Cory Diary : Impact of Increasing Rates on Home Loan

As all property owners, with increasing rates and weakening economy, there is some worry we may have difficulty paying our loans. We need to have a feel to assess how much an impact it can be in the future. So here's what I did using an on-line loan calculator for my calculation.

For a respectable condo size and location, S$1.125 M dollar price tag rounded up to $900 K loan amount at 80% loan to value. Applying DBS FHR18 +1.8% ( 3rd Year ), FHR18 is around 0.6% currently per DBS website. 

Loan Rate 2.4%

This works out to $5,958 monthly repayment for a 15 years loan. That's provided monthly income hits $10,723 to get a loan and assuming you do not have any other debts like credit card or car loans. Any of this debts will hit right into the calculation of your monthly income value. So beware.

Let's ease a little and pull the loan longer to 30 years. Monthly Income requirements down to $6,735 for a monthly repayment of $3,509.

Loan Rate 2.6%

Monthly Repayment: $6,043 (15 year loan), Income Required: $10,723 ( No change )

Monthly Repayment: $3,603 (30 year loan), Income Required: $6,735 ( No change )

Loan Rate 3.0%

Monthly Repayment: $6,215 (15 year loan), Income Required: $10,723 ( No change )

Monthly Repayment: $3,794 (30 year loan), Income Required: $6,735 ( No change )

Conclusion

The delta is a few hundreds buck more monthly. While is still a hit in the pocket it doesn't look as bad as I thought it would be. One of the main reason is the repayment has two components. Interest and Principal.

For a 15 year loan of the last example, when Interest go up to 3% , Interest cost is $1,215 but the Principal amount is still $5,000 which remains unchanged. Interest/Principal Ratio is 24.3%.

For a 30 year loan, Interest/Principal Ratio is 51.8% due mainly to lower principal repayment amount of $2,500. For people who overstretch themselves to buy a property using longer repayment period, few hundreds dollar increases can be a pain as they have lesser disposable income.

Cory

20151229

Cory Diary : Portfolio updates 20151226

Seems nothing is safe out there. And things hanging over likely be China Stock Over Valuation and Singapore Growths. The 3 local big banks have seen dramatic price reduction in the range of -20 to -25% despite good overall earning. That's a crash isn't it ? Even the Telco is not spared ranging -20% to -30%. M1 more on the 4th Telecom impact.

Idle Ships

If we are thinking this is all about stock price or employment rate then we need to look and get a feel on the ground. Tell these to those vested in Property, Oil and Gas, Commodity, S-Chip, Shipping counters and things are much much worst than STI indicated -15%.

And then on the job front, there are folks that are't looking for jobs or just retrenched. A gathering recently of old university mates happen to have 3 couples with their mates or themselves out of jobs. And their the other half's either in not so well paid job or stressed for job change. Don't believe ? Talk to those highly qualified taxi driver and you will understand the loss of knowledge and experience to the industry. Are their jobs gone for good ?

Matter of time, i think the Gov will have to start loosening the foreign migrants intake to lessen the manufacturing blow. Non-Essential Property curbs on the developers. What else ? Likely weaker S$. They probably just need one more bad news to stir the ground before they have to act without damaging the votes.

This month i add some positions into Banks and new cash into Bonds. Sold M1. Sounds more like re-balancing before the year ended as things may have to get worst before it gets better. I Wish not.

Merry Christmas

Cory

20151226

Cory Diary : Portfolio update 20151012

If someone has said in the beginning of the year that China will be the main reason that STI enters correction territory it will be quite hard to accept. Such is the market dynamic. Hard to anticipate even for expert.

Is the correction over with recent days run up ? Well just looking at the 1 yr and 2 yr charts, seems so. However 5 yr and 10 yr charts are yet confirm. That's my own view. Time will tell !

My portfolio ytd went down -5% at the worst period and recovered to -2.6%. STI still at -10% today.
Relative wise i am doing ok but i could have done much better if i have cut loss faster as said in my earlier article.

For those data craze, Equity at 37%. Cash/FD 39%, Structured Investment/Bond 11% and others.
China could have cause another major crisis. It didn't so far. Else i could have tap my war fund.

Decided to sell Saizen Reit as i feel the Japanese yen will continue it's weakening mid term and this gives me some anxiety despite all those hedging in place. Hope to find a replacement soon. Still holding to some Starhub shares though no increase. I feel the impact of 4th Telco will be mitigated by immigration long term.

I sleep well with current portfolio set up and that's all matter. cheers.


Cory 20151012