Showing posts with label Maths. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maths. Show all posts

Nov 17, 2021

Cory Diary : Stock Return Comparisons with Pivot Table

Often portfolio re-balance allocation is to achieve mental peace and managing risk through allocation. There is also different strategies on how we invest resulting interesting insights. Few days ago started playing with Excel Pivot table. Two columns of interests are compared. Below is a table compiled some time back.


If we look at AMD (1st row) it appears 2.2% allocation resulting 12.8% of total portfolio profit. Reason being due to reduction of AMD allocation by about 1/3 after profit made. AMD continues to move up though so missed out slightly more gain but is ok as 2/3 is still in the game which can help us to weather any storm later if the portfolio get hits. And the 1/3 cash returned is working somewhere else anyway.

The re-balance money theoretically is use for re-investment into Tesla considering the portfolio always have ready cash in account for opportunities. And in this case the plan is to re-purchase Tesla shares back to the original level after few days of Elon's Tweet Sales. However, this was only executed recently. Why 15.2% return of portfolio then ? Due to the trade timing for obvious reason it will go down, 60% of the shares were traded off to protect the profit. But with Elon, anything goes. So trading off 100% seems too risky even though the situation looks quite obvious.

This trading story applies similar to Ascendas Reit too as you can see YTD Ascendas has 9.1% profit despite it only moves up 3.3% so far since beginning of Jan'21.  A strategy which we actually applied on US stocks. Will we increase Ascendas allocation ? No, as it has 11.3% allocation unless we have exceptional reason. Should we reduce ? No, as well as it is not outsized and helping to drive dividend part of the portfolio.

Another interesting counter is DBS. 4.2% allocation responsible for 24.3% profit. As previously blogged, reducing the allocation. It was like 11% to 13% allocation probably. How we locking profit more as the share price go up while we feel potential gain getting smaller by the day. DBS still toppish resulting outsize gains. A story where despite reduced allocation, this year gains are still there.

Profit Grand total is 75.8% and not 100% because some profitable positions are closed. It has been quite profitable year since Year 2019 which still holding the return record but I suspect this year has a good chance that it can overtake it while balancing Dividend and Capital gains.

Please dyodd as trading do have risk that one has to manage. Sharing my personal experience.


Cheers

Cory
2021-1117

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Jun 7, 2021

Cory Diary : Weighted Average Cost of Capital ( WACC)

"Low-interest rates may also lead to NLT’s regulatory weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for the next review period (Jan 2023-Dec 2027) to be revised down from 7% currently, adversely impacting distributions potentially. In addition, there is no visibility on any acquisition by NLT which could be positive catalyst in the long term."

Bumped today on how people is concern with WACC. So I started to do some research into it. Basically this can helps to determine how regulator managed regulated companies.

" A high weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, is typically a signal of the higher risk associated with a firm's operations. Investors tend to require an additional return to neutralize the additional risk. ... In theory, WACC represents the expense of raising one additional dollar of money. "


The WACC formula is as such



Basically is the weighted amount of Equity Cost and Debt Cost.

Cost of Debt

2.87% of 509,120k and 1.2% 155,587k
= Weighted will be (14,612k + 1,867k ) /664707k
= 2.48%

Cost of Debt Variables

Gross debt 666M
Market Cap 3683M
Tax rate 17%


CAPM

CAPM model to estimate cost of equity.

Cost of Equity

Let's say Risk free rate 1.53% per Singapore Saving Bond
Expected Rate of return say 8.3%. ( 5.34% yield + 3% growth )
Cost of Equity = 1.53% + 0.3 x ( 8.34% - 1.53% ) = 3.573% ( 8.34% for Beta = 1 )

The calculation of Beta is tricky. Who should we use as reference for NLT ? Should we use STI Index ? Since NLT listed in Year 2017, their stock price has raised more than 21% compared to STI -1.3%. Yahoo put NLT beta as 0.3. Some other put 0.5. This one need another article to think about and compute !

If we assume Beta = 0.3,  plug in all this data into the model, we have

WACC = Weighted ( Cost of Equity + Cost of Debt )
= 3683M x 3.573%/(666M+3683M) + 666M x 2.48% x (1 - 17%) / (666M + 3683M)
= 131.59M/4349M + 16.52M x 0.83/4349M
= 0.03 + 0.00315
= 0.03315 or 3.315% ( or 7.3% for Beta = 1 )


Below is NLT model. There are other moving wheels such as Depreciation and Opex for Rev determination.




Interesting Exercise. However this is my First pass. Please DYODD.


Cory
2021-0606

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Jul 26, 2020

Cory Diary : Increasing my active investment for Passive Dividends

The Goal

The Covid-19 throws a spanner on increasing Portfolio to $1.3M quickly from 1.2M as in we need to be careful in our investment injection by $100k which is part of Warchest. So why this amount ?
.
Here's the link because of the compounding effect @1.3M per my lifestyle. (contingent to yield 5.3% able to maintain @ 1% growth). However if the stock price keeps increasing but business fundamental weaken or not enough improvement, the yield will be lowered. To compensate it, higher cash inject will be needed or expenses reset as we age. Hope I don't lose you by now !

Let me explain again using Reit term. if the stock price increase by 1% (Growth), and we have corresponding reduction in yield say -1% (DPU in cents maintain), it kind of neutralize the compounding effect. This is not good as we lose that year of compounding. So DPU has to increase accordingly to maintain the yield. If is not which could be, and to bring the portfolio backup,  we need to increase our investment through injection or we spend less to support the injection. Get it ?

Of-course we can increase our yield by investing in riskier asset to maintain it but this is not sustainable long term and will mean Portfolio keeps getting RISKIER over time .... . And that is Dangerous which some people may make, like me on what I feel right now  ? LOL

Therefore, come to think of it, is not so easy as the calculation is a simplified model. To mitigate it therefore using above example, if 1% growth of 1.3M that is equal to $13k has to come out of Real growth. When there is no DPU growth, we need to inject in this amount of $13k or spend less to support it roughly.

This is why advocating dividend re-investing is important or injection from saving if you have a job as changing stock aren't easy for same quality. But the key is capital gain has it's price to fulfill for dividend investing.


Something new today.


Cheers

Cory
2020-0726









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Oct 9, 2019

Cory Diary : All in Our Minds

There are many times I am asked to take profits. Reason being people has the conception that cash is the safe harbor. A rest point before we venture out again. This mindset is not wrong when one trades for a living especially speculative short trade.

Post today is I hope to share how Cory thinks from another perspective. Often we hear people make so and so $Xx,xxx but then lose it all or worst in negative. The angle I do is to treat profit earned as part of base capital in every new year.

Let's say I started with $500k in 2018 and ended with $580k. That's 80k profits. In Year 2019, I will treat $580k as my new cost structure (or base capital) thereby zero-out my profit. Why we do this is to overcome the human weakness of "Feeling Rich" and lose them back to the market.

When we do this long enough, for some reason cutting loss is more a mechanic nature rather than a pain-in-the-heart. Interestingly, we could also sell a stock at say $1.50 near end of Year 2018 but buy them back in Jan 2019 at much higher price sold earlier. Is like hyped on a Jan market trend trading mechanism. Fortunately, I do't this often ! Cory aren't crazy but it does happen sometimes .... ... ...

Since Cory Portfolio is ignited on every first day of new year, safe harbor has no meaning from previous year trades. Therefore, Cory result is often Year-to-date (YTD) meaning is the measure of Profit or Loss  from 1st Jan base to current date figure. This keeps Cory on toes and not feeling rich. Historical past year trades are just for "Glorification" use only, nothing else.

If Cory feels the market going to crash like 2008 GFC, he can relieve all his counters as he wanted but that's not because he has make enough profits. There is no relevancy between getting out-of-market and having make or loss enough.

Is all in our minds.


Cory

2019-1008

Oct 16, 2016

Cory Diary : Astronomical Returns

I have been seeing astronomical returns from some forum recently. It easily get people attention. That's what it does. But what's matter at the end of the day is how much you truly made at specific time frame. Why I say that is because market goes up and down. And relative performance measures need to account for time frame with reasonable period length to allow for stability.


STI Index


STI with Dividends from 2009-2016 = 9% annual returns after cost.

Let's take a peak of some period after global financial crisis (GFC) based on STI. Since is reasonable not to choose the bottom. At a height of STI 1900 on May 2009 will be something i am comfortable with. The current STI Index is at 2800. The XIRR ( Annualised returns ) excluding dividends are 5.3%. If we are to include dividends that will be like 8~9%. That's like 7 years after GFC.

Percentage can be quite misleading as it is open to abuse with time, value weight-age and cost structure. There is also price spread which can cause a large dent and trustworthiness. So to ball park a figure, if we are to put $100,000 into a fund 7 years ago just using 5.3% annual return figure, your value should be around $147,000 excluding "dividends", and we are taking the lowered STI price of today. Meaning 47% profit is the Minimum Expectation.

Hello ! you have to have 47% profit at that specific time frame because that is what all investors should have as a baseline. And I have even excludes dividends. So are you getting this amount in total else is time you question your judgement.


Cory
20161016

Sep 18, 2016

Cory Diary : Calculating Return in Equity - Part 2

In this continuation of calculating equity return, let's simulate a scenario that on certain years we have very good returns. And we feel rich that during that periods, mentally we think we can afford to lose. This can be at portfolio level or Individual Stock that we have grown to love.


As the table above, I picked year 2009 and 2012 where Cory has strong gains and have them tweaked about 50% lower returns as we are less careful with money and that we have fallen into a tunnel vision of justifying more risk on just one or two stocks which have been been a key lifter of the entire portfolio.

This is not unrealistic. Is quite common we see at portfolio level we are doing well just because of a few of them or maybe even just one counter. And if that one is soured later on, we like to know the impact.

From the table we can see Annualised returns reduced to 4.2%. And for the above example is a $61, 000 hits on return of $100, 000 investment. Do remember return on such over 10 years compounded is quite significant even for just 1% point.

The next time you feel a particular stock has gained 100% return for you that you can afford to lose them back since at counter level you will not lose, better think again.


Have a nice day.

Cory
20160918




Sep 11, 2016

Cory Diary : Calculating Return in Equity

When I look across STI Index back 10 years there are 3 major down levels. If your investment have survived this three crisis give yourself 2 STARS.

1. 2008 US - Sub Prime Financial Crisis
2. 2011 European - Greece Crisis
3. 2015 China - Stock Crisis

When we start measuring our performance matters. Anyone who invest right after 2008 bottom will most likely survive well today especially for those who invest big. If you did big please give yourself 2 STARS.

Using $100,000 Investment seed as if I am a Fund Manager, applied to my past 10 years performance. And then compared to two tweaked samples calculation on strong and mediocre performances.


The first table is Cory returns. 10 years Annualised return is 6.7%. I give myself 2 STAR.

The 2nd Table has return tweaked with smaller losses in year 2008 from -52.5% to -25%. And in year 2011 from -13.1% to -8%. This 2 years are periods where market is bad. 10 Years annualised returns boosted to 9.5%. Give yourself 3 STARS if you hit this level of performance.

The 3rd Table has return tweaked to have lower return in other years only. 10 years Annualised returns come down to 2.3%. This is in the upper range of fixed deposits. Still better than cash. 1 STAR.

What I understand from the tables are reducing large looses are important. Consistent performance is even more critical.

How many STARS you have ?


Cory
20160911

Jul 18, 2016

Cory Diary : Middle Income Crisis

Gross Monthly Income From Work
Median Gross Monthly Income From Work of Full-Time Employed Residents for Year 2015 : S$3949

Monthly Income
After deducting Employer CPF : S$3375

"The variable portion of your wages can include the 13th month bonus or Annual Wage Supplement (AWS), bonus and variable payments. These payments are not compulsory, unless they are in your contract."

Assuming 3 months including AWS, Annual Income including employee CPF : $50,625
If you are drawing annual income in the range of $100,000, do you still consider yourself "Middle Income" ?


Cory
20160718







Jun 21, 2016

Cory Diary : What Expenses to cut ?

Expenses have been talked about for some time among bloggers. We know saving is important. Ability to grow our income is even better. Taking care of our owns family cannot be forsaken. Neither can we do away with insurance.

What if I have multiple or huge loans and I got retrenched and I do not want it to be a life style changing event ? Here i will go about it. Total up my lifestyle expenses, work out the cash flow and finally filtered out the options.


EXPENSES

Monthly Expenses
Parent Allowances : 600 ( at minimum )
Hospitalization Insurance : 100 ( Saving/Life $250 )
Housing Loan : $1000 Interest ( $4000 Principal ) (arbitrary)
Utilities/Telco Bills : $200
Clothing : 200
Transport : 220 (Multiple of wife/kid will roughly be a car expense )
Food : 620
Cable TV : 50
Newspaper : 30 ( Prefer to read from paper. To me is quality of life )
Hobby : 50 ( Personal Interests )
Sports : 70 ( Exercise and Meeting with Friends )
Groceries : 180

Annual Expenses
Home Decoration and Appliances : 2000 (arbitrary)
Computer and Home Equipment : 1400 (arbitrary)
Travel : 2000 (arbitrary)
Medical : 500 ( Clinic )
Special Meals : $1200

This works out to  S$3912 monthly expenses after tax to support.


CASH FLOW

Monthly Cash Flow is important because some of our investments takes a longer term return path such as housing loan and "Saving" Insurance which requires monthly payments.

-3912 Expenses
-4250 Housing loan and Insurance
+2100 CPF Deduction to support home loan assuming i have a sizeable sum of cash inside.
+2600 Dividends ( Based on my current Passive Income )

I will need income of minimum $3462 monthly to support the above if I am retrenched. Luckily my dividends and CPF buffered the problem. Can you imagine without ?

What are my other big ticket options.


  1. Find a job/ Part time that can fulfilled the gap at minimum. ie. Potential.
  2. Married a hardworking wife ie. hmmm do i have to wait till retrenched ? Married up shiok right. Not an option since this negate the problem itself even though it is an option if you have options to choose a life partner. LOL
  3. Increase my investment to double my dividends. ie Possible. Required large saving. I should work on it asap.
  4. Get a cheaper home. ie. Down grade lah. Sian man. Move it lower. "Desperate" option. Can last some time.
  5. Divest investment property. ie. Maybe can consider based on market condition. To sell at right time maybe important.
  6. Borrow from Relatives and Friends ie. Not small sum ... Matter of principle not to tap them unless i have gone through desperate measures ie. Cut expenses ... and still not enough
  7. Retrenchment Benefits. ie. Choose companies that values employee. This may mean going to Civil Service and MNC first in my early career. ie. if 1 year service equate to 1 month severance. 15 years is 15 months of salary. This can buffer many years of cash flow.



LIFE STYLE

Why am I not cutting down on expenses ? Back to the top. I want to maintain my lifestyle.
Need to anticipate to avoid this decision altogether in later life because is painful after a life time of work. So it comes to Saving and getting a job options. But I can't get another job if I am still with one now. That's left with me the only Option that is Saving. Obvious enough. :(

These narrowed to a few things I could focus on.

Saving => Increase Dividends
Extravagance must be avoided in my early years. Fewer travel. No car. Take bus. Fewer restaurants. No expensive celebrations. No smoking and drinking. No gambling. No expensive clothing. Don't buy unproductive things that will be kept in the store room.

Cash Flow => Increase Dividends
No wonder there is advise not to pay up our housing loan. Is the cheapest loan we can get to bump up dividends to support it. Cash is King only when we can use it.

CPF => Buffer home payments when needed. Meantime getting good interests and additional insurances.

Retrenchment Benefits => Good benefits is important. Choose your company wisely. And use the benefits to support your dividend income when possible. The last thing we want is to spend on holiday trip unless you have enough.

What others ? Tell me leh.


Cory
20160620






May 21, 2015

Cory Diary : Save Your Saved

Trying to control my excitement this afternoon in staff meeting. Just as soon i have gone through the weekly agenda, i pulled up the Compound Interest Formula to the projected screen. A 10 minute effort before the meeting started while i was waiting for everyone to arrive.

"I like to show something to all of you today. Here's the formula of compound interests for $1000.

Year 1, 3%, $1030 ...
Year 5, 3%, $1159 ...
Year 24, 3%, $2033

Your money just grow and doubled just with 3% annual compounded after 24 years. Now think it this way, if you do nothing with your money and let the inflation monster eats them 3% annually. Yes you still have $1000 absolute on paper but you are actually left with only $481 in real material term that you can use.

Compound Effects are double edge sword. Doing nothing is quite a damaging no action move. What can make this worst ? A saver who holds $1,000,000 for 24 years. The effect is multiplied 1000 times up / down according to her action. ( In-between if saved overtime ). If  you are a super passive saver, you are just working your ass off to fight inflation in your twilight years to Save your Saved. You aren't Saving.

Step back from your work and think for a moment. "

Two of them walk off before the session ended for another meeting. One excited. Two others not sure...
Maybe i should try again ...

Cory
21st May 15





Jan 24, 2015

Cory Diary : Portfolio Segments

Thanks to Tony Robbins new book called MONEY Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom, I get to know Ray Dalio. He has strong believe of 4 seasons portfolio that can weathers across the economic cycles at all times.

Here’s the asset allocation that Dalio came up with for this strategy:

30% Stocks
40% Long-Term Bonds and 15% Intermediate-Term Bonds
7.5% Gold and 7.5% Commodities

Here's mine.

Cory Portfolio
Structured : Preference Shares and Bonds.
Ray's bond  ~55% in total. If i include relative higher fixed returns from  RMB and AUD, probably about 25-30% range which is about half from it.

Commodity: This is a little tricky to gain exposure to it.Using commodity and energy related counters from my stock equities assuming their close relation to represent the segment, i am not far off in percent wise. This do reduce my equity portfolio volatility indirectly.






Four Seasons
Gold : Investment is virtual with reputable banks. Why single out gold from commodity can be easily referred to rationale on why National Banks hold Gold. In this segment i am pretty low (1.5%) compared to four season portfolio (7.5%).

Stocks : Align in percentage term after deducting commodities and energy related counters.








Cory Portfolio Re-Calibrated
So how do i measure up after re-calibrating my definition and removing other cash components ?


Conclusion

I can see that my portfolio has slightly higher volatility and less down side protection with fewer gold for higher chance of better returns.

Few questions in my minds. I would presume Ray based off US currency which i am not and secondly what if we have hyperinflation, will this strategy continues to work ?



Cory
24 Jan 2015


Sep 9, 2014

Cory Diary: How much is considered too much cash for rotting?

A friend pose this interesting question to me over my concern with inflation eating into our hard earn money. To point out how serious the problem is, i have it structured below.

Let's think of a scenario. I have idle cash of $1M. Considering inflation of 3%, that's 30K loss annually. We know how rich we are is how much we save. Using this basis, if I save 30K annually from my monthly earning, i am just working my arse off just to level up my networth. The curse of being a millionaire ?

Let's go further. For those who are more financially awakened, potential returns may average 5% annually. $1M sitting idle is 50K loss. Has risk adversity reached a new height in stupidity ?

Not surprising for those Savvy Investor who hits 10% return. That's 100K average. If you have this money and they are not working because you are so busy with work, do yourself a favor, sit down and do some Maths. What the hell am I talking ? A Savvy Investor will not have this problem.


Now where am I ...


Cory
9th Sept 2015

Jul 14, 2014

Cory Diary : CPF Minimum Sum 155K

The minimum sum has been increasing for years. Based on my earlier rough estimation is certainly moving faster than the inflation. My logic is that there is an initial growth phase to close the gap as the current minimum sum lags significantly behind the minimum needs for basic retirement. Once this is met or politically so, i would expects the the growth to follow inflation trend.

Singapore is one of the lowest tax countries in the world. This do not happen by chance but by the expectation that retirement is mainly self-funded, and CPF is a commitment to the society that we meet our minimum obligation.

Considering the retirement needs in future dollars, releasing CPF money will not going to help much to our financial wealth being. This is not hard to deduce considering a million dollar without investment will easily be expended in 15 years in earlier article. Even with 2.5%-4% returns, the minimum sum will not be enough to meet my personal retirement needs. If we understand the concept, will people still care about not meeting the minimum sum less the purpose is to withdraw them asap, and this can be worrying.

The logic is simple after i did my own lifestyle count. By the time I retire, my  investable should be at least 10x of the minimum sum of today money. If i am not achieving that yet, is time i find a way to earn more and be Accountable for my own financial well being before is too late.

I start to draw out all my investments. And soon realised that CPF money sits very well as the guaranteed portion of my portfolio that provides stable and min. baseline returns. Withdrawing CPF is certainly not an answer to it. Is our money safe ? Last i check our government prints their own money so this should not be an issue. Is better to be locked away till 65 from anyone or even myself. The monthly withdrawal feature provides an additional layer of protection for my golden years. Once we put further thoughts into it, CPF is actually a safety net insurance scheme at national level.


Cory
13th July'14

Jun 22, 2014

Cory Diary : Retirement Amount


Retirement Amount

One of the misconception about saving is how long it can last once we retired.
Assuming no investment and just plain saving bank. See Table 1.

Table 1 : Without inflation adjustment







Above is a simulation without inflation. How will this impact me ?
Assuming 3.5% inflation rate, the monthly absolute amount increases as Table 2.

Table 2 : With inflation adjusted







So how long can my S$1M last actually ? See Table 3.



















Just  below 16 years. After that i am on my own ...

For those who are curious on whatif Inflation hits 5%. The answer is 14 years.
That's how long S$1,000,000 can last.


Cory
22nd June 2014



Mar 25, 2014

Cory Diary : Contemplating Retirement

Retirement has been in my mind for a long time. If i make that move there is no turning back. Two key concerns in the back of my mind.


Net Worth Hurdle

First to lose is the monthly income. In addition to that, bonuses which always pull my net worth a mile. Will I be able to stomach possible decrease psychologically ?



Left is the investable net worth chart captured over the years.What can we understand from the annualized return rates compared to investment return rates.








Social Hurdle

The connection with colleagues.What can i do so that my experiences will not be lost. How can I continue to be relevant to the society ?


Cory
23 Mar 2014

Feb 1, 2014

Cory Diary : Base Lining my Stock Investments

What do i mean by that ?

The goal of investment is to be able to generate more and more cash. We do not want to go up and down equally or similarly. In the long run, is useless and time wasted. And worst, loses all your capital.

In summary, base lining my profits/losses is resetting my Capital in a regular manner. A fresh start and perspective into my portfolio. And re-evaluating all my holdings.

For example I have 100K capital. Earned 30K by the end of year. In the new year, I have 130K capital. Zero out my profits/losses in every counters. Doing so i am basically treating 130K as my own money from my "saving" account as though is a fresh fund. I do this annually.

Upon doing that, I am resetting my stock initial investment cost to the price of the new year in a new page. And then i re-start to re-evaluate my holdings at this cost level which then kickoff a re-balancing of my portfolio.

This put my thought into a more balance approach with no baggage. To know whether we have execute this mental method successfully, you would have forgotten your initial buy price of prior years like me do.

Ok ! You can call me absent minded. :P


Cory
1st Feb 2014




Jan 1, 2014

2013 Portfolio Review

2013 Measure
SG Stock XIRR figure for the year ended up 11.74%.Compared to STI which is -0.85% (2 Jan'13-2 Jan'14) excluding dividends, performing above after taking into account STI 2-3% dividends.

Annualized Performance since 2007 will be 11.6%.
Dividends received this year $28, 940.

Did well in expanding my dividends and performing above STI. Another key area is the punch (Invest amount) approximately doubled. Net Worth reached a new milestone despite spending is up significantly.

Another area i am happy with is that Reits did not do significant damage to my portfolio. Looks like trading them helps to negate their impacts this year. They will remain a key segment for re-balancing my portfolio for a long time.

Portfolio details
Reit returns flat after consideration of capital loss. In the aspect, on the bright side, they will be position to be better in 2014.
Fixed return continues to maintain good stability.
Growth and SME stocks see large rises.

2014 Focus
Still under invest last year despite some step-up in absolute amount added, my wish is to add more counters and depth for specific counters. However i will continue to exercise caution steps.
Goal : 20% more

Dividends wise, with tapering reduction, contribution from Reit can be lesser. Higher business cost may also means lesser distribution. Goal: Maintain 2013 at minimum.

To reduce impact from any single stock, number of counter has to increase but this will tax my mental bandwidth. Therefore stock selection has an angle of less risk priority.

Re-balancing of my portfolio still required and needs to be watched closely.


Cory
1st Jan 2014