Feb 7, 2020

Cory Diary : Performance 7th Feb'20

Is like weeks since my last posting. After registering strong return in the month of January 2020, Wuhan Virus finally get into my nerve. For the past few weeks I have sold enough shares that i have never done before that I hit my elevated selling limit set by my brokerage for a day. So moving forward I will be on buying mode since what has left behind will be the baseline that I would want to hold vested.

Today Tracker is the latest I got after the market closed today. Currently there is about 2% gap between Cory and STI Index.There is some roller-coaster ride since the Wuhan saga comes into play. How this ends will be interesting. 
From the chart, one key learning is I did not manage to catch the rebound up-swing of STI Index and Bank enough. As you know they took a step back today. This is something I like to digest on how to read them correctly and take decisive action.

Another action I took is I have kick-started my the other trading account which has lower fees. There will be some saving mitigated. The other advantage is that I will have two burners when needed.

Finally, one stock I like to mention is Ascott Reit from Ascendas-h tr shares. Last year I sold about half of Ascendas-h Tr shares. And decided to clear my remaining shares that was converted to Ascott Reit. Nothing against this Reit except that I did not choose this previously and market condition do not suit me to continue holding something that I am not in tune to it.

Little Daughter keeps me fun and busy. 😉


Cheers

Cory
2020-0207





Jan 18, 2020

Cory Diary : Will the Music Stops ?

Generally most people would agree that every lowering yield drives yield stocks. What happen if when the music stops ? In the year 2008 Global Financial Crisis, CMT my most often used example, price crashes from the high of $2.18 in Year 2007 to $0.875 in early part of Year 2009. That Year 2008, CMT distributed $0.13. In Year 2009, CMT yield hits 11.5% ! 

How hard is the crash ? 60% drops ! If we include $0.13 dividends, that's about 54% drops. That's why is called Global Financial Crisis.The scale could be a single lifetime event. As mentioned earlier, if one could not walk out of this scenario, they probably have waited outside the market for 10 years already. That's another GFC to oneself and it won't be a single lifetime event.

At today CMT price of $2.60 , the optimistic yield is 4.7%. This is way surpass Year 2007 before GFC prices of yield 6.6%. If we are to judge CMT as too expensive because of Year 2007 low valuation, then we could get our logic totally wrong.

The number one reason is inflation. The other is lowering yield. Look at chart below. Is CMT price today expensive based on simplified inflation consideration on Year 2020?

Still not convince the power of Stable Reits  ? CMT is capable of distributing 12 cents this year. Look at the above table again. What the price you would think it should be. Let says a stock market correction resulted CMT price drops to $2.2. That's more than 5 years ago price. That's will be about 3 years of dividends. That's timing if you try to save this dividends. The good news is we don't have to if we ignore timing. Treat it as a time deposits that gives you cash-flow of roughly 12 cents annually. 

If we believe in the quality of CMT properties holds and the long term prospect, that Singapore way of life centers around Malls for the next decade, it will be quite difficult NOT for CMT price to return comfortably and more unless we see something seriously happen to Singapore that we would want to hedge and in which case if not, most of SG Stocks could likely be affected and probably our currency in the saving too.

See Chart below of estimated CMT price trend.




Over the long term, the trend is quite obvious. Cory is just doing calculated risk decision making. As in all investment there are risk and the price could drop and we could lose everything. If we look above chart again, near term it could fall towards "Median line".

Or the price could accelerate upwards and form a new gradient line. And which case the new "Median line" could be as below.




Too many people falls for current perceptions and forget about looking into the possible futures could be. And which case the price could be on acceleration path.

And that the 'trick" of the charts. You see what you want to see. 


Cory
2020-0118

Jan 15, 2020

Cory Diary : Resetting Performance Tracker 2020

The year 2020 starts with robust gain though not like the burst we see in start of 2019. Cory portfolio is also not well position to benefit significantly from it. Nevertheless relatively to STI, Cory Portfolio still edge a little bit higher.



The purpose of this post today is not about the gains but the reset feature of recognizing past realised and unreleased gains in 2019 as one's Year 2020 asset. This is done by resetting the Cory portfolio tracker to zero as above along with STI.

This is important concept in Cory Portfolio Strategy management that is not to subject oneself to have a mindset of plenty and that what profited in prior years are not dispensable money.



Cory
2020-0115