Cory Diary : Performance Nov'20

In my earlier blogging which I mentioned that it is better for me to be in the Green than to widen the lead against STI with Portfolio still in the Red. And my wishes is awarded as such by end of October. The gap final close down to 15.7% which reflects remarkable STI returns within a short span of time cutting it losses just below 13% and probably single digit after dividends. My portfolio returns almost 2.8% in the black on the last day of the month.

If we look how the year started with Covid-19 and how the bleak the situation is, many people would be surprised that we could end in the black for STI. Nothing impossible. We shall see how it performs in Dec. Currently, after a good run, there is some correction.

 

What is hindering STI is probably Vaccines solutions in which countries are rushing them out in record time. The damage to the economy specifically to the Airlines are long term even if the economy recovers. I am also a little reluctant on Hospitality as they will need to do much more to repair their balance sheets. I would think some how we need to price in Virus risk into their stock price.

As for the laggards, Retail Malls which are quite cheap for those that support daily necessity. So this are ones which I am positioning. Others possible contenders will be SBS Transit, SATS and ST Eng. There is some trading play on the Banks but it will remains a key stake as I have emptied my STI ETF.

There are also a few others like MLT and MIT which I decided to KIV unless they comes down enough to improve their yield. I really likely to own them but the situation has to be right. Maybe I will kickstart with small positions if there is further reduction in their prices as AGT has make it way out of the portfolio after the 2nd tranche has been distributed.

Lastly I am tempted to return to Sheng Siong .... except that valuation is not cheap. Perhaps I need to be more patience. 

Cory

2020-1202

Cory Diary : Singapore Market 400 points climb - 人算不如天算: Man Proposes but God Disposes

Man Proposes but God Disposes

When I post on 31st Oct, on Wash my cards, basically as I said " The goal is to protect capital, maximise dividend, risk adjusted." The market looks like going for another deep dive like in March 2020. Therefore the learning will be how to mitigate the situation. The main change is  removal of STI ETF due to expected lower yield coming distribution because of banking segment dividends have been restrained.  And a few counters. However most the portfolio I was prepared to go with the swing and considering the amount of cash raised that can be quickly put to pick Durians. LOL

On exactly the next week trading day, STI ETF starts it maiden climb. Roughly 400 points !

In Cory Portfolio, the swing is $88K from negative loss to positive returns. What-if STI has stayed in the game ? About $11k additional gains. However during this period , I have put some of cash  into Vicom and a few counter changes which help to alleviate few K returns. So in total the mitigation cost me probably 6 to 8K of returns. I would have hit a few more if manage to buy SPH in time which I was about to prior yesterday .... omg ... the rise is crazy ... to my frustration.

So here we are with higher yield dividend portfolio but slightly lesser net returns from past 3 weeks. What notably is the STI pace may not be always align with the banks so is broad based economy that the market was pushed higher into. This is rare in recent times and I am not sure it that a new direction which big money is buying into a broad index concept. Nevertheless the gap is now much smaller in the range of 15% against Cory Portfolio. I am still happy as I rather to be in positive than winning STI huge but with negative returns.

Singapore broad economy is still weak while Japan and HK go into another Covid spins. So a pull back is possibility from the capital flow injection which is blunt imo. Nevertheless I will rather take a 3% Positive returns anytime for the portfolio. Staying vested in market in sizeable manners help me this time again though I still find it could have been better to me ......

Cheers

Cory

2020-1121

Cory Diary : CPF Life - FRS or ERS

Some period ago I have decided Basic Plan is the way to go considering my age and investment portfolio I have that choosing moderation will be preferred. What I did not mentioned is should I default FRS or go for ERS. And in this article we will try to find out.

" For members who turn 55 in 2020, their Basic Retirement Sum (BRS), Full Retirement Sum (FRS) and Enhanced Retirement Sum (ERS) are $90,500, $181,000 and $271,500  respectively."

To hit ERS, I need additional $90,500. So basically multiples 1.5x of FRS.  Let's use FRS to see the returns.

Current FRS = $181, 000

Current Basic Plan : $1,272 - $1,404 starting at Age 65

Take note the Basic Plan payout is based on below notes form CPF through CPF Life Estimator Calculator.

"The monthly payouts, total payout received, and bequest amounts shown are estimated based on the Retirement Account balance provided, current CPF interest rates, and current mortality assumptions. They may differ from the actual figures. The displayed ranges are based on interest rates between 3.75% and 4.25%, and do not represent the lower and upper limits of the payouts"

Let's say lifespan of 80. (updated chart to correct year error)

Counted slightly more using 1st Jan for Bequest. Roughly XIRR of 4.4 %. Is that of any surprise to you all ? Do note that for worst case is 4%.

One thing to add, if you manage to live to Age 99, XIRR will be 4.9% which is investment returns equivalent of 4.9% for best case.

Should I go ERS ? Maybe I can do Top-Up after 55 to decide. CPF is more like a reasonable good safe harbor in case I become senile.... :)

Again DYODD as we explore the journey.

Cory

2020-1117