Cory Diary : Ascendas Reit gets even better with Rights !

Ascendas Reit


This Reit comes into Cory portfolio pretty late. In the initial positions in 2017 there were quite a number of trading activities. Make some kopi money.  Investment only get significant in 2018 which interestingly registered a net loss position by year end. Today, Ascendas Reit is Cory largest position after STI ETF.

So one may ask why so late in the game on this one. The key reason is Ascendas is expensive relative to itself. The chart is ever growing so stock price continues to climb year after year. So Cory keep postponing and finally one day strike his head that if one day it does really get cheap enough, he may not want to buy any ! So that's the 2nd Enlightenment !

Strong Reit is sort after because they perform consistently or should I say grow continuously in DPU. What this mean is for every share invested, the dividend returns are more each year. To top it up, the capital gain as well. So if one try to wait, this may never comes. We can miss this gem completely but Cory prefers to be late than never. This year for some period Ascendas Reit is Cory top performer registering strong returns before being overtaken by little brother Ascendas-h Tr, and Mapletree Ind Tr later.

When the News is out on the large acquisition, Cory is bewildered. Most people would automatically expect stock price to be lowered on the next trading session but not Cory when he regains his composure and who then secretly wish for price gains (link). Indeed, it does and Cory managed to sell some lots at $3.19. The many reasons Cory has provided in the link. However, the price come down later to $3.12 which is still respectable considering the huge Rights discount. The reason for the sale is more on re-balance rationale and taking some profit off the table.

Will the price comes back up is anybody guess. However in Cory heart l, it easily could. And considering the size and yields, it gets more attractive than before. If the price fall significant enough, getting more lots would be very tempting for a stake in the biggest Reit in town. Cory almost want to say Ah Gong throw money to investor to take. LOL

There is one saying. If you visit China but did not climb the Great Wall, you aren't a MAN (“不到长城非好汉”). Cory like to add, if you do not have Ascendas Reit in your portfolio, you aren't a dividend player either. (joking ... don't kill me .. is late). And as usual disclaimers .... for errors and not a stock pick recommendation. Is just a diary of what Cory is thinking and he could be very very wrong.


Cory
20191106

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Nov'19 Report

Just about a week ago Cory documented an early exam report card thinking the score will go down this week but he didn't. If you miss his Diary on Oct Performance. Must visit.  ( link ). Is good to be wrong for this case isn't it ? Again a good problem to have.

And then he wrote another piece of work on How to make money ..... (No Scam okay ... here's the link ). This piece of Diary is Classic .... as it summaries Cory progression .... or regression .... . which I find is important to understand the essence though kiasu and kiasi methods can varies.

To cut it short here's the Final Equity Allocation.

For Year 2019,

XIRR YTD      : 24.4%
XIRR Dec'19 : 19.7%

(updated for privacy) . Cory maybe right to say portfolio will be lowered just that is not this week but probably next. 

First of all is the announcement of Ascendas Reit Rights Issue. In Cory opinion, the discount is quite large in order to raise enough sum. The fortunate thing is for this time is not along private placement lines that they are quite familiar with as this will put a dent on shareholders value. The second thing the manager did right is to allow the rights to be sold. This mitigate value loss. And on top of it is DPU and Yield accretive on such a solid Reit which gets even better in gearing and property spread after. The ex-rights date is also aligned to Ex-dividend. Though Cory secretly hopes for price increase, needs to prepare for reduction in his heart too.

Secondly, Portfolio took a small hit due to Aims Apac Reit secondary listing. So much learning for the past weeks. There is no new share issue but the placement at $1.35 basically allows "richer retailers" to do a quick flush into the market. It has since climb back a little. Guess vested folks will be looking sternly into the coming DPU report for any misgiving. Yes, Cory clinching to George reputation, integrity, acumen, ... apology for the stress if you have read it though unlikely. 

(updated for privacy) 


Cheers

Cory
2019-1101

Cory Diary : Making money work for you

Most people work on salaried income. Spend like 9 hours or even 15 hours a day.  And If you are in this mode of life and trying to get out from this rat race, there is limited options. One of the popular option is to join the long queue with aunties and uncles and hope to strike TOTO. This seems to be harder than kenna strike by lightning but many aren't deterred by it. Cory sometimes go buy when he is down in morale ... but halfhearted. So even harder to strike. LOL

Uncle Cory thinks he should work on a more viable option. That's to have money. And hatched his plan more than a decade ago by saving money. And then he saw the property bubbles come and go. Stocks market bubbles come and go. Even Fixed deposits "Bubbles" come and go ... Every $100, 000 loses $3, 000 annually to inflation ... ( Cory must be "Rich" .... to let this happen  ! ). Are you too ?

After going through Math, Uncle Cory decided to hatch another plan that is really really viable. That's to make money works for him. This time he probably get it right. One of the main reason is that the effort invested is little or using his spare time to learn as Cory needs to work. Of-course Cory needs to have money to Work. He has .... if you remember his first plan. LOL.

That doesn't mean is a linear process as Cory can do in parallel. Amount is never too small.  The experience gained and incremental saving will be compounded for the future. However Cory aren't savvy enough to use leverage other than technically the property loan which also means avoid stacking the risk to uncontrollable level.

So as you can see, Cory is kiasi and kiasu. I think most NORMALs are ! So that's what Cory do below. Depending on situation,  money is apportioned due to regulation and needs through below.


CPF

Investment is very limited when it is "Sure Win". The obvious one is CPF which are systematically saved and contributed. Is not like we have a choice anyway but nevertheless on paper they have saving, contribution and interests elements build into it. As many would know, is politically not so correct to promote to everyone. Cory has a friend who curse day in and out on it that is not our money and that is a fraud but then he plans to reserve it for his children education. huh ?! 

Cory have another friend who is on the extreme end and keep topping up money into CPF till millionaire status however he is a savvy investor, and supporter of establishment. Maybe Life is full of irony and Cory takes is that Investment and political view should not mixed. Cory plan is not to touch them for investment, and optimise enough OA into SA. Maybe some experts got better ideas. Cory is just sharing his current plan.


Bonds/Preference Shares

The next "safer" ones probably are Bonds/Preference Shares on the local banks. Is quite unimaginable they will collapse or write down. However, never say never. Leman Brothers is a living proof. Unique exceptions aside, generally I would assume our local banks are next best things to Gov guaranteed.

Between CPF and above, probably Singapore Saving Bonds (SBB) for more protective funds. Limited to $200 k of 1.7% currently. Not very exciting but good enough for those who are conservative like Cory. However don't get this wrong. The devil is always in the detail and so is goodies. Cory is vested between 2%~2.5% range and is only single digit percentage of his net worth. Most importantly, is money reserve for emergency and loan installments back up which could otherwise by in Fixed Deposits.


Fixed Deposits / Cash

The worst thing to do is too have ample cash in Saving bank doing nothing. Cory typically only needs certain amount for emergency cash flow needs. A large portion of it parked in Fixed Deposits which can earns 1.4% easily. So got this FIXED. You can try other banks .... . Just make sure is really safe.


Equity

Is a path to wealth expansion for those who do not have a really good paying jobs. However, the market is ruthless on those who make mistakes and could set you back for years financially. Cory struggles on who should be in it. Having swim in the shark-infested water for many years and still surviving doesn't mean many can. However, to reach financial independence faster, Cory thinks this is the main path other than building up a business ourselves if we have the right attributes.

This year is especially good for dividend investors due to Cory thinks are the building up of wealth after property curbs and the money printing world wide. Money has to go some where and they end up in stock markets. However this class of investors look for safe investment and REITs and Bonds are quickly identified with.

We know what happens to Risky bonds, and investors learned some big lessons from Hyflux and Swiber that yield is not the primary. Within the REITs universe there is different classes of them too. Again some investors will have to pay school fees if they think all REITs are the same and are only along the line of yields only.

Some REITs are US denominated and from limited experience in US market, is better for Cory to leave this class alone. Life is much more simpler to layman Cory. 


Property

One thing Cory learned from his Condo, is location. The $psf shoots up after Top.  Leverage to the max as the loan is cheapest. So Cory has more cash to deploy elsewhere but not to spend ! Age matters. Young people can maximum their loan period. Condo maintenance very high ... but renovation is cheap as most is already build-up. At the end of the day, is nice to have a shelter over his head. Maybe Cory needs a bigger head now as he finds his Condo too small.


Philosophy

So what is Cory investment philosophy. Simple lah. Don't lose money. 

If we have studied solid "Blue Chip" REITs, the price fluctuations can be quite significant. This may convince some investors that timing matters. While Cory do not disagree to it, what matter is how can to execute them. For example this year REIT returns easily come in with 20% returns. Is a GFC impact to those who stays out in a single year alone create by oneself ! Will the price correct ? Why not. But to hold on to our investment or to re-balance them is another Cory article. A good problem to have.

The mindset for REITs investment is to think it as cash flow. Say 5% yield of initial capital returns. Stock price will fluctuates. Looks for those that can grow. Doesn't matter whether is 0% or 10%. They can be apportion into the portfolio accordingly to risk levels but they all have to be solid REITs and not those that sponsors dumped, mismanaged or have integrity issues. Most importantly the business behinds this REITs are solid or not, and that can build value over time.

Lastly, performance is DPU + Capital Value. How they play around it, we value them appropriately.


Happy Reading and Belated Happy Deepavali 2019 ... sorry ... started to write this piece on that day ... so busy this week.


Cory
2019-1030