Cory Diary : Q1 2019 Portfolio Review

Time for Q1 2019 review. STI ETF YTD registered XIRR 5% gain including dividend, annualized. And it is now my largest counter of almost 10% without a need for me to put an extra dime into which I will blog later. Reits and Trusts have another good run for the last month of the quarter too. As they are about 50% of my portfolio, I have benefited from it largely. The best performer for local stock is Ascendas Reit registering 16% returns YTD.

Ascendas Reit was my largest prior to end of Q1. After discussing with friends over in IN, I decided to take 25% profit yesterday at $2.92 (Ascendas Reit). I can feel the pain from the dividend loss but the mind tells me I need to take step in securing my profits as this is near 3 years of dividends. I could be wrong and still has 75% to enjoy the ride. Either side I win, just lesser. :)

Do note that in a Winning market, is getting harder to maintain dividends as yield drops with increasing market if we sell and try to buy again. This logic is important to understand.

As above chart comparison using Strait times index as comparison which performance is replicated STI ETF as well, Cory Portfolio has over taken Strait times Index for the Q1 period. This comes from STI ETF, Reits/Trusts and US stocks maintaining the rebound level. The banks and Telco are mute and laggard in my portfolio but I am ok with them. Again the chart shows the resilient path I took to secure my returns with a rather conservative portfolio.

As I mentioned in my earlier article on 10th Mar'19 link , Life is about Choices. If one has sold, we are out of market and will be hard to come back again today just on expenses alone. My portfolio expense ratio has come down to 0.13%. It will take deeper correction for one to return if we have sold. However Reits/Trusts give easily 5% returns annually. A few year outside the market we would have created our own "financial crisis".

There are a lot of risk in the market. And personally I feel risk is underrated on each stock. But not vested in market is a much larger risk. We just have to make more right choices than bad.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0330

Cory Diary : Did we just celebrated Recession ?

With looming recession the talk of town, the Market starts to ramp up.

What ?!  This time different lah .... why ? Because this means interest rate won't be going up ...  ( wah lao ... I just signed up fixed rate loan for that ..... @#%$@#%)

Who benefits most from it ? Reits and Trust. Which I still find it ironical because I have been harping rising rate won't affect them much either. Not that I am complaining much. New high for my portfolio with .... "silly bonds".  I could see 7% mark ...

Who suffers ? Banks ... stays flat. This doesn't sound like much suffering ....

What I miss today. Koufu .... was deliberating for a buy ... just last weekend ... damn ...


Cory

2019-0326

P.S. Anyone has advise for fixing up ABC Baby Stroller Design ...

Cory Diary : Baby Expenses - Overview

I have been pondering to write this post because expenses on my baby is not as closely tracked. One thing is I am often oversea and there is some currency exchange, and receipts lost. Some of the the expenses are covered by my wife and relatives. Do note that my baby is born oversea. I will be in the process to make baby bonus claim later but for tax deduction probably I don't benefit much from it locally. Nevertheless, is about out not in.

One thing to note is that over time I will come back and update this post with newer information as it occurs.

Before Deliver Expense - this excludes travelling and leave costs. Mainly pre-checks, scanning, medical packages in delivery clinic.

Baby Preparation Items - such as bottles, clothing, nappy etc. There are some wastage here and there but I won't elaborate for now.

After Deliver Expense - items such as delivery cost, suite and confinement stays. Do note i maybe able to claim some delivery expenses so I would like to come back and update later after.

Baby Aftercare - I do not want 24 hr care as I like to see her grow up. So we decide just day care will do. Has been great help even though need to negotiate and talk with nanny of her usual.

Interim Cost : S$22,437

Cheers

Cory
2019-0323 First Initial Update

Cory Diary : Portfolio at 21

STI Index YTD since 31st Dec'18 is currently at +4.3% excluding dividends. Cory Portfolio since measured from 2007 to today is 6.2% XIRR.

My tracked portfolio is at 6.3% including dividends this year measured with end date 31st Dec 2019 whereas STI ETF XIRR is at +4.9% including dividends for same apple to apple measure. 

Here's the latest portfolio distribution. 

Reits/Trusts - They have better weight-age individually. 8 will be a good number to go forward at minimum. I have seen some minor correction in CMT to $2.33 but still not deep enough for me to collect back what I have sold some earlier. CMT business is like "5% fixed deposits". Reits is now at fair value but nothing stopping it from further increase if the money supply is there. I would just be cautious of over-concentrating further in this segment which is now 51% of my measured portfolio.


SG Blue Chips - Hoping to secure more STI ETF at better valuation as I do not feel like buying into specific blue chips. But it has to fall to 3000 to 3100 range before I do another round of due diligence. I would like it to be my largest holding.


Bonds - very limited opportunities to increase. SSB is not tracked in my portfolio. I hope to up at least another before the existing expires. Is a good baseline support for my portfolio.


SME - 3 is good enough. They are volatile but can be profitable if I pay more attention to them. Hence, 3 only for focus.


US Stocks - My testing ground. So far so good. Provide me some level of diversification from local market. The investment size is something I am comfortable with right now and hopefully they grow from it.


Few things I did. Investment in SSB has gone beyond (updated for privacy) . Would like to max it out at appropriate time. I have also raised enough cash for further investment at appropriate time in equity cash management account.


Cory

2019-0316















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Cory Diary : Life is about Choices - STI Index

Life is about Choices

When I blogged earlier on 25th Dec'18 that we likely see better STI index, indeed we do. I would say fortunately we do because if it has broken supports, the alternative of the market direction would have been terrible. See the link here. So what I did then is to up my investible amount into the market that time in and indeed benefited from it.

Today I took a peak on the index again. Here's the chart.

STI Index

There is the golden cross up that most would like to see back in Dec'18 wishes.  How will the market move will be interesting after ?  In my novice opinion, it should continue to climb despite recent climb down of the index. There will be daily fluctuation noises. However, hopeful for the climb up for the year 2019 could likely mean the result of the China-US talk is not going to be bad.

The failure of the Vietnam talk which Trump walked away could helped reinforce to the Chinese that he aren't going to exchange votes for a bad deal for America. And that's mean more tough discussion has to be happened right from the top. The Chinese has the Choice imo. A less win deal is not a bad deal.

If they walkaway, this could mean breakdown to 3000 level. A further down side will be 2800 follow by ... .. ... Hopefully common sense prevails which I think they will. So continue to be vested. If I like to bet, it will be index or it's components that benefits from it.


Yes, there is always Risk. Be prepared for it !


Cory
2019-0310

Cory Diary : Trading - Span of Control In-Check

Sold Frasers L&I Tr - This is particular interesting sale because nothing much has changed for the company other than the stock price moved up quite a bit from beginning of year at $1.03. I only found out when someone blogged about it that he had sold and decided to investigate. The chart looks like a spike up "W-shaped". Since I am in the process of counter reduction, this looks like no brainier to sell too for me considering I have Ascendas and Maple Ind. Tr in industrial segment.  

For the dividends replacement of which it provides more than 6.5% yield. I have the proceed splits across 3 Reits namely FCT, Mapletree NAC Tr and Ascendas-h Tr.  FCT doesn't really cut it from 5.3% yield perspective but since I have no plan to sell my existing small FCT in my portfolio it maybe worth my time to up it on the current price dip.  The later two averaged up too. They have good yield and I am investing in hospitality that Asia will remains vibrant and keep growing.

One thing to note is that Frasers L&I Tr do not distribute dividend last quarter reporting as it is on half yearly basis. This re-balance requires 4 trades to execute. Kind of costly but I feel necessary as the risk is getting higher for Fraser L&I Tr with the recent run-up compared to others and I do not want to over burden specific averaged up counters.

On another separate note, I sold Neratel as well with recent result announcement. This use to be a hot VB counter. Took me too long to cut-it. Though I am net positive, opportunity cost is still painful. After this sale, this helps to reduce my span of control further.  


Here's how the portfolio radar map looks like for those who are interested.

Cheers

Cory

2019-0307

Cory Diary : Hallmarks of a Good Reit

If one has been investing in Reits for years, we know not all the same. Some will grow their DPU with times. This mean regardless of new issuance of shares, the original share holders still get more dividends after per share (Holy grail of passive investors).  Some will give dividends on par,  some with some capital loss. Some tricky ones required you to do "average down" with risks. Some are mismanaged. Some are crooks. For those who are on the lasts, remember their management. Any company they touch is something you may want to know.

Hallmark of a Good Reit Chart

We like to make sure we are vested in the first two camps. As they are the true ones that gives us peace of mind and support our retirements. For those that mismanaged or crook categories, timing matters. This is no fun. You need to be good at it. Maybe even have to be an insider.


Negative Experiences

This is some thing I seen that we need to be careful on. They dump weak sponsor properties into their Reit. They do misleading income support. Hardly AEIs. Consistent negative rental reversion. Weak portfolio. High borrowing costs. Keeps issuing rights from retailers. Large discounts of issue.

1. Never invest based on yield solely. This could likely be due to falling stock prices. And there are reasons why stock price falls. And the capital loss outweigh the distribution.

2. Inherent Risks of some Reits on high valuation
Some Reits give good DPU or Yield but the valuation is high based on NAV. Nothing wrong if they can continue to provide consistently. However market sentiments and ability of the Reit to maintain in the future can be a concern. And once they strike, you may suffer significant capital lose that negate many years of dividend returns.

3. Spiral down
When Reits are on down trend in stock prices from market, this can mean something is not right. DPU do not lie. A good Reit is able to attract Private Placement. So constant tapping on retailer for money is an indication something may not be right or doesn't add up.

4. Valuation
Reits properties are their earning tools. If the property able to consistently get better valuation, this mean something on top of rentals. Do be careful on this one as I have doubt on their trustworthiness if they cannot get better rents or able to find tenants. Nevertheless is one of indication.


Positive Experiences
Management is proactive and innovative. They typically stays ahead of the game to make sure they do not spiral down. Keep their cost in-checks. Keep working on their portfolio and tenants.

1. Low borrowing costs
Significant Saving. This give management in strong advantage.

2. Strong command of rental income
Support growing DPU and AEI.

3. Growing portfolio valuation
Just by selling a piece of their property could allow rejuvenation of their DPU for long time after paying off the loans.

4. Yield
Need not be in 6% to 10% ranges. If we can find one that meet many positive experiences, is a gem. Good reits and trusts have low yield for a reason. Because they are Good.

5. Scales
Size matters. They can do AEIs without large impact to DPU.

6. Seldom needs to tap on retailers for money to grow. Private placements are enough most of the time. Usually they can also do AEIs or property swap.

7. High Stock Price Valuation
Some of this good Reits have high valuation. Nothing wrong if they can give you a future of growing DPU. 

8. Growing DPU with Good Consistency
Hallmark of a good Reit if can be done long term. Need to make sure is not property dumped at high price with income support that could see a net decrease in value.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0306

Cory Diary : US Stocks enjoying nice rebound

Last year is bad for US stock investors. This year for the first 2 months have seen strong rebound. Hopefully it stays. Below table is the YTD returns of US stocks that I am tracking.

One thing realised is that if there is nothing fundamental change in the company, US stock can swing like crazy. Therefore, ability to hold seems key. On the other hand, if I have average down, returns would have been awesome. Indeed land of opportunity.


Cory
2019-0303

Cory Diary : Performance 2019 Feb result

Cory
2019-0301