Cory Diary : Frasers Centrepoint Trust 3Q16

3Q16 Results Highlights

The main theme is North Point on-going AEI. Not to be mistaken by the picture, 3/4 area from the right is the up coming malls below North Park Residences ( Integrated Condo ) which will be attached to North Point of FCT in the left 1/4 area. The whole area will be the future north star of Singapore with integrated facilities such as library, community centre, mrt, bus interchange ground, garden, condo with lots of pools, Cinema, Food courts, malls and more malls. Hospital and schools nearby and a bridge connected to the hinterland.

Financial performance

• 3Q16 DPU of 3.04 cents, up 0.1% year-on-year (3Q15 DPU: 3.036 cents)

Some pressure to maintain the continue DPU growth or same (0.1% up) especially from the statement that 3Q16 distribution to unitholders includes $2.1m from cash retained in the previous quarters. It would have been negative per the Net Property Income of $31.2 million, 5.1% lower year-on-year which translate to annualised 5.3% yield instead of 5.7%.

North Point AEI reduced income by $1.74 M. Cushioned by rental increase specifically Causeway point 9.x% rental revision which is nothing to shout about considering we are comparing to average rental 3 years ago. Looks to me Phase 1 upgrading has much more impact than Phase 2 so FY2017 quarter reports should expects to be better. One more quarter of AEI bottom i suppose.

• Net Asset Value per Unit of $1.90 as at 30 June 2016 (31 March 2016: $1.91)
Share price last $2.12. Book Value is 1.11.

• Gearing level at 28.5% as at 30 June 2016 (31 March 2016: 28.3%)
Which i kind of like it.

Moving forward, I would rate high chance of interest rate hike soon with DOW breaking 18 K level clearly this week which may affects borrowing cost as currently FCT interests is just 2.259%. Do note large lease expiry in FY2017 and FY2018 so retail and sg economy will matters then.


Cory
20160716

Cory Diary : Equity Dividends 2016 Q2

Still in the atmosphere of Brexit, market is roaring back. So much on the fallout !At the same time Telco has a good run with talks on the 4th Telco viability. Seems like everyone has forgotten about the slow growth of major economies. True to my prediction, it is exciting time !

(updated for privacy) 

Year to date (Q2 '16) (updated for privacy) .  There will be challenge beating (updated for privacy) in 2015 due to I have taken profits on a number of counters and with more to come if the market continues to pick up.

 I have done some mitigation by re-balancing some of the returns to fixed instruments. And am now exploring for other opportunities on the remaining cash. New risk will be Indonesia and deeper risk will be China.

Cory

20160712

Cory Diary : Reading UOB Bank First Quarter 2016

UOB Stock Price 8th July '16 : $18.15 since the low of $16.81 early this year and high of $25 last year. That's +7.4% from bottom and -25% respectively from top. That's a wide range of pricing so what's are the fundamental change during this period ?


UOB First Quarter 2016

Let start with loans and operating performance by Country information. What I find interesting is Greater China information which records S$28 M profit reduction. Indonesia registers strong profit growth which maybe at a huge price which i will come later.

Gross Loans

Operating Profits

Non-Performing Loans (NPL) 1.4%
Past quarters increased from 1.2% to 1.4%. Percentage increase 16.7%. Greater China has a reduction from $218 M to $158 M. Indonesia has significant disproportionate amount of S$564 M accounting for 20% of NPLs. This raise the question of how well Indonesia is performing.

Exposure of Asset
5.9% Greater China, S$19.5 B of which half in RMB. There are $15.9 B Customer deposits in Greater China. Profit $69M (6.4%). Unable to locate clarity on RMB exposure but with local deposits there will be natural hedge against currency fluctuation which is critical.

4% Oil and Gas and 3% Other Commodities

NAV $18.22
BV using share price $18.15 will be 0.996. Not expensive.

Loan to Deposits Ratio
LDR using net loan over deposits has comes down from 81%-84% to 80.7%. This is on the back of increasing loans. Lot's of cash in the system.

EPS
$1.84 annualised. That's roughly 10.1%. PE 9.8.

Dividends
Regular Dividends assuming 70-75 cts (Yield 3.85% ~ 4.13%,  Shares 1,607,291,000) that will be at least $1.125 B annual distribution. 1Q16 earning alone is $766M. With the payout ratio less than 50% of earning, Capital Growth will be strong plus factor. 5% growth translate to $0.90 potential capital gains annually.

Conclusion
Overall is still a healthy and profitable business even though there is a a little slow down. One thing to know is Indonesia. Will UOB throws more into it. Whats up that we don't know about ?

By the way, UOB first half 28th July'16 report coming up.


Cory
20160709