Cory Diary: Property

Visited a show room recently so thought i pen something to share from my learning. Elsewhere maybe different as i am no property expert. Read this as my personal thought talking to myself and not advise.

Room Size

The show room units are truly well designed. Is a promise of future living. However rooms are really small if you are "HDB type". And if you plan to wait longer so that it can grow bigger in future, we may need to accept it that is not going to happen even if price gets significantly lower.

Decoration

Kitchen, Flooring, Air Con, Toilet, Doors are all done up. The lights are excluded. Conceit piping/wirings.

Fridge and Washing/Dryer machine provided. There is a glass section through the kitchen.

If i am to value it, maybe 100k effort max.

Facilities

Is quite huge. In fact, 2/3 of the land mass. The "public area" looks beautiful. So only 1/3 is unit space. So unlike HDB, the common area in private condo is really private. So you have to pay for it which will works into the unit price.

Unit Price

Unless you go for investment, 2 Bed Room (BR) is rather small for a family. For the 3BR, easily hit S$1.1 M price tag for well located unit and good project location like this one i have visited. That's kind of high i thought but not after i do the maths.

From the forum information, the land was bided $1077 psf ppr. The unit on average were sold $1300 which doesn't add up as per analyst this will put the developer selling the unit sightly below cost. Well businessman do this for reason i think.

Strategy

1. Integrated Strategy/Strategic reasons - Meaning they can earn from malls and to protect their market share and margins.

TDSR and 80% 1st Home loan

2. Is the demand affordability due to TDSR and 80% max loan limits. The person who thought of this is ingenious.

Here's why. If we target household who are employed, Median household income S$8300. Max loan allowed is about 5K monthly payment using rough estimation.This mean S$1.1M unit is already brink due to 80% loan max with 220K ( CPF+Cash ) for this example. All the figures can varies but the point is the concept that restrain the bull.

Thus the developer will have problem moving units if priced higher psf. Buyers are constrained by the 80% ratio, TDSR, CPF and available cash. In addition we have the ABSD that cap on PR and Foreign investors. For people look on 2nd property ... the hurdle is even higher ...

The unit area has to shrink some. This trend will be hard to change. Probably integrated development is the way to go for the future.

Cory

1st May 2015

Cory Diary: World of Warcraft (WOW) Online Economy

Every time when there's a major patch in the WOW game, there will be new contents, game play change, new crafting materials and more character levels. In addition, the currency in the game using Gold coins will suffer through significant Inflation Spikes.

After several rounds of patches (analogy to Economic Cycles), ones will learn the pain of inflation and the obsolescence of old materials used in crafting or consumption. Few facts in the game. There's aren't property and coins are virtual (not backed). The best way to beat inflation is to work to provide service by helping to beat Instance BOSS for players of new characters for weapons / equipments or improve our levels, develop new skills and produce new materials to trade. The enterprising ones will organise the service and do hard trades. Other than that is to convert most pre-patch materials to coins either through sales in auction before they become worthless. Cash is King !

In real life as time or technology progress, it will be home material decays/spoils/obsolete. Crude Oils and most Commodities don't go away other than Price Fluctuation but is not easy for most. Property do get old or lease shorten much but that's across a long period for you to manage it and subject to economic conditions and cash level. Entrepreneurs are few. For most, other than some fixed low returns and saving, our cash is subject to harsh inflation.

Well there are also alternative which is to continue to Work like in the game. But this may mean retirement at later age even if we are doing well and saved some money. 20-30 years down the road after your final pay check (several patches of the game), you will realised your purchasing power eroded significantly . Just ask yourself how much you pay for your bus ticket or a bowl of noodles 20 to 30 years ago. And soon you will be like your elders and complain things are expensive just like when i was in the game after every patch. I refused to buy this and that. And miss out some fun. Or go through the hard way to get them which may be a a lot more expensive process to do. We need to be at the forefront to actively tackle the issue before it becomes a problem especially so for those who like to retire early.

We know from the game, holding on to old things won't work well. Inflation is slippery slope.We need to keep learning and have the willingness to take on new things that suits us to stay ahead of the game.

My solution is to try to make Money from Money in real life which the game couldn't. To Save, Preserve and Grow our Capital. And for this, I have to Invest Prudently. I am not saying this is easy and risk is real but there simply not much alternatives for the old me. My Strength is Wisdom and Capital, so make use of them wisely.


Cory
26th April 2015

Cor Diary : Gold Metal

Recently i have been trying to simplify my investment yet achieve the stability and diversification needed.

Everything is up for review. Few things I did so far.

- Increased holding in STI ETF and Bond.

- Sold DBS Preference Shares.

- Sold significant portion of my USD and NTD

- Build up some cash by taking profit on a number of run up stocks

I could not find a suitable equity to re-balance into currently. Probably need to find an entry point some time later this year.

Another area i am looking at is metal. Gold has been in my portfolio for a couple of years already and since i last sold around 1700 ( half of them i guess ), it has only been routine value update on my overall net worth which constitutes roughly 1%+. Is there more for hedging when the World or Singapore go seriously wrong.

Inflation wise, i think property is already good at mitigation. I can't imagine myself taking sampan with gold to escape either. As my Gold is virtual, the transaction cost impact is low. Decided to sell all my Virtual Golds. They were held in USD and NTD. And i expect to have some forex gains too. Great ! Achieve another level of simplification.

What else ? hmmm

Cory

20th April 2015