Cory Diary : Performance Expectation

The Why

What started the article is when tripped in recent adventure into Centurion. The earning result was down obviously since YOY there is no earning spike from re-valuation. However, Operational wise there is marked increase in returns. You would thought this is bake into the market price but not exactly and it was down by 5% and returned back my gains on this counter. And this keeps me thinking on market sentiment and euphoria as new players aren't familiar with the stock started to drive the stock price higher.

Past Performance

For past years there have been constant seeking of stocks to focus on. On the process, we sometime fell and sometime portfolio strengthened. So far the portfolio has been working well for the past 3 years since year 2022.

Year 2025 is using end date 31st Dec 2025. So what this mean is if the value maintain till year end, 12.6% is what we will get. The 2 year and 3 Year compounded performance look great since last hit by year 2022 market down which is reflected in 5 Year compounded data.

Can the past few years performance be maintained ? That's not easy imo. So maybe is time to be more relax and less adventurous, and start holding the portfolio steady, and building up warchest for long term wealth.

Portfolio Numbers

and then we are back to portfolio management scenario building. Scenario 1 is what is current at 10k monthly expense. The Portfolio status Perpetual means divergence in another words Portfolio Value Growth > expenses inflation.

In scenario 2, we build in more buffer through higher inflation scenario, the portfolio valuation drops to able to sustain for 50 years with some drawdown. Still ok except we aren't sure the simulation has enough buffer for miscalculation or inheritance.

We build-on the portfolio scenario by increasing monthly expense to 11k which is the more realistic expenses to work on currently. Sametime increasing portfolio returns to 9.5%. This aren't fairytale numbers based on past 3 years performance. This is scenario 4.

The last Scenario 5, we continue to expand our expenses to 12k monthly and expects 11% annual returns. Portfolio can achieve divergence growth. What this tell me to lock-in further risk for the current portfolio which is achieving 14.9% compounded for past 3 years. Let's hold the ship steady instead.

When the market turns or mis-step, the portfolio can fall back to single digit growth if we aren't careful. While we cannot control macro environment, we can be less adventurous on looking things like alpha. 

A Centurion Experience to Share !

What's you think ?

Cory Diary

2025-0810

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.