Cory Diary: Short Coming of Cumulative XIRR of Lifetime Result

Has been in market for more than 15 years. Over the years strategy changed with ones experience and learning. Sometime change for the better, sometimes worst. One indication is using Cumulative XIRR across all trades through the years.

For Cory, due to strong performance in 2019, the Cumulative XIRR since 2007 is now 7.2% as above. However this is from 2007 when Cory is still young man with all sort of ideas. 

How good is it to measure progress over time. Logically the cumulative will have to go up. But is this assumption right ? Let's try another table by injecting additional 10k profit into 2 scenarios. First scenario in Year 2007 and the second scenario in Year 2019 below.

From the above table,  there are much larger improvement in the score in 2007 ( 7.54% ) which is much more than Year 2019 ( 7.36% ) can provides. This is probably due to portfolio size and compounding over the years. What this mean is that it will be harder to push up the cumulative value even with good performance in later year. It will have take few more good years to see recovery.

To overcome this issue, we may have to use rolling years to accommodate this limitation. Here's the table. So you can see at 13th, 10th and 7th Years period  ... is down trend.

Now, if we have a major strategy change 7 years ago, we could see the progress at 5 years, 3 years and 1 year ago. This way "very past" performance do not cloud the future view.

What I am still deliberating is.... if a Guru has fantastic performance in his early years of investment life, will his performance stick with him for later years using cumulative metrics ?


Cory
2020-0107

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Review

The first day of trading for Year 2020 started with a Bang when the P/L hits more than 7 K and it seems like we will have a good start for the year till someone backside itchy and taunted Trump. Here's what I found.

"Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei taunted Donald Trump over the embassy attack."  

"Iran says Trump ‘can’t do a damn thing’ ."

As usual Trump tweeted. ‘He should have been taken out many years ago!’

Iran Generals dead in Iraqi's soil. And we celebrated the second say of trading with a reversal.Thank you everyone ! The good thing is I am still net positive for the year. And this tiny margin could vaporize as well.

Since last reported my Asset Allocation Tracking in Oct'19 I think is a good time to do this now again as there is nothing much to shout about on investment .... joking !
Not surprisingly the Saving continues to increase due to year end salary and bonuses. Some dividends came in as well from the Ascendas-h Tr cash distribution which is now merged as Ascott Trust. I also paid most of my major bills and allowance.

The volatility, and weaker USD for the past few months maybe a good opportunity to invest in USD. I could look for 2.5% Fixed Deposits or higher 3% plus structured products that is capital protected. Currently in exploration stage. But decision can be as quick as next week. 

I think the cash allocation needs to go below 3% to 4% consistently for efficient growth of capitals that do not need much work from me. I can earn quite an amount of interests. 


Net Property did not change much though I did notice an increase in property valuation from the transactions. For Year 2020, I am thinking of a plan for the account that pays for my loan to be self-sufficient. That's mean the cash-flow in > out for the entire loan duration. Not sure this can be done but it has to be safe and only need for me to check once in a blue moon. 


MMF is up due to some Equity sales before year ended 2019 which will be reserve for opportunity while collecting interests in cash management account. Equity has a target for dividend in Year 2020. Year 2019 exceeded. So I like to keep this in mind to continue the trend.



Cory
2020-0103

Cory Diary : Year 2019 Reit Year

We have come to an end in the last day of SGX Trading for Year 2019. For Income Investor this has been nothing but solid. S&P 500 has record year too. But it will be closer to home if we just look at Singapore Reits.

Cory Portfolio has large amount of Reits. And here's Performance tracked throughout 2019. There is some work but also a lot of investing fun provided is in profit ...

Cory Portfolio Table 

Year 2019 Realized and Unrealized Profit hits new record. Reits take up 70% of the profit. Just Reit alone the XIRR is 31.7% This is a Reit year. For year 2020 preparation there is some diversification shifts on segments as blogged earlier. Chances are yield compression is harder. For financial planning reason, there will be steps on going more into indexes to hold long term. Hopefully will have the opportunity to do so to allow the portfolio go through next stage of growth.

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (INDEX: FSTAS8670) returns 18.8% for the year.  LION-PHILLIP S-REIT (SGX: CLR) an ETF has 23.3% including dividend. So anyone who are vested in Singapore Reits will hit this range of score generally unless your pick is bias to extreme. Once again time in market has proven to be really true for Year 2019. If one has sit out, this year will be sorely missed.

Happy New Year !

Cory
2019-1231