Cory : Singtel

Realistically speaking I agree with Singtel that there is no need for 4th Telco in SG. The reason is pretty straight forward. Neither M1 nor Starhub are credible competitors to Singtel. So what makes us think an addition of 4th or even 5th will helps bring competition to the table ?

If Singtel want to gobble up the whole SG market, they actually can if we truly believe in free market logic. Singtel wouldn't unless they prepare to face the wreath of the regulator and residence. Their strategy will be such as to secure just enough market share while the rest fight among themselves for the remainder. And that's what will happen when the 4th comes in. Which is why the scenario is so bad for M1 and Starhub.

The market will then reach a new equilibrium, and rates will then slowly returns to norm. They can do a 5th or 6th ... it doesn't really matter to Singtel being a regional wide telco.

The above Logic make sense till TPG comes in later into the game. Having a strong FCF in the Australia Market, this pose a serious challenge to Singtel domination in Singapore. I can sense the Singtel CEO no longer smiling as she may have to battle TPG in both fronts. Nevertheless Singtel is still a huge force to reckon with considering TPG FCF could also be significantly dented if Optus do something.

One thing for sure, the journey is not going to be fun for M1 and Starhub.


Cory
20161219

Cory Diary : Work Performance 2016

FY 2016 is another challenging year. Investment can be in Equity but it can be in Work too. The later rewards are more sustaining and bulk of most people income. And the achievement is mentally fulfilling.

After surviving the last retrenchment exercise, I have to bring over another team into my fold who just lose their manager. There are few things in my mind.

Prevent attrition (knowledge loss) in the new team and Business continuity

The risk is real because I have seen entire group turn over with new management change. This can bring serious trouble to the organization and set back the team experience a decade and process broken.

One of my first task is to make sure I do not favor my existing over the new. In fact I went overboard to give them much more attention. I changed my management style to be more easy going and fun. I will talk to them about Pokemon Go and Fallout Shelter. Both are great games by the way.

When come to difficult conversation with employees, I put things in the right perspective and direction on the poor performers without stressing them mentally while achieving business goals. And when dealing with my new team i have all my cards open.

I initiated a separate weekly meeting to handhold the new team on every issue. And provide guidance and discussion. Politics smoked out. Trust driven in.  A+ for that.

Cross Training within teams to support process alignment and efficiency

Not only I have greater responsibility but I have to deal with a smaller combined team strength by 25%. The only recourse is to drive for process alignment and simplification.

And to do it in the short time, I depends greatly on my existing senior employees to train and guide the new team members. They helped me a lot but this also drive some mistrust and ego with the new members later. I have to slowly phased the helps out once we have achieved the necessary goals. Is a B- ...

Continue the success of my existing team

At the same time the existing team bandwidth were tighten due to it and needing others members to step up and ensure performance continuity. One of my key employee left the team for career advancement which I am happy for her but she also left a hole behind to be filled. I have been working with each of my team member on their development and experiences continuously. Happy to say at the critical juncture everyone step-up to do their best especially those whom I have never expected.  This is an A.

For all of that, I am rewarded with a small adjustment and better bonus this year. There will be people glaring at this but this is not the top most in my mind. It was the RECOGNITION statements that i have been given on what my team have achieved that I feel is important. And that's how my FY 2016 ended.

I am honored to have this team. All my investment in them paid off. My wish for FY2017 is I can play a part for the team the same.

Cory

20161215

Cory Diary : When higher Dividend has a Price

Just when I thought 2016 will be the year my Dividend will finally dipped since embarking on dividend strategy, year-to-date I have hit another all time high (updated for privacy) . So what happened ?

Thanks, but not thanks, due to "anticipated" Neretal special dividend of 15 cents but with more than 20 cents dent to the Share price after ... a heavy price to pay for indeed if you are someone who has been tracking this counter. Is definitely not a Saizen. And I am not pleased.

If anyone think that dividend strategy does not work locally, think again. (updated for privacy).

Will I be able to maintain this new level of dividend next year ? Probably considering my portfolio is still not optimise. Still some work to do. Another is the high cash level which I have been deliberating on to use. Quite an amount in foreign currency which has hedge S$ currency weakness.

Good news for this two weeks will be my income currency has appreciated 8% relative to Singapore dollars. The bad news is that the rate is dynamic and many of my assets are Singapore dollar denominated including loans.But then interests rate is moving up. And my portfolio is muted towards the Trump Rally to my dismay. One good thing out of it is that our labour cost reduced by 8%. And property in relative terms has become cheaper by 8% too. This is really good for Singapore reeling from high cost of labours and property prices.

Talking about interests rate. Reits got skinned recently and I dipped for some. So glad to be back in the 6%-10% yield range. In the Telco front is a slaughter.I have avoided Starhub and M1 specifically for the past year. Singtel I feel is ok because whatever go down likely will come back up. It is more sentiment for a diversified and strong counter. Will there be special dividend after coming one ? oh no ...hope not another Neratel. There has been huge outflow of money from developing world back to America pushing the DJIA to another high. I would be prepared for the tide returning.

What's more ?

Busy weeks on travel. America is still a land of plenty, and waste. Consumer market rule.
Salary and Bonus assessment period. :)

Cory
20161125