Cory Diary : Equity Performance 2019-0414

This is a continuation from 25th Dec'18 post and then follow-up with 10th Mar'19 post. Based on STI Index, if we have taken new position at 25th Dec is more than 8% gain. And if 10th Mar it will be 4.5%.

Post 1: https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2018/12/cory-diary-sti-index-crucial-juncture.html

Post 2: https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2019/03/cory-diary-life-is-about-choices-sti.html

Not surprisingly my portfolio benefited from it as I continue to stay invested and more. Reits and Trusts did well during this time. Frankly, the broad market did good too..

If I do away with Fixed investment, Xirr hits 10.7% using end date at year end to account for annualized full year without further gains. Closely correlated to current 10% profit range.

Moving forward how ?

Assuming STI Index continues to climb which is my personal expectation (DYODD), Index level of 3600 appears to be potential. That's a 8% climb from here. Is that possible ? A check on CMT will reach 4.6% yield. Ascendas will be 5.1%. In a ever lowering yield world, investors could still be happy. So It can happen. Will it ?

Cory

2019-0414

Cory Diary : This Time is Different ... Really ?

The World has been on low growth environment for a long time way before 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is precipitates with low interest rates.During this time a few great innovations take hold.

One is ride hailing apps. Connecting passenger and cabs seamlessly. We also see the growth of internet orders maturing for foods and goods items. Follow by Video streaming services. Few other apps that I have been using which is unheard of  before the crisis

1. Reporting baby status by nanny
2. Condo Services notification for parcels
3. "Live" Stock prices
4. Forex Exchange Rates
5. Company Outlook Emails and OC
6. Messenger Services
7. Mobile games
8. Banking Services

and many others. They have changed and improve our lifestyles. During this time, Retail Malls continues to prospers.Many people is still accustomed to shopping, eating and meeting outside the virtual space to connect.  Quite a few Reits benefit much from it. As the saving grows, so are the needs for yield despite ever lowing with higher prices. There is demand with increasing cash with limited safer and reasonable returns investment opportunities.

Surely Beat STI in term of grow and dividends, right ?

Logically people are worried that the market might crash based on increasing valuation. Using my favorite example again CMT. CMT today is 5% yield stock. Maybe 4.9%. Is cold hard cash and not some "future promises" as in dot come era where there aren't fundamental to speak of. Is a brick and mortar. The building is literally sitting there with good location and connectivity.  The "artificial flooring" is 2.5% thanks to SSB which is theoretically risk-less for those who want the game to continue going for prosperity.

Even at 4%, many people may still choose CMT over SSB assuming the business returns maintain which is likely, and reason being there is demand with the system brimming with cash be it saving or earning. Will I sell at 4% ? Not sure. I will deal with it when times come but I am holding tight. Will we ever reach that level ? I think unlikely as something else could attract the cash for better returns. Even then, the CMT price may likely flatten out as any outflow will result in higher yield and the balancing act would comes in.

Stock price crashing ? Really ? Maybe if there is recession and people out of job and need to cash in on CMT stock. This will be market wide implication and not just CMT I suppose. And will this hit CMT mall business ? Interesting to find out.


Cory
2019-0412

Cory Diary : Mapletree NAC Tr - Plan

This is one stock that I seldom blog about. One main reason is being selfish. I aren't saint and not that good either, ok. I need to plan my buys. Actually I have average up this twice resulting it becomes one of my 15% profit stocks. Much earlier if we based on initial amount.

As it reach another high today I thought it maybe good to plan my exits. So I do a chart on it today. Do remember I aren't expert in all this including stock selection. Is just my diary of my thoughts.

2019-0408 Mapletree NAC Tr

If you have notice, there is a major sell down by "funds" on 3/15 (Long red volume bar) with MACD cutover the previous day. Seems like there is concerted effort. However the stock continues to climb supported by the gradient support line hitting 1.35 today.

The reason it continues to climb I feel is the strong yield from this reit. The mall in HK is strong. As the business is generating positive DPU sell down is tough and unlikely. Further there is Fed helps. For my personal estimate using Fibo ext., the first sell signal will be 1.4 range. This is undemanding and could achieve with 5.5% yield. The next level will be 1.6 range which is harder to hit short term.


Cory
2091-0408