Cory Diary : Trading Log 2020-0925

Long time since I last post on Trading Log. In my portfolio when I last did on this log series, I venture a bit far on the risk side for higher dividends. So sometimes I get a little nervous. Next is my build-up in SGX has pulled off in Diary of Trading Log 2020-0814. Often act as counter balance to down trend stocks.

Accordia Trust

As earlier articles, I have reduced my position 40% on this. Is still sizeable but I no longer in "fear mode" :P .  AGT is Golf Trust nevertheless with "sibei" good dividends as we wait for the final offer that since arrived. And soon it will be Ex-dividend and then finally delisted. Good returns and not bad for a stock I know so long and suffer the mental rides of the prices this year as position grew.

Ascendas Reit

Continue to build up on this position which I have cleared some time back. I am waiting for a big gap down if any before willing to average down else I will leave my cash in War chest. At around 4.5% yield, this is one counter I can afford to hold for long term and sleep well. Not sure why but I feel the last dividend seems a little low. Is it just me for an accretive deal to be given a reason that there is now more shares in the market from the last acquisition to have lower DPU ? Interesting to know.

IReit Global

I have decided to take profit 80% (CDP) with remaining 20% remains with another broker for the rights issue. I could use this to try out custodian broker for rights issue and learn something from it.

This sales put a large dent in my dividend returns so I am still in the work on mitigation mode before Year 2020 ends. The concern with this counter is the rights issue is discounted so much that I feel the management has taken investors for a ride. Furthermore the Spanish investment doesn't seem a good deal. I miss the previous CEO. I may still find opportunity to increase my position after as the they will have another chance but just smaller chance in my portfolio. Need to remind myself credibility is very important.

Mapletree Com Tr

Manage to build up some positions past few months. So now we have driven a gap of capital profits. I am still considering whether it worth to expand the allocation. This is Quality Reit in my opinion so unlikely will sell any in mid-long term. Is not everyday we can secure a position in the famous Reits at good price. So hold tight tight ....

Cromwell Reit

When it first listed I am pretty negative on the reit. I still do not have full trust in it. However it has dual currency denomination listed which I want and also act as a hedge being mainly listed in Europe. Small position so far.

With all this, I end up with much more net cash position for War Chest build up at lower theoretical dividend of-course.

Cory

2020-0925

Cory Diary : Feeling stuck in current Portfolio growth momentum

This post stuck with me for weeks in draft mode before I have the courage to release it. Reason being I feel stuck in current portfolio setup. This is finally released when iReit Global release the rights issue today. Read on ...

For the past few weeks, I was wishing to squeeze more juices ( cash ) out of my portfolio lately but feeling quite difficult. On one hand I need to watch for dividend returns and the other holding to some core positions that I don't want to sell. However with current listless market in SG and turmoil in US Market, there maybe opportunity for some low hanging fruit pickings if we are to see major tech correction happening which may pull the whole market along.

Still in Transition Chart

In-addition, the lines blurred between what can be use for investment aka War Chest and what is Reserve for Emergency or other needs. Therefore I decided to create a segment called Investment accounts. This will be my War Chest which is also primarily cash holding area for stocks sold as they are separate accounts from saving. In POEMS account situation, it is also Money Market Fund therefore not idle in returns. Above is still in the work. Here's previous update ( link ).

With this iron out, is clear to me what I can do with each accounts.

Saving and Fixed Deposits

I could explore some of my fixed deposits and see which I can terminate earlier now. After reviewing the 4 batches I have with DBS Bank, one of them expect to expire next month. Remainder on Year 2021. Since there is a large one near expiry, i will wait it out. This will release some funds. 

In-addition, I also have some cash saving in foreign accounts and some amount will be moved to investment accounts. 

Reprice my Housing Loan

Just found out the deal today. Is quite a significant downward adjustment by DBS. Other than the lowering interest rate another reason I suspect is the coming competition of Digital Banking. Not surprisingly the lock-in period extend to 5 years but the fixed package is attractive now with flexi after. This do gives peace of mind for years to come.

The downside is that FHR24 after 5 years can be tricky as such a long period usually drives higher rates even though currently is lowered. I guess mitigated by one free conversion. Overall this will reduce my monthly repayment loan some but won't see a sudden cash saving. However the cash reserves need to support this loan will be reduced quite drastically as I have more than 5 years of emergency funds currently parked for it in SSB, Cash and Fixed Deposits.

DBS just told me i need to wait a few more months more before I could re-price as the penalty for breaking current loan contract is high. I will wait out as is not pro-rated. Expects to Save $333 monthly or $3996 annually !

 

CPF

I borrowed a little money from my own CPF account that time to give myself a slightly larger boost in cash flow when I purchase my investment property. The more i look at it especially at current low interest rate, the more I feel the decision is bad as the Accrued Interest i need to pay back is growing as the cost is widening. I should return the borrowed back to my own account. It doesn't make sense for me to earn fixed deposit of less than 1% and need to pay back 2.5% to CPF Account. And if I have to  shift the returned money to SA account, the cost is even wider ! What am I waiting for ..... . Ok need to work on clearing it. Maybe 10k at a time till zero. First I need to get my eNets working ...

CASH LEVEL

On conservative level, I am able to generate about $58k ( comes down to 53.5k after some iReit Sales ) of dividends and with the additional $4k contribution from SSB will then totaled $62k (57.5k). SSB is where I reserve for housing loan, with current dividends, I reckon there is no need to have too high a bond allocation now. Hence I plan to reduce my Fixed deposit and Cash level amount instead since SSB provide better rates.

Dividend Re-Investing

Usually i don't specially manage the reinvestment of dividend received. It will just go into my saving pool and manage as portfolio injection. So is opportunity based. I will be slowing down my procurement and keep most of the juices in Investment accounts.

Child Development Account

Just top up $6k through account transfer recently. However only the first 3K will be matched.  For POSB CDA, up to the first $50k will enjoy 2% Interest rates. So currently she has at least 12k after Baby Bonus Matching and initial 3k grants.  There are restriction of use so this cannot be classify as emergency fund. Unused sum will continue to progress to different level of account as the child grows. So is a long term thing but the rate will change. Something to note of. In-addition I have propose to my wife on possible CPF top-up for the kids as she is wanting for some form of saving for them.

Cory

2020-0922

Cory Diary : STI Index that I understand ...

STI Index is Straits Times Index

The Straits Times Index (STI) is a market capitalisation weighted index that tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on SGX. It is jointly calculated by Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), Singapore Exchange (SGX) and FTSE Group (FTSE).

What this mean is when you buy ETF shares of this Index, you have exposure to this 30 companies. Below table obtained from SG Investor link here.

The Index regularly updated with new companies which replaced some companies in the index. Recent times, the Index has not been doing well. One of the reason I feel is lack of Tech stocks that we see in NASDAQ while Covid-19 do it's work on traditional companies. Another reason is that the process of company selection is not as fast as I feel it should. For example strong Reits comes in after they have risen much for years before they get to replace companies that should have been replaced long ago. Restricting to only 30 companies may have some constraints. Finally the last spanner  is the dividend restriction on the 3 main banks in the index which dampen the market further on STI Index.

Theoretically, the ETF of the index will be kind of perpetual. So I find this quite passive in management as there is no expiry or right issue in my experience. The more diversification nature also protect investor from significant losses as is mitigated by poor performance of a few.  The STI ETF I often use is ES3. To trade, the stock quote is ES3. At current time,  in my personal view rather than long term hold, ETF is more good for Timing Trade on lows such as down trend or when is tuning up. STI ETF shares are traded like any other equity. Last Friday it closed at $2.527. So for 1000 shares will be $2,527. 

Lastly, this ETF do give dividends. Usually Feb and August periods. In comparison to Reits, the yield is lower however the risk is that one could hit with EHT or Sabana ... and have your portfolio blow up. One don't view the risk high till really got hit. Nothing is free in this world .... maybe except fatherly (bias) loves.

Cheers                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Cory

2020-0920

Cory Diary : Subconscious Thought

When Trump got elected the first time he really do not have much backing from Media or even his own party members initially. He fought through nomination before winning the presidential election. So his win is quite historical considering he is up against Hillary Clinton who has Obama, Nancy and many supporters that we thought it is a walkover considering Trump has so much bad press from foul language to dirty talk. If one is to read through the forum or media, hardly many people supported him. Now with next term coming up for election, his relationship with the press or media is at it lowest still but personally I feel he will be re-elected again.

Why I say so is because many supporters of his afraid of being identify with him publicly. The intense pressure or fear is so great most will vote with their feat in secret of their view because many of his views are very controversial but is deep seated with many Americans. This is best summarize of Jim Cramer interview that is now famous.

Extract...

“What deal can we have, Crazy Nancy,” Cramer said before catching himself. "That was the president, I have such reverence for the office I would never use that term."

“But you just did,” Pelosi shot back.

“You know what I mean, the reverence I have for the office is so great that I think it’s a travesty to ever call, look, you’re,” Cramer, seemingly aware he made a major gaffe, said before Pelosi interrupted.

Pelosi said, "I know what you mean,"

I think Poor Jim knew he has sub-consciously stepped on the Mine and were trying to crawl back. Is a career ending move. Even though he apologized profusely during and after, the very act he do this make it even harder to swallow for Nancy who probably trying to put up a brave face. 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnbcs-jim-cramer-apologizes-after-calling-pelosi-crazy-nancy-during-live-interview

Learned a new word today. Is called Pandering.

Cory

2020-0917

Cory Diary : Hyper Inflation Thoughts

Hyper-Inflation is when prices of goods rocketed so high that our saving in the banks has it's purchasing purchasing power deteriorate exponentially. A cup of coffee costing $1.20 today may cost $5 tomorrow. And probably $100 by end of the week. As you can see, basically our saving got burnt through like toilet paper literally.

So for folks out there who's complaining about inflation that a cup of Kopi that only cost $0.40 more than 20 years ago, compounded across 20 years is actually only 5.6%. This is not really a big deal considering this is small price item relative to our salary even though it may not enjoy same amount of rise in percentage. So we see nothing yet on what Hyper-Inflation can really do to our cost of living But it can happen if our country is mismanaged.

One of my kiasi theoretical thought is what-if we have a Hyper-Inflation or something that is large enough which are of concern. To clarify I aren't anticipating one but at the same time we can't guaranteed it won't happen in our lifetime. Say we decided to migrate to a less developed country where the financial management may not be as robust.

In the olden days probably from recent major wars to more than thousand of years ago, people will probably keep physical gold. In modern time, physical Gold is still quite relevant but I feel that we have much better option today than in the past to have too much gold or silver in our home.

First thing I would ensure is to have a property under my name. Basically it will just hedge through the increasing cost and I will still have a roof over my head with no escalating rental worries. The interesting thought process will be what happen to our housing loan while Hyper-Inflation do it's work ? Right, if you think as cunning as me, our payments to the bank will be drastically reduced in purchasing power term so it works wonder to have loan.

However, if the contract allows the banks to adjust the payment rate terms, we could also be receiving revision of interest rates at exponential level too ! Regardless the Gov will step in too to ensure the banking system remains sound. What this mean is the banks will still Win. This could mean the outstanding loan will be re-stated and we may be even larger hole after.

Secondly I would do better is to ensure I have stocks. This do well when inflation is moderate but in Hyper-Inflation scenario, any loans could also put the companies in big trouble as the loan could also be re-stated destroying shareholder values. So just with this two cases, if we are expose to country specific risk, then we will do well with diversification.

If we try to deduce and stay ahead in the game, don't face the Hyper-Inflation at all. Is not a game we can afford to play. If we have to go through it. No loans. Have foreign bank account and currency exchange and remit process tried. Maybe this will work ?

Cory

2020-0913

Cory Diary : Net Worth - Fighting Mode

Generally Year 2020 has been quite trying for people who try to increase their net worth. 

I would expect many people pay reduced, on unpaid leave, retrenched, mute property and likely poor equity investment returns, 

This is particularly true for me because we have added expenses for additional member in the team. In Year 2019 I have estimated at least 140K expense which includes Home Loan that is well supported by investment returns.

For Year 2020 I don't think we deviate much expense wise however I am glad that she has chip in to help support baby clothing, shoes, Nappies, Toys, books, baby powders and food supplies. Dual income is so cool in bad times.

Here's the Net Worth chart. I won't go through the details.

Looks like the expense has not damaged the lines and able to hold-off so far. Rumor has it that we may not have increment and bonus this year so if that's the case we won't see a slight spike later on. Frankly speaking 2nd half could see better market condition.

There are a few new expenses this year.

The hot weather did add one addiction which is ice dessert. And I am getting a kick out of it recently. Hopefully this aren't permanent .... ... ... before the sweetness get my health.

$2 Serving

Have been using hotspot for a long time. With WFH in great play this year, Home Internet connection will be better serve but nevertheless an added expense.

Cory

2020-0822

Cory Diary : Aug Performance '20

Is already Mid-Aug and I was pondering whether to do a performance tracker update. The reason I did not do one early part of the month because I knew the coming price adjustment with Accordia Golf Trust and I am also in the process of mitigating the dividend income loss from the Golf Course sales. So with the news more or less definite near term and coming up with a plan on driving returns the chart may returns.

As below Chart, the gap widens to 19.1% against STI Index. I think one partial reason is due to ETF dividend just distributed. Cory returns -1%. Theoretical fund annual dividend has come down to 59k Covid returns.

Chart : Returns Comparison

As the yield gets lower with recovering market, new fund injection has to work much harder for the same dollar amount. However I need to compensate the dividend loss from AGT, and that's easier said than done. For one I try to avoid USD denominated counters as I find it a hassle which Reits are driving higher yields. Then I have enough banks exposures so any increase will be over allocation percentage. I also have same issue with increasing my stake in CMT.

There are few things I could do now.

1.    Increase my fund injection to drive higher dividends

2.    Re-balance my STI Index ETF to something else of higher yield.

3.    Not renew my Fixed Deposits that expired

4.    Reduce my cash holdings

5.    Exchange my foreign fixed deposits to local currency

I hope to do all above partially in measured ways.

Cory

2020-0818

Cory Diary : Trillions Dollars Printing - So What ?

Have we ever wonder why we don't see Zimbabwe 2.0 happening in America after Trillions Dollars printing ? Is another few Trillions going to matter ?

I think all below factors and which reinforce each other.

• Demand and Supply
• Export / Import - Trade
• Goods and Services
• Property and Financial Investments
• Saving and CPI Index
• Trade, Military and Infrastructure investments
• Confidence

Using myself as an example. I still earn my keep, invest my money, pay my loans, continue to save, do my banking and shop in super markets. All this are happening all over the country.

If I feel money is going to be worth much much less tomorrow, where there aren't much goods in the super market, people doing bank runs, hardly any economic activities, companies are emptying out, then I worry .....

What should I hold on ? Property, Gold, USD ?, Shares ? , .... 

For now, even if we add another 100k or another Million into my asset, my spending pattern not going to change much. Is either saved or put into work. So how to drive hyperinflation ?

Cory

2020-0817

Cory Diary : Trading Log 2020-0814

Due to Work-From-Home, Trading has increased despite very busy hours with my new born as I will managed time in-between caring for her as a relaxation instead of sleep. I will need to change this before sleeplessness becomes a norm.

SGX

Over months I have built-up a position in this counter after the large drop due to MSCI discontinuation. My thoughts is that this is financial, exchange, digital and Covid Proof. And the market over-reacted. Considering the situation in Hong Kong right now, I think MSCI moves probably not so good politically.

Below is the new interface of SGX Portfolio page. This is good improvement. Do note only track shares accredited to it. 

Yield wise, the increase in DPU is a positive move of SGX. And I am looking into their growth opportunities. Personally i feel they have many opportunities in the fintech future.

VICOM

The yesterday report of lower returns are not unexpected as the information is publicly known previously. My last position was June prior to the share splits so I did not sell at the top. I would think this may reflects on SBS Transit as well so avoided any new position on it. Both counters will be interesting to monitor.

DBS

Continue to average down on DBS as I feel the dividends able to provide is no brainer investment which is much better than my Reits. This is in-addition to the profitability. Unfortunately, MAS direction results Bank reducing their payout to 60% caught me by surprise in the sense Singapore Local bank gives me the impression that they are much more conservative in their operations compared to their oversea counterparts. So if any business is worth to lend, they would have the money.

The only risk which I have mentioned multiple times are Digital Banking Licenses which is an unknown risk which could put another big dent on Temasek earning after Keppel, Singtel, SBI, SBM, SAT, SIA ... are performing relatively poor. My list needs to be validated as I am using my untrained memory. Do the additional licenses timing be adjusted further or should it be curtailed ?

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

The long wait has finally arrived with the buy over of all the golf assets with a further price increase thanks to some key shareholders. From here, I learn that to have this folks are great. 

Relieved myself of recent increased position and some partial sale of existing holding as I am not very familiar with the entire returns process or any uneventful. The hope for remaining is we can have new surprises or my unknown that can further improve existing stakes as I will walk to the end probably as a learning experience.

The con of the buy over is that this counter provide good yield which will put a dent to my dividend plan. So I am in the process to mitigate but need to care that risk is also managed.

ASCENDAS REIT

Cleared all my positions when it run up recently. Manage to buy back in stages to build it back up after Ex-dividends. Due to this move, my dividend received has been reduced by more than 75% from this counter in exchange for capital gains. My final position is slightly smaller in shares from starting and overall I think a slight net increase compared to if I have done nothing. The experience is a not so fruitful exercise. Broker happy and I do not have loss.

The reason I buy back most of my shares are due to Ascendas is I feel is a key stake in any dividend portfolio. The yield has comes down slightly due to Covid but largely due to price increases. For later reason, one should not use yield to justify not buying back as it will be a big mistake. The counter is no longer my top position but certainly my best profit counter YTD.

There are more trades on others but I think today I have talked enough.

Cory

2020-0814

Cory Diary : Lowering Yield Continues

Fixed Deposits and SSB Returns

Rate continues to drop. Holding the 10 year SSB now has effective rate of 0.88%. What this mean is for every $1,000 invested, $8.88 per year of interests (On Average) provided I hold till end of 10 years. Probably a price of a Taxi trip ? That's how bad it is now.

A check on DBS bank Fixed Deposits the rate is 1.3% for 18 months which seems much better. So the older SSB offer of more than 2%, I may want to hold them tightly. It has become a "gem" within SSB universe.

ASTREA 3.85% BOND

Using some calculation with YTM, I compute the dividend is in range of 2.7% currently after cost with potential for slightly more due to contract clause. Assuming this Bond is as good in reliability as many safe bonds, this is rather good returns at current market price.

N6M / QL2 - iShares J.P. Morgan USD Asia Credit Bond Index ETF. This ETF is regional and has return currently at roughly 3% based on latest dividend which is marginally higher than Astrea above. The risk is the dividend has been coming down for past many quarters. ( see below) I am still learning on this and will keep monitoring.

STI ETF - Year 2020 Yield 4.5%.

This is traded in SGX like shares. Dividends are distributed twice a year.   Prior to the Dividend cap by MAS, Banks have about 35.6% weight-age of STI. Singtel about 7.8% but expect them to reduce their dividend. Reits about 15.1% if i totaled correctly. And expects to reduce too due to Covid. Therefore Year 2021 may dip to possible 2.7% yield range however this could be further reduce with increasing capital gain.  Please DYODD. 

Cory View

Line them up against the yield/growth of bank (60% div cap) and Reits ( Quality ones ) ..... and then few quarters of relatively large Covid impact periods. What should be the acceptable stock price of local banks and local Reits be valued with Growth in perspectives and when the beast unleashed ?

Cory

2020-0812

Cory Diary : Trying to be Optimistic

To be frank I was kind of frustrated this week. 

Ascendas Reit ( Must have Stock for Dividend Player which I blogged previously) continues to run up this week to another all time high after selling half my position because I do not think market sentiment can be so exhilarating. I could have a couple of grands more.

I also decided to clear Ascendas-iTrust batch for a quick trade forgetting the result is coming up at the end of the day. It did a good price jump the next day to my dismay. What am I thinking ? Which probably cost me another grand.

MAS also announced 60% cap of bank dividends for Year 2020 to my surprise despite the banks are well within their capacity to provide more. This will decrease my dividend by a mile. This dividend cap affects market sentiment and the moment I bought MCT, the counter starts its correction.

Hong Kong virus situation hits another waves and social distancing is reimposed. This affects MNAC operation which show no emotion in reflecting into the stock price. This is bad because I just bought another batch for the yield. 

To top it off, PRC Covid-19 cases start climbing and CRCT weaken some for me to scope a batch of stocks. As I was deliberating to sell days after as there is a little gain in the backdrop of the broad market weakness, I did not execute it at that moment. The price then move to negative territory. .. ...

Not forgetting my Diary subject line, 

I manage to sell a batch of Ascendas Reit at $3.62 on ex-dividend day and bought back at $3.53 before the day ends. I am still not yet near my original allocation though since I first sold.

As for Ascendas-iTrust, the price weakened, and the delta is now within a few days fluctuation. Don't feel so bad now considering I have fewer counters to manage, and cash raised.

MAS calls for dividend cap put a dent on my dividends this year as Banks are core position in my portfolio. It could have been worst like Banks in UK where they could not distribute even a single cent for Year 2020.  With the reduced dividend from SG Banks, this put my investment at lower risk in current Covid Climate. I am not perfectly happy for the exchange but nonetheless there is some positives out of it at a time when many businesses are struggling.

Company like SIA with state support and major rights issue, I am not sure is sufficient as market speculation is Year 2024 full recovery. People who still buy a stake in it, i salute you for your "National Service" but I think valuation can be create or destroy out of thin air and not with our Real Money in such circumstances. Is just passing of wealth from one investor to another that's all.

The HK government has relaxed their Covid measures probably due to business pressure, and my stake in MNAC is smallish. But I feel personally in such congested location, Malls are the way to go when we recover so the future is what we should think about. Same applies to CRCT on yield front. So I am ok to hold on for cash flow for long term play in a diminishing yield portfolio..

Lastly,  MCT purchases are at relative low price. Despite the price went lower after, feel serene that I am able to hold another Maple counter after I sold this last year. Long term likely hard to go wrong.

What an unforgettable  week ! Key lesson is as blogged earlier that we need to diversify as a retailer and whatever largest holding we have, expect the unexpected.

Cory

2020-0802

Cory Diary : Increasing my active investment for Passive Dividends

The Goal

The Covid-19 throws a spanner on increasing Portfolio to $1.3M quickly from 1.2M as in we need to be careful in our investment injection by $100k which is part of Warchest. So why this amount ?

.

Here's the link because of the compounding effect @1.3M per my lifestyle. (contingent to yield 5.3% able to maintain @ 1% growth). However if the stock price keeps increasing but business fundamental weaken or not enough improvement, the yield will be lowered. To compensate it, higher cash inject will be needed or expenses reset as we age. Hope I don't lose you by now !

Let me explain again using Reit term. if the stock price increase by 1% (Growth), and we have corresponding reduction in yield say -1% (DPU in cents maintain), it kind of neutralize the compounding effect. This is not good as we lose that year of compounding. So DPU has to increase accordingly to maintain the yield. If is not which could be, and to bring the portfolio backup,  we need to increase our investment through injection or we spend less to support the injection. Get it ?

Of-course we can increase our yield by investing in riskier asset to maintain it but this is not sustainable long term and will mean Portfolio keeps getting RISKIER over time .... . And that is Dangerous which some people may make, like me on what I feel right now  ? LOL

Therefore, come to think of it, is not so easy as the calculation is a simplified model. To mitigate it therefore using above example, if 1% growth of 1.3M that is equal to $13k has to come out of Real growth. When there is no DPU growth, we need to inject in this amount of $13k or spend less to support it roughly.

This is why advocating dividend re-investing is important or injection from saving if you have a job as changing stock aren't easy for same quality. But the key is capital gain has it's price to fulfill for dividend investing.

Something new today.

Cheers

Cory

2020-0726

.

 

Cory Diary : Improving Parental life - Investment well worth the money

When I become a new father, no one taught me what to do in an up-to-date package. Is based on experience through trial and error, tips from sales people, advise from bloggers and friends.

After 1.5 year into parenthood, there are few things I like to share that can improve our life and that is value for money. This are good investment in my opinion and well worth my money. This are also not sponsored, and based on my limited experience and affordability so take it for your reference only. Please do your own due diligence as it may varies with one's situation.


1. Nappy :  About $20 per pack ... varies with pc, size and type. Buy in bulk !

We only use Pampers and it has to be made in Japan version. Wife swore by the quality and the safe. Some babies develop rashes in other brands. I would suggest to buy in bulk or whenever there is promotion. Upgraded to pant type as my child get bigger.

As I know most of the nappy in the market aren't environmentally friendly but there is limited options for the convenience. I guess mother earth will understand. 

2. Electric Sucker : $50 excluding accessories

Get a good one with enough suction power. Is well worth the money. It helps my babies to breath and sleep well. Keeps me worry at night if their nose is fully congested especially when they are hit with flu. I use BabySmile. Most babies do not like to have their nose sucked so there will be some wailing.

The brand I have has an adapter accessories for newborn which comes in very handy. Try not to plunge the adapter into the deeper part of nostril as they will feel uncomfortable or may irritate the linens inside the nose. Just enough to suck and from my experience wait for few seconds for the pull to materialize so be patience. Usually I will try to use my other finger to press the nose lightly to make sure a tighter seal for better suction. 

Clean the rubbery adapter thoroughly after each use. I always keep the batteries outside the compartment to avoid drainage. The sucker use is not effective if the battery power is not strong so do keep additional batteries handy.

3.  Floor Mat : $300
Good and large one can cost a few hundred bucks. A place where the toddler can rest and play.  Usually I have it near my sofa as she tends to climb up to them. Few times the mat has help to arrest the fall from the sofa. Goodness. I am not sure about other babies but mine keep moving constantly so hard knock from fall happens. Just one catch from hard fall is well worth the money. Do be careful that it won't be easy to cover entire area especially corners so may needs some fillers if you are worried.

4. Baby Bottle Sterilizer : $140

Get a big one that can hold a few bottles. Preferably those that can also sterilizer the loose parts, powder containers and pacifiers at the same time. Don't skim on this because it saves me a lot of headaches trying to handle the limited space in the kitchen and cleaning each of them.

I use below from Baby City. Make sure not to pour to much or splash the water on the heat pan as it can gets into the venting hole on the side.

5. Medical Syringe : In cents ... per pc

This are quite cheap and I use to buy in a large bag of 50 easily. I use this to feed the upright baby slowly by 0.1 ML at a time as they may get choke easily. Useful for liquid medicine, Probiotic-Digestive Enzymes (baby friendly ? ) and even water.

We don't need the needle portion so make sure they are carefully put away with their cover on. Older toddler will reach for anything and this must be carefully kept away.

6. Leak proof water bottle : $25

She carries it around, suck it upside down, and won't leak easily. Helps to keep her hydrated to poo. I don't have specific brand recommendation. Go for those that is baby safe materials, and has a tube weight in the bottle to support the sucking. There is long and thin brush provided for cleaning the flexi-tube if you saw one and if do not know what it is for.

7. Baby cot bed : $ 400

I prefer one with rollers as I found later they like to be rolled to sleep for certain period of their development time. I prefer to go for one that do not have adjustable side as I may forget to pull back and baby may roll off the bed if they flips or struggle around. Need to also make sure the elevation is low enough to prevent older toddler from climbing out.

I think is best to use the mattress that comes with the supplier as it fits perfectly and leaves no gap which can be dangerous to baby. I also bought some side linens from Amazon to protect falls from older toddler and their bites on the woods.

8. Changing Mat : $25 In the early months, the nappy may not seal properly due to the baby size or our inexperience in folding it resulting spillages. We do not want it to be too tight on our newborns. So a changing mat place under the mattress help to ensure we do not need to wash and clean it. It can be real hassle when all the things can contaminated.

Cory

2020-0716

Cory Diary : GE 2020 Afterthoughts

The Election

Year 2020 Election returns PAP the super majority unsurprisingly. In a democratic world today, this is rare feat let alone since independence. Personally I feel even running a clean government with strong efficiency they still need to do a number of shrewd moves to secure that amount of seats. The opposition is not dumb either and they try to outsmart the incumbents.

If we remember in the Year 2015, there is lingering sentiment from Lee Kuan Yew's death and Jubilee Year celebrations. There is also ongoing issue over financial lapses discovered at the Aljunied-Hougang Punggol East Town Council in opposition ward. This inadvertently push up the votes.

In this year election, a Covid-19 and Recession Year, there is no good timing for PAP. ( Timing can be even worst for the ruling party), WP's Pritam Singh has shown maturity who also has Jamus Lim as a wild card that probably single-handedly turn the tide of battle to a public looking for credible opposition voices in the parliament.

Is with this context, that we enter GE2020. The PAP votes are much lower than GE2015 which broadly defines GE2020 trends but marginally higher than GE2011. Interestingly, WP do no better in votes count if we look at the chart above even though they have more seats.


Highlights

1.  East Coast GRC is ripe for grab by the opposition. With a number of potential candidates in the cabinet, this allowed the party to move PM in waiting Minister Heng to East Coast in the last minute. This is a calculated moves. If he loses, which is unlikely but for the rare possibilities if he does, maybe another PM should be selected. The move is to ensure the GRC remains with PAP and then strengthen the area there over time. If Mr Heng cannot achieve that so be it and PAP won with a slim majority. phew !

2. Another weak spot is West Coast GRC challenge by Tan CB team. In 2015 Election the smaller GRC was challenged by RP which is a much weaker team. PAP has a commanding lead that time with 78% votes. This year they almost lose it with a slim majority of just 52%. This can be seen as TCB effects. A big disappointment to him. This also show how vulnerable Singapore election can be which LKY was highly concern that the government can flip overnight. Singaporeans do care to remember.

3. CSJ of SDP decided not to continue to lead GRC and gun for the weakest SMC other than opposition ward Hougang (WP) to contest in Bukit Batok SMC. Unfortunately for him, Murali wins Bukit Batok SMC with 54.8%.

4. Seng Kang GRC loss is a surprise but not impossible considering the swing of votes. Led by labour chief Ng Chee Meng ,lost to the WP team by a margin of 4.26%, losing his ministerial post, though he will remain as Secretary-General of NTUC. Is a loss to PAP but not something they cannot live with.

There are also a few marked Wins that underscore they have the confidence of the people despite some controversy over the years in them.

5. A new team from the People's Action Party (PAP) led by Manpower Minister Josephine Teo secured 65.37 per cent of the votes against the Peoples Voice (PV) team headed by party chief Lim Tean in the four-member Jalan Besar GRC. This is an acknowledgement that voters willing to looks beyond "You don't need much space to have sex" and cramped migrant worker dorms problem.

6. Tanjong Pagar voters chose the team led by Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing, 50. The PAP team won 63.13 per cent of the votes in the ward. Another key member is Prime Minister's Office Indranee Rajah. Leaked audio clips of the Minister didn't do much damage. I thought is quite comical but real life.

7. Ms Tin Pei Ling, of the People's Action Party (PAP), romped home to victory for the second time in MacPherson SMC, sweeping up 71.74 per cent of the votes. Pretty Amazing score. No more little girl next door.

Lastly which I feel important is that PM Lee’s move to formalise Workers’ Party (WP) chief Pritam Singh as Leader of the Opposition role. What this mean is he will have access to thing they never before which could signifies the trust the government has on WP that they can work with for betterment of Singapore. 

This is also align with voters view as well that WP is a much more credible than others and is better that PAP starts to work with someone that they are comfortable with. The move means we avoided divisive politics in the future and kudos to PM Lee for stepping up to do this before he steps down. This is a big plus for Singapore.

Quite exciting event for a Covid Year !

Cory

2020-0714

Cory Diary : Retirement Calculator and a Miracle find !

The Math - Quite sometime since I last do the Math on how much to retire, to invest and to expense. If we are to do a perfect computing, this will be almost impossible or hassle. This doesn't mean we can't do a quick and dirty plan which can be representative.

The first table right below generate $60k per annum. Investment Money runs out only at age 98. However there are CPF, Bome, Saving, FD and SSB (aka Buffer & Legacy) which would easily extend the age to 110. More than enough to retire safely.

Table 1 : Retirement Math

The Second Table is what I like to show you. What-if I increase my investment just by 100k right below. At the age of 99, portfolio still has 1.8M ! That's so magically about compounding effect by just have a little more additional saving.

Table 2 : Retirement Math

Retire Plan - To retire most people depends on few income streams or reserve. Local Saving, SSB and FD are typically low returns safe investments. They are the reserve. The other common between most of us is CPF which provides one of the safest returns for marginally higher returns if one is not politically bias. 

Income stream typically comes from Rent, Bonds and Equity Investment. As we know Bonds are quite risky if they are higher yielding. You could lose all your capital and reset your retirement plans for good. Even lowering yield ones need to do homework because is not guaranteed. Nevertheless I wouldn't want to take riskier products for income if is not necessary to meet certain level of my retirement goal. Renting out a room could be an alternative though a little inconvenience. If one could manage, additional property will help a lot but we need to take care of loan.

Equity wise, investment class various widely as it tied to business and market conditions of the stock. Singapore STI ETF is one good way to invest however if we are to compared to other global general market indexes, STI don't do as well. This I feel got to do with how fast they update the stocks in the index and the listed companies performance. Oil price has significantly battered a number of them. The introduction of 4th Telco put a spanner to the Telcos. The developers gains are curbed. Most importantly the under lying stocks are not updated quick enough. A good example is Reit sectors which have been doing well for many years but only more of them are introduced in recent times at much higher price.

Finally, one can do businesses as sleeping partners but I wouldn't bet on it that we can feel relatively safe for most people. This segment is for the rich which have additional money to play but for average or middle class, every bullet counts in retirement.

In Summary, I have all above mentioned products. Relatively diversified but not as wide for some people. To able to do this, we must be able to build a nest out from having a stable job, saving and years of investment compounded. Unless we are born with silver-spoon this is a necessity. And the danger of having one is that we tend to less appreciate them and lose them.

There is also one additional bonus is that I have decided to stay employed till told not. This will help to support expenses without need to draw down my investment for now in-addition to growing my Nest. I do this because is dangerous to feel rich and quit however I have no plan to stress myself out while being employed. The health cost could breaks everything.

Last Message

One very last important concept today I found is that a little additional saving has a huge impact to my portfolio whether it is still viable at Age 99. See table 2 again. Please read them closely. Is a miracle. You want legacy and buffer. This is the true wonder step to take and not leaving your HDB flat for your children.

And we can do this without taking unnecessary risk in our portfolio as one saving grows that could set us back for years. One thing to note the parameters are there to product the table results. As one buffer grows, we can do  tweak to them to adjust to one needs.

For example, if I want a lifestyle of $8k monthly assuming other parameters same, I would need a portfolio of $2M. This tell you how realistic your expectation. All this can be done easily with Excel Spreadsheet.

Table 3 - Retirement Math

Have a nice day.

Cory

2020-0711

Cory Diary : Benefited from Covid-19

There has been a lot of negatives about this pandemic. In reality it has. Many people died from it. Many will have long term suffering. In many countries, many has lost their jobs. Cory was hit  when the portfolio came down as much as  -25% at one point. Interestingly, the investment remains and not waiver.

As today, the portfolio has fully recovered. What's more. Here's my list to put up in positive perspectives during this period. 

1. Theoretical Annual Dividends increased by 10k with similar portfolio size. That's probably 20% increase in dividends.

2. Birth of 2nd daughter. Bringing home a premature baby girl has it challenges but we are happy to have a second child. Ability to work from home helps my wife significantly as we take turns doing all the needed at home.

3. Company re-org resulting I need to also manage Europe and America staffs. So working from home helps with the different time zones and further add to my justification to go less to office. Some people may say no work life balance. I beg to differ due to significant  flexibility of my time.

4. Cab price has comes down some. The cost is about 20% cheaper and helps to lower the cost transporting my elder child to nanny home

5. Most of the time we order food online and delivered to our home. This save quite an amount of time as we dine at home.

6. Transportation cost has been basically reduced. This is not just work but also travelling abroad. Communication is now Video conferencing or Chat messaging.

7. Cash payout from Covid-19 support packages

8. Oil price has remains low. This translates to stable or lesser increase in electrical and water bills. Due to inflation constant price increase is actual normal the key is how much. So I view that things can get much worst than we have today when we look at price increases.

9. Lesser pollution to mother earth. The air and sky have never been much better due to lesser consumption. People from less develop or poor environmental policy countries benefited the the most interestingly with the economic slowdown. People will miss it.

There will be major shift in the industries and country economy from this experience. Is a good time to position ourselves for the future for a fresh start. Virus testing industries. Medical and manufacturing of protection products. Education systems. Working lifestyle. Even Supply Chain robustness. Instead of looking for Offensive Strategy, will Defensive Strategy works like avoidance ?

Something to ponder about.

Cory
2020-0709