Cory Diary : Singapore Market 400 points climb - 人算不如天算: Man Proposes but God Disposes

Man Proposes but God Disposes

When I post on 31st Oct, on Wash my cards, basically as I said " The goal is to protect capital, maximise dividend, risk adjusted." The market looks like going for another deep dive like in March 2020. Therefore the learning will be how to mitigate the situation. The main change is  removal of STI ETF due to expected lower yield coming distribution because of banking segment dividends have been restrained.  And a few counters. However most the portfolio I was prepared to go with the swing and considering the amount of cash raised that can be quickly put to pick Durians. LOL

On exactly the next week trading day, STI ETF starts it maiden climb. Roughly 400 points !

In Cory Portfolio, the swing is $88K from negative loss to positive returns. What-if STI has stayed in the game ? About $11k additional gains. However during this period , I have put some of cash  into Vicom and a few counter changes which help to alleviate few K returns. So in total the mitigation cost me probably 6 to 8K of returns. I would have hit a few more if manage to buy SPH in time which I was about to prior yesterday .... omg ... the rise is crazy ... to my frustration.

So here we are with higher yield dividend portfolio but slightly lesser net returns from past 3 weeks. What notably is the STI pace may not be always align with the banks so is broad based economy that the market was pushed higher into. This is rare in recent times and I am not sure it that a new direction which big money is buying into a broad index concept. Nevertheless the gap is now much smaller in the range of 15% against Cory Portfolio. I am still happy as I rather to be in positive than winning STI huge but with negative returns.

Singapore broad economy is still weak while Japan and HK go into another Covid spins. So a pull back is possibility from the capital flow injection which is blunt imo. Nevertheless I will rather take a 3% Positive returns anytime for the portfolio. Staying vested in market in sizeable manners help me this time again though I still find it could have been better to me ......

Cheers

Cory

2020-1121

Cory Diary : CPF Life - FRS or ERS

Some period ago I have decided Basic Plan is the way to go considering my age and investment portfolio I have that choosing moderation will be preferred. What I did not mentioned is should I default FRS or go for ERS. And in this article we will try to find out.

" For members who turn 55 in 2020, their Basic Retirement Sum (BRS), Full Retirement Sum (FRS) and Enhanced Retirement Sum (ERS) are $90,500, $181,000 and $271,500  respectively."

To hit ERS, I need additional $90,500. So basically multiples 1.5x of FRS.  Let's use FRS to see the returns.

Current FRS = $181, 000

Current Basic Plan : $1,272 - $1,404 starting at Age 65

Take note the Basic Plan payout is based on below notes form CPF through CPF Life Estimator Calculator.

"The monthly payouts, total payout received, and bequest amounts shown are estimated based on the Retirement Account balance provided, current CPF interest rates, and current mortality assumptions. They may differ from the actual figures. The displayed ranges are based on interest rates between 3.75% and 4.25%, and do not represent the lower and upper limits of the payouts"

Let's say lifespan of 80. (updated chart to correct year error)

Counted slightly more using 1st Jan for Bequest. Roughly XIRR of 4.4 %. Is that of any surprise to you all ? Do note that for worst case is 4%.

One thing to add, if you manage to live to Age 99, XIRR will be 4.9% which is investment returns equivalent of 4.9% for best case.

Should I go ERS ? Maybe I can do Top-Up after 55 to decide. CPF is more like a reasonable good safe harbor in case I become senile.... :)

Again DYODD as we explore the journey.

Cory

2020-1117

Cory Diary : Rental Income - Why I have to invest in property

Scenario of Rental Income

Property Price : $1,140,000

Monthly Rental : $3300

Yield at Cost : 3.47 %

Annual Net Income

After considering below

1. Condo maintenance cost : 400 monthly

2. Rental Agent fee = 0.5 month annual.

Monthly Net income  : $3300 - 400 - (0.5 month / 12) = $2763

However, usually people borrow quite an amount to finance the purchase. So there is leverage in play. And this is where Math becomes complex.

3.. How much you leverage

4. Stamp Duty & Fees : 2.72% one time

5. Interest Cost.

 

Let's assume item 4 in build into the condo valuation. Basically ignore.

Leverage resulting I need to pay $606 of interests portion monthly

Monthly Net income  : $3300 - 400 - (0.5 month / 12) - 606= $2157

Implied, Annual Net Income = $25, 884

YIELD

Now, let's talk about Yield. Yield at Cost based on net income : 2.3 %.  This Math sucks right ?

One thing to note. Property valuation can change with time. If property valuation increase 35% after 10 Years. The capital returns are  then plough  back into the monthly income in simplify manner.

Yield at today valuation approximately 4%. Basically doubled. And that's before property tax, tenant issues, empty months, .... alamak. Still no good enough.

However let's assume 33.3% of the property is my money injected. The rest are borrowed.

At current valuation yield will be 6.9%, or 12% if price increase by 30% 10 years later.

This are all rough estimation. Should I just stick with Reits or it can be another form of diversification that we cannot afford to miss as I like the Maths now.

Rental Income Tax (updated from feedback)

Depending on one tax status. Can varies widely between a retired and a director level salary income tax.

Please DYODD.

Cory

2020-1115

Cory Diary : The Interesting and the Exception - CPF Read

For the past couple of days I have been reading up on how to optimize my CPF. With multiple queries to CPF. Their service is top mark so if you have any question, they are the key folks to go to. Do note following is what i understand and could be wrong so please DYODD.

My notes.

1. CPF Transfer to loved ones

There is no Tax Incentives. Both Givers and Receivers need to meet certain condition for this to happen. From OA to either SA or RA depending on receivers age. The Givers also need to have certain amount of CPF before this is allowed.  One thing that caught my surprise is that they have a rule where if your love ones passed away, the unused portion of the CPF given by you will be returned back to your CPF. I thought this is interesting. (link)

2. Income Threshold for Spouse/Siblings

What is interesting is that "To claim tax relief for cash top-ups for your spouse or siblings, the spouse or siblings must not have an annual income exceeding $4,000 in the year preceding the year of top-up."

"Annual income includes taxable income (e.g. trade, employment and rental), tax exempt income (e.g. bank interest, dividends and pension) and foreign-sourced income regardless of whether it has been remitted to Singapore. This income threshold does not apply to parents, grandparents, handicapped* spouse or handicapped* siblings.

*Incapacitated because of physical or mental infirmity."

3. Tax Benefits can go up to 14K

"Cash top-ups can be made to any recipient. You can enjoy tax relief of up to $7,000 per calendar year if you are topping up for yourself and additional tax relief of up to $7,000 per calendar year if you are topping up for your parents, parents-in-law, grandparents, grandparents-in-law, spouse and siblings."

4. MediSave BHS (The Basic Healthcare Sum )

For CPF members aged below 65 in 2020 . The prevailing BHS is $60,000, and will be adjusted yearly. At current times, the interest rate at 4% will not be able to cover the annual increase even at max $60, 000 amount in MediSave. So if you are banking on overflow to other accounts by itself may need to take note that your cash flow will not happen currently.

5. OA and SA as Saving Accounts

There is limit on the amount allowed in SA account. Currently $181k. Basically cleared off when moves to RA. There is multiple articles on SA shielding such that the FRS is  fulfilled using OA monies so something you need to search about. For now before age 55, the interests from OA and SA are quite attractive than putting them in banks assuming you will meet the FRS amount regardless.

So why as form of Saving ? Because we are allowed to withdraw the monies as long FRS is met as we needed.

6. Basic Plan ( correction 14th Nov 20 )

If we intend to leave a sizeable amount of monies in our RA to our loved ones after we passed away, Basic plan (updated) will provide quite an amount left depending on when we get called, for an acceptable cut in our monthly withdrawal from 65. Check my earlier article on this. ( link )

7. Nomination

Can be done online. As I understand every time you get married, the earlier nomination gets invalidated. That's how I interpret ! What if I remarried ? hmm hmmm ... so better to do nomination again ?

Additional note. If marriage is not registered in Singapore ROM or ROMM, need to notify CPF. ( link ).

8. CPF Housing Refund

Can be done online. There is a limit of 5K each day using PayNow. Check my earlier article.

9. Discounted Singtel (ST) shares

Don't have to sell our shares.

"You may only apply to transfer your discounted Singtel (ST) shares to your own Central Depository account after you have reached 55 years old and have set aside the Full Retirement Sum (FRS) in the Retirement Account. The FRS can be set aside fully with cash, or with cash (i.e. at least the Basic Retirement Sum) and property"

10. Silver Support Scheme

Often we hear about old people clearing table but not much is mentioned how much help was given from Silver Support Scheme. I thought this is interesting and that our gov is not as heartless as we think it is. Singaporean only. ( Link ) . What is good about this scheme is you do not need to apply ! 

I think there will be more interesting find in CPF website. Strongly suggest people visit them.

Cory

2020-1114

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Updates - 2020-1110

What I see ...

With the American elections kind of over, the Win by Biden is not clean unfortunately. There could be rounds of litigations. So this may linger longer than expected. Will there be blackswan ? 

At the same time, appears the world is emerging out from Covid-19 as Vaccines started making large progress. Interestingly, each major countries have their own "Sputnik" to show off. Maybe time to get off the rubbery stocks if one is invested. I don't have such issue. ha ha. .. .. ...

Across the causeway, things aren't getting better. While locally here, the progress on green lanes is on the way. Hopefully, our neighbor do not add more complexity to the situation as the island is getting back to the New Normal. This will help the Reits and basic social services. Will banks suffer the same fate as Telco when introduced with uneven competition ?

As I grow out of 50th, retirement financials will be key as I have two toddlers to care for. Some people may feel why that late. Frankly I feel timing has not been better. We come to this world to experience life and given the opportunity and affordability, I would try. I do not want to miss something and wasted the chance in this life when we can. 

There will be now more focus on getting CPF sized right with the right characteristic suitable for the family. At the same time maintaining the right balance on equity front to generate enough dividends and hopefully growth in risk mitigated manner. I still have housing loan to pay up so cashflow from rent will be something to watch. This is in addition to making sure our parents are cared for. Quite a delicate balance.

Lastly, do I look forward for grandkids ?  No lah.  Think I have what is needed to experience life full circle already. Maybe just to make sure the girls are given the best chance to succeed. Since young, I have always been self aware of my limited ability so already feel blessed in achieving something I never dream of today.

Finally, never takes thing for granted. Treasure what I have. Don't make the mistake that the Grass is always greener on the other side. 

Cory

2020-1110

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation - Radar Chart

Has been quite some time since last report in equity allocation. With the clean up done and funds raised, we have less than 2 months to have the portfolio finalize for next year. One minor change is the addition of the slider lines in the chart which may help with the visualization of % allocation that I used to do without needs of it myself.

It has been quite a fun ride this year and how the rebound immediately after the reits sell down in the last couple of days. Again this attest to the need to be constantly vested in the game which 70% suits me so far for dividend returns. And if the market is to swing down, I have sizeable cash for opportunity. Nevertheless the cost of holding cash is there which therefore I have been diverting some to CPF housing refund while we wait for monthly salary to re-fill it back. 

At one time I cast the net wider and scoped more than 10 reits which then funneled it down to 8. I also did quite a number of re-balance while at the same time diverting more shares to DBST for lower cost structure and Rights management ease.

The major change is the clearing up of STI ETF and investing directly to fund. This will helps improve the yield of the portfolio further while the Bonds of roughly 20% allocation remains unchanged.

Cory

2020-1107