Nov yet finish but I could not wait. The Omicron Variant suddenly becomes a headline issue by the Media driving down markets across the globe. So time to update my performance. Kiasu lah. Actually is Sunday so a little free. ha.
As the chart above, my XIRR and Yield returns are both finally above STI Index. Not to forget STI has distributed 2 batches of dividend this year totaled 8.3 cents or about 2.59% yield so technically I am slightly below STI still in total returns but not much. The performance is all Equity.
Three news came in and looks like South Africa has played down the severity of the virus and that Vaccine producers have strong short term solution fixes for them if needed. Looks like a case of Media hype. Hopefully fear will died down and pass.
From the looks of it there is a good chance the market will rebound on Mon Trading. Thinking back, I should have bought more DBS shares back last friday. grrrr .
Currently, focus is more on US market as I have driven enough dividend planned for Year 2022. So checking stock prices have been my recent nights pass time. Kind of fun and exciting to see them move so wildly even for shares I no longer owned. Let's see how the US market takes all this news.
Cory
2021-1128
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
The Market seems shaky recently. What I notice is that PLTR results was fantastic but sold down like -30%. Another stock is SE which is around -22% at time of typing from ATH. The recently listed RIVN hits high of 172 and now trading around -29% within 2 weeks. All of them are not profitable in term of EPS. Unfortunately I am stuck in PLTR. Ouch.
From the Chart of MSFT, there is a recent steeper climb which is quite obvious in 1 year time frame since End of Sept'21. Keep having this in mind on potential pull back though time frame is hard to determine. The climb of the stock has been slow appreciation, so my take is the portfolio will not lose much if it keeps climbing at that pace short term.
Meta Platforms PE is not expensive. However Metaverse is a few years project. We can monitor and see how the connect world progress. It is an interesting frontier but for short term we need not be tied to it at current market sentiment especially with possible tapering by Fed.
On another front, I noticed Netlink BNB Tr which I have is up 0.01 despite just Ex-dividend recently. This counter usually a place for fund to hide and the appreciation is really slow if any. For it to maintain and increase after Ex-dividend means something. In addition, many of the strong local reits seems in flat mode despite cheap valuation. Another data point to add.
Finally, I am quite Bull on Tesla and maybe some on AMD. Just averaged up again on Tesla and this kind of depleted the war fund. Therefore, decided to sell Meta Platforms and Microsoft. Hold PLTR ( temp) , TSLA and AMD. Do note some profit was taken off the table on AMD earlier. In this way, initiated Capital Preservation while ensuring able to ride well with TSLA or even average up as needed.
ah ! I can Sleep Well now.
Cheers
Cory
2021-1124
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
US Market allocation is now tripled of Chinese Shares. Reduced Bank allocation also implied dividend expectation will be lowered this year- and due to timing, some of the Reits shares are bought after Ex-dividends. We probably see a much larger jump on the dividend next year. Interestingly, Reit allocation increased largely with cash from bonds sales.
With the addition of CPF and Gov Securities into the equity overall returns. Overall dividend and interests returns will now be interesting. First of all the new additions are theoretically capital guaranteed. And this also complement with the annual cash top-up strategy.
Secondly, is a well known fact ( may no be some ) that upon age 55, we can withdraw cash from CPF after FRS amount is allocated for RA compounding in which this is already achieved. To be exact, we can't withdraw as cash for living expenses with CPF MA nevertheless for simplification, we have them as part of income since we can use it for medical expenses.
Therefore, returns measurement can look into overall perspective now considering capital is now allocated to CPF through top-up except for money reserved for RA. And if the liquidity is a concern, SSB is at max which can help to tie me over the 3 years till age 55 withdrawal.
With that, it makes more sense on tracking all the dividends and interests together. Furthermore, CPF interests rate is good enough and do not see the need to risk invest them in equity market. It will become basic safety net retirement returns. And so there will not be dividend derived from it. This also help me to focus.
With that,
For detail monthly equity dividend return link is here.
There is still the last piece of the puzzle which is the Property Rental Returns. An important asset for enhance retirement support component. Right now, will let it stays as it is.
Cory
2021-1118
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
Often portfolio re-balance allocation is to achieve mental peace and managing risk through allocation. There is also different strategies on how we invest resulting interesting insights. Few days ago started playing with Excel Pivot table. Two columns of interests are compared. Below is a table compiled some time back.
If we look at AMD (1st row) it appears 2.2% allocation resulting 12.8% of total portfolio profit. Reason being due to reduction of AMD allocation by about 1/3 after profit made. AMD continues to move up though so missed out slightly more gain but is ok as 2/3 is still in the game which can help us to weather any storm later if the portfolio get hits. And the 1/3 cash returned is working somewhere else anyway.
The re-balance money theoretically is use for re-investment into Tesla considering the portfolio always have ready cash in account for opportunities. And in this case the plan is to re-purchase Tesla shares back to the original level after few days of Elon's Tweet Sales. However, this was only executed recently. Why 15.2% return of portfolio then ? Due to the trade timing for obvious reason it will go down, 60% of the shares were traded off to protect the profit. But with Elon, anything goes. So trading off 100% seems too risky even though the situation looks quite obvious.
This trading story applies similar to Ascendas Reit too as you can see YTD Ascendas has 9.1% profit despite it only moves up 3.3% so far since beginning of Jan'21. A strategy which we actually applied on US stocks. Will we increase Ascendas allocation ? No, as it has 11.3% allocation unless we have exceptional reason. Should we reduce ? No, as well as it is not outsized and helping to drive dividend part of the portfolio.
Another interesting counter is DBS. 4.2% allocation responsible for 24.3% profit. As previously blogged, reducing the allocation. It was like 11% to 13% allocation probably. How we locking profit more as the share price go up while we feel potential gain getting smaller by the day. DBS still toppish resulting outsize gains. A story where despite reduced allocation, this year gains are still there.
Profit Grand total is 75.8% and not 100% because some profitable positions are closed. It has been quite profitable year since Year 2019 which still holding the return record but I suspect this year has a good chance that it can overtake it while balancing Dividend and Capital gains.
Please dyodd as trading do have risk that one has to manage. Sharing my personal experience.
Cheers
Cory
2021-1117
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
1.5 months more to go before we are done with Year 2021. It has been exciting so far in catch up mode to STI index. So far the index has a double digit success which is not often we see. I am kind of breathless trying all angles to beat it except literally buying same percentage of bank shares to mimic STI Index. It will be fruitless exercise anyway since it has already move up. In the process, learned more about Growth Segments, and continuously challenging my dividend segments allocation. It also speed up my bond reduction plan. Think I am glad to do that.
Inflation is War on Savers. It would have been quite terrible to put most of one asset in fixed deposits. However it can be worst if one could not manage the risk but is unacceptable not to learn to overcome it. Year 2022 again is to have a plan on dividend target. Want to start off the year that has a theoretical max on dividends as a guiding tower else I will work out a plan that give me best potential to happen. So Reits are still the core of the portfolio driving most of the dividends. There is still a lot of potential capital gains in it however it can also suffers in large market drawdown especially when Fed is in tapering mode. Despite that, rate is low even after all this. Sizing each of their risk and rewards will be important just in case the worst case happens. And to have main core vested in market most of the time is still critical.
What to watch in Year 2022 ?
Banks have a pretty good run up this year but my feeling is that there is limited upside unless earning significantly outperform or the yields attractive. Is still good to continue to hold some banks shares and it will interesting to see how Digital banks play out locally. Will still avoid "Tourist" stocks as a recovery play. I like to see more on the development of office market impacting reits, if any. So will not add more too for a start. Defensive play maybe is something I like and will sized accordingly. Stocks like Net link BNB Tr, Vicom, Sheng Siong are already inside my portfolio.
US Market is kind of in balloon stage which can last for weeks, months or years. So too huge in idle cash can be bad. Whatever the case, any scale up in US Market segment likely will only be AMD or Tesla. Likely the later as I still find it has huge potential. The risk appears now to be Giga Berlin complete scrap. A worst case scenario which is unlikely but nevertheless a risk. Microsoft has been performing consistently but in large market correction, the capital gain ROI maybe risky. Metaverse play will be interesting but like Palantir they are in early development stages which if invest may also need to be more carefully sized for long term muted share price.
Additionally, Poems cash management transaction fee is kind of expensive to do multiple trades on foreign shares. Something I need to think about in the future on how to manage it.
Below table is current stock list in the portfolio.
Overall, slightly more conservative in Year 2022 considering portfolio have enjoyed continuous 3 years of good growth. It will be ok to have the portfolio end with good net cash which can use for CPF Top-Up and War-chest. So having more cash for opportunities the direction to go. However the portfolio positioning continues to allow for upside in capital gains in various possibility routes. Namely China Recovery, US Market ballooning on growth stocks, Reits appreciation or even spikes in defensive counters on better business prospects. I have all this already planned in current portfolio. So it will be minor tweaks or additional adjustment due to market opportunities.
Cory
2021-1112
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
Asset continues to grow with saving and stronger investment returns in recent weeks. There is no purposeful saving other than a few nagging of food wastage. As chart below there is more focus on making sure money works harder. Year to date, achieved 10% increase in asset for Year 2021. That's not really easy for a family with children. I need to think harder.
Rewarded myself when I chance upon a small drawing tablet for about S$140. Is the cheapest model I could find that allows me to do some basic writing and drawing abilities. Kind of fun and some learning curve to get use to it. Can be classify as invest in oneself ?
( Wife asked for an Apple Mobile phone .... )
Facebook has a name change to Meta Platform. In non-physical world, imagination is unlimited. I thought the direction they are going is excellent and decide to start invest a little. And if I like their progress it could be a build up.
( Maybe I can give a Meta iphone ? ) Ha.
Cory
2021-1106
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
Compounding dividend by holding stocks long term is kind of straight forward method of investment. However, if one is to change dividend stocks midway while continue to compound, there is potential one can go faster due to market timing opportunities.
An example will be like 4x100m Runners passing baton. There is not much delay other than transaction fees. In fact new fresher runner can run faster speeding up the whole process of compounding. By locking oneself to a single runner to complete the entire compounding journey, matter of time it may slowed down as one will get tired running the entire 400m journey.
The next question will be when should we change runner ?
DPU expected to slow down in next coming years, CEO change not to our liking, Industry shifts, Price Actions / Market Dynamics, Riskier leveraging, Weakening Sponsor, ....
Cory
2021-1105
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
Within one month the portfolio do a flip above STI Index just as I thought the battle is lost trying to catch up. Well not exactly if we include STI Index dividend returns which will be roughly 3% more but I am still glad. The key driver is non other than Tesla recording ATH 1208 this morning. I am now trying to figure out how to DCA up at the right time to avoid early this year growth stock crash experience.
Below table an overview of this year (YTD XIRR) US stock returns.
The US Market current PE is relatively high now. Is this Covid time going to be different ?
As for YTD Performance for whole equity portfolio, the below chart speaks for itself. "The Golden Cross".
On the dividend side, Nov month expects to have quite an amount of dividend stocks to ex-dividend. With the reducing bank shares and some portfolio adjustments, I am not sure the theoretical annual dividend expectation will now be met and I am little lazy to count through individually. What I can do is to look for any potential dividend stocks to scope for Year 2022 preparation and this may help if they yet ex-dividend.
Cory
2021-1102
CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.
