Cory Diary : Wake-up Call - Performance Mid-Nov'19

When China mentioned that they are close to a trade deal, this send a shocker to the market used to flip-flop sending investors to good safe haven equities of good dividend returns. A strong recipe for good quality REITs locally. The good news send a little cooling of sizable reduction in share prices not seen for some period of time on surprisingly strong quality counters. Is market finally feels is real ?

This is a wake-up call to Cory who just got his portfolio ready for 2020 and now has to do another re-balance. Took some rather drastic and decisive actions to re-balance the portfolio by profit level as the previous assumption were always defensive is good except how to is a big question. The learning is we see FCT, CMT, Ascendas Reit, MCT, MINT etc driven down much lower than other REITs of lower quality is humbling. The rationale is interesting but something to explore with on other time.

In another front, if we could remember, Ascendas Reit has quite a large discount in it's Rights. After Ex-rights and Ex-dividend, price was driven much lower in subsequent days. At 5.7% yield, this is attractive, and Cory took the opportunity to expand more at $2.88. Yes, Cory still loves good quality Reits especially at cheaper price.

Today, DJIA broke 28,004 and STI Index is at higher 3228 level. Cory XIRR 22.6% YTD. Profit Yield ( Profits / [Total Portfolio + Investment Cash] ) at 18%. Just another reminder that strategy has to be nimble to accept change to counter the unexpected and assumption. 

(updated for privacy) - Cory aren't complaining as is better to sleep well with some profit buffers. Yes, Cory has a bazooka right now. A good problem to have for Year 2020.

Cory
2019-1116

Cory Diary : Ascendas Reit gets even better with Rights !

Ascendas Reit


This Reit comes into Cory portfolio pretty late. In the initial positions in 2017 there were quite a number of trading activities. Make some kopi money.  Investment only get significant in 2018 which interestingly registered a net loss position by year end. Today, Ascendas Reit is Cory largest position after STI ETF.

So one may ask why so late in the game on this one. The key reason is Ascendas is expensive relative to itself. The chart is ever growing so stock price continues to climb year after year. So Cory keep postponing and finally one day strike his head that if one day it does really get cheap enough, he may not want to buy any ! So that's the 2nd Enlightenment !

Strong Reit is sort after because they perform consistently or should I say grow continuously in DPU. What this mean is for every share invested, the dividend returns are more each year. To top it up, the capital gain as well. So if one try to wait, this may never comes. We can miss this gem completely but Cory prefers to be late than never. This year for some period Ascendas Reit is Cory top performer registering strong returns before being overtaken by little brother Ascendas-h Tr, and Mapletree Ind Tr later.

When the News is out on the large acquisition, Cory is bewildered. Most people would automatically expect stock price to be lowered on the next trading session but not Cory when he regains his composure and who then secretly wish for price gains (link). Indeed, it does and Cory managed to sell some lots at $3.19. The many reasons Cory has provided in the link. However, the price come down later to $3.12 which is still respectable considering the huge Rights discount. The reason for the sale is more on re-balance rationale and taking some profit off the table.

Will the price comes back up is anybody guess. However in Cory heart l, it easily could. And considering the size and yields, it gets more attractive than before. If the price fall significant enough, getting more lots would be very tempting for a stake in the biggest Reit in town. Cory almost want to say Ah Gong throw money to investor to take. LOL

There is one saying. If you visit China but did not climb the Great Wall, you aren't a MAN (“不到长城非好汉”). Cory like to add, if you do not have Ascendas Reit in your portfolio, you aren't a dividend player either. (joking ... don't kill me .. is late). And as usual disclaimers .... for errors and not a stock pick recommendation. Is just a diary of what Cory is thinking and he could be very very wrong.


Cory
20191106

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Nov'19 Report

Just about a week ago Cory documented an early exam report card thinking the score will go down this week but he didn't. If you miss his Diary on Oct Performance. Must visit.  ( link ). Is good to be wrong for this case isn't it ? Again a good problem to have.

And then he wrote another piece of work on How to make money ..... (No Scam okay ... here's the link ). This piece of Diary is Classic .... as it summaries Cory progression .... or regression .... . which I find is important to understand the essence though kiasu and kiasi methods can varies.

To cut it short here's the Final Equity Allocation.

For Year 2019,

XIRR YTD      : 24.4%
XIRR Dec'19 : 19.7%

(updated for privacy) . Cory maybe right to say portfolio will be lowered just that is not this week but probably next. 

First of all is the announcement of Ascendas Reit Rights Issue. In Cory opinion, the discount is quite large in order to raise enough sum. The fortunate thing is for this time is not along private placement lines that they are quite familiar with as this will put a dent on shareholders value. The second thing the manager did right is to allow the rights to be sold. This mitigate value loss. And on top of it is DPU and Yield accretive on such a solid Reit which gets even better in gearing and property spread after. The ex-rights date is also aligned to Ex-dividend. Though Cory secretly hopes for price increase, needs to prepare for reduction in his heart too.

Secondly, Portfolio took a small hit due to Aims Apac Reit secondary listing. So much learning for the past weeks. There is no new share issue but the placement at $1.35 basically allows "richer retailers" to do a quick flush into the market. It has since climb back a little. Guess vested folks will be looking sternly into the coming DPU report for any misgiving. Yes, Cory clinching to George reputation, integrity, acumen, ... apology for the stress if you have read it though unlikely. 

(updated for privacy) 


Cheers

Cory
2019-1101

Cory Diary : Making money work for you

Most people work on salaried income. Spend like 9 hours or even 15 hours a day.  And If you are in this mode of life and trying to get out from this rat race, there is limited options. One of the popular option is to join the long queue with aunties and uncles and hope to strike TOTO. This seems to be harder than kenna strike by lightning but many aren't deterred by it. Cory sometimes go buy when he is down in morale ... but halfhearted. So even harder to strike. LOL

Uncle Cory thinks he should work on a more viable option. That's to have money. And hatched his plan more than a decade ago by saving money. And then he saw the property bubbles come and go. Stocks market bubbles come and go. Even Fixed deposits "Bubbles" come and go ... Every $100, 000 loses $3, 000 annually to inflation ... ( Cory must be "Rich" .... to let this happen  ! ). Are you too ?

After going through Math, Uncle Cory decided to hatch another plan that is really really viable. That's to make money works for him. This time he probably get it right. One of the main reason is that the effort invested is little or using his spare time to learn as Cory needs to work. Of-course Cory needs to have money to Work. He has .... if you remember his first plan. LOL.

That doesn't mean is a linear process as Cory can do in parallel. Amount is never too small.  The experience gained and incremental saving will be compounded for the future. However Cory aren't savvy enough to use leverage other than technically the property loan which also means avoid stacking the risk to uncontrollable level.

So as you can see, Cory is kiasi and kiasu. I think most NORMALs are ! So that's what Cory do below. Depending on situation,  money is apportioned due to regulation and needs through below.


CPF

Investment is very limited when it is "Sure Win". The obvious one is CPF which are systematically saved and contributed. Is not like we have a choice anyway but nevertheless on paper they have saving, contribution and interests elements build into it. As many would know, is politically not so correct to promote to everyone. Cory has a friend who curse day in and out on it that is not our money and that is a fraud but then he plans to reserve it for his children education. huh ?! 

Cory have another friend who is on the extreme end and keep topping up money into CPF till millionaire status however he is a savvy investor, and supporter of establishment. Maybe Life is full of irony and Cory takes is that Investment and political view should not mixed. Cory plan is not to touch them for investment, and optimise enough OA into SA. Maybe some experts got better ideas. Cory is just sharing his current plan.


Bonds/Preference Shares

The next "safer" ones probably are Bonds/Preference Shares on the local banks. Is quite unimaginable they will collapse or write down. However, never say never. Leman Brothers is a living proof. Unique exceptions aside, generally I would assume our local banks are next best things to Gov guaranteed.

Between CPF and above, probably Singapore Saving Bonds (SBB) for more protective funds. Limited to $200 k of 1.7% currently. Not very exciting but good enough for those who are conservative like Cory. However don't get this wrong. The devil is always in the detail and so is goodies. Cory is vested between 2%~2.5% range and is only single digit percentage of his net worth. Most importantly, is money reserve for emergency and loan installments back up which could otherwise by in Fixed Deposits.


Fixed Deposits / Cash

The worst thing to do is too have ample cash in Saving bank doing nothing. Cory typically only needs certain amount for emergency cash flow needs. A large portion of it parked in Fixed Deposits which can earns 1.4% easily. So got this FIXED. You can try other banks .... . Just make sure is really safe.


Equity

Is a path to wealth expansion for those who do not have a really good paying jobs. However, the market is ruthless on those who make mistakes and could set you back for years financially. Cory struggles on who should be in it. Having swim in the shark-infested water for many years and still surviving doesn't mean many can. However, to reach financial independence faster, Cory thinks this is the main path other than building up a business ourselves if we have the right attributes.

This year is especially good for dividend investors due to Cory thinks are the building up of wealth after property curbs and the money printing world wide. Money has to go some where and they end up in stock markets. However this class of investors look for safe investment and REITs and Bonds are quickly identified with.

We know what happens to Risky bonds, and investors learned some big lessons from Hyflux and Swiber that yield is not the primary. Within the REITs universe there is different classes of them too. Again some investors will have to pay school fees if they think all REITs are the same and are only along the line of yields only.

Some REITs are US denominated and from limited experience in US market, is better for Cory to leave this class alone. Life is much more simpler to layman Cory. 


Property

One thing Cory learned from his Condo, is location. The $psf shoots up after Top.  Leverage to the max as the loan is cheapest. So Cory has more cash to deploy elsewhere but not to spend ! Age matters. Young people can maximum their loan period. Condo maintenance very high ... but renovation is cheap as most is already build-up. At the end of the day, is nice to have a shelter over his head. Maybe Cory needs a bigger head now as he finds his Condo too small.


Philosophy

So what is Cory investment philosophy. Simple lah. Don't lose money. 

If we have studied solid "Blue Chip" REITs, the price fluctuations can be quite significant. This may convince some investors that timing matters. While Cory do not disagree to it, what matter is how can to execute them. For example this year REIT returns easily come in with 20% returns. Is a GFC impact to those who stays out in a single year alone create by oneself ! Will the price correct ? Why not. But to hold on to our investment or to re-balance them is another Cory article. A good problem to have.

The mindset for REITs investment is to think it as cash flow. Say 5% yield of initial capital returns. Stock price will fluctuates. Looks for those that can grow. Doesn't matter whether is 0% or 10%. They can be apportion into the portfolio accordingly to risk levels but they all have to be solid REITs and not those that sponsors dumped, mismanaged or have integrity issues. Most importantly the business behinds this REITs are solid or not, and that can build value over time.

Lastly, performance is DPU + Capital Value. How they play around it, we value them appropriately.


Happy Reading and Belated Happy Deepavali 2019 ... sorry ... started to write this piece on that day ... so busy this week.


Cory
2019-1030

Cory Diary : Performance Oct'19

Oei ! Too early lah. Still got a week leh. What's the hurry uncle ?

Next week uncle no feel good leh. Don't be so rigid can ? ( Uncle Cory cheated the time to report good result cannot meh....  )

Seriously why today ? ... All Time High ( ATH ) lah. Next week not sure can maintain or not. I don't want to miss the mountain ... so report first. Shiok right. Lucky Cory Portfolio is not listed else sure kenna ....

Why Cory worry  ? Let's look at STI first ....

STI Long Term Bull, Short Term Dunno !

Based on CoryLogics, STI approaching a resistance after bouncing off from multi-year support as expected else it will be major correction at minimum.  See link on last reasoning in Aug. i think which is basically a broad strategy this year on STI Performance in earlier articles as well. And well I am comfortable to have large stake in STI Index as a buffer for Reits profitability protection.

Finally cleared Facebook. Portfolio now all Singapore team. YTD Cory Xirr 19.1%. (updated for privacy). If we remove Bonds/Preference holdings, Portfolio would have been 23.1%. STI Index 3.81% (excluding dividend).

What's next ? Lack of ideas now. Thinking how should I further protect my profits but need to stay vested for rest of year and ensuring enough dividends for next year. So many asks. So little ideas.

On top of this I have different ideas coming up for next year.

1. Re-Balance some part of my portfolio to lower cost fees
2. Holding back purchases maybe to later part of next year
3. Key deliberation on Bank Stocks, Bonds and Preference Shares Strategy



Cory
2019-1025

Cory Diary : Telegram Craze

Have been trying out new channel of investment sharing. As above is called Telegram. For what it matters, it functions similar like an apps chat hosted by Telegram. You will need mobile number to register.

The advantage therefore we can have hundreds of people in the chat group. There are many different groups for different interests. Manage to get myself into a few Singapore investment groups. I have seen Foods, Jobs, .... but don't get yourself into trouble like Nasi Lemak Group which were in the News recently for spreading pornographic materials. For the political savvy, there is one by our Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

To join the private group they require "link" invitation but you can try search to get the public ones using keyword of interests. Ping me if you need specific investment groups for invites. There is a few SG Reits groups which are more align to my interests. However, there are others for knowledge.

Telegram Chat certainly moves faster than the traditional media channels that I am in use. And there is more responsive helps from others. The Apps is much lighter therefore faster to read, share, stored and communicate.

Few things in the news recently. Reits Reporting season. CMT DPU up 4.8% YoY Cheers, another strong quarter.  Keppel shares limited acquisition by Temasek, cheers because I have it in STI Index  .... . And one not so good which is Aims Apac Reit secondary listing which cause the share price to drop and hovers around $1.38.


Cory

2019-01021

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Review 2019-1014

A month past since I last reviewed my asset allocation. Time really flies.  YTD Asset increased by 21% thanks to equity market in-addition to regular salary income. Manage to consolidate some of my cash to Fixed Deposits which provide quite good 1.4% returns to my surprise. I have been neglecting them .... . With reduced Cash level at 3.8% of Net Worth (see chart) this is probably the minimum I would go for now. There is some timing involves to support Housing Loan payments with added buffers of-course for emergency needs.

With Saving amount hits absolute base line level needs, near and mid term future funds from Salary and Portfolio probably can now be put more into active service or likely building up the warchest further as in Fixed Deposits.

Cory Investment Portfolio YTD increased by 18.4%. Which roughly tally with the profits recorded this year with a little cash injection to top it off. At this point, maybe I should let the fund runs.

Cory

2019-1014