Apr 19, 2016

Cory Diary : Dividend Investing ( DPU - Dividend Per Unit )

Done some home work last weekend on Soilbuild Business Space Reit. Quick glanced through many of the quarterly reports while trying to decipher the recent results given by a few bloggers. Reason i am working on this is because of it's high dividend yield and past quarters stability.

There is mention about increasing absolute income for distribution and the annualized dividend is up.
Occupancy fell and the current DPU is down 4.7%.

I did found there's a a share placement prior year for a property resulting the total units differ between the two reported quarters. To get us into the right perspective before we all confuse ourselves with the numbers. We are talking about performance between 1Q FY16 and 1Q FY15.

Income for Distribution
Increasing income by itself is meaningless as this can be due to acquisition and when broken down to per unit, is what's matter. If there is share placement or rights issue, this will reflect as well in appropriate time frame.

Annualized Dividends
Annualized dividends is quite misleading too by itself because it's inherently tie to the share price taken from specific time or period. And a reducing share price can significantly push the yield up. In a deteriorating business environment, the capital loss can be so significant that long period of dividends could not make up for it.

Table - Lease Expiry

















Finding of Interests

1. Between 1QFY16 to 1QY15: Unit increased by 15%
    Mainly due to private placement and some draw down for property acquisition

2. If we take DPU 1.633 cent of 1QFY15 and after acquiring the new property of which rental
    contribution is $7,870,000 annually. How much will it contributes quarterly to it ?

To simplify my calculation, assume minimal increase in loan cost since is mainly private placement.
And using the 1Q16 increased units as a base calculation, the formula will be
= 100*(7870000/4)/938010400 = 0.21 cents contribution to 1QFY16.

Without the property acquired, the distribution income of 1QFY15 contributed 1.42 cents to 1QFY16 assuming everything equal. This is also assuming increased units are solely due to the private placement which is likely not but for this exercise.

Adding both values we will get around 1.63 cents which is what we should expects assuming business stays level for 1QFY16. However DPU fell by 4.7% and this is on the back of 2% lower occupancy (from 96.8% to 94.8%). With more leases up this year and next (table above of 2016 and 2017 shown only) there will likely be continue impact.


Cory
20160419







Apr 13, 2016

Cory Diary : NetWorth Logic


One of the most contentious argument in deriving Net Worth and skew most of our calculation is the Property and Loan, simply is the biggest ticket item for most people.

Let's use a scenario to prick the logic. If a multi-millionaire has a 5 Million apartment and has a monthly balance of zero after loan and spending whereas a 5K salary man owning a HDB with also outstanding loan has a saving of 100K. Does it make sense to say the HDB man has higher networth than a man who has a 5 Million apartment who has zero saving ?

The best way to know is not whether we need to service the loan or not. Or who has higher saving. To know net positive or negative, I would get the market value of the property and minus all the outstanding loans. Property Market value may change, so does your Net Worth. We are just reflecting Reality of it. That's the whole idea.

An asset is an asset. Net Worth is not about creating buffer, safety zone, principle, financial planning, living standard or whatsoever. It is what it is.


Cory
20160413

Apr 11, 2016

Cory Diary : Macro-nomics - Where is my "Do" ?

Let face the fact, if one is able to get the macro picture just a step or two ahead, relatively consistent, he would probably be advising some political heads. And he won't be sitting here typing on his personal blog.


However is a good exercise for investor to at least know what the hell is going on with the world. And how the macro conditions impact his investment thereby devising a broader strategic plan rather than micro level investment decision to mitigate the impact and hopefully take advantage of it.


For a start I will take a broad look on 10 year STI chart. Why not max, 5 or 1 year chart. Just believe me lor lol. Ok ! The chart fits better to the human manageable level of cross over for myself. Does't mean is factual or agreed by experts. Is just me ! me !





Looks at the chart with the circle mark. Just didn't cut it right ? Hold my cash tight tight ? make sense ? If it does cut, this make the music complete ?! ( Do Re Mi Fa So La Ti Do) perfect time to add, 'tio bo" ? Joking lah.

If the green green line go further down instead, together with the red, oh oh. So let's pray hard no major negative news for this coming weeks lor.


Cory
20160411