Cory Diary : Cash Flow 2025-08

Have been cleaning up labels of the blog but I thought Cash Flow topic itself worth a label itself. The post gives a view on how well we managed our assets. A critical step that could help our financials.

A saving of 100k of 0.2% interest is only $200 if left idle whereas in fixed deposits of 3% is $3,000. That's 15 times return difference relatively in annual perspective.

Left is Asset, Right is Cash Flow resulted from it

Unless one go into private business which can be high risk, or property return in capital nature is significant which enlarge the asset base, the yield from our asset basically depends a lot from Equity which theoretically is a business as minority shareholders. The risk is much lesser. In dividend investing perspective, the cash flow from Equity out-size all the others asset class.

Another class of thought is to invest in equity for capital appreciation gains. In this line of thought, the cash flow if needed will have to come from sales of stock itself which probably needs to follow some draw down rules. US Market provides such sizeable gains in perspective but we run the risk of inheritance tax or market swing. Is also not truly a return of investment that can provide constant stream of income of invested capital into a business. Whether is sustainable or not from a business of reducing stake can affects one returns in the future due to uneven return from individual performance on a stock.

Since our plan for investment in US market is smaller for growth and not dividend, there won't be sales for cash flow. Instead when there is capital gain, it put some pressure on entire equity portfolio yield returns at this stage of the game. From the chart, the Equity portfolio still show remarkable outsize cash flow supports. If we are successful in growing our US portfolio, this may loop-side the chart on the asset base enlarged on the left, and negatively show lower proportion of Cash Flow from the Right Chart. Nevertheless, is a good thing to have definitely.

The Charts intent remains unchanged in the sense we still want to keep a look out for poor investment choices or risk management. In this update, I think we have reduced the saving account sufficiently into working capital and some buffers. Fixed Deposits are still sizeable which seems to hold their ground ok as necessary allocation for the time being.

SSB and T-Bills do not change much in absolute amount as net worth shrink or grow at this stage of retirement phase as we have already allocated what's need to be. There is no need to expand, or maybe even reduce if needed on T-bill side as one property loan get smaller over time. The net property segment provided needed diversification and income stability but any additional in this segment could reduce our future cash flow further.

Since yet 65, the CPF segment is a simulated figure. Will have to put some more thought around this segment of retirement support and adjust the numbers accordingly. To obscure the figure, insurance within this segment will also be looked into on future plan.

Cory Diary

2025-0823

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Mapping 2025 Segment Returns

Today a new interesting Chart to view portfolio diversification. As you can see below, the Equity portfolio has 4 main segments namely Banks, Reits, US Big Techs, and others.

Others as in the list currently in the portfolio. Do ignore the yield number in the table as is still in investigation stage.

As usual, the main driver of returns are the Banks. Macro play a good part of their profitability. The US Market which we have been trying to grow, has all the key positions in place except strong returns ... ... . This aren't surprising as they have rebounded mostly in year 2023 and 2024. There's some difficulty to grow through new funding quickly as we have missed the critical timing to add more.

The Reits in the portfolio are now mainly defensive play. Basically a hedge against macro turning bad but also securing some level of baseline dividends. This businesses are robust.

So this leave with the least allocation in Others category. Something we should develop imo but in-steps that we are comfortable with. The risks are much higher so ETF is one consideration however most ETFs have Bank or Reit inclusion. Something to further explore considering many popular stocks have already run-up.

Cory Diary

2025-0821

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Inflation Driven Earnings

Inflation-Driven Earnings: What Do I Mean?

Companies with a strong moat can raise prices as needed to counter various pressures, such as inflation, rising utility costs, manpower expenses, tariffs, taxes, or increased demand for their services due to supply and demand dynamics. Other factors may also apply. The essence of this moat is the ability to maintain or grow earnings, even during challenging economic times.

Who Are These Companies?

Ability to "hum along with inflation" and maintain stable earnings, even in changing economic conditions.

Examples include CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), and Big Tech firms. These entities provide essential or lifestyle services. For instance, mall REITs like CICT and FCT can adjust rents in line with inflation, ensuring stable earnings. While their profits may not be exorbitant, they are reliable, as these companies are closely monitored for operational stability. Their performance often aligns with a country’s development and reflects its social standards. These REITs aren’t the cheapest options—HDB shops or alternative local competitors often provide lower-cost alternatives nearby. However, when economic conditions worsen, consumer traffic may shift to more affordable options.

Big Tech companies cater to modern lifestyle needs beyond what malls offer. They typically hold a strong global niche, making it difficult for local governments to regulate them unless, like China, a country is large enough to block them and develop domestic alternatives. Big Tech firms demonstrate robust and consistent earnings growth, often surpassing local banks’ performance by significant margins. Their growth and stability enable them to weather negative foreign exchange impacts over the long term.

Interestingly, local banks also benefit indirectly from high interest rates used to manage inflation. While recent rate reductions may slightly lower their profits, this isn’t necessarily negative. A healthy and profitable local economy supports their lending activities, which form the core of their earnings. When a business is highly profitable, a slight reduction in margins to ensure long-term sustainability can be a smart strategy. Thus, excluding banks from a portfolio simply because their returns drop by 5% to 6% may not be wise, especially when alternatives may not offer comparable overall stability and growth.

For now, I’ll focus on these three segments—mall REITs, Big Tech, and local banks here. Their earnings can rise with inflation, yet they remain resilient even in low-inflation environments. Are these “Goldilocks” investments? Regardless, the stock market is currently experiencing one of its most polarizing bull runs.

Cory Diary

2025-0816

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Performance Expectation

The Why

What started the article is when tripped in recent adventure into Centurion. The earning result was down obviously since YOY there is no earning spike from re-valuation. However, Operational wise there is marked increase in returns. You would thought this is bake into the market price but not exactly and it was down by 5% and returned back my gains on this counter. And this keeps me thinking on market sentiment and euphoria as new players aren't familiar with the stock started to drive the stock price higher.

Past Performance

For past years there have been constant seeking of stocks to focus on. On the process, we sometime fell and sometime portfolio strengthened. So far the portfolio has been working well for the past 3 years since year 2022.

Year 2025 is using end date 31st Dec 2025. So what this mean is if the value maintain till year end, 12.6% is what we will get. The 2 year and 3 Year compounded performance look great since last hit by year 2022 market down which is reflected in 5 Year compounded data.

Can the past few years performance be maintained ? That's not easy imo. So maybe is time to be more relax and less adventurous, and start holding the portfolio steady, and building up warchest for long term wealth.

Portfolio Numbers

and then we are back to portfolio management scenario building. Scenario 1 is what is current at 10k monthly expense. The Portfolio status Perpetual means divergence in another words Portfolio Value Growth > expenses inflation.

In scenario 2, we build in more buffer through higher inflation scenario, the portfolio valuation drops to able to sustain for 50 years with some drawdown. Still ok except we aren't sure the simulation has enough buffer for miscalculation or inheritance.

We build-on the portfolio scenario by increasing monthly expense to 11k which is the more realistic expenses to work on currently. Sametime increasing portfolio returns to 9.5%. This aren't fairytale numbers based on past 3 years performance. This is scenario 4.

The last Scenario 5, we continue to expand our expenses to 12k monthly and expects 11% annual returns. Portfolio can achieve divergence growth. What this tell me to lock-in further risk for the current portfolio which is achieving 14.9% compounded for past 3 years. Let's hold the ship steady instead.

When the market turns or mis-step, the portfolio can fall back to single digit growth if we aren't careful. While we cannot control macro environment, we can be less adventurous on looking things like alpha. 

A Centurion Experience to Share !

What's you think ?

Cory Diary

2025-0810

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Bad Days

To start off, the portfolio was on XIRR 10.8% using 31 Dec 2025 End date about a week ago. Then we have a few news came in.

Mapletree Industrial Trust performs below expectation, this is despite the CEO gives a credible AGM which shareholders reacted positively. The only thing is that I do not think they have the DCs Hyperscale blood in them. Don't get me wrong, is still a very large and stable reit but long term assuming no macro tide, the reit seems on a long term slope. It still provide a strong stability to the portfolio but allocation wise we may need to tweet a little to prevent long term drag. Who knows she may perform surprise turnaround.

And then Fed decided to continue to delay the cut further. This make Trump angry. Personally, I am quite neutral. Fed mandate is 2% so we aren't there yet. There is stull some way to go. US economy is still strong and S&P500 still on the upper brink. Unemployment is not bad either. So he aren't wrong not to cut. BUT at this high rate, property loan is quite expensive. This will put a large dent on home owners and a cost on national debts and many SME businesses. 

I am not a fan that we should lower rate so as to pay investors lesser for treasury. This going to destroy the market mechanism. Strength of the USD should not be manipulated in a way to purposely lower investor returns who may vote with their pocket. It should be based on factors that are built-in to the system today which is inflation, employment and strength of the USD. Maybe more, I aren't Expert.

The decision has ramification on Singapore Reits. Another blow on recovery. And gain my decision to focus on Reits with moat that able to raise prices to combat cost of business.

Meta, Msft and Aapl report great results. Amazon too except there are other concerns. In net, US segment bring the portfolio value up another level. I like my peanut butter strategy on Big Techs because I do away with a lot of deep inside knowledge or industry to make investment decision. As long I hold long enough, they will ride through the waves. Well, this also mean market will find a reason for broad based sell down like yesterday for reason like employment number is not high enough. What a lousy reason but market has to find a reason to manage the recent run up.

Job Data

The Job Data is down significantly again give a wrong picture on how rates are to be managed. US data collection method needs to improve or maybe more integrity needed before the market totally ignore it in the future. Is better to have roughly good data than wild data which then got revised significantly months later. I would say they need a total revamp. Due to the revision, the US Market has been driven down now. I wonder what will Powell says now being data centric driven. Trump won't happy at all even though this help his cause for lower rate.

As of today XIRR 9.5%. The portfolio has more defensive position, lower bank allocation, higher big tech positions, more other category expansion, and some cash. Feeling ready for any crash or correction if it comes.

Interesting Time ! National Day Coming.

Cory Diary

2025-0804

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.