Cory Diary : Portfolio updates 20151226

Seems nothing is safe out there. And things hanging over likely be China Stock Over Valuation and Singapore Growths. The 3 local big banks have seen dramatic price reduction in the range of -20 to -25% despite good overall earning. That's a crash isn't it ? Even the Telco is not spared ranging -20% to -30%. M1 more on the 4th Telecom impact.

Idle Ships

If we are thinking this is all about stock price or employment rate then we need to look and get a feel on the ground. Tell these to those vested in Property, Oil and Gas, Commodity, S-Chip, Shipping counters and things are much much worst than STI indicated -15%.

And then on the job front, there are folks that are't looking for jobs or just retrenched. A gathering recently of old university mates happen to have 3 couples with their mates or themselves out of jobs. And their the other half's either in not so well paid job or stressed for job change. Don't believe ? Talk to those highly qualified taxi driver and you will understand the loss of knowledge and experience to the industry. Are their jobs gone for good ?

Matter of time, i think the Gov will have to start loosening the foreign migrants intake to lessen the manufacturing blow. Non-Essential Property curbs on the developers. What else ? Likely weaker S$. They probably just need one more bad news to stir the ground before they have to act without damaging the votes.

This month i add some positions into Banks and new cash into Bonds. Sold M1. Sounds more like re-balancing before the year ended as things may have to get worst before it gets better. I Wish not.

Merry Christmas

Cory

20151226

Cory Diary : Portfolio update 20151012

If someone has said in the beginning of the year that China will be the main reason that STI enters correction territory it will be quite hard to accept. Such is the market dynamic. Hard to anticipate even for expert.

Is the correction over with recent days run up ? Well just looking at the 1 yr and 2 yr charts, seems so. However 5 yr and 10 yr charts are yet confirm. That's my own view. Time will tell !

My portfolio ytd went down -5% at the worst period and recovered to -2.6%. STI still at -10% today.
Relative wise i am doing ok but i could have done much better if i have cut loss faster as said in my earlier article.

For those data craze, Equity at 37%. Cash/FD 39%, Structured Investment/Bond 11% and others.
China could have cause another major crisis. It didn't so far. Else i could have tap my war fund.

Decided to sell Saizen Reit as i feel the Japanese yen will continue it's weakening mid term and this gives me some anxiety despite all those hedging in place. Hope to find a replacement soon. Still holding to some Starhub shares though no increase. I feel the impact of 4th Telco will be mitigated by immigration long term.

I sleep well with current portfolio set up and that's all matter. cheers.


Cory 20151012

Cory Diary : Traps to Avoid

Portfolio Management


Land Mine  ( 地雷 )

As the name feared, the misfortune of stepping on one is terrible. Will likely to have a limp blown off. A dent that is not easy to recover from. In stock context probably -50% to complete loss in a counter and depending on it's size in the portfolio it can be quite damaging to my overall returns.

The fewer stocks I have in my portfolio, the higher my concentration. Too many stocks and i will exceed my bandwidth to monitor them.


Growth Stocks  ( 成长股 )

High PE typically. To maintain this story the growth needs to be there to sustain. Below expectation news or even loss may have double blows to the stock price. When I foresee possible slower growth in the future is it time to take something off the table.

This can also be terminated early due to pump and dump situation enacted by syndicate. A syndicate can comprise of business news editor, analyst, broker, banker, insider, forum/blog manipulator and speculators. They will use means to push up stock with convincing storyline after securing sizeable position.


Doubling Down  ( 双倍下注 )

Can also include averaging down or similar methods. Some people has the concoction that stock price fluctuates within a fixed band. That stock works like newton theory. While so far it works for DJIA / STI Indexes over medium-long period and higher, company stock can go to zero value or stay low for life.

If the mindset is like gambling, this can be dangerous. Stock market is a place where price can be manipulated or influenced. The future of the company lies with the touch of people that manages it. Therefore bias. Thus, the outcome can be worst than going to casino to gamble.

Few of the traits i seen on successful turnaround is change of management (competent), was hit by black swan event, due to bad market sentiment, have management integrity and having strong moat.


Dividends  ( 分红 )

Ability to generate cash flow to reward shareholder is a good indication on the health of the company to most layman. Be careful if company issues rights, borrow more or cash calls that exceed returns. At the same time keep watch on potential capital loss if any that may negates many years of dividend.


Market Trend  ( 市场走势 )

Going against market trend can be mind blowing to my portfolio negatively. When a particular industry is in possible down trend for a long period, will it better to re-balance my portfolio ? Some people can spot the gem against the tide. Good for them. That's my bonus.

I can do the maths on it. Some stock gives good cash flow and i maybe ok to hold if is medium term. However if the business change is more fundamental maybe I need to change.


Cory 20150829