Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross

The banking strength in 2017 and 2018 have skewed the stock market quite significantly. But just to get on-board them midway (assuming) is not easy at current high price. The only consolation I have is STI Index so far which capture a fair bit of the banking actions.With reasonable amount I decide to plunge into OCBC which has recently dipped due to "poor" result. Hopefully I did not catch the tailwind (correction: end of ) of the banking sector. I was proved wrong twice during the first 4 months of the year when STI Index charge ahead against my personal returns every time the performance gap narrowed (see below).

Chart: The 2 area marked red circle almost crossed but it didn't. Both time thanks to the Banks. Hence, my search for Golden Cross goal in 2018.

Another counter is Wells Fargo making its way as the 2nd US stock listed in my tracked portfolio. Together with OCBC, makes up 4% of my tracked portfolio now. Facebook and Wells Fargo are not existing US stocks. They are bought recently and has been in positive territory since with 15% and 2% gains respectively. A good start and get to enjoy the larger movements in US Markets. However, I am pretty aware it can be the reverse too.

In the first 4 months of the year I have been playing hit and run on some of the smaller stocks. Design Studio, QAF, Neratel and Singapore O&G specifically. They all have one thing in common which have poorer results. Sizing and cut loss are done pretty quick to mitigate impacts. One thing I found out about myself is that for this year my numb mode is around 2% investment size for such counters. And this will probably be the my guidance ahead.

On the Reits front for Q1, on average probably break even as dividends cover their capital loss.
This sector enjoyed good run last year and so is better for them to take a break and stay flat this year. Is no fun to see them running too far ahead and then collapsed from exhaustion. I would like to see better NAV before they take the next leap as they could run ahead of fundamental in the quest for higher dpu. And that means higher property price.



Cory
20180512

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180507

This year is flat. Hovering around 1% gain currently which is still below STI Index. Strategy wise I am not changing much. Our Banks valuation are rich so is tough for me to enter to close the gap. Few trades I did worth thinking more.

Singtel

Reduced further with the poor results of associates as I need to manage the risk of over-exposure. And with the coming of TPG, the battle could be tougher. Regional wide telco margin pressure will be a new shift. The main impact is my 2018 dividend. So I hope to come up something to compensate.

Frasers Cpt Tr

Decided to come back on this counter after making the mistake of selling it earlier. One thing I learned is what a strong sponsor can do to support the dpu. Anyway, kick-start with a small position as is my believe that Malls are here to stay and the stability of their earning power is reasonable.

Frasers L&I Tr

Reduced further as the main reason to invest is no longer there. Sizable gearing increase without sufficient DPU compensation in the Euro Acquisition seems not so good a deal. We could argue is good for currency diversification but that itself is a weakness of the reit inability to overcome through internal earning.


Cory

20180507

Cory Diary : US Stock injection into SG Portfolio Tracker

I tend to keep my US stocks low profile. There are few personal reasons. Decided to do a first this time. Reason being my portfolio should have a better diversification tracking in management considering bulk of my shares are in SG Trust/Reits, Index and SG Bonds/PS.

Will be selective at first. Injected Facebook into my tracked holding and slowly expand if I am happy with the move. The complexity is they are traded in USD. So currency movement do affects my overall returns and risks. 

One logic to consider is the exchange rate. My consideration is how I can compute them on paper appropriately into Singapore dollars when they stay in USD cash account. This means that if USD is to depreciate 10% within a year, my open US stock and cash will have -10% fluctuation in returns. As for closed US stock, if their cash is stays in USD cash, their real profit will have to be adjusted.  I do not believe in paper loss.

Tracking Method consideration

1. US Buy/Sell trade price.
2. S$ translated Buy/Sell value will be dynamically updated.
3. S$ Profit/Loss will be dynamically updated for open trades.
4. Profit/Loss will be dynamically updated in S$ for closed trades unless I have them converted back to S$ then it will be locked.
5. Available US$ cash will not be tracked. Neither will exchange cost for simplicity.

Hope this new chapter of my investment portfolio management proves wise and provide better excitement to my listless SG stocks. I am excited !

Cory

20180422

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 1Q18 ( CMT )

Quick collection read from today CMT 1Q18 report

• DPU 1.8% YoY. That's about 5.4% yield at today $2.10 stock price.
• Operating expenses decreased 4.7% which is quite significant.
• Raffles City Singapore (Joint Venture) NPI is up. Was not so good in previous report.
• Gearing lowered to 33.5%

Nice set of result. And we still have Funan Mall as a wild card.  To top it up, Sale of SSC for S$248.0 million. That's a good premium and helpful buffer for many quarters to come. Not sure I have opportunity to accumulate more next week.

Cory

20180420

Cory Diary : Compiling NetLink NBN Tr

NetLink NBN Tr - closer review

IPO price S$0.81 at lower band range. S$2.3 billion IPO is the biggest in Singapore since 2011. Singtel will hold about 24.99 per cent of the units in NetLink NBN Trust, which will own all of the units of NetLink Trust.

Consists of 10 Central Offices and approximately 76,000 km of fibre cable, 16,200 km of ducts, and 62,000 manholes then. Providing services for 89% of the residential homes in Singapore (2017). NLT is the sole network company for Next Gen NBN, it dominates the wholesale provision of dark fibre connections for residential premises.

3Q18 earnings came in at $21.7 million, 32.5% higher than IPO forecast, due to lower operating and staff costs. "The first distribution period will be for the period from 19 June 2017 to 31 March 2018 and will be paid on or before 29 June 2018. However, July'17 is when it get listed. About 8 month plus.

Unsecured loan 588,542,000 @ 2.53%
Units : 3,896,971,100
Depreciation : $36,897,000


Annualized Yield ( Price 81 cts )

Dividend cost @5% Yield  ~ $158M
Expect to achieve from cash flow.

Dividend cost @6% Yield ~ $190M. DPU will be 4.86 cents.

High side would be @7% yield. ~ S$221M cost. Stars need to be aligned to hit this. Alternatively, stock price has to go down to 69.4 cents if we maintain 4.86 cents dividends.

The upside is stable population or growth projection. Stable Earning. Low maintenance. Singtel major shareholder. Control of operating cost is especially key. The other will be commercial space expansion.The hope is most of the infra can last more than 15 Years. Therefore maintenance cost will be relatively low supporting cash flow for dividends.

The risk could be interest rate which will be few years later relative to earning. Technology and Competitor  not in visible horizon. However, infra cost needs to be monitored that could affect earning. Will be interesting to read next earning report and the first actual dividend for the 8 months.


Cory
20180415

Cory Diary : Is this a Start of Trade War ?

Just came back from hiking in Jia Yi farmland recently. 24c and windy weather. Excellence walk on some unplanned and very secluded locations. Used pedometer and the max day count is 20268 which could be more than 12 km. Quite an adventure I would say especially walking pass 3 unchained street dogs and a traditional cemetery hill plus a 1 km detour. I do not find it appropriate to take a snap ... kind of regretted.

This is probably the kind of life i love to have when retired. Travelling around the country and going to unknown places. Of course safely. Free from the dynamics of the market especially recent trade disputes while my money works for me. A trial run i guess.

We are in early rattle of possible trade war between China and America. And if this further deepen we could see significant impacts to trade between the two countries. Some economists think Russia, Australia and others may benefits. I think there maybe short spike of demand but we could see a global reduction in demand after due to more expensive cost inputs to production reducing affordability. Therefore recession could be on the card to many countries since America is a key driver to world consumption. China is no small market either even though the goods are of lower pricing relatively.

I do not see how Trump and aides would come down from this stance. There is some fair logic in his argument and he tries to do what he says he would. People who are against him will be fired. So the only main recourse I think would be to watch China closely till the next presidential election. Whether PRC would want a peaceful development for next 20 years or a major detour they have to do their calculation as manufacturing base will re-locate away from China to other Asian locations as time goes by. Once they start moving it will be hard for them to come back.

What i did is to build up my war chest for now. Potential max dividend from SG equity reduced to less than 38K. So if I am wrong, I won't be too bad. With SSB, further Treasury and FD, this would help mitigate. I also took profit from some of my US holding. I guess this level of cash is good for stable property installments ... and time for more local hikings in Taiwan.



Cory
20180408

Cory Diary : Investment Journey

We have been flat this year so far. That's alright. We can't expect every year to do well. I have been cutting loses, taking profits and re-balancing some of my positions. And just went below 45K dividends mark. Let's see how i can make it up near term. Cash is still high up. Maybe SSB should also up the 100K limit instead of just enlarging the pool size.

So what's the title about today ? I derived something new this morning. Investment is a journey. The enjoyment of the Process of stock selection, dividends collection, reports reading and news catch. The exchanges and the market participation. Maybe more. Financial Freedom is just the mean. Get it ?

Happy Journey !

Cory

20180404

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180313

PARKWAYLIFE REIT and MAPLETREE IND TR

Manage to come back to secure some after recent price corrections. Just a relatively small position in each. Good to be able to expand my Reits to have two more counters. Current Reits allocation is around 40% of Local Equity Portfolio. Total Portfolio projected to receive target (updated for privacy) dividend in 2018 currently.

I like this Maple due to "Mapletree Investments and Mapletree Industrial Trust Form Joint Venture to Acquire 14 Data Centres in the United States of America". And I like Parkwaylife for being in the market for more affluent lifestyle and greying population needs.



CREATIVE

Did a quick speculative trade with just holding 1 day over the weekend when price moved up to 5.x. And sold it on the next mon working day at 8.x for whopping more than 60% gains. Just couldn't hold with such a gain so quickly. Since then, price corrected quickly and now is on restricted trade list. I would certainly like to buy a Creative 3D earphone to try out first.


STI Index

Bought a little more STI Index ES3 when it corrected recently after recent sale of some portion of my Singtel shares. I wouldn't want to go in big as we are at rather high level but I still feel 3800 is a good target.


QAF

Reduced my stake some with recent poor result as I am not sure how long it will takes to turn around the business. And use the fund to play with Creative which ends up very well as mentioned above.


There are few others trades but enough for today.


Cheers

Cory
20180313

Cory Diary : Multi-Baggers

I watched Creative Tech share phenomenal jumps. More than 4 times before after the News. Is this real ? Creative's Super X-Fi™ Headphone Holography could be a game changer. Am I too late into the game. Let's do a modelling today with Math. Using cost and target valuation price if indeed the technology becomes a household product as a standard.

If I am late in the game and I bought at $5 of 1000 shares. Compared to someone who bought at $1 assuming same amount of lots. If the value of the shares jumped to $100K, the profits difference is just $4K. That's not much a difference even if we are to enter at $5 with just 20 baggers in term of absolute profits.

Will this be our "iPhone" at our door step ? Can't miss it. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.
But for people who catch the winds of the product innovation will be a great success, is not too late to enjoy similar success as one dollar plus lucky investors.


Cory
20180303

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180220

As DIY Investor, when I am not glued to 2018 Budget, at least need to catch the key points. They could provide some help or guidance on what is to come in the future. And then double up with whats app or forum discussion. This will give me a basic idea. The key is information and being smart is not enough. There is one more thing, I need to be fast too. Why ?

Design Studio prior to CNY holiday announced Profit Warning. This is Information. If people who has follow my portfolio, I first did my reduction in this counter so that I can sleep better when price ran up. (link) I know this is SME. And high price volatility in illiquid stock means there can be sharks. DS also has a CEO change. Taking some profit off the table created some profit buffer.

Then the quarterly report is bad, and price took a hit. CFO resigned later (I think last Dec'17). And climaxed with Feb Profit Warning. First trading day 9am, I saw the buy queue 0.52. I miss to sell it in seconds.  (In my heart is like %^&$#@). The price went down to 0.48 to 0.50 range quickly which I manage to sell down most of my remaining shares.  I am still left with few k unable to clear due to no buyer. My pain to learn. The day ended at 0.40. That's fierce. Cut loss and sell down are key steps I took to mitigate my losses for this situation as I am blind sided on how bad the news are.

I have few other trades this month but I think writing down my experience on Design Studio is enough for me tonight. Is late past 1 am ... Hope you have a Happy Chinese New Year.



Cory
20180220