Sep 1, 2018

Cory Diary : HDB Logics

Once I did a rough compounded computation of my parent HDB apartment if they were to sell it after interests payment. That's 5% compounded over 30 years excluding the saving from the occupancy. So to cut it short, HDB Singaporeans benefits significantly from it from financial standpoint. One of the best investment vehicle nation wide. Nevertheless is a social policy and there are restrictions. Regardless, the net benefit is much more else 80% would not have stayed in it. I have hear many opinions so far and Cory today is trying to decipher them.


1. What's the alternative ?
Most people have not much choice. HDB is affordable. Environment good. Personally HDB is an excellent choice and not out of no choice. I said that because this is from an angle that HDB is not an entitlement which Singaporeans think it has to be. In the real world, public housing is not given for most couples. In many countries they could only rent, buy expensive condo/apartments or cheaper old housing in the outskirts which are out of the way or of poor environment. In Taipei as I know, is the weak, disabled and real poor that has opportunity to rent public housing for a period only, and after that they are thrown back for another draw. You can't even own them.

2. Extended Lease ?
When we buy HDB, the contract clearly stated 99 years lease. Unlike Condo, HDB owner do not own the land underneath. So technically, we can't enblock and therefore works within the stricter guideline of HDB. The much more expensive Condo is on 99 years mainly as well. It would not make sense that Condo which is priced much higher are on same terms. The new HDB VERS scheme at 70 gives resident a choice to get out of it. But what is key is that people will start to put a more reasonable value on re-sale flat. It would have been better I feel if they could restrict aged HDB from young couple owning them. 

3. Legacy
HDB is a social housing program. That's mean we need to ensure continue supply of land and housing. If there is residue value after the owner pass on, good ! Else the property should return to the state for recycle. The last thing we want is for the rich children to hang on to it detrimental to the poor as the rich (sorry. I am not against rich. I hope to see more deserving ones) are in much better position to benefits from it. By having it recycled, we re-distribute the land with new housing as a baseline for everyone and that's mean our future generations to come. 99 year lease is a very long time. Most would have change for another apartment anyway. My parents switched to their 3rd HDB apartment in the past 40 years. New apartment every time as is cheaper.

4. Ownership
Should one own them ? Personally every young couple should. I would go for the biggest new apartment available if I could afford. But if we are still confuse whether is good for them, you have a choice. There is no regulatory requirement to own one. Sorry being sarcastic on this one but the alternative could be the worst financial decision to make not to buy one meant for masses. And the last thing to do is to influence our friends and relatives not to have one. Of-course those in ivory tower, you can afford to skip this section.

5. Can't Sell
Some mentioned higher HDB re-sale price will not help much as the replacement flat for similar conditions will be smaller in size. That's true but I can accept it for newer flat. I could have the options to downgrade to smaller apartment, rent out the apartment or room and help my expenses. Those who do well could also sell/rent it and stay in their Condo and that would be ideal for me. I know some will do it reverse and it works for them.

6. Future is not given
Some say we will not see similar gains from HDB in the future. I would say what's our alternatives and is it still attractive? And again I have a choice. Cannot predict the future but I have a stake to make it better. And hopefully logic minds prevail to keep the game going.


Cory
2018-0901

Aug 19, 2018

Cory Diary : Managing Risk and Goal update 2018-0819

Every investment has risk. In a theoretical situation if we lose a portion of our money into a few risky bonds or shares, we just need one to fail and there are good chance we will retard our financial freedom by years. If we could lose a large portion, then it maybe better not to do anything as this could severely impact our financial situation. Why ?

Currently Singapore Saving Bond is about 2.4% long term guaranteed for 100k limit, Bank deposits range 1% and CPF about 2.6% - 5% for now with specific restriction and benefit applies. Depending on investment size, combination of it may apply. But I could see that for relatively safe returns are about 3% for retirement size fund. This return is not enough for retirement and could only supplement in my opinion. Why ?

For a million dollar investment size that's about $30k annually or about $2.5k monthly excluding inflation. This may not fit my lifestyle as I feel there is no point in surviving on basic or bare minimum. And for a family, this may not be ideal as this could reduce options in what we can do with life. 

So I decided to come out with 3 scenarios below and conclude what I need. Do note that while doing this exercise, 0.5% difference matters.

Scenario #1: $1M capital, Expense $2,500, 3% returns, 2% Inflation and Capital draw down
Allowance of $2,500 with 2% increment annually. At Age 48, this method will last me for 42 years. And my capital used up at  89 year of age. Is a draw down in investment capital. The problem with this is that I could survive beyond 89. Secondly, I still have to ensure 3% annual return on average. And will not be enough for a family. Neither is there enough buffer for investment fluctuation nor better lifestyle.

Scenario #2: $1M capital, Expense $4,000, 6.8% returns, 2.5% Inflation and Capital draw down
Allowance of $4,000 with 2.5% increment annually. At Age 48, this method will last me beyond 100 after with some bonus years to go. I have increase the expense by 0.5% for buffer. The problem with this is the ability to achieve 6.8% return on average with 100% confidence. Even then, the income is average for a small family. Is alright if the kids are grown up though.

Scenario #3: $1,350k capital, Expense $5,000, 5.2% returns, 2.5% Inflation and Capital draw down
Increased allowance of $5,000 with 2.5% increment annually. At Age 48, this method will last me till 98. I am happy with this variables.  More room for flexibility in income and expense variations. To be clear this scenario is retirement without saving needed.

Cory Analysis





To draw this further, I could ask for 1% growth in underlying portfolio.This will retard investment capital reduction. Now, for $1.35M investment size, returns can be lowered to 5.2%. The next question will be what investments will allow me to support the draw down and to secure $5K monthly expense ? One thing for sure, I do not need to take too high risk to achieve financial freedom but how to protect my investment to obtain desires.

Once the above Portfolio is achieved, every month salary is technically bonus to my financial freedom. Goal has become clearer. Obviously, real world do not work in straight forward manner so is good to have buffers and lengthen our retirement age.


Cheers

Cory
20180819



Aug 6, 2018

Cory Diary : Cruising Mode - Portfolio

It has been a month since my last update on portfolio performance. I am excited to report it because it comes a long way of recovery against STI. More like STI dancing around me. Why ?






At this point in time, for STI to catch up there will be few scenarios. One potential is DBS comes backup. With my greater exposure in STI Index plus having WFC, and OCBC. I would be happy it does.

The other is O&G recovery. I have no good feel of this industry. The only buy I would seriously consider is Keppel which is in one of my potential list. 

Thirdly, I screw up. 24 counters currently. Max 10%. Often I am tempted to move pass my own barrier. And there are't any local tech stocks. ops.


Cory
20180806