Cory Diary : Portfolio Nov 25 Returns

Throughout the year, there has been quite a bit of churn. Looking at the fee costs, they are roughly split 50–50 between the SGX and US markets. The latter is much more expensive due to the POEMS Cash Management Account. It was not supposed to involve much trading, but it ended up doing so this year. If they do not lower their fees soon, I may close this account and move to another broker. It feels like they have been “taking advantage” of long-time customer inertia—my fault for procrastinating!

On the flip side, some major portfolio moves in the SGX market were justified and drove significantly higher returns. A good example is cutting losses on MIT earlier this year. This counter performed well in the past and helped the portfolio stay defensive, but in my view, their data centre strategy has been poorly thought out in the current AI environment. They also do not give me confidence in their urgency or expertise in managing those assets. So when a rebound came, I cut my position sharply without waiting for a breakeven P/L.

We applied a similar reduction to Ascendas, but instead of waiting for a rebound spike, we exited in stages and rotated into banks. This turned out to be the right move. By the time the staged reduction completed, Ascendas contributed a small positive return, while the banking sector delivered significantly larger gains. I’m glad we exited these two major blue-chip REITs safely. Both were sizable holdings, and although they increased transaction costs, the rebalancing was necessary.

On the US side, costs are somewhat offset by gains from our positions. However, volatility remains high, and if there were a multi-day sell-down, we could easily slip into the red. The allocation here is necessary, but we are keeping it small. We can’t ignore growth entirely—we cannot rely solely on the bank segment.

With one more month to go before the year ends, the portfolio performance is as follows:

From what I’ve heard, there is currently a 77% probability that the US market will end the year higher. So I’m crossing my fingers for a new record profit. If that doesn’t materialise, I may reduce the US allocation slightly to build up a war chest. The portfolio has reached an inflection point, and I would prefer not to meddle too much if conditions allow.

Cory Diary

2025-11-29

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : How to DIY my Own Investments

Why I Wrote This

This article began after an old friend messaged me yesterday. A bank had approached him with a Structured Investment Product (SIP) requiring a minimum investment of 200k. Like me, he retired early. Unlike me, he has substantially more wealth. Yet from the way he described the offer, it was clear he hasn’t done much planning for his retirement investments.

He told me the SIP was “capital guaranteed” and involved a complex structure that would generate monthly returns through the bank’s stock market activities. Both of us were puzzled how the bank could profit from such a product.

My Immediate Thoughts

Common sense tells me: no bank can truly guarantee your capital, not even for a single day.

So there must be a misunderstanding somewhere. And obviously, if it sounds too good to be true, there’s a catch.

My first reaction was:

Why even play this game with the bank?

If you want to invest, invest properly. Avoid jargon, complex structures, derivatives, “monthly stable returns,” and all that nonsense—especially if you don’t even know how to buy a stock yourself.

So I decided to write down what I would do if I were starting fresh as a new investor with a large retirement sum. This is not financial advice, but a personal sharing of what I think is reasonable.

First: What to Avoid

Before anything else, avoid these pitfalls:

Do not invest in business ventures.

Do not gamble.

Do not touch Structured Products.

Buy adequate insurance (hospitalization, annuity, travel) if you did not secure these earlier in your career.

Treat every request to remit or transfer money as a potential scam.

For term insurance or critical illness at this age: be extremely cautious. Premiums are high and can burn a hole in your retirement funds.

My Suggested Starting Steps

1. Secure a Base: SSB

Allocate the first 200k into Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB).

This assumes you have far more in retirement funds. SSB gives flexibility, safety, and liquidity at your fingertips through online banking.

2. Ensure CPF Reaches FRS

If your CPF Retirement Account has not reached the Full Retirement Sum (FRS), do a top-up.

3. Consider Going Up to ERS

Depending on your retirement size and needs, you can top up from FRS to ERS.

This guarantees a solid monthly payout from age 65 with practically no risk.

4. Park Some Money in T-Bills

Rates are low now, so treat T-Bills mainly as a parking lot for future deployment.

Good to go through the process and learn it. Done online via your bank.

5. Use Fixed Deposits or CPF OA

Put a portion into fixed deposits. Again, do it online.

Alternatively, transfer more into CPF OA at 2.5% via VC3AC, which also tops up the other CPF accounts.

6. Max Out CPF MA

If you still have excess cash, maximize your CPF Medisave Account (MA).

7. Gradual Deployment Into Equities

Whatever remains will depend on your portfolio size.

I would then slowly allocate into equities over several years to average out market cycles.

If there is a major crash, your cash becomes king—you can deploy quickly at great valuations.

If the market rises while you invest, you’re averaging up, creating a profit buffer. Personally, I prefer that as it gives me more mental comfort. Averaging down is far more stressful.

For new investors, start with broad ETFs:

STI ETF

S&P 500 ETF

Sector or thematic ETFs should be left to more experienced investors.

Final Thoughts

This is the “quick and dirty” outline of what I would do if I were starting with a large retirement sum today.

What do you think?

Cory Diary

2025-11-26

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Dividend Updates

Dividend Hits New Record

With most of the major dividends now ex-dividend, this is a good time to tally how the portfolio is performing. Year-on-year, we are looking at a strong 30% increase in dividends, driven mainly by sustained growth from the banks. Part of this year's spike is due to timing effects—some counters were bought just before ex-dividend dates, while others were sold only after collecting dividends.

Looking ahead, the macro environment for REITs is expected to improve in 2026, which could translate into higher distributions. On the banking side, DBS is working toward a 6-cent quarterly dividend increase, although the total portfolio dividend amount may remain flat in 2026. 

Nevertheless, the portfolio has finally broken out of the flat dividend trend that persisted over the past three years. Previously, the priority was portfolio growth through capital gains, which kept dividend increases modest. 2025 is shaping up to be a special year: barring any black-swan events or severe macro shocks, we may enjoy both higher dividends and stronger portfolio growth compared with recent years.

Below is the breakdown of where the dividends came from. Please note roughly 50% of the stocks listed are no longer in the portfolio, as we conducted a major shake-up throughout the year.

Strategy

The strategy is to reduce the volatility of the dividends segment of the portfolio for 2026. This means REITs like UK REIT, which face large forex and interest rate risks, are removed. Some are too small to track, like STI ETF, iREIT, Boustead Projects, MIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and a few others. A few were trading counters that happened to go ex-dividend, like Keppel, UOB, BABA, and CICT.

US Treasuries were tested but found not worthwhile. On the banking side, we have reduced holdings to only DBS. Some dividends came from US growth stocks, which contribute only minute amounts. Regarding portfolio dividend focus, there is a significant increase in Netlink BNB Trust. We are also trying out new counters like Comfortdelgro, Cent Accom Reit, and Alpha Integrated Reit (Sabana Reit).

Cory Diary

2025-11-16

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Three Things You Must Avoid If You Want to Be Wealthy

1. Not Managing Your Own Money

When I was young, I wasn’t strong academically, nor did I show any leadership qualities.

Morally, going down the wrong path was never an option. So if I wanted to survive and succeed in this world, I had to learn how to manage my own finances.

To me, this advice is obvious — you must take control of your money. That includes managing your savings accounts, bill payments, monthly cash flow, and spending habits. Understanding where your money goes gives you control over your future.

That’s why I don’t trust “black-box” investments like Unit Trusts, Hedge Funds, Investment-Linked Policies (Insurance), or Private Investments. This isn’t to say that all of them are bad or unreliable — but I prefer not to put myself in a position where I can’t fully understand, manage, or monitor what’s happening to my money.

2. Listening to Stock Tips or Taking Advice from Bosses Whose Company Stocks Have Fallen

For most people, running a business isn’t our cup of tea — many lose both their money and valuable time. Investing in stocks is a more sensible path, while the other extreme — keeping everything in fixed deposits — almost guarantees that you won’t have enough for early retirement or old-age needs.

Personally, I’ve rarely had the chance to meet top executives, but even if I did, I wouldn’t take stock tips blindly. It’s simply not in my nature.

I prefer to do my own homework, dig around, and understand what I’m investing in. It amazes me how someone can save up US$100,000 over ten years, only to throw it into an investment within days without thinking. It just doesn’t make sense — perhaps they simply feel rich for a moment.

3. Going All In

This usually applies to younger investors who haven’t built enough savings yet. They tend to go all in on a single stock or asset.

Sure, they might get it right many times — but it only takes one mistake to lose everything. The recent crypto crash is a perfect example: some people leveraged 10x and ended up facing forced liquidation.

Final Thoughts

Wealth isn’t built overnight. It’s built through discipline, awareness, and control.

By managing your own money, ignoring blind tips, and avoiding reckless “all-in” bets, you give yourself the best chance to stay wealthy — not just get lucky once.

Cory Diary

2025-11-03

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Family Expenses - Oct'25 Updated

Yesterday marked the final day that Rui will attend the nanny's care. This change will modestly reduce our overall costs while freeing up time previously spent transporting her back and forth in-between school and home.

A key clarification on our expense tracking: it excludes taxes and rental support. My assumption is that our income will comfortably cover these items, making them unlikely to become issues. With the primary objective for the retirement phase, our focus remains squarely on daily family essentials. This consistent methodology applies across all tracked expenses.

On a positive note, our lagging 12-month expenses continue to trend downward, reflecting ongoing efficiencies. See above.

That said, the average of the most recent five months shows an uptick. This indicates that short-term expenses may stabilize or begin to fluctuate unless additional adjustments are made.

Next Step, to monitor the change implication, if any.

Cory Diary

2025-11-1

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Portfolio updates

In summary getting more defensive but also retain some opportunity for growth. Hits 18.7% XIRR YTD. Portfolio Value has increase by roughly 30% YTD. This is quite significant imo. 

Did quite an amount of re-balance to Non-Bank/Non Reit Segment in SGX. So far P/L wise nothing much to shout about except 2026 Ready ... . The key gains of the portfolio still Bank, Reit and US Big Tech in this order. The different segment balance out the random returns. In the year, continues to move up overall.

The challenge today is how to ensure we secure our gains YTD while allowing room for further improvements. There are still some work to do and alot of Fomo going-on which I am trying to contain at the same time.

A surprise in the portfolio is Gold which has risen quite an amount for something that don't give dividend or return. 20% gain for a fomo position this year starting April. I probably take a pause on expanding allocation on the possibility of some re-tracing.

On the bank side, the guess is that DBS will have opportunity though limited but OCBC continues to be impacted more in NIM. Hence, a sizeable reduction in OCBC. Nevertheless, long term they are great asset to hold for my portfolio.

Lastly, the new sparkle in the portfolio is AMD which joins the rank of US stocks. My take is Nvidia valuation is cheap but the earning may not hold up if AMD able to eat their pie and it appears the market is shaping to it. Like my trust in previous DBS CEO, I could say the same for Lisa Su of AMD. As I am reluctant to channel new fresh fund into the US Market, some re-balance is done. So far my track record aren't that great though on this ...

Cory Diary

2025-10-26

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Net Worth Update

Net Worth

As I just hit 55, CPF FRS is Max. Currently in the process to increasing beyond from idle cash in small step. The amount into ERS is dependent on idle fund availability that I can safely inject as it will be locked for 10 years. Another alternative which I may use is VC3AC. The idea is to ensure some minimum base of monthly income at 65. So alternative is not in the card. 

The big gap in the chart that i deliberately left out is the free cash portion. This doesn't mean I don't care. Getting triple or double returns in equity investment is meaningless if the equity allocation is small relative to your Net Worth. So we need to see things in perspective when someone reported 500% stocks gains when the cost amount is like one month of his salary as an extreme example. What make it even worst is over a decade and not a year. Therefore, Net Worth Tracking will give us a better picture in overall.

So 2 things to remember. Scale and Time.

Cory Diary

2025-10-12

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Family Expenses update

Have been watching more carefully on transportation expenses. In-addition, food take-aways continue to be managed down. On my partner side which i always assume 15% of what i computed for family expenses are not added. Feel maybe 20% additional is better figure as she spend more on "Luxury" to save time.

Overall, the expense continues to trend down. The average of 5 of trailing 12 months expenses are now around $115k for my family. As mentioned i did not add her expenses and feel is ok since she is still working. 

Short note !

Cory Diary

2025-10-05

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Performance Update

Quick update on portfolio performance YTD so far. 

Gold rise is an interesting surprise because it has seen some correction when I bought some on FOMO in last high. China/Russia and probably quite a few countries knew there are not much options against USD, and Gold is one of them that can help mitigate. So my thought process is long term hold even if there is deep correction so the allocation is sized to able to hold. At the same time Gold can be use to mitigate against volatile foreign currencies.

There are two ways I have invested Gold. One is through Gold saving account which is not tracked in equity portfolio, and another through Gold ETF (SGD) which is. SGD denominated means we can avoid the need to pay for currency exchange. Currently, no plan for physical gold.

The big question I have for my portfolio is where do we go from here ? Something I need to think about in coming days,

Cory Diary

2025-0922

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Mistake in Computing Cash Flow for Property

Just realized I made a mistake in computing my cash flow. The mistake is big enough to deserve a mention in today’s post. So, what is it? Property loans. There are two portions of a property loan: interest and principal repayment.

I had correctly computed my rental income and deducted all the estimated expenses — income tax, property tax, agent fees, interest cost, and maintenance cost. What was left became my net return from the property, and I treated that as my cash flow. It seemed logically straightforward.

But here’s where I went wrong: the principal repayment also reduces my cash, even though it builds equity that still belongs to me. From a cash flow perspective, this means my property can be in negative cash flow if the loan is large enough for a reduced tenor.

📊 Waterfall Chart Plan Simulation below

So why I keep thinking it doesn't affects and a positive. Reason being there is is buffer allocated for years. Personal bias. An example of Asset Rich but Cash Poor.

Cory Diary

2025-0921

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Reits Experience

I have been investing in REITs for more than a decade and thought it would be a good time to pen down my personal thoughts.

Generally speaking, people who invest in REITs need to understand the nature of REITs and what they truly want. For me, it is cash flow and stability. Capital gain is a bonus and should not be the primary focus but a supplementary factor. Yields typically will not be very high, but they should not be too low either. REITs are usually priced according to risk, and risk is real. If we misunderstand this, then we will learn from Mr. Market’s temperament. There are many Reits which I personally feel is not of investment materials.

“This serene landscape represents the calm, steady growth and stability that wise REIT investing aims to achieve—focused on reliable cash flow and long-term value rather than quick gains.”

There are a few things to watch in REITs:

Landlord collecting rent – DPU (Distribution Per Unit) and yield.

If the yield is too high, something may be wrong or there is a risk you are taking. If it is too low, are you investing in REITs mainly for capital gain?

Rights Issue

We cannot escape it. Embrace it and take advantage of it, but you don't have to subscribe if the risk or discount is not in your favor. Strong REITs typically perform well for decades with good DPU even after dilution.

DPU growth or stability

The plan is to look for something stable in DPU, and if the REIT is well managed, there will be some DPU growth.

Forex Volatility

The DPU yield is usually in the 4% to 6% range. Forex changes can be larger than that in a year and may wipe out your return in real terms. This is a risk one needs to consider.

Cost of funding

Since we look for stability, the goal is to have stable funding costs. Lower costs help improve DPU. Fixed loans and currency hedges help protect against volatility. We want both with optimal risk considerations.

It is quite rare to have huge capital gains from REITs, assuming all else is equal. The managers cannot perform magic to uplift the REIT to extraordinary levels. Good managers may improve performance and ensure good total returns. However, Mr. Market can have significant mood swings that allow us to buy low and sell high. These swings are not just 5% to 10% fluctuations, which may not be worth the time and risk of churning.

Personally, Rebalancing across different market instruments to ensure cash flow stability and growth at the portfolio level. This may not suits everyone. dyodd.

Cory Diary

2025-0905

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Cash Flow 2025-08

Have been cleaning up labels of the blog but I thought Cash Flow topic itself worth a label itself. The post gives a view on how well we managed our assets. A critical step that could help our financials.

A saving of 100k of 0.2% interest is only $200 if left idle whereas in fixed deposits of 3% is $3,000. That's 15 times return difference relatively in annual perspective.

Left is Asset, Right is Cash Flow resulted from it

Unless one go into private business which can be high risk, or property return in capital nature is significant which enlarge the asset base, the yield from our asset basically depends a lot from Equity which theoretically is a business as minority shareholders. The risk is much lesser. In dividend investing perspective, the cash flow from Equity out-size all the others asset class.

Another class of thought is to invest in equity for capital appreciation gains. In this line of thought, the cash flow if needed will have to come from sales of stock itself which probably needs to follow some draw down rules. US Market provides such sizeable gains in perspective but we run the risk of inheritance tax or market swing. Is also not truly a return of investment that can provide constant stream of income of invested capital into a business. Whether is sustainable or not from a business of reducing stake can affects one returns in the future due to uneven return from individual performance on a stock.

Since our plan for investment in US market is smaller for growth and not dividend, there won't be sales for cash flow. Instead when there is capital gain, it put some pressure on entire equity portfolio yield returns at this stage of the game. From the chart, the Equity portfolio still show remarkable outsize cash flow supports. If we are successful in growing our US portfolio, this may loop-side the chart on the asset base enlarged on the left, and negatively show lower proportion of Cash Flow from the Right Chart. Nevertheless, is a good thing to have definitely.

The Charts intent remains unchanged in the sense we still want to keep a look out for poor investment choices or risk management. In this update, I think we have reduced the saving account sufficiently into working capital and some buffers. Fixed Deposits are still sizeable which seems to hold their ground ok as necessary allocation for the time being.

SSB and T-Bills do not change much in absolute amount as net worth shrink or grow at this stage of retirement phase as we have already allocated what's need to be. There is no need to expand, or maybe even reduce if needed on T-bill side as one property loan get smaller over time. The net property segment provided needed diversification and income stability but any additional in this segment could reduce our future cash flow further.

Since yet 65, the CPF segment is a simulated figure. Will have to put some more thought around this segment of retirement support and adjust the numbers accordingly. To obscure the figure, insurance within this segment will also be looked into on future plan.

Cory Diary

2025-0823

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Mapping 2025 Segment Returns

Today a new interesting Chart to view portfolio diversification. As you can see below, the Equity portfolio has 4 main segments namely Banks, Reits, US Big Techs, and others.

Others as in the list currently in the portfolio. Do ignore the yield number in the table as is still in investigation stage.

As usual, the main driver of returns are the Banks. Macro play a good part of their profitability. The US Market which we have been trying to grow, has all the key positions in place except strong returns ... ... . This aren't surprising as they have rebounded mostly in year 2023 and 2024. There's some difficulty to grow through new funding quickly as we have missed the critical timing to add more.

The Reits in the portfolio are now mainly defensive play. Basically a hedge against macro turning bad but also securing some level of baseline dividends. This businesses are robust.

So this leave with the least allocation in Others category. Something we should develop imo but in-steps that we are comfortable with. The risks are much higher so ETF is one consideration however most ETFs have Bank or Reit inclusion. Something to further explore considering many popular stocks have already run-up.

Cory Diary

2025-0821

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Cory Diary : Inflation Driven Earnings

Inflation-Driven Earnings: What Do I Mean?

Companies with a strong moat can raise prices as needed to counter various pressures, such as inflation, rising utility costs, manpower expenses, tariffs, taxes, or increased demand for their services due to supply and demand dynamics. Other factors may also apply. The essence of this moat is the ability to maintain or grow earnings, even during challenging economic times.

Who Are These Companies?

Ability to "hum along with inflation" and maintain stable earnings, even in changing economic conditions.

Examples include CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), and Big Tech firms. These entities provide essential or lifestyle services. For instance, mall REITs like CICT and FCT can adjust rents in line with inflation, ensuring stable earnings. While their profits may not be exorbitant, they are reliable, as these companies are closely monitored for operational stability. Their performance often aligns with a country’s development and reflects its social standards. These REITs aren’t the cheapest options—HDB shops or alternative local competitors often provide lower-cost alternatives nearby. However, when economic conditions worsen, consumer traffic may shift to more affordable options.

Big Tech companies cater to modern lifestyle needs beyond what malls offer. They typically hold a strong global niche, making it difficult for local governments to regulate them unless, like China, a country is large enough to block them and develop domestic alternatives. Big Tech firms demonstrate robust and consistent earnings growth, often surpassing local banks’ performance by significant margins. Their growth and stability enable them to weather negative foreign exchange impacts over the long term.

Interestingly, local banks also benefit indirectly from high interest rates used to manage inflation. While recent rate reductions may slightly lower their profits, this isn’t necessarily negative. A healthy and profitable local economy supports their lending activities, which form the core of their earnings. When a business is highly profitable, a slight reduction in margins to ensure long-term sustainability can be a smart strategy. Thus, excluding banks from a portfolio simply because their returns drop by 5% to 6% may not be wise, especially when alternatives may not offer comparable overall stability and growth.

For now, I’ll focus on these three segments—mall REITs, Big Tech, and local banks here. Their earnings can rise with inflation, yet they remain resilient even in low-inflation environments. Are these “Goldilocks” investments? Regardless, the stock market is currently experiencing one of its most polarizing bull runs.

Cory Diary

2025-0816

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Performance Expectation

The Why

What started the article is when tripped in recent adventure into Centurion. The earning result was down obviously since YOY there is no earning spike from re-valuation. However, Operational wise there is marked increase in returns. You would thought this is bake into the market price but not exactly and it was down by 5% and returned back my gains on this counter. And this keeps me thinking on market sentiment and euphoria as new players aren't familiar with the stock started to drive the stock price higher.

Past Performance

For past years there have been constant seeking of stocks to focus on. On the process, we sometime fell and sometime portfolio strengthened. So far the portfolio has been working well for the past 3 years since year 2022.

Year 2025 is using end date 31st Dec 2025. So what this mean is if the value maintain till year end, 12.6% is what we will get. The 2 year and 3 Year compounded performance look great since last hit by year 2022 market down which is reflected in 5 Year compounded data.

Can the past few years performance be maintained ? That's not easy imo. So maybe is time to be more relax and less adventurous, and start holding the portfolio steady, and building up warchest for long term wealth.

Portfolio Numbers

and then we are back to portfolio management scenario building. Scenario 1 is what is current at 10k monthly expense. The Portfolio status Perpetual means divergence in another words Portfolio Value Growth > expenses inflation.

In scenario 2, we build in more buffer through higher inflation scenario, the portfolio valuation drops to able to sustain for 50 years with some drawdown. Still ok except we aren't sure the simulation has enough buffer for miscalculation or inheritance.

We build-on the portfolio scenario by increasing monthly expense to 11k which is the more realistic expenses to work on currently. Sametime increasing portfolio returns to 9.5%. This aren't fairytale numbers based on past 3 years performance. This is scenario 4.

The last Scenario 5, we continue to expand our expenses to 12k monthly and expects 11% annual returns. Portfolio can achieve divergence growth. What this tell me to lock-in further risk for the current portfolio which is achieving 14.9% compounded for past 3 years. Let's hold the ship steady instead.

When the market turns or mis-step, the portfolio can fall back to single digit growth if we aren't careful. While we cannot control macro environment, we can be less adventurous on looking things like alpha. 

A Centurion Experience to Share !

What's you think ?

Cory Diary

2025-0810

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Cory Diary : Bad Days

To start off, the portfolio was on XIRR 10.8% using 31 Dec 2025 End date about a week ago. Then we have a few news came in.

Mapletree Industrial Trust performs below expectation, this is despite the CEO gives a credible AGM which shareholders reacted positively. The only thing is that I do not think they have the DCs Hyperscale blood in them. Don't get me wrong, is still a very large and stable reit but long term assuming no macro tide, the reit seems on a long term slope. It still provide a strong stability to the portfolio but allocation wise we may need to tweet a little to prevent long term drag. Who knows she may perform surprise turnaround.

And then Fed decided to continue to delay the cut further. This make Trump angry. Personally, I am quite neutral. Fed mandate is 2% so we aren't there yet. There is stull some way to go. US economy is still strong and S&P500 still on the upper brink. Unemployment is not bad either. So he aren't wrong not to cut. BUT at this high rate, property loan is quite expensive. This will put a large dent on home owners and a cost on national debts and many SME businesses. 

I am not a fan that we should lower rate so as to pay investors lesser for treasury. This going to destroy the market mechanism. Strength of the USD should not be manipulated in a way to purposely lower investor returns who may vote with their pocket. It should be based on factors that are built-in to the system today which is inflation, employment and strength of the USD. Maybe more, I aren't Expert.

The decision has ramification on Singapore Reits. Another blow on recovery. And gain my decision to focus on Reits with moat that able to raise prices to combat cost of business.

Meta, Msft and Aapl report great results. Amazon too except there are other concerns. In net, US segment bring the portfolio value up another level. I like my peanut butter strategy on Big Techs because I do away with a lot of deep inside knowledge or industry to make investment decision. As long I hold long enough, they will ride through the waves. Well, this also mean market will find a reason for broad based sell down like yesterday for reason like employment number is not high enough. What a lousy reason but market has to find a reason to manage the recent run up.

Job Data

The Job Data is down significantly again give a wrong picture on how rates are to be managed. US data collection method needs to improve or maybe more integrity needed before the market totally ignore it in the future. Is better to have roughly good data than wild data which then got revised significantly months later. I would say they need a total revamp. Due to the revision, the US Market has been driven down now. I wonder what will Powell says now being data centric driven. Trump won't happy at all even though this help his cause for lower rate.

As of today XIRR 9.5%. The portfolio has more defensive position, lower bank allocation, higher big tech positions, more other category expansion, and some cash. Feeling ready for any crash or correction if it comes.

Interesting Time ! National Day Coming.

Cory Diary

2025-0804

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Net Worth update

Tariffs

Been more than a few months since I last post Net Worth. The current sentiment is Trump Tariffs are taking shape and it appears he has the last laugh. One by one countries bend to his negotiation teams. Unfortunately, I have yet hear news on Singapore side. My concern is the more we delay, the worst it gets as Trump will have a stronger hand the more countries conclude their deals. Sometimes bad deal is better than no deal. Will this be the case ? 1st Aug deadline running near.

Inflation

There aren't obvious inflation which in total opposite expectation of many Economists and Experts. So why they could not even measure up to a so called Clown President ? This is puzzling. Nevertheless, rate should be coming down but is not. I feel the more Fed worry, the worst it gets because it makes the dollar looks useless. Is clear Trump want a weaker dollar but this do not mean a weak dollar. And the higher yield we seen in treasury is likely because people is expecting it to be weaker therefore negating all the interests return.

Portfolio

As the meantime, we achieve ATHs in STI and S&P500. Is the most hatred recovery because it doesn't feel like one economically. Is running on the back of earlier inflation on the rate spike after-effect. What it means to all is that my net worth purchasing power has depreciated in entirety and the only one countering or mitigating it is my Equity Portfolio. And yes, the portfolio hitting ATH as well and I am not celebrating in the sense is more like a relieve. Again Saver who views money in absolute term is the biggest loser relatively because you are buying much lesser goods and services with same amount of money in just few years.

Net Worth

In absolute term, my Net Worth has moved up and run contrary to one who is in retirement and high expenses which is still being managed down. T-Bills have been coming down but appears there aren't good alternative unless I stack further up into the equity portfolio which is something I do not want to do when market keeps hitting ATHs.

What I have done is to take some profits and re-balance into defensive position to secure my current position in Equity side. At the same time looking for opportunity to increase my allocation in US Market by a few percentage more as I feel Big Techs earning power will shield me well or convince me to hold on even if there is correction. There are some cash in idle which will have 2 weeks window to decide where to go.

Property

On property investment front, I just concluded a rental contract with a higher value, This will help to improve my cash flow for year to come. The next thing to watch is my mortgage renewal. I have been enjoying low rate for years and if I have my chance the cost will not increase significantly. When I run through my numbers, after property tax, Income tax, maintenance cost, refurbishment cost and agent cost, the yield aren't that good as Equity dividend returns. However, in name of diversification, and the hope of capital gain.

No Chatgpt this time to help check my grammars and composition. Pardon me.

Cory Diary

2025-0726

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : S&P 500 Gains in 2025: Why Forex Matters

Why Your S&P 500 Investment in SGD Feels Less Rewarding Despite All-Time Highs in 2025

Introduction

If you invested 100,000 SGD in the S&P 500 at the start of 2025, you might expect a solid return by mid-year given the U.S. stock market’s strong performance and record highs. However, when you check your portfolio in Singapore dollars, the gains might feel surprisingly modest. Why is that?

This article unpacks how currency fluctuations can impact your investment returns and why, despite the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, your SGD-denominated returns may seem disheartening.

The S&P 500’s Strong Performance in 2025

The S&P 500, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has delivered a total return (including dividends) of approximately 7.18% year-to-date (YTD) as of early July 2025. This reflects solid price appreciation and dividend income, driven by strong corporate earnings and positive economic data.

For a USD-based investor, this is an attractive return in just over half a year.

The Forex Factor: SGD vs. USD

However, as a Singapore-based investor, you need to consider the currency exchange rate because the S&P 500 is traded in U.S. dollars.

At the start of 2025, 1 SGD was worth about 0.7572 USD.

By mid-July 2025, the SGD strengthened to around 0.7808 USD.

This means the Singapore dollar appreciated roughly 3.13% against the U.S. dollar during this period.

How Forex Affects Your Returns

When your SGD strengthens against USD, your USD investments are worth less when converted back to SGD — even if the USD investment itself has gained value.

To calculate your effective return in SGD:

Start with the S&P 500’s 7.18% USD return.

Adjust for the 3.13% appreciation of SGD against USD.

The net result is an approximate 3.9% YTD return in SGD terms.

So, your initial 100,000 SGD investment would have grown to about 103,900 SGD by mid-July 2025, less than the 107,180 SGD you might expect if you ignored forex.

Why Does This Matter?

Currency movements can significantly impact international investments. Even when markets perform well, a stronger home currency can reduce your returns when converted back.

For Singapore investors, the SGD’s appreciation against the USD in 2025 has offset nearly half of the S&P 500’s gains.

Conclusion

While the U.S. stock market has hit record highs and delivered solid returns in 2025, your SGD-denominated investment’s performance is tempered by currency effects. This highlights the importance of considering forex risk in global investing.

If you’re investing internationally, it’s wise to monitor currency trends or consider hedging strategies to protect your returns.

Cory Diary

2025-0714

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : How to use XIRR (Excel )

What is XIRR?

XIRR stands for **Extended Internal Rate of Return**. It is a financial function widely used to calculate the annualized return of a series of irregular cash flows over time. Unlike the regular IRR, which assumes all cash flows are spaced equally (like monthly or annually), XIRR handles actual dates for each cash flow — making it ideal for real-world scenarios such as investments with multiple deposits and withdrawals at different points in time.

Why is it useful?

XIRR gives investors and analysts a precise way to measure the true annualized performance of an investment when contributions and redemptions do not occur at regular intervals. For example, if you invest different amounts at different dates and withdraw parts of your investment later, XIRR calculates the single annual rate of return that equates your total inflows and outflows over time.

How is it used for single and multiple stocks?

When calculating the XIRR for a **single stock**, it is common and more intuitive to **extend the end date to the end of the calendar year**. This projects the unrealized value forward to provide a comparable annualized return figure for the full year, even if you haven’t sold the stock yet.

Similarly, for a **portfolio with multiple stocks**, you track all cash flows — buys, sells, dividends — with their actual dates, then extend the final balance to a common end date, usually the year-end. This gives you an annualized return for the entire portfolio that you can compare against benchmarks or other investments.

Strong for tracking multi-year performance

One of XIRR’s biggest strengths is its ability to **combine performance across multiple years** into a single **compound annual growth rate (CAGR)**. This means that even if you hold stocks for many years with varying purchases, dividends, or partial sales along the way, XIRR shows your true annualized return over the whole period, factoring in the exact timing of every cash flow. This makes it far more realistic than simply looking at average yearly returns.

Where is it used?

XIRR is commonly used in personal investing, portfolio performance tracking, private equity, venture capital, and fund management. It is a standard function in spreadsheet tools like Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, where you simply provide the actual cash flow dates and amounts to calculate your annualized return.

Example of a Single Stock

Even today is not last day 31st Dec 2025, when computing XIRR YTD, use 31st Dec 2025. In that way you will get return of more logical 1% instead of 5.3%.

Example of using Year End Date.

Cory Diary

2025-0713

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : A Portfolio Chat Turned Reflection

STI, Banks, and the Psychology of Profit: A Portfolio Chat Turned Reflection

Over the weekend, our Telegram chat lit up with reflections on the market's recent push toward the 4,000 mark — largely powered by non-banks — and the strategic return of banks to lead the charge. Some joked: “Is this the big boys’ plan? Push with non-banks first, then let banks take the wheel again?”

Behind the humor, a few truths emerged.

Banks: Bedrock of Stability

Banks remain the cornerstone of Singapore's market — net profit leaders and closely aligned with government policy. As one member put it, "Nothing will be allowed to rock them." Even amidst inflation and market jitters, they remain resilient — and attractively valued.

The Case for Regional Growth

One interesting idea floated: to really grow, SGX needs to integrate more deeply with other Southeast Asian exchanges — and allow more access to our listed giants from neighboring investors. The logic: We already have the region’s largest net income earners; let others buy in too.

Valuation, Rebalancing & Portfolio Philosophy

As portfolios hit all-time highs (ATH), some members talked about trimming exposure. One shared being over 50% allocated to DBS — not out of fear, but for balance and mental peace. “You wait until stress to rebalance? Too late liao.”

The group revisited the ever-relevant tension between max returns and quality of life. “If I wanted max returns, I wouldn’t have retired early,” said another. “Family, siblings, parents — then me.”

Rebalancing wasn’t about fear. It was about discipline and maintaining the ability to act when others panic. Or as someone quoted Buffett: “Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”

Volatility: Friend or Foe?

We all love our winners. But what happens when markets fall 30–50% like during the GFC? Even Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dropped 50% — three times. It’s not just about knowing, it’s about surviving. Having the mental stamina to click “Buy” when others are fleeing.

As one put it:

“Everyone can have education, knowledge, and experience. But without mental strength, you won’t click the button.”

Closing Thought: Leave Some on the Table

Taking profit isn’t weakness — it’s strategic. You leave some shares for others to buy. Let the stock rise further. After all, "Elon never shared much of his profits, so he gets a lot of green eyes. Google, Microsoft, Meta — their founders hold much less now."

Let others win too. It keeps the market moving forward.

Cory Diary

2025-0707

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.