Cory Diary : Another Round of Property Curb - TDSR

One of the tougher restriction is as follow.

"The government will also tighten the total debt servicing ratio threshold to 55% from 60%, which takes effect from Dec 16. This means that a person’s total monthly loan payments, including mortgages, cannot exceed 55% of the individual’s total gross income."

Many experts say is just 5% only. So let see how much it will be like.

TDSR Formula

To calculate a borrower’s TDSR, use the following formula:

(Borrower's total monthly debt obligations / Borrower's gross monthly income) x 100%

Residential property or secured by residential property

Not less than 3.5% or the prevailing market interest rate, whichever is higher.

Let say debt is $5000 monthly for a Condo today, Gross Salary needs to be $8333. With the 5% increase in TDSR, Salary now needs to be $9091. That's $758 increase of Gross income. Personally I feel this is not a small sum. A 9% increase in gross income needed. Basically put many people out of reach for a few years.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Cory

2021-1225

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Cory Diary : Investment Allocation updates

One more week before the year ended. Tracking my portfolio closer and re-visit my thoughts. This is the year where the banks strong stock price totally skewed the STI market returns. There is hardly any profitability on the Reits segments. People who tried the Chinese/HK market is likely badly hit by the Chinese regulatory controls which still in hyperdrive. As for the US side, people who invested in non-profitable growth stocks also seen major correction. In the Covid era, people who invested in glove stocks saw their profit vaporized ironically. What's remaining probably Crypto space and within not all make it.

As previously mentioned for the US market I have consolidated my position just to TSLA earlier in anticipation of the growth stock correction. I still view bullishness on the company but need not necessary the price which reflecting in too many factors in play. Size wise I thought I have enough now but is never enough. Few other companies that I would consider returning when opportunity arises are AMD, MSFT and HPQ. NVIDA and FB are out after Elon Musk comment on Metaverse. This sounds like I am getting deeper into "Elon Musk Craze". He is on last tranche of his stock option exercise and probably sale and despite 10% sold, Tesla Stock price hold well with the dilution and sales. We can imagine what could happen to the stock when Dec Shipment data and Jan Q4 results are out if market view it favorably. The US Market return this year well supported the Portfolio returns disproportionately to their size. Currently most ardent fan will see even more upside on Tesla. Not to be surprise Tesla may end up as top position in my portfolio. The current worst case "Technical Resistance" is around US$900 per share that I can think of. This week closing price is US$1067. I still can add 30 more shares without impact to my profitability if the worst case happens. I already got approval to get another 10 shares first. haha.

For China aspect, there is no clear indication of turnaround of corporates bashing. In-addition Covid zero policy will put a lid on overall spending. Similar to US, I have narrowed to a single stock which in China case is Alibaba though for different reason. Allocation in the Chinese share is now only 1%. Why I did not hold out on Tencent is similar reason to HST that I hardly lose out much from the sales. Whether I will return in larger allocation is how CCP play out long term as clearly they affects company profitability. Nevertheless I have retained HK$ for future adventure if any. Thinking aback,  it could be quite silly to do any investment there currently unless we are master in investing of stock pick in current environment. The opportunity cost in holding Alibaba is already high with almost 48% loss on the small allocation counter, and now retaining HK$ in the same market for same macro factor. So don't be surprise  switch the currency out in days.

The majority of the portfolio is still Reits driving significant amount of dividends for Year 2022. Reit in my portfolio is flat including dividends for this year. Roughly 1% return only. The counter balance will be the bank wrt to Tapering & possibly Interest Rate though is still too early to say, and which also provide relatively good dividends. So far Bank provides the largest capital gain ytd.  I driving most of the local market gains for the portfolio. In-addition, Sheng Siong, VICOM and Netlink BNB Tr are defensive team which can be a business cost to reduce volatility.

Equity Only

Current investment cash 9%

Portfolio Returns YTD 9.7%

Portfolio Yield 4.8%

Expense Ratio 0.52%

In respect to the negative environments, the portfolio is still working well for a week to go. ( touchwood ). Feeling Balance but I still can do some tweaks on US market, if any.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Cory

2021-1224

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Cory Diary : Tesla Investment updates

Got into Tesla early this year and "Trapped" by the tech correction. Waited 6 months with DCA before Tesla ATH. Now with recent Growth stocks correction, how long it is going to last this time ? Tesla is not only growing significantly but also getting more profitable unlike SE or GRAB which are in burning cash stage.

Few things to watch.

1. Giga Berlin approval

2. Elon Option expiry sales in last stages.

3. Q4 Shipment data

4. Q4 Results

Good News is Biden concedes. This is significant which mean no union subsidy yet for EV cars.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/16/biden-concedes-bbb-bill-wont-get-passed-this-year-525194

Facts

1. Elon will pay $B of taxes for this year on his Options and Stock Sales. IIRC more than 50% tax.

2. Elon will have more shares after this sales due to not all option shares exercised are sold

Allocation

Share allocation hits 8.5% of portfolio. Time to rest for DCA considering my average price has now increase to 800+ ? Last buy at 935. Averaging up is quite interesting.

Cheers

Cory

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Cory Diary : Averaging Up Buffer

The Lesson

Have been interested in a particular stock but kind of late in the game. The first thing I do is to throw in an initial position. Get my skin in it. For the size can be throw of dice as long is not too big. I did it into with too big an initial position and unfortunately the Tech market corrected in early 2021. The size was about double of roughly my average trading size. Well, I was in FOMO. Wanted to scale up quickly. Maybe just Bad timing. During the course learned a lot of Averaging Down. Not a very shiok time to invest. haha. About monthly. Sometimes I reduce my size and traded twice. Trading Fee not my primary consideration but trying to build a position safely and having the conviction that long term the stock price will come back up and there will be a flip in profitability. In that sense, the stock must be something I have strong believe in.

Averaging Up

Now after more than 6 months, the stock broke new high. Position size wise is still not to the level I wanted. Need it to be doubled at least to feel the impact to the portfolio. In fact, feel so good with the way the company is going. Maybe tripled. And this present an issue on how to Scale Up safely. We want to avoid a situation where the market correct after backloading at high prices which negate all the profits and effort of past 6 months.

For example Tesla Stock. Use chart to see where is the bad case situation. Say $900. Do an estimate average cost after profit around 800. Currently trading slightly above $1000 which likely due to Elon Musk selling his shares before Option Expiry else it would have been much higher imo. Compute my average cost after deducting profit from my purchase price. I can use $100 gap. Therefore if is below $800 cost price, i can continue to buy some shares to average up. Once it hits 800, I stop and wait for stock price to hit the next higher level. In this way I created a buffer of ensuring profitability or MOS. Depending on individual we can increase the buffer and this will reduce my averaging up possibility. Why we do this is for emotional and depth of conviction reasons. Another is we want to avoid a situation where a good profitable position turns negative due to averaging up which can be quite painful.

The Mentality of Celebrating Others Success

Now, we can look from another view point on conviction. Say our average cos is $800 again. A new investor wanted to wait after Elon sells finish before he adds. He simulate a scenario of not to wait and add at $1100 ? That's 37.5% more than an investor who enters at $800. He has a mental block that he do not want to lose out to those who bought cheaper and decided to wait. Let's say the expectation on both investors are $3000 in 3 years. And each bought with US$10k at $800 and $1100 respectively.

What's the profit for the investor with $800 base cost ? 12.5 Tesla shares will be a profit of $27.5k. How about the investor with $1100 base cost ? 9.09 Tesla Shares will be a profit of $17,271. He can also wait for $1000 before enter and the profit will be $20k. Which is not significantly far behind from an investor with $800 base cost. What he has to get over is the kiasu mentality vs the potential of Tesla Car driven away autonomously. In investment, is not to beat the other investor but to beat oneself. Don't lose sight of it. There is always an investor who pay a much lower cost than us. The only difference is whether you know him personally or not.

Cory

2021-1211

Cory Diary : Portfolio Equity Map After Omicron

Past few days have been quite humbling. The correction seen on the Market and specially Banks are quite significant. When we look back at my previous post ( link )on 24th Nov about Capital Preservation, I just feel the market has something up it's sleeves. Indeed it has with Omicron. Well the good news is that it is mild so far. And if stays so and prevalent, it could be the end of Covid Era. A natural immunization across the world population against Covid. Will this materialize is yet to be seen but probably considering Spanish flu kind of disappear after 2 years too in a world that do not have vaccine.

So with the move on preservation, I do "Saved" my US portfolio. However not significant is done on Asia Equity. For Chinese shares, fortunately I have decided to remove HST, and Tencent reduced as the more I think about Gov persistent "fixing" of private company is bad for capitalism ideas therefore bad for HK Stock Market. Self-serving shooting on own foot borders insanity just like Cultural Revolution which is a misnomer because Cultural do get destroyed. Will this implied Economic Revolution kills the Economy too ? Time will tell. I wish my Chinese friends good luck as I still have Alibaba invested with them. Still holding the last flame of hope in them.

Above Current Portfolio allocation. 18 stocks. Walked through each of SG stocks allocation today again and there is nothing I am not happy about except the market price. haha. Each size allocation balanced against my fear. So there seem nothing I need to tweak. Glad to build back some shares in DBS during the sell down before it went back up due to Fed. Rising rate is good for bank so it is kind of counter balance when the market goes berserk. Maybe we need MSCI to thank for driving the bank price low by their rebalancing to SEA. Kind of damaging moves to their client imo.

Now with balance 8.6% investment fund, I could deploy in either in US or SG markets. I have come back just a little bit in META and AMD earlier. Now, with Fed hawkish, and Omicron fear fading, it looks like tapering will happen in a faster pace follow by rate rise. This is bad for growth stock specially money losing ones. And this probably explain why SEA, PLTR and GRAB won't do well. Dividend stocks wise I have enough for Year 2022. I could get more but I want to have some bang in the buck and probably TESLA and AMD if I could get good pricing.

Current profit yield at 9.8% YTD which is performing slightly above STI. Dividend planned for Year 2022 is roughly 64k. Let's see how much Bonus I will get ....

Cory

2021-0213

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