Jun 20, 2021

Cory Diary : Interest rates - Saver Alert

I remember many years ago, accidentally decided to put $10k into a fixed deposits for 5% annually. Think nothing much of it then. Financial Literacy is non-existence especially from a family of below average where investing in stock market is equate to Gambling. If we think 5% will happen again, is highly unlikely, and we will probably be in trouble if indeed it happens.

Interest rates on average has been coming down for the past 40 years. Savers are thoroughly burned. Long term wise, chances are interest rates won't be high even in between there maybe rate fluctuations that confuse investors for a tiny moment in time.

Therefore, any bet of interest rates impacting Reits long term or benefitting banks are likely hallucinations in the long run. Bottom line is how each of this businesses are run. So for opportunists, any news of rate hikes one could benefits from trading due to market sentiment driving respective business sector.


A simple arithmetic on Saving in Fixed Deposit vs Stock in reliable Reit. We don't even want to talk about growth stock.



From table above, a saver takes more than 8 years what a stock investor can do with just a single year to achieve. Yes the later has Risk but what doesn't in life ? The Risk in fixed deposit will be much higher due to inflation is definite. Saver anchoring to mental fixed number in bank account could be detrimental to their financial well being.

However, a saver who has no interests in Fundamental of Business could be a tall order able to choose the right Unit Trust or Stock Picking. Even Insurance Investment and Bank Products could be even worst for them as they have significant vested interests to profits from the sales. Many Bonds are mediocre and not easy to understand and assess by Savers with potential to even risk away their coffin money.

What else can a saver person do if they have no interest to pick up on stock investment ? Personally I feel that's left with CPF and Broad Market index such as STI and S&P500 with preference to the later due to Wider Market. I would probably fill all three if I am them. 

Just reminder this is Not replacement for insurance which I feel is critical. And all above is just my personal view and not advise as I am not qualified. But who else can they seek advise from that is whole heartedly helping them  ? Maybe we need a National Reach system.

So Please DYODD.


Cory
2021-0620

Jun 16, 2021

Cory Diary : Changing Expectation

I have faint memories of my first home, a one-room HDB flat in Toa Payoh more than 45 years ago. As a child, I rarely ventured beyond our block and spent most of my time in the long, dark common corridor that was flanked by units on both sides. The building itself was a long block with a central area connecting two blocks. In those days, chewing gum was abundant and unsightly patches of gum stuck to the cement floors.

Our entire floor, which had more than 20 units, had no lift. It only stopped on specific floors, so we had to climb the stairs for the rest. Once or twice, someone urinated in the lift, and the smell was unbearable. Often, one of the corridor or stairway lights would be spoiled, and if we were lucky, it would be dark for that segment of the corridor, otherwise, the flickering lights would blur my vision. Thin railings fenced off both ends of the corridor, and from our end, we could see the open space carpark below. Owning a car was a luxury in those days.



One interesting social behavior was that neighbors would leave their doors open, and there were no gates then. A small hump on the entrance prevented water from flowing in or out of the unit when the cleaner washed the corridor. I would often visit my Malay neighbors across the walkway just to explore, and they were always welcoming to a three-year-old Chinese boy's "intrusion" visits.

It was also the first and last place where I witnessed my father and his friends praying in the direction of Mecca. I loved the carpeted area where my elder sister and I would lie down and watch TV. Our black-and-white TV was large, almost like a table, and watching it too much probably resulted in my having to wear glasses at an early age. I still remember the cartoon with the song "Gu Gua Gu Gua Xiao Qin Wa...", about the story of a frog. The entire unit size was probably the size of a living room space of a 4-room flat, so there was no separation between the bed and the living room.

There was a narrow pathway connecting the kitchen to the backyard, and the narrow side was fenced with a railing at the bottom, so I could see what was happening on the ground floor. Once, I was naughty and dropped an eaten apple stem a few floors above, hitting a young girl's arm on the ground floor. She shrugged it off and walked away.

Right at the back of the backyard, we needed to make a U-turn to get into the toilet. The door was made of flimsy metal sheet, and it made a cranking sound every time we used it. We had to squat to get our business done, and I never really understood which direction I should face, but squatting was easy then. It would be a feat for me to try today. Back then, you could slip and have your feet stuck inside the shit hole if you were not careful. There was also a rubbish chute in our backyard, but it smelled.

Doing laundry used to be a strenuous task for housewives, involving rubbing clothes on a washboard in the toilet. It seemed like my mother did this all day. However, I found the process interesting. The long bamboo pole used to hang the clothes was heavy and angled, making it a challenge to handle when it was loaded with wet clothing. It required a certain level of skill to hang them out to dry under the hot sun. I still recall the practice of our neighbor, who lived one floor above us, slamming the bamboo pole against the outside wall to notify us that she planned to hang wet clothes. My mother would then quickly collect the dried clothes.



Our home was simple, lacking a table, with only a master bed neatly tucked against the inner wall. The floor was polished cement. Across from the bed was a window where my mother placed her vintage sewing machine.

Surprisingly, our home did not have a fan or air conditioner, but I hardly ever felt hot. Perhaps we were conditioned to the climate in those days, or the room temperature was much lower. Life was simple back then because we did not have mobile phones, computers, or washing machines. However, we did have a charcoal oven in the backyard for cooking Chinese medicine for hours. It was also the place where my mother would slaughter chickens, which was quite gross, with blood dripping down.

I just remembered that we did not have a water heater, but I never felt very cold while taking a shower. In the kitchen, we had a medium-sized fridge, which was already common and invented by the 1970s. Other than that, I can only recall the washing basin next to it. We hardly ever ate outside, as my mother would cook all our meals, visiting the wet market, which was within walking distance. Supermarkets and coffee shops were unheard of, and our expenses were very low.

Living like we did back then would make it much easier to raise a family with less money, even after adjusting for inflation. However, I could never live like that today unless I had no other choice.



Cory
2021-0616 - First Pass

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Jun 14, 2021

Cory Diary : Investment Updates

Last week we seen a change in tone in the market. There appears to be more buys of Local Reits than Banks/Index. So their performance charts is closing in. If this trend continues we will see good result for the local market.


Sheng Siong

One of the stocks I am keenly interested in is Sheng Siong. It has been in and out of my portfolio for years as I never view it as long term holding even though I invest based on long term expectation of returns. This time round after the significant correction from high $1.85, it has seen 15% correction today. Decide not to wait further and increase my investment in Sheng Siong. Allocation wise is now 3.8% of my portfolio. Still not large enough. We will see is there further opportunity.


SGX

Blogged about SGX a few times I guess. Elaboration of one is here. ( Link ). Price has increased from 8.71 to 10.73 at today trading. 23% increase for 10 months wait. Current yield is about 3% but if we are to value based on this we cannot be further from the wrong as the rational we buy has more weight in its growth and steady returns. Currently allocation has grown to 6.3% from market capital gains as I have not manage to buy more this year. While it is not in the same business as iFast, both has the Financial, Technology and Moat themes. Basically fintech businesses. Their future will last a long while than the 3 major banks. 

So how to assess the situation. At this yield, as mentioned above, people who are willing to buy at this price is looking mainly for capital gains through growth now. How I wish they setup crypto exchange wing instead of collaborating with DBS. Oh well I am vested in DBS but that is not the same. To estimate the growth takes too much work for me right now as I have to read up more as is no longer low hanging fruits though I am confident is not high high up there yet. Hold for me now. 


MINT

On current right issue. Allocated slightly more than 1lot (old system ... ). Excess yet known. Hopefully I can get a lot more than anticipated. At price 2.64 is rather cheap for a Reit with good amount of DCs and good yield. Having say that I could potentially buy more from the market if necessary to further build up my allocation in the portfolio. If I am to rank all the strong reits, Mapletree Family is number one imo.

The next move of my action in the counter if there are will likely be right after Excess allocation as there could be opportunities. There should be some meats for upside supported by good DPU.


VICOM

So far this year, this counter price is a little boring as it is not moving much. Not much News since I last reviewed. I do not have a good grasp of the situation to be sure should I play more or others. I am more engrossed with many other counters and has neglected it. Dividend wise is ok but not great. Maybe it is still absorbing the 1 to 4 splits. What I don't see enough here is the growth story compared to SGX. Vicom is quite behind in this aspect. I would rank it long term safer than Net Link BNB Tr however Vicom is much less dynamic. Another Hold in my Portfolio.


Astrea 3.85%

Cleared all finally. I blogged earlier on shift to CPF focus for my bond segment and this month I have the opportunity to do just that. At 1.049 after Ex-dividend, it has 2.2% yield after cost. Still good lah. Do note this yield calculation can varies between people but I sold mine with this data in mind. So pls DYODD as usual. CPF is giving me 2.5% for OA. 4% for SA. If I have a lot of spare cash, I could continue to hold till each year CPF Top-Up however I may not get the sell price I want since this proceed is for funding my warchest. I may regret so there is no right or wrong. Is still a good place to park money.


Cory

2021-0614

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.