Cory Diary : Sector Map Distribution 2018-1230

Just drawn up a map on my current equity investment portfolio. Do note SSB/Treasury, Pension and Fixed Deposits are not included.

Everything in percentage. There are mainly two areas which I will focus on here.


Dividend Play

About 50% in dividend focus equity (Trust/Reit). This will probably move to higher allocation in 2019. Net-link Trust will need to be watched closer as currently is a little over-allocated. Need to pay attention on how 5G plays out. One way is to increase my other dividend holdings. There are also good amount in Frasers and Maple families which are quite popular with investment community and I think is rightly so. Will it continues to do well in 2019 ?


Index and Bank

With rising rates, Banks will naturally benefits from it unless recession hits us. There are lots of noise in the market current whether 2019 is bull or bear. If I compute correctly, STI ETF yield is about 3.65% in 2018. What this mean is historically, STI price is relatively low using yield as benchmark. However we know that low can go lower just that the probability is smaller. Chart wise I think is unlikely to break support too. See link. Since STI Index is heavy on financials, higher exposure in the ETF is preferred. Unfortunately there is Telco element in it which I am not so sure. Therefore, I will still need to allocate some directly to bank counters.

I will be summarizing the final counters using radar and bubble after year 2018 truly ends.


Cory

2018-1230

Cory Diary : STI Index - Crucial Juncture

Most people who is well verse with STI Index would probably know that timing matters in STI Index investment. And going in lower will do us well in the future to come. So you may like to know that we are on the cross road for this period and the index is on one of it's low point of the wave fluctuation.

We have Tariffs, Brexit, Rate increase, US Shutdown, Syria pullout and SG Property Curbs and Poor Telco performance. There are so many negatives. Well, without them Index wouldn't be low, right ?

The above chart has a lot of approximations from a novice. So I won't be bothered to try to catch the ultimate bottom but appears 3000 range is strong. Question is do we dare to execute our buy ? I can't imagine if this range is broken. Maybe Trump is right ?



Cory
2018-1225

Cory Diary : Watchful Eyes on Land Mines 2018

Like any company, there is constant search for new blood to rejuvenate our portfolio. As time goes you will realize you get to know more companies and try them out. Some will end badly. A few will flourish. That's part of the game.

However, even a 1% position we will need to think carefully. Often I make the mistake of dismissing their impact which then adds up. For example my foray into tracking the few minuscule US stocks end up bad in the trade tariff frenzy. It could be a lot worst if is a much larger positions.


Land Mines

Passive investment to me is more on not running the businesses literally and there aren't a need to monitor their price closely. That's doesn't mean we are passive in keeping up on our entire portfolio and not checking how they do in price daily. There is constant look out for "Land Mines" who aren't really passive or new to you. What I mean is ones that your portfolio could take a large hit. Is very important at least to me to have a feel for them. That could result in cutting loss to avoid blow out, reducing exposure or averaging down. However needs to be careful of averaging down as it can cause a big dent to our investment if we are wrong.

I do a quick review of my database, and manage to get a list of potential "Land Mines" that I have manage to mitigate. How to read this table (below) is a little tricky. I can do this better but I feel this is not the focus I want to spend time on today. So there are 2 things to know.

1. The list for each column year will only appear if the losses are meaningful enough.
2. if the consolidated results across the year totaled in good losses will the stocks be mentioned.

Fortunately for the past 11 years (almost 11 ! touch wood) there aren't many potential mines. As for the 5 Digits losses, they are low level losses. Year 2018 has 3 and one of them is due to recent JD play.  I like to describe more on the 3 counters with 5 Digits losses in totaled namely MTQ, Mun Siong and Ouhua. All I cut losses and avoided blow-out.

Mun Siong - Extracting money out from IPO money
MTQ - Oil and Gas.
Ouhua - S-Chip. Enough said.

As for 2019, OCBC will be a hold for me. Avoided a blow by Design Studio in 2018.  JD exposure is small so not much meat left and I don't think it will zero out.


Merry Christmas

Cory
2018-1222