May 12, 2018

Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross

The banking strength in 2017 and 2018 have skewed the stock market quite significantly. But just to get on-board them midway (assuming) is not easy at current high price. The only consolation I have is STI Index so far which capture a fair bit of the banking actions.With reasonable amount I decide to plunge into OCBC which has recently dipped due to "poor" result. Hopefully I did not catch the tailwind (correction: end of ) of the banking sector. I was proved wrong twice during the first 4 months of the year when STI Index charge ahead against my personal returns every time the performance gap narrowed (see below).


Chart: The 2 area marked red circle almost crossed but it didn't. Both time thanks to the Banks. Hence, my search for Golden Cross goal in 2018.

Another counter is Wells Fargo making its way as the 2nd US stock listed in my tracked portfolio. Together with OCBC, makes up 4% of my tracked portfolio now. Facebook and Wells Fargo are not existing US stocks. They are bought recently and has been in positive territory since with 15% and 2% gains respectively. A good start and get to enjoy the larger movements in US Markets. However, I am pretty aware it can be the reverse too.

In the first 4 months of the year I have been playing hit and run on some of the smaller stocks. Design Studio, QAF, Neratel and Singapore O&G specifically. They all have one thing in common which have poorer results. Sizing and cut loss are done pretty quick to mitigate impacts. One thing I found out about myself is that for this year my numb mode is around 2% investment size for such counters. And this will probably be the my guidance ahead.

On the Reits front for Q1, on average probably break even as dividends cover their capital loss.
This sector enjoyed good run last year and so is better for them to take a break and stay flat this year. Is no fun to see them running too far ahead and then collapsed from exhaustion. I would like to see better NAV before they take the next leap as they could run ahead of fundamental in the quest for higher dpu. And that means higher property price.



Cory
20180512



May 7, 2018

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180507

This year is flat. Hovering around 1% gain currently which is still below STI Index. Strategy wise I am not changing much. Our Banks valuation are rich so is tough for me to enter to close the gap. Few trades I did worth thinking more.


Singtel

Reduced further with the poor results of associates as I need to manage the risk of over-exposure. And with the coming of TPG, the battle could be tougher. Regional wide telco margin pressure will be a new shift. The main impact is my 2018 dividend. So I hope to come up something to compensate.

Frasers Cpt Tr

Decided to come back on this counter after making the mistake of selling it earlier. One thing I learned is what a strong sponsor can do to support the dpu. Anyway, kick-start with a small position as is my believe that Malls are here to stay and the stability of their earning power is reasonable.

Frasers L&I Tr

Reduced further as the main reason to invest is no longer there. Sizable gearing increase without sufficient DPU compensation in the Euro Acquisition seems not so good a deal. We could argue is good for currency diversification but that itself is a weakness of the reit inability to overcome through internal earning.


Cory

20180507







Apr 23, 2018

Cory Diary : US Stock injection into SG Portfolio Tracker

I tend to keep my US stocks low profile. There are few personal reasons. Decided to do a first this time. Reason being my portfolio should have a better diversification tracking in management considering bulk of my shares are in SG Trust/Reits, Index and SG Bonds/PS.



Will be selective at first. Injected Facebook into my tracked holding and slowly expand if I am happy with the move. The complexity is they are traded in USD. So currency movement do affects my overall returns and risks. 

One logic to consider is the exchange rate. My consideration is how I can compute them on paper appropriately into Singapore dollars when they stay in USD cash account. This means that if USD is to depreciate 10% within a year, my open US stock and cash will have -10% fluctuation in returns. As for closed US stock, if their cash is stays in USD cash, their real profit will have to be adjusted.  I do not believe in paper loss.

Tracking Method consideration
  1. US Buy/Sell trade price.
  2. S$ translated Buy/Sell value will be dynamically updated.
  3. S$ Profit/Loss will be dynamically updated for open trades.
  4. Profit/Loss will be dynamically updated in S$ for closed trades unless I have them converted back to S$ then it will be locked.
  5. Available US$ cash will not be tracked. Neither will exchange cost for simplicity.
Hope this new chapter of my investment portfolio management proves wise and provide better excitement to my listless SG stocks. I am excited !


Cory
20180422