Jul 26, 2016

Cory Diary : Cutting Loss in Stock Market


Need to ask myself DEEPLY. Especially after cbox sessions this days ....


When cutting loss, do I based on fundamental of the stock to decide, wait for good price that can hit or the price we enter ?
Do we logically think Market will react to push up the price for us to sell or it works in a mysterious way that it will always fluctuate to our buy price for us to sell ?

When have lots of cash, no cut loss. Use the money in the bank to buy more in new investment.
Are there direct connection between cutting loss and how much money in the bank ?

Switching Horse better or Cut loss better ?
Some people like gambling addict. Cannot cut one till they chop fingers.
Macro factor, switch horse also die. Bet both horses, die too.
I think when to switch matters. When to change animal matters too (Market segment). Right ?

Is my stock a good horse ?
Money is hard earn, don't know what to do, cash first then talk. Want to freeze like I did in 2008, can too but make sure we ride good horse. Dividend players sure like this and buy more. Got guts bo ?

Need Maths meh ?

War Memorials
Koda
Mun siong
MTQ
Ouhua

Cory
20160726

Jul 24, 2016

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Mid Year 2016

Share investment is Passive as I do not need to run the business behind each stock. I am not answerable for their business. Therefore the amount of time spend researching on the stock is relatively minimal compared to typical worker effort.

Many people have different kind of definitions. Mine can change overtime ! I do not feel like pricking the logic today. Instead of challenging views and web definitions, maybe is better instead to explain the inner voice on what we really want. Do we need an alternative income that can boost one current salary with minimal effort and in the process supplement retirement needs. Is that what's matter ?

XIRR Performance

There are 4 scores because i feel it matters. The first is how much am I able to grow my invested returns over the years. The second is for this year performance.

The third is stripped of PS and Bond to see how I perform in the stock market. This are further measured based on 2 different dates, 30 Dec'16 and 23 July'16. The later has higher score assuming I sell everything on 23 July'16. The other is on 30 Dec'16 which extend my investment period by another 5 months.












All year portfolio returns 6.7%. Every $100 invested, returns is $6.70 compounded. Quite hard to move this XIRR needle as the overall score has a damping effect by Bonds and Preference Shares. Unfortunately there is no easy solution.

Equity 2016 returns is 9.7% and 15% based on XIRR year end measure and this week performance respectively. Immediate plan is to shift my non-core Equity to more fixed returns by year end.


Outlook to watch

1. Oil Price
2. SG Property Measures
3. China and Indonesia Debts
4. SG Telco Markets
5. Trump Presidential Campaign
6. RMB Weakening

I do not think Brexit worth a spot currently as it takes a long time to unfold. Added Trump because I feel Trump strength and impact to global has been underestimated despite all the hooha. I think can be as real as "Hitler" in action just not in brutality. RMB weakening is beginning to show and the impact is yet fully absorbed. Spratly islands is just a diversion currently.


Cory
20160723


Jul 23, 2016

Cory Diary : Experience in New Private Apartment enquiries

Like to record my experience on my property enquiries on a new private apartment. Using $1M amount as a reference calculation on the loan and fees needed. Recorded to the best of my memory re-collection using one hour of my morning time today to type. Hopefully no error in my understanding and re-collection.



Property Agent
An agent Trust Worthiness is important. Diligent and supportive are key criteria. Willingness for long term relationship will indicate his character clearly. Getting the right person is the first step in my property search. He is also the key person i ask about home procedures, lead time and industry practises.

In Principle Loan
Getting support from the bank on how much I can borrow and criteria to meet are important especially for those who are based oversea. We do not want last minute surprise risking the initial 5% deposit of the property value if we decide not to proceed with the deal. Provide as much information as possible for correct assessment by the bank.

Paper Work
Each bank may have slightly different expectation that I need to provide. Need to get ready and available on the moment notice. Talk to the bank. Credit Card statements, Salary Statements, Employment and Income Proof etc.

Booking
Ideally we like to be present to preview, ask questions, sign and handover our cheque for the home we want to buy in the show room. However you can ask someone else to sign for your intention if you are not available and trust their advice. There is a 5% booking fee that can be use to offset the initial 20% for first property. There maybe penalty on specific amount of the 5% if you fail to follow through on the purchase.

Initial Amount
I need to pay up 20% of purchase price for 1st property. Using $1M, that's $200 K in Cash and OA CPF. So if you find difficulty even at raising this amount maybe that property is not for you and need to adjust your expectation accordingly. Personally it should be well above my budget and above allocated emergency funds for housing.

Loan
Need to prepare to take a loan of $800 K. There is small sum of processing/valuation fee.
If you are oversea, time your returns to settle loan matter and lawyer. At least 3 weeks.
I included consideration on job security and emergency fund amount in my decision of the property value I would like buy. There is also age restriction on the tenor period i can borrow which will affects the monthly re-payment amount

Another key consideration is Interest rate. A Low interest rate is a double edge sword. You pay lesser for your borrowing cost but you may find yourself in over-leverage territory easily due to the low base of the rate. A small hike may impact your ability to continue to service your loan or affect your quality of life. Although the regulatory requirements and banks have built-in some safety measures we need to do our sum.

Personally to me, low interest rate stability for the entire loan term is important as I may not want to re-finance, and need to meet a host of criteria again. So sudden jump in interest rate due to board rate mechanism will not work well for my case especially in low interest rate environment.

Declaration
I also need to do declaration on other loans such as car loan, housing loan, provided guarantee to someone, over draft and credit cards etc. You maybe surprise they can directly hit the amount you are allowed to borrow quite significantly. So be careful on this and be prepared for buffer. I have a well paid relative who have to borrow money from poor me because they mis-calculate the amount needed and need to tie over short-term cash flow problem.

Fees
In-addition to the 20% purchase price amount at minimum for those with first property, need to be prepared for the following

Booking Fee : 50 K. Get your cheque book ready. I am a little uncomfortable handing over blank cheque to the developer to signal our intention to purchase. Is done on-site and widely practised afaik. Authority should prohibit this practise with strong penalty against developers. There is room for issues and also put buyers at a disadvantage in pricing of development. I hope someone can bring this up to appropriate authority as it does not make logical sense.

Lawyer Fee : 2.2 K. Their service is worthy. Make sure the firm is in your bank approve shortlist.

Stamp Duties : 29 K. May varies with individual condition. So check up with your agent and lawyer.


Cory
20160723

Jul 20, 2016

Cory Diary : Selling a Dream





A Dream is Mathematically Insane. Practically Impossible. Is Basically Irrational.

Toto Strike assumes $1 M. Someone drawing 100 K annual income get 1 Toto strike every 10 years surely. Those drawing 250 K annual salary will reduce to 4 years. Can strike Toto 10 times in 40 years !

Want to get out of rat race ? Work hard and Smart. Study hard if you can. Save and Invest I like. Marry up also can. Will make it easier. Is not sure win but the path to success is there.

Want to vote for a dream because it is so attractive, addictive and memorising and hopes. A chance for the few. We need to realise. Is the gambling in us. The laziness in us. The wilfulness in us. The greediness in us.


Beware of people who sell you a Dream. Keep Dreaming.

Cory
20160720