Cory Diary : Strategy for 2025

My hope is to have US Portfolio build up with some profit buffers before year ended and as synergy with my local income stocks. There is no targeted size for the US segment just that the stocks needed to be deployed and then allocation build or adjust in Year 2025. There is a dependency on how the macro market affects my available funds and stability of local portfolio to allow me to grow US Market fruitfully. Recent Yen Carry Trade Crisis nearly de-rail the plan this few weeks. However, the fast recovery put the invested fund into life time new investment high today. On a side note, USD weakened a few percentage points for the period which mean fund exchanged is down even before we trade in SGD term.

STI P/L YTD excludes dividend

With 4 months to go before the year ended, an impending rate cut, chances are we may see another ride up. This will put the portfolio in good footing in Year 2025 starts. Few things to watch is the over-exposure in local banks which i decided to reduce some of my trading positions for cash. Roughly 10% reduced. Is still quite sizeable and there is a small hit on final year record dividend hope as we are getting 5.8% ~ 6% yield from banks currently. There are no strong Reits of that range that i could deploy to mitigate the hit that I am willing to allocate increase size.

Currently, RMB is trading at low against Sing Dollar. There are stocks over there in HK that I can get greater than 7% yield with the on-going housing crisis and tension with US. One of such stock is Ping-An Insurance which just announced good result. This will be classic play opportunity. After second thought, decided not to proceed for now due to lack of familiarity. So my initials to enter Chinese market ends before it starts. With my last counter MLT has sufficient Chinese exposure ending badly which I cut quickly, most other counters have small exposure if any. China is becoming uninvestible.

Larger Cash buffer is not a bad option as market may flip with whim like what we see with recent Yen Crisis. This also tell me the shakiness or fragility of the financial system or economy which requires Fed to stabilise with cutting rate. Maybe a toppish sympton ? Maybe unchartered terriory ? whatever the case, emotionally we need to be ready. And the best way is to ensure our portoflio are.

In Summary,

Current

1. Complete build a portfolio of US Stocks

2. Risk-Adjust Income Portfolio

3. Strengthen Investment Cash Availability ( Not Warchest )

4. Maintain Dividend achieved in 2023 or more

Year 2025

1. Adjust US Portfolio allocation in measured pace

2. Continue Risk-Adjust Income Portfolio

3. Maintain Dividend achieved in 2024 or more

Simple Goals

Cory Diary

2024-0824

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Yen Carry Trade Crisis P2

Here's the Cory Equity Performance Chart on mainly still invested during the Yen Carry Trade crisis. This chart is for fun and educational purposes only.

Market is spooky and volatile. As Fed will likely do a first cut soon, the market will survive this year. However, unlike past cuts, they aren't in a situation to save the economy. So successive cut in short time may not be one. This time can be different but cutting consistently long term still rhyme.

Banks could well benefitted significantly and Reits will take longer to recover due to high rate cost staying high. Things may turn differently. Able to manage emotion has never been important as before.

Cory Diary

2024-0817

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Yen Carry Trade Crisis

The recent Carry Trade Crisis is a wake up call on how vulnerable our market is. It also reminded us we can't time it but will happen when it accidentally got triggered. The mosre important thing to me is what did I do considering I just recent expanded my US segment to 10% of Equity Portoflio.

My Nvidia position went negative together with recent addition in iBit and Tom Lee's favourite Russell 2000. Amazon took a beating as well but as most of the shares were acquired much earlier the impact today seems mute for recent days recovery. I sold off Msft to lock-in profit so as to mitigate the portfolio and now I have excess USD to content with. As the overall US positions are relatively small the impact is not enough to put a dent to the portfolio.

What really hit harder is when SG Bank stocks are sold down as well. This drives the DBS yield to more than 6.5% range which i deem too attractive not to collect more bank stocks. Yes more .... .  It doesn't makes a lot of sense unless people are forced to sell. Probably many people do carry trades to buy local banks or on margin long. See below allocation.

However, it doesn't trigger my warchest yet and the market starts to recover after Japanese authority reassures the market they aren't Alan Greenspan. This guy has a sadist strategy that market has to bust before boom at national level.

What I sorely missed in this sell down is to buy more Meta. Otherwise I think we are good to hold on most of the portfolio. Do I miss Microsoft. Probably not yet. Will we see a V-Shaped Recovery ? hmmm

Cory Diary

2024-0815

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Retirement Equity Portfolio Size

In my Quest for FIRE, the journey has not been easy but fruitful. Why do i say that is because FIRE aren't the Life Goal. Is the Experience that is key. While is commonly felt Experience got to do with going on holiday, this aren't what I meant. Is too narrow.

Life experience is about family, learning, building, helping, gaming, vacationing etc and FIRE helps to facilitate that. Example the pain and achievement going through NS combat vacation or simply as getting a driver license. Not everyone can go through the same experiences. Some have their own preferences. 

Having work for more than 25 years, thought is time to try and focus on many other stuffs. Formulated ones and those not. One of the hardest thing to let go is that of salary which will be quite sizeable by now and hard to let go mentally. The middle ground maybe trying to reach work life balance. Maybe tilted more away from work on the expense of promotion and increment.

Nevertheless, i thought is time to do another exercise on - Do we have Enough to Retire ?

The angle we will do is to pre-determine the expense and then verify with corresponding Equity Portfolio Size. For a dividend income portfolio, estimating the annual dividend maybe easier. For a growth portfolio, then we need to estimate the growth. For our case, will be both since my portoflio is mixed and probably we can pro-rated them accordingly.

The scenario will be expense is 9k monthly with 3% inflation. Taking into many factors into consideration like age, loan, non-equity income etc we can determine the portfolio size than can last by adjusting the size to our liking for our age to last.

The assumption is non-equity income size is more or less fixed by my age to support basic needs. Expanding this segment on low return can be wasteful unless warchest which can lowered your portfolio amount. There maybe situation where people can live more on non-equity income such as rental. In that case, adjust the Non-Equity side accordingly.

Below a sample computation. Select the picture for clearer view. 1M Starting Portfolio size to support 9k monthly expenses at 3% inflation can last till age 96 for me. There is drawdown of Equity portfolio to zero. There will be some inheritance from some non-equity allocation and property after. Not that bad.

The parameters can be changed to suit ones condition. I tabled few permutations to see how this go.

The finding is quite interesting which I am so keen to share so that people can avoid the danger.

Scenario A and B, just 0.5% inflation difference can set you back 7 years of retirement.

Scenario A and C, for 200k more, you likely have excess after your last breath despite drawdown.

Scenario E, a situation where your children will love you deep deep. Portfolio is divergence. There is no drawdown and probably grow beyond your dream hopefully.

Scenario F, if expense go out of hand and inflation increases too. Portfolio can only last 28 years despite larger 1.5M Portfolio size. The danger of Lean Fire is obvious.

Cory Diary

2024-0805

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.