Cory Diary : GE 2020 Afterthoughts

The Election

Year 2020 Election returns PAP the super majority unsurprisingly. In a democratic world today, this is rare feat let alone since independence. Personally I feel even running a clean government with strong efficiency they still need to do a number of shrewd moves to secure that amount of seats. The opposition is not dumb either and they try to outsmart the incumbents.

If we remember in the Year 2015, there is lingering sentiment from Lee Kuan Yew's death and Jubilee Year celebrations. There is also ongoing issue over financial lapses discovered at the Aljunied-Hougang Punggol East Town Council in opposition ward. This inadvertently push up the votes.

In this year election, a Covid-19 and Recession Year, there is no good timing for PAP. ( Timing can be even worst for the ruling party), WP's Pritam Singh has shown maturity who also has Jamus Lim as a wild card that probably single-handedly turn the tide of battle to a public looking for credible opposition voices in the parliament.

Is with this context, that we enter GE2020. The PAP votes are much lower than GE2015 which broadly defines GE2020 trends but marginally higher than GE2011. Interestingly, WP do no better in votes count if we look at the chart above even though they have more seats.


Highlights

1.  East Coast GRC is ripe for grab by the opposition. With a number of potential candidates in the cabinet, this allowed the party to move PM in waiting Minister Heng to East Coast in the last minute. This is a calculated moves. If he loses, which is unlikely but for the rare possibilities if he does, maybe another PM should be selected. The move is to ensure the GRC remains with PAP and then strengthen the area there over time. If Mr Heng cannot achieve that so be it and PAP won with a slim majority. phew !

2. Another weak spot is West Coast GRC challenge by Tan CB team. In 2015 Election the smaller GRC was challenged by RP which is a much weaker team. PAP has a commanding lead that time with 78% votes. This year they almost lose it with a slim majority of just 52%. This can be seen as TCB effects. A big disappointment to him. This also show how vulnerable Singapore election can be which LKY was highly concern that the government can flip overnight. Singaporeans do care to remember.

3. CSJ of SDP decided not to continue to lead GRC and gun for the weakest SMC other than opposition ward Hougang (WP) to contest in Bukit Batok SMC. Unfortunately for him, Murali wins Bukit Batok SMC with 54.8%.

4. Seng Kang GRC loss is a surprise but not impossible considering the swing of votes. Led by labour chief Ng Chee Meng ,lost to the WP team by a margin of 4.26%, losing his ministerial post, though he will remain as Secretary-General of NTUC. Is a loss to PAP but not something they cannot live with.

There are also a few marked Wins that underscore they have the confidence of the people despite some controversy over the years in them.

5. A new team from the People's Action Party (PAP) led by Manpower Minister Josephine Teo secured 65.37 per cent of the votes against the Peoples Voice (PV) team headed by party chief Lim Tean in the four-member Jalan Besar GRC. This is an acknowledgement that voters willing to looks beyond "You don't need much space to have sex" and cramped migrant worker dorms problem.

6. Tanjong Pagar voters chose the team led by Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing, 50. The PAP team won 63.13 per cent of the votes in the ward. Another key member is Prime Minister's Office Indranee Rajah. Leaked audio clips of the Minister didn't do much damage. I thought is quite comical but real life.

7. Ms Tin Pei Ling, of the People's Action Party (PAP), romped home to victory for the second time in MacPherson SMC, sweeping up 71.74 per cent of the votes. Pretty Amazing score. No more little girl next door.

Lastly which I feel important is that PM Lee’s move to formalise Workers’ Party (WP) chief Pritam Singh as Leader of the Opposition role. What this mean is he will have access to thing they never before which could signifies the trust the government has on WP that they can work with for betterment of Singapore. 

This is also align with voters view as well that WP is a much more credible than others and is better that PAP starts to work with someone that they are comfortable with. The move means we avoided divisive politics in the future and kudos to PM Lee for stepping up to do this before he steps down. This is a big plus for Singapore.

Quite exciting event for a Covid Year !

Cory

2020-0714

Cory Diary : Retirement Calculator and a Miracle find !

The Math - Quite sometime since I last do the Math on how much to retire, to invest and to expense. If we are to do a perfect computing, this will be almost impossible or hassle. This doesn't mean we can't do a quick and dirty plan which can be representative.

The first table right below generate $60k per annum. Investment Money runs out only at age 98. However there are CPF, Bome, Saving, FD and SSB (aka Buffer & Legacy) which would easily extend the age to 110. More than enough to retire safely.

Table 1 : Retirement Math

The Second Table is what I like to show you. What-if I increase my investment just by 100k right below. At the age of 99, portfolio still has 1.8M ! That's so magically about compounding effect by just have a little more additional saving.

Table 2 : Retirement Math

Retire Plan - To retire most people depends on few income streams or reserve. Local Saving, SSB and FD are typically low returns safe investments. They are the reserve. The other common between most of us is CPF which provides one of the safest returns for marginally higher returns if one is not politically bias. 

Income stream typically comes from Rent, Bonds and Equity Investment. As we know Bonds are quite risky if they are higher yielding. You could lose all your capital and reset your retirement plans for good. Even lowering yield ones need to do homework because is not guaranteed. Nevertheless I wouldn't want to take riskier products for income if is not necessary to meet certain level of my retirement goal. Renting out a room could be an alternative though a little inconvenience. If one could manage, additional property will help a lot but we need to take care of loan.

Equity wise, investment class various widely as it tied to business and market conditions of the stock. Singapore STI ETF is one good way to invest however if we are to compared to other global general market indexes, STI don't do as well. This I feel got to do with how fast they update the stocks in the index and the listed companies performance. Oil price has significantly battered a number of them. The introduction of 4th Telco put a spanner to the Telcos. The developers gains are curbed. Most importantly the under lying stocks are not updated quick enough. A good example is Reit sectors which have been doing well for many years but only more of them are introduced in recent times at much higher price.

Finally, one can do businesses as sleeping partners but I wouldn't bet on it that we can feel relatively safe for most people. This segment is for the rich which have additional money to play but for average or middle class, every bullet counts in retirement.

In Summary, I have all above mentioned products. Relatively diversified but not as wide for some people. To able to do this, we must be able to build a nest out from having a stable job, saving and years of investment compounded. Unless we are born with silver-spoon this is a necessity. And the danger of having one is that we tend to less appreciate them and lose them.

There is also one additional bonus is that I have decided to stay employed till told not. This will help to support expenses without need to draw down my investment for now in-addition to growing my Nest. I do this because is dangerous to feel rich and quit however I have no plan to stress myself out while being employed. The health cost could breaks everything.

Last Message

One very last important concept today I found is that a little additional saving has a huge impact to my portfolio whether it is still viable at Age 99. See table 2 again. Please read them closely. Is a miracle. You want legacy and buffer. This is the true wonder step to take and not leaving your HDB flat for your children.

And we can do this without taking unnecessary risk in our portfolio as one saving grows that could set us back for years. One thing to note the parameters are there to product the table results. As one buffer grows, we can do  tweak to them to adjust to one needs.

For example, if I want a lifestyle of $8k monthly assuming other parameters same, I would need a portfolio of $2M. This tell you how realistic your expectation. All this can be done easily with Excel Spreadsheet.

Table 3 - Retirement Math

Have a nice day.

Cory

2020-0711

Cory Diary : Benefited from Covid-19

There has been a lot of negatives about this pandemic. In reality it has. Many people died from it. Many will have long term suffering. In many countries, many has lost their jobs. Cory was hit  when the portfolio came down as much as  -25% at one point. Interestingly, the investment remains and not waiver.

As today, the portfolio has fully recovered. What's more. Here's my list to put up in positive perspectives during this period. 

1. Theoretical Annual Dividends increased by 10k with similar portfolio size. That's probably 20% increase in dividends.

2. Birth of 2nd daughter. Bringing home a premature baby girl has it challenges but we are happy to have a second child. Ability to work from home helps my wife significantly as we take turns doing all the needed at home.

3. Company re-org resulting I need to also manage Europe and America staffs. So working from home helps with the different time zones and further add to my justification to go less to office. Some people may say no work life balance. I beg to differ due to significant  flexibility of my time.

4. Cab price has comes down some. The cost is about 20% cheaper and helps to lower the cost transporting my elder child to nanny home

5. Most of the time we order food online and delivered to our home. This save quite an amount of time as we dine at home.

6. Transportation cost has been basically reduced. This is not just work but also travelling abroad. Communication is now Video conferencing or Chat messaging.

7. Cash payout from Covid-19 support packages

8. Oil price has remains low. This translates to stable or lesser increase in electrical and water bills. Due to inflation constant price increase is actual normal the key is how much. So I view that things can get much worst than we have today when we look at price increases.

9. Lesser pollution to mother earth. The air and sky have never been much better due to lesser consumption. People from less develop or poor environmental policy countries benefited the the most interestingly with the economic slowdown. People will miss it.

There will be major shift in the industries and country economy from this experience. Is a good time to position ourselves for the future for a fresh start. Virus testing industries. Medical and manufacturing of protection products. Education systems. Working lifestyle. Even Supply Chain robustness. Instead of looking for Offensive Strategy, will Defensive Strategy works like avoidance ?

Something to ponder about.

Cory
2020-0709