50% percentage points around STI 2715. Is a middle of not much support lines. Being conservative, I would have the support at STI 2678. The higher will be 2752. Personally I think highly unlikely the market will extend to hit 61.8% Fibo range of STI 2834 so quickly. If so, I would start some sales.
Staying vested seems so nice today as I realised trading just ended.
Cory
2020-0414
