Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Final Q2 2017 June Update

Today is the last day of Q2 '17. After my May Month Interim, managed to buy back, and more on Ascendas Reit, and FLT Reit which I earlier sold some this week. Glad with given the chance to fill back the hole I dig in my portfolio before the next REITs reporting season starts. I have also done more trading but it maybe too hard to blog each of them. Portfolio trend is lesser STI Index, due to strong run in banks.

Here's Q2'17 result. A further improvement from interim Q2 on link here.

With STI YTD returns about 12% currently, Cory Q2 returns of 9.8% YTD requires a little more ( excl. Div ) to catch-up. However compared to start of the year, the result has largely improved. Few things did well to improve my returns.

Good
- Regional exposure through Reits
- Singtel impact by 4th Telco is minimal compared to others

Bad
- QAF continue softening this week



Cory
20170630

Cory Diary : AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL REIT - 2

I blogged about Aims Reit exactly 2 months ago. Link here. Since then it has moved up nearly 5%. And this exclude dividends distributed. People is recognizing the return value. At current $1.47 price, the yield is about 7.5%. Still so good. My wish is the reit needs only to maintain their dpu performance.

Considering current investment climate, there is not better alternative that provide good value for money i feel personally. At this price range, I am not buying more as I have quite a significant exposure or so sadly because i feel there is still some room to go up but risk has to be mitigated. And neither am I selling even if the price indeed moves up.

So what would be a possible sell price ? At $1.605, dividend yields go just below 7%. So is not hard to achieve provided investors can understand the long term stability of this reit growth in dpu. What would de-rail my investment plan ? Macro event and the reit significant deterioration in their performance. At the mean time, continue riding the market doing nothing on this counter.


Cory
20170627

Cory Diary : Singapore Savings Bonds experience ( SSB )

This is the website of SSB. http://www.sgs.gov.sg/savingsbonds/Your-SSB/This-months-bond.aspx
Every month SSB will update with new tranche for purchase with appropriate rates as below picture.

Purchase is simple online. I have tested few times using DBS website. Application is $2 each time.
Dividends credited to my DBS saving account after 6 months automatically.

To sell is not hard too as I have tested it literally. However do note your transaction and amount each time you purchase or withdraw as there is no easy access to SSB historical records that you can tell in the website when you sell. Bank statements in the web is backdated to 2 months so provide no helps too. However I do get paper mail statement as equity trades done.

The highest effective interests rate is only if you hold it for 10 years and is quite attractive considering is "risk-less". However if you withdraw like I did, the rates will be reduced per table of the link above and still not bad. There is a limit of 100K even if I want to put more unfortunately.

Unlike traded bond, there is no capital gain or loss. True capital protected in the sense less sovereign risk. Due to SSB nature, in my next dividend and investment reports, I will move them under Cash/Fixed deposit category instead. This will better reflect the right yield and portfolio investment equity returns. Meaning my equity annual dividends report will exclude SSB dividends.

I plan to maximize my allocation surely. It beats Fixed Deposits hand down.


Cory
20170625

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170617

Normally I do not comment much on my short term trades as I do a lot within a year if you have followed. As I have less creative ideas recently, I may as well talk a little on it.

Recently, I sold ASCENDAS REIT. If one who has been following this reit, it always seem to be in all time high (including dividends). Aiming for it is like forever. You will never get it cheap. And you will regret it if you don't. So what I did recently is to buy some only. And when price go up, I bought a little more for more buffer. And that's how I got my 10% profit within 6 months. So why do i want to sell it since is so hard to accumulate it ?

Well .... I do some maths and find this year has significant more run up in share price and that's  like 1.5 years of dividends and yield dropped below 6% so there is potential of much bigger correction to come. Well I could regret later but then money in pocket already and my 40K annual dividends will still be on track. I could have killed the golden goose. Hope not because I do like this one.

Here' the trade. So I am out-of-stock on this one.

(updated for privacy)

If you also remembered, I blogged on needs for oversea earning exposure in reit. One of those is FRASERS L&I TR. I thought is a gem. Luck on my side, the stock run up significantly too. I sold some to par down my stake to original level. We termed it re-balance. I would probably show my trades after the dusts are settled. Double digits gain.

Finally, the next stock I sold is LIPPO MALLS TR shares. This one pains me too because I do like the Indonesia growth story and the REIT seems running well. As you may know is more than 8% yield stock. To relieve my pain, I sold only half. I have some concern on the recent management change in this trust and First Reit. And lock-in 8% gains.

There are more trades made but 3 mentioned here is enough for me today. Cash raised for more battles to come. Sad.


Cory
20170617

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Retracement Self-Learning

Fibonacci Retracement

As usual, I am not an expert in Technical tools. We can however try to use this to time our trade after FA. As dividend investor, getting in low enough is important so that we have a better pie in DPU and Capital gains if any.

Using Fibonacci Retracement can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels.

Thanks to Investing Note again which provide free charting and customization for my learning. https://www.investingnote.com

Again, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example again, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines too ?

As bad news came in last quarter report, we returned to below $0.70. Will it get worst. I bet there is good chance to retrace to $0.65 based on MACD further guidance. And this level maybe good entry point for me but we can decide later.

Cool ?


Cory
20170613

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Extensions Self-Learning

Fibonacci Extensions

First to say I am no expert and trying to learn by myself Fibonacci Extensions. Why ?

Simply it is one of few key tools we can time our sell trades. For people who are not new to stock trading, there will be time when our stock just runaway after we sold. So when to sell can be useful. When stock hits high when is best time to sell ? Valuation point ? Macro condition ? Tool ? Tips ? Supports and Resistances ?

Using Fibonacci Extensions can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. There is no need to modify below because is so complete on the definition I feel. Surely is much easier to understand if we have some background on Fibonacci Retracement indicator.

Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move. The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%.

Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move.

The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%. Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.

One useful tool I used is in Investing Note which provide free charting and customization for example adding 138.2% line. https://www.investingnote.com

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

As reminder, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines ? Beauty of nature isn't it, or so to speak since I do have to kind of find the fit into the chart. I have manually added the 138.2% line as I thought it can be important reference.

The blue handles are the key points I use to extrapolate the chart in fiibonacci-cally way ... :)
And they are near good volume as well.

As bad news came in last quarter report, we almost return to 100% range around $0.695. Which kind of happen but only after ex-dividend. If good news has come and hopefully next quarter report, $0.828 or realistically 0.82 (around 161.8%) about range is the resistance point to sell. Of course this has to overcome my 138.2% resistance first.

Exciting ?


Cory
20170611

Cory Diary : What does XIRR 6.8% Annualized return looks like ?

When we have $10,000 and annual returns of like 5%, it seems to take forever to achieve financial freedom. However Freedom is about going through the learning experiences. The anxiety of market dynamics. The building up of portfolio. The compounding of what one has.

Here's a chart of 6.8% Annualized growths mean in green.

Not going to lie is easy but is not improbable either.

Talking to myself mode. Continue to stay nimble, invest what I can sleep on, cut loss, study financial report, use a bit of TA, don't go on margin, reasonable margin of safety, logical diversification and don't gamble in rubbish stocks. Stock tips from forums, blogs, analysts, friends and relatives are just a dream for me to dream.


Cory
20170610

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation 20170604

My heart screaming to write something today and decided to do a clean up / review my asset allocation.

Here's the pic.

From the chart, if we are to total up MMF and Deposits, that 26%. MMF is Money Market Fund ready for investment. If I am to surrender my Insurance, that will boost to 31% which matches my Equity allocation. However I am unlikely to do that. Nevertheless, this is the War Chest. At 26%, is still a little high. I need to lower Deposits allocation to 20% but may need to reserve this bullet.

Bonds and Preference 13% provides a low yield on the whole. I maybe able to squeeze something for better later but for now it stays and provide the stability to the assets.

Overall Investment allocation I would consider Equity, Property and Bonds/Pref which totaled 53%.
If some may remembered ( Link ), my Cash/FD was at 34% and Equity 22% about 4 months ago. Current allocation is way better and met way above my target and allow me to capture this year upside nicely.

The first 5 months have been great for equity holders mostly. Will Portfolio continues to grow till 2017 ends ? I believe there is still a little leg to go. Will have to stay nimble and watch for major market turning if any. Touch wood.


Cory
20170406