Cory Diary : Not My Day , Mr Super !

In one of the local Taipei supermarket I just went, Nescafe retail space occupied like 4 rows of products in the coffee section despite repeats of same product sku. Finally spot a single spot of our local brand Owl coffee box.

Design looks good

Happily bought it home. Not sure is it my eagerness to try. Attempt to pick up and tear along the segregated lines of the packaging box doesn't work well. Looks like the package is not very well made. Maybe the humidity in local condition ? Quality important leh. Maybe uncle too excited. :P

Box Torn ...

Never mind. Next pull out a sachet. And tear the top line for the opening. Somehow I also torn the coffee bag inside together and some powders splash out. Wa lan .... #$%#$%#. My disappointment growing liao.

DIY ...

Ok stingy me. I took the torn off part and tie a knot around the coffee powder bag. Done ! My 3 minutes coffee lor. The taste not too "ko" and quite smooth. Happy to drink without sugar.

The box indicated "Product of Vietnam" under license and pack for Owl... Super Group Building. Anyway share share lah. Think Super can do a little better. Still got hope.

Please hor. Total Quality => Branding. Very simple logic.








Cheers

Cory
20160827

Cory Diary : Cut Loss , Part Two

Has been holding this post in draft bucket for more than 2 weeks. Putting numbers to simulate scenarios on price going down trend. The figures are arbitrary. Is not meant to encourage anyone to cut loss on any particular stock. Is meant to educate myself on risk management.

B - Buy , S - Sell

Cutting loss at one go as in scenario 1 , 2 and 3 at different price points. Losses ballooned.
How about staggered loss in Scenario 4. Almost Scenario 2 except you get to see $13 price range.

Feeling Rich not to cut loss and instead average down at different stages in scenario 5. Ended up with 20 Lots with -$33.5 K loss and 300 K asset stuck.

When market knifed, a number freeze. Some choose not to cut loss even when they know is coming. They are the "Heroes".  A number even average down till no bullets. For the timid me now, I will cut if fundamental is against me, and not how deep my pocket is. And buy back at my terms.

Who are you ?

Cory
20160826

Cory Diary : Hyflux 6% PerCapSec Part 2

Just as I have written recently on Hyflux 6% PerCapSec (corrected term), they decided to play punk. Thanks to Swiber ! We have a lesson learned. Will the macro stock market get worst ? I think it can, considering poor Singapore economic performance. But fixed returns are kind of "Protected under Lehman definition haha " provided the firm continues to be alive.

Before you read, I like to warn again. For those who see the world in "Black" and "White", please ignore me ... err I mean my article as is a lot of Estimation, Guess work and Intuition.  This mean you need to grow up to own your decision. I have to own mine often. :)


Below Par

Hyflux 6% PerCapSec price dropped to 0.946 (Below Par). Below Par happens to Oxley and Aspial bonds too. Thus, likely market sentiment. And this happens when retailers did not do their home work. This also tell me there maybe opportunity created by the fearful.

If Hyflux pay up their dividend this Nov on the Hyflux 6% PerCapSec, the return will be 0.03. With two more potential gains to come along with it.

a. Return to parity meaning 0.054 more.
b. Premium of the listed PS which may hit 0.02.

That's a total of 0.054+0.02+0.03 = 0.104 returns or potentially 10.4% within 3 months and a week. Hope I get it right. Greed set in. haha. I think is worth my time to do some investigation and assess the risk again.


Comparison

The problem started with Swiber. So I think maybe i should do a comparison between Hyflux and Swiber information. Please do your sum as I manually key it off quickly from the information I got from the web so there maybe careless error.

When i look at the data as a non-financial reader, I see work being done in Hyflux. I see growth. In-addition Hyflux has a key financial advantage which is Hyflux 6% PerCapSec to support flexibility which Swiber didn't get in time.


Model Strength

Hyflux supports build and Operate. Engineering, Procure and construct. This are analogy to "Printer". The recurring income from membrane sales will be like "Printer cartridges".


Cash Flow

• Operating cash flows after SCA and tax paid included investments into construction of
Qurayyat IWP and TuasOne WTE project.
• Investing cash outflows mainly for investment in PT Oasis Water International, a 50%
joint venture in Indonesia.
• Financing cash inflows mainly from proceeds from issuance of $500 million perpetual
capital securities in May 2016.

What people see is cash flow. But what I see is strong management oversight. I see execution. I see financial supports. I see they have a plan and seems to know what they are doing.


Summary

As previously mentioned Hyflux 6% PerCapSec is a little for the risk we have to pay for to proof their model is successful as we may lose our investment. But why would anyone want to pay more if they can get sufficient subscription. If they have paid higher and screwed their investment returns, is a lose-lose proposition.

As right now, the returns from recent market sentiment is quite attractive.
If I am to bet, I will be on Olivia side. But do I dare ? Once we go in, it can be a slippery slope of no return. This is Investment Risks.


Cory
20160820

Cory Diary : Cory Worth and Markets

Overview

Net Worth slips back to mean growth after last year Chinese Market onslaught. China market went feverish which I anticipated it will fall as it does not match with Xi anti-corruption drive. When the brick hits my chart, it still went for a dive and ended up with a lower gear of the continuum norm.We are now a quarter and half period before 2016 year finish and I hope we did not hit a brake like in 2015.  Roughly a year to come back up to the Pre-Crash level.

Top left of the chart is the "Is" and "Is Not". I have them structured that way previously and for comparison to continue as such.


Bre-Exit Period 2016

Strictly speaking the Bre-Exit did not boost my net worth. The portfolio recovered within span of a week. Did some mitigation moves unnecessarily which reduced my potential gains. Nevertheless, the market broad strength continues to accelerate up. Swiber could have caused a dent but mitigated due to other sectors progress and my avoidance in Oil/Gas counters, the impact has been mute. Took the opportunity to adjust my banking sector investments. I also took profit in a US Stock with 30% gains so that I can focus more on SG Markets in the coming months.

Crisis

Over the years, after each crisis, my asset continues to move up.This is also reflected in my investment returns. Governments tendency to moderate currency strength has shown to be the safer bet to support the new economy, and I feel is rightly so. No serious regulatory economist will do otherwise as the fear impact can be disastrous. However yield get lower over time and debts relatively cheap that we could finance huge supply in sector in Oil Infrastructure, Commodity and Shipping. Broadly speaking this are good for lowering the cost of living except for those who lost their jobs. Yet much cash is still in abundance, and property could be the next frontier again to absorb the excesses for those untapped.


Cory
20160815

Cory Diary : SEMBCORP MARINE LTD

I feel history today and do a quick study. Is like a review after a great battle. I am not vested in Oil and Shipping Industry directly but that doesn't mean I should not read up on it. So whatever I find and understand is subjective and conclusion could be wrong.

Started with an article from BT dated FEB 16, 2016.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/sembmarine-cosco-buffeted-by-s1-billion-in-combined-q4-losses

"THE strain of low oil prices on the offshore and marine sector was in full display on Monday, as two heavily-exposed Singapore-listed companies reported a combined S$1 billion in fourth-quarter losses."

"The losses were partly the result of the reversal of profits already recognised for the construction of oil rigs and ships that might now never be delivered."

Next, reading latest reported AR. 

Profits for 2Q 2016 is $10,737 ('000). Down from 2Q 2015 $113,167('000)

So will we see even a larger crawl back later ?

Debts
And their debts reported increased quite significantly.

Then, i check other announcement and realised they still do Share Buyback. This doesn't feel good when we clearly know the market is not working and if we are using debts to push up prices. What are they thinking ? 

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAnnouncement_Content&B=AnnouncementLast3MonthsSecurity&F=LYPA1524Z2VRQH6X&H=776398d18e8e71d5142d62155ee307be6b3ba12f8d4ccc813ae7660cfa29046b

Final check on the chart, and I can't help thinking is this industry boosted by loose monetary policy which like Shale Oil build up from debts and more debts except differ in cost foundation and which later pushes it further down the road.

Will it get worst ?

See the chart below.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-28/singapore-s-millionaires-humbled-in-local-bond-restructurings

Conclusion

NAV is $1.2029. Share Price is $1.32. Considering the risk and returns, does it make sense ? Compare to another industry like Property which is still earning quite ok are at 30% discount to NAV. Opportunity cost is not my cost today when it can be really toxic.

Cory

20160807

Cory Diary : Misleading CAGR

Smoothed return

It assumes a smoothed return over the period that’s measured. In reality, investments experience significant short-term ups and downs. Be careful when you are sold with 1 Year to 8 Years performance. On 7-8 years, there's a low due to GFC that time in 2008 on crash and huge recovery. All monkeys able to perform. Fine ! Not all monkeys just "99.5%".

Size of fund

What this means is that a fund manager can work on multiple small funds, and then select the few that happens to wins over the measured period and present them to you. Which will convince the most sceptic their performance. 

Ins and Outs

It doesn't work on personal equity investment which has multiple transactions. 

From Investopedia,

"CAGR is very straightforward when there is a beginning and ending value, and set period of time. But in reality, investments, such as mutual funds, have continuous cash inflows and outflows and are required to report monthly, quarterly, annual, and even daily returns."

Cory

20160802