Cory Diary : Net Worth - Fighting Mode

Generally Year 2020 has been quite trying for people who try to increase their net worth. 

I would expect many people pay reduced, on unpaid leave, retrenched, mute property and likely poor equity investment returns, 

This is particularly true for me because we have added expenses for additional member in the team. In Year 2019 I have estimated at least 140K expense which includes Home Loan that is well supported by investment returns.

For Year 2020 I don't think we deviate much expense wise however I am glad that she has chip in to help support baby clothing, shoes, Nappies, Toys, books, baby powders and food supplies. Dual income is so cool in bad times.

Here's the Net Worth chart. I won't go through the details.

Looks like the expense has not damaged the lines and able to hold-off so far. Rumor has it that we may not have increment and bonus this year so if that's the case we won't see a slight spike later on. Frankly speaking 2nd half could see better market condition.

There are a few new expenses this year.

The hot weather did add one addiction which is ice dessert. And I am getting a kick out of it recently. Hopefully this aren't permanent .... ... ... before the sweetness get my health.

$2 Serving

Have been using hotspot for a long time. With WFH in great play this year, Home Internet connection will be better serve but nevertheless an added expense.

Cory

2020-0822

Cory Diary : Aug Performance '20

Is already Mid-Aug and I was pondering whether to do a performance tracker update. The reason I did not do one early part of the month because I knew the coming price adjustment with Accordia Golf Trust and I am also in the process of mitigating the dividend income loss from the Golf Course sales. So with the news more or less definite near term and coming up with a plan on driving returns the chart may returns.

As below Chart, the gap widens to 19.1% against STI Index. I think one partial reason is due to ETF dividend just distributed. Cory returns -1%. Theoretical fund annual dividend has come down to 59k Covid returns.

Chart : Returns Comparison

As the yield gets lower with recovering market, new fund injection has to work much harder for the same dollar amount. However I need to compensate the dividend loss from AGT, and that's easier said than done. For one I try to avoid USD denominated counters as I find it a hassle which Reits are driving higher yields. Then I have enough banks exposures so any increase will be over allocation percentage. I also have same issue with increasing my stake in CMT.

There are few things I could do now.

1.    Increase my fund injection to drive higher dividends

2.    Re-balance my STI Index ETF to something else of higher yield.

3.    Not renew my Fixed Deposits that expired

4.    Reduce my cash holdings

5.    Exchange my foreign fixed deposits to local currency

I hope to do all above partially in measured ways.

Cory

2020-0818

Cory Diary : Trillions Dollars Printing - So What ?

Have we ever wonder why we don't see Zimbabwe 2.0 happening in America after Trillions Dollars printing ? Is another few Trillions going to matter ?

I think all below factors and which reinforce each other.

• Demand and Supply
• Export / Import - Trade
• Goods and Services
• Property and Financial Investments
• Saving and CPI Index
• Trade, Military and Infrastructure investments
• Confidence

Using myself as an example. I still earn my keep, invest my money, pay my loans, continue to save, do my banking and shop in super markets. All this are happening all over the country.

If I feel money is going to be worth much much less tomorrow, where there aren't much goods in the super market, people doing bank runs, hardly any economic activities, companies are emptying out, then I worry .....

What should I hold on ? Property, Gold, USD ?, Shares ? , .... 

For now, even if we add another 100k or another Million into my asset, my spending pattern not going to change much. Is either saved or put into work. So how to drive hyperinflation ?

Cory

2020-0817

Cory Diary : Trading Log 2020-0814

Due to Work-From-Home, Trading has increased despite very busy hours with my new born as I will managed time in-between caring for her as a relaxation instead of sleep. I will need to change this before sleeplessness becomes a norm.

SGX

Over months I have built-up a position in this counter after the large drop due to MSCI discontinuation. My thoughts is that this is financial, exchange, digital and Covid Proof. And the market over-reacted. Considering the situation in Hong Kong right now, I think MSCI moves probably not so good politically.

Below is the new interface of SGX Portfolio page. This is good improvement. Do note only track shares accredited to it. 

Yield wise, the increase in DPU is a positive move of SGX. And I am looking into their growth opportunities. Personally i feel they have many opportunities in the fintech future.

VICOM

The yesterday report of lower returns are not unexpected as the information is publicly known previously. My last position was June prior to the share splits so I did not sell at the top. I would think this may reflects on SBS Transit as well so avoided any new position on it. Both counters will be interesting to monitor.

DBS

Continue to average down on DBS as I feel the dividends able to provide is no brainer investment which is much better than my Reits. This is in-addition to the profitability. Unfortunately, MAS direction results Bank reducing their payout to 60% caught me by surprise in the sense Singapore Local bank gives me the impression that they are much more conservative in their operations compared to their oversea counterparts. So if any business is worth to lend, they would have the money.

The only risk which I have mentioned multiple times are Digital Banking Licenses which is an unknown risk which could put another big dent on Temasek earning after Keppel, Singtel, SBI, SBM, SAT, SIA ... are performing relatively poor. My list needs to be validated as I am using my untrained memory. Do the additional licenses timing be adjusted further or should it be curtailed ?

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

The long wait has finally arrived with the buy over of all the golf assets with a further price increase thanks to some key shareholders. From here, I learn that to have this folks are great. 

Relieved myself of recent increased position and some partial sale of existing holding as I am not very familiar with the entire returns process or any uneventful. The hope for remaining is we can have new surprises or my unknown that can further improve existing stakes as I will walk to the end probably as a learning experience.

The con of the buy over is that this counter provide good yield which will put a dent to my dividend plan. So I am in the process to mitigate but need to care that risk is also managed.

ASCENDAS REIT

Cleared all my positions when it run up recently. Manage to buy back in stages to build it back up after Ex-dividends. Due to this move, my dividend received has been reduced by more than 75% from this counter in exchange for capital gains. My final position is slightly smaller in shares from starting and overall I think a slight net increase compared to if I have done nothing. The experience is a not so fruitful exercise. Broker happy and I do not have loss.

The reason I buy back most of my shares are due to Ascendas is I feel is a key stake in any dividend portfolio. The yield has comes down slightly due to Covid but largely due to price increases. For later reason, one should not use yield to justify not buying back as it will be a big mistake. The counter is no longer my top position but certainly my best profit counter YTD.

There are more trades on others but I think today I have talked enough.

Cory

2020-0814

Cory Diary : Lowering Yield Continues

Fixed Deposits and SSB Returns

Rate continues to drop. Holding the 10 year SSB now has effective rate of 0.88%. What this mean is for every $1,000 invested, $8.88 per year of interests (On Average) provided I hold till end of 10 years. Probably a price of a Taxi trip ? That's how bad it is now.

A check on DBS bank Fixed Deposits the rate is 1.3% for 18 months which seems much better. So the older SSB offer of more than 2%, I may want to hold them tightly. It has become a "gem" within SSB universe.

ASTREA 3.85% BOND

Using some calculation with YTM, I compute the dividend is in range of 2.7% currently after cost with potential for slightly more due to contract clause. Assuming this Bond is as good in reliability as many safe bonds, this is rather good returns at current market price.

N6M / QL2 - iShares J.P. Morgan USD Asia Credit Bond Index ETF. This ETF is regional and has return currently at roughly 3% based on latest dividend which is marginally higher than Astrea above. The risk is the dividend has been coming down for past many quarters. ( see below) I am still learning on this and will keep monitoring.

STI ETF - Year 2020 Yield 4.5%.

This is traded in SGX like shares. Dividends are distributed twice a year.   Prior to the Dividend cap by MAS, Banks have about 35.6% weight-age of STI. Singtel about 7.8% but expect them to reduce their dividend. Reits about 15.1% if i totaled correctly. And expects to reduce too due to Covid. Therefore Year 2021 may dip to possible 2.7% yield range however this could be further reduce with increasing capital gain.  Please DYODD. 

Cory View

Line them up against the yield/growth of bank (60% div cap) and Reits ( Quality ones ) ..... and then few quarters of relatively large Covid impact periods. What should be the acceptable stock price of local banks and local Reits be valued with Growth in perspectives and when the beast unleashed ?

Cory

2020-0812

Cory Diary : Trying to be Optimistic

To be frank I was kind of frustrated this week. 

Ascendas Reit ( Must have Stock for Dividend Player which I blogged previously) continues to run up this week to another all time high after selling half my position because I do not think market sentiment can be so exhilarating. I could have a couple of grands more.

I also decided to clear Ascendas-iTrust batch for a quick trade forgetting the result is coming up at the end of the day. It did a good price jump the next day to my dismay. What am I thinking ? Which probably cost me another grand.

MAS also announced 60% cap of bank dividends for Year 2020 to my surprise despite the banks are well within their capacity to provide more. This will decrease my dividend by a mile. This dividend cap affects market sentiment and the moment I bought MCT, the counter starts its correction.

Hong Kong virus situation hits another waves and social distancing is reimposed. This affects MNAC operation which show no emotion in reflecting into the stock price. This is bad because I just bought another batch for the yield. 

To top it off, PRC Covid-19 cases start climbing and CRCT weaken some for me to scope a batch of stocks. As I was deliberating to sell days after as there is a little gain in the backdrop of the broad market weakness, I did not execute it at that moment. The price then move to negative territory. .. ...

Not forgetting my Diary subject line, 

I manage to sell a batch of Ascendas Reit at $3.62 on ex-dividend day and bought back at $3.53 before the day ends. I am still not yet near my original allocation though since I first sold.

As for Ascendas-iTrust, the price weakened, and the delta is now within a few days fluctuation. Don't feel so bad now considering I have fewer counters to manage, and cash raised.

MAS calls for dividend cap put a dent on my dividends this year as Banks are core position in my portfolio. It could have been worst like Banks in UK where they could not distribute even a single cent for Year 2020.  With the reduced dividend from SG Banks, this put my investment at lower risk in current Covid Climate. I am not perfectly happy for the exchange but nonetheless there is some positives out of it at a time when many businesses are struggling.

Company like SIA with state support and major rights issue, I am not sure is sufficient as market speculation is Year 2024 full recovery. People who still buy a stake in it, i salute you for your "National Service" but I think valuation can be create or destroy out of thin air and not with our Real Money in such circumstances. Is just passing of wealth from one investor to another that's all.

The HK government has relaxed their Covid measures probably due to business pressure, and my stake in MNAC is smallish. But I feel personally in such congested location, Malls are the way to go when we recover so the future is what we should think about. Same applies to CRCT on yield front. So I am ok to hold on for cash flow for long term play in a diminishing yield portfolio..

Lastly,  MCT purchases are at relative low price. Despite the price went lower after, feel serene that I am able to hold another Maple counter after I sold this last year. Long term likely hard to go wrong.

What an unforgettable  week ! Key lesson is as blogged earlier that we need to diversify as a retailer and whatever largest holding we have, expect the unexpected.

Cory

2020-0802