Dec 17, 2014

Cory Diary : SEMBCORP IND

Oil ! Oil ! Oil! Crashed. Many people may have thank Saudi Arabia that we have an Oil Crisis except this time is for lower price. As a matter of fact, Shale Oil and Gas is the cause of main disruption with maturing technology that break OPEC monopoly who works in "cahoots" with few other key players that not always play fair.

Is there gem right now ? Let's me try to investigate SEMBCORP IND today.

Capital Gain
The worst SBI price is about 2.11 during 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is not. A lower oil price is good for the economy. We have 10 years of growth when oil price stays low. However it can be a nervous investment for the new investors who never see it for Oil Support Industry. The Monthly Chart indicate 4.0-4.1 range as resistance. And appears reached. Weekly Chart will be in the region of 3.89. Down side seems limited i guess but market sentiments are hardly predictable. Volume is weakening.

Dividend Yield
2014 declared dividend ~ 0.22. That's on the high side i feel. Let's MOS to 0.15.
3.5% yield roughly. That's 35k for a Million for a rather consistent performing counter.

Business Segment
This is not fly by night company.

Sembcorp Industries was incorporated in Singapore on 20 May 1998 to act as the 
holding company for the merger between Singapore Technologies Industries 
Corporation (STIC) and Sembawang Corporation. On 22 July 1998, it assumed its 
present name. The merger was effective on 3 October 1998.


i. Utilities


ii. Marine & Offshore Engineering
This business focuses principally on repair, building and conversion of ships 
and rigs, and offshore engineering.



iii. Environmental Management


iv. Industrial Parks

After Thoughts
Every crisis can be an opportunity. Will this be one of them ?
Long term with a back mirror will we regret ?
What's the down side ?
Can it be a long term hold and forget ?
Time to nibble slowly ?

Here's my novice notes today. Hope you like it. May we prospers till we go to dust.


Cory
17th Dec 2014


Dec 14, 2014

Cory Diary : SAIZEN REIT

In my quest for yield, a reit that caught my eye again is Saizen Reit. What's interesting is the recent softening of it's price due to the depreciation of the Yen mainly. 6 cents move is a year dividend ... oh a little pain..

Few questions come into my mind. Is there opportunity to gain/recover from this ?

Impact to S$ returns

"Hedged the distribution payments for the six-month financial period ending 31 December 2014 and for the six-month financial period ending 30 June 2015 at JPY81.9/S$ and JPY85.6/S$ respectively."

This hedging is rather important though not cheap. Looks like they did it well considering rate is about 91 currently. I do not see dividend issue for Mar'15.

Property Yield
About 1/4 of the portfolio in Sapporo: Prices known to increase in that area but Cap Rate maybe mute.

Age of the Reit properties are not young so i would perceive rental yield stable considering the net property income in last report shows slight decrease in JPY Q/Q not proportional to Revenue decrease.
S$- denominated bank balances help a little from the Warrant proceeds leftover.

Trend
Revenue has been decreasing about 2% quarterly. Operating expenses increased slightly from the net property income of lQ'15 report.

"The decrease in gross revenue was due mainly to a year-on-year decrease in occupancy rates."

Leverage Potential
Ability to access low fixed loan rate is a plus for higher leverage considering their returns are relatively stable.

Moving Forward
One thing to watch is the the weekend election and what this means to Saizen. Abe wins mean more weakening of the Yen therefore more hedging needed. Delay in consumption tax hike is good news.


Cory
14th Dec 2014



Dec 7, 2014

Cory Diary : STI Index

If you have yet notice, STI Index ended this week 3324.39. STI Jan 1st Jan'14 was 3167.430. That's mean about 5% returns. If we include roughly 3% dividends conservatively, that's 8% for 2014. This is despite of Current Oil Bear, Interest Rates going up, Property Curbs and Commodity Crash.

Quite amazing huh ? Do your math and tell me am I right ? So why ? why ? why ? why ?Maybe is the Singapore Story or thanks to the liquidity.

How many of us can beat that on annualized basis ?
Are your Unit Trusts beating this values. What do you think ?
How about those who put your money with Private Fund Managers after cost ?  How do they perform ?
Do you have concern with scam or time bomb ?

Things i like about STI Index so far is as follow

1. No rights issue
2. Reasonable Dividends ( Cover Core Inflation )
3. Capital Gains annualized results are strong ( Cover Inflation )
4. Low management fee
5. No manager risk
6. Transparent Tracker
7. Singapore Dollar
8. Participate in Singapore Key Industries
9. Risk Spread across companies
10. Do not need active management
11. Do not need a lot of money to invest


Cory
7th Dec 2014