Cory Diary : Information familiarization work of SPH 2021-0510

SPH 1st Half '21

119M Operating Profit (16% Increase from last year ).

The increase is smaller if we consider more than 6M divestment gain (Buzz), and 3M lesser retrenchment cost therefore lower staff cost. There is also lesser interest cost about 1.6M, and about 700k foreign exchange gain which I am not exactly sure count towards operating profit. However there is a statement which indicate it is from "1(a)(ii) Notes: Profit after taxation is arrived at after accounting for:" which are there misc saving/cost.

SPH has net asset of 5.2B after account for 3.5B of borrowing. If we use gear standard to measure gearing, is very roughly 40%. Net Cash equivalent about 959M.

Shares Structure

As at 28 February 2021, the Company had 1,591,512,137 ordinary shares,

16,361,769 management shares

On a fully diluted basis 1st half earning is 5 cents. NTA increase significantly to $2.24 from $2.06 at group level.

Media

".. Media advertisement revenue fell by S$46.5

million (27.9%) with Newspaper print advertisement revenue declining by S$36.3 million

(28.8%), and magazine advertisement revenue declining by S$8.5 million (55.5%) partly

due to the cessation of the operations in Malaysia. ...

... accelerated by the impact from the Covid-19

pandemic. Pretax loss of 9,7M if we exclude JSS.... "

SPH to restructure media business into not-for-profit entity

Transfers all media assents including leasehold New and Print centers, Digital Investment asset and Intellectual property rights and publications. 80M cash and 30M of SPH shares/ Reits units. That's what I got from listening to Chairman from you tube.

Q&A

The two questions by CNA digital in the press conference are quite interesting.

The first is about editorial integrity. Even at today structure, the gov has close reach if they find something not ok with SPH being a profit enterprise. So this is really puzzling question as she seems to indicate today SPH put advertisers more.

The second question is on earlier retrenchment has failed and who should be accountable. In corporate management, is not unseen that poor performing unit can undergoes many rounds of cost cutting. And if still not enough, it can be closed or sold. So to mention about accountability is insinuating something else which I find not really fair and unfortunate. Even if Media finally spinoff the cut earlier is still necessary as some departments like LBY said on advertorial side will be permanent and investment can be channeled to elsewhere.

In both questions, that Journalist imo makes two serious mistake. Did she put journalists of SPH lower and using SPH conference to judge SPH CEO that earlier retrenchment is unnecessary and he needs to bare the consequences ? Frankly she has no right. Is up to the management board.

All the others questions by other journalists are very professional. This also attest to us that SPH management board is right to spinoff Media to ensure high quality of journalism continues to remain despite business difficulty.

The CEO response was not so gentleman but he was hit below belt. Key takeaway, both the Chairman and CEO pretty aligned in the direction of where SPH should go. And I also find LBY performance impressive. I said my piece.

Investment

The spinoff is to cut losses quick as likely the advertisers won't be coming back unlike Retail Malls. One my think there is potential the stock price might reflect quick rebound like many turnaround. However this spinoff action sounds more like saving SPH rest of businesses rather than unclipping their wings since most property counters today are below NAV valuation significantly.

Cory

2021-0509

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : When Bad News come, it Pours

The Virus finally hits the fan on the less developed countries. I was wondering why the situation so bad in America before the election. Probably the focus of the Media was on Trump to "Engineered" his down fall. Now with the Virus fanning strongly in India, Malaysia, Indonesia, .... this is indication that humanity may be reaching herd immunity while vaccinations are being deployed. There will be lots of sorrow and concern. 

Comparing to them, TTSH outbreak is really miniscule however we can't afford to let our guard down for it can also get out of control. In the past days restriction and quarantine procedures hitting the Island nation. It was dramatic change of event from Oasis of the East. With the virulent of the virus many could not afford to take it likely.

Unfortunately the contagious nature of this virus that keeps mutating, it has been a constant battle going on and on.  We can't have our life be on constant On/Off every few months even though we have basic standard to upkeep. Is like doing "Cha cha Dance" every time there is an outbreak. We probably may need to reach a point of have to hit 100% vaccination target and reach a stage where we allow virus a free pass through to return life to normal. This probably would need to take more concrete data to make sure the assumption is reliable on the safety and impact if any. Mean time my Mall Reits took some cutting .... .

While the country is trying to vaccinate the population, a smaller groups of Singapore and PR stationed oversea have been forgotten. How many will want to take the risk to fly back considering the daily infection rate from oversea coming to Singapore and the quarantine periods back and fro- in dedicated hotels. Neither do they have priority in the host countries when comes to vaccination. Maybe this is what embassy is for. They need to do something especially so for countries that are so badly affected.

Then Yellen mentioned about possible rate hikes. And the market starts showing cracks. She slips out what they all think in the bottom of their heart. However America is a nation widely dependent on the stock market for their retirement. Everyone purses will be much smaller if the market is derailed. I think rate hikes will come. .The issue is when such that the condition is right. The pivot point could be when crypto gets out of hand challenging the might of US dollar. My US stocks jitter a bit and then fall back to normal volatility routine.

Ascendas Reit was cruising well and then they do another private placement at the lower band of the offering therefore higher discount. They seem to try to exhaust their ability to raise fund till no more. I think this last round has reflected some fatigue on the market or are investors missing something of the Reit. No doubt the price will recover with the dividends however are we gone with the days with minimal or no discount placement. Savvy investors may find this great opportunity to average down. However we need to be cautious to not just look at acquisition accretion but also the dilution of share with discount, resulting lower DPU in Net is worth the effort or the whole exercise is just about fattening Capitaland pocket ? Will Ascendas Reit continue to be of high standard as before or Investor needs to start crunching their numbers to micro level.

Started exploring Dogecoin Wallet recently. Take me days to install DogeCore. After it is done, comes to a halt when I could not install XMRIG .... to start easy mining ... to get some coins to try out. Seems like Anti-Virus treats it like a plague. I have a constant fear that my PC will be compromised as well. Will probably give up trying.

Lastly, portfolio year to date hits 5% returns. That's is like more than 7% behind STI Index ( Best Regional Stock this year so far ). It has been a long time that I am beaten so soundly. Interestingly, I am still feeling upbeat about my shares. That's conviction I guess or what's left of the hope I have ... ... ...

Cheers

Cory

2021-0508

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Frasers Cpt 1H2021

FCT has solid properties mainly in key locations next to MRT. Their returns grow with the Singapore economy and the mass population reside near to their malls.  The remarkable ones are Northpoint north wing and Waterway point which have Condo residences above their malls in Integrated concept to transport hub and community services. See below. Basically community revolves around this malls. They are basic necessity and which benefits further from WFH. Both malls are huge and for new comers therefore getting lost in there is normal.

In last week half year report, 1st half DPU 5.996 cents. In which 0.132 cents already distributed last year. If we annualized the result, is about 4.9% at $2.45.

If we roll back to year 2019, FCT hits 5.7% annualized at today price. DPU 14 cents. This is pre-covid. Logically speaking 2nd half will also see better result unless macro factor or .... . So it looks like a given in next half yearly amid expectation will be smaller increase.

Interestingly, the stock price did not manage to held up and fall back to $2.45 last week. We are talking about 28.4% dpu increase compared to last year where retail was in deep covid. Now with Vaccine deploying to masses and we getting to new normal, is not unreasonable to see stable 5% yield returns. That's like 12.5 cents of DPU annual. So if the market further corrects to $2.33 roughly a support point, that's will almost be a full year dpu. This will certainly make it easier to meet pre-covid yield LOL.

Question will be what will you do as a dividend player on a well established businesses ? Uncle Cory will have his grenades ready. Bazooka will probably be next.

Cory

2021-0426

PS. Current Bank loan rate is roughly 1.5%. FCT giving out stable 5%. Make sense to max out your home loan ?  There is always risk so DYODD.

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.