Cory Diary : Perils of Currency Wars

Noticed a dip in Singapore Dollar strength recently and took the opportunity to do some currency change. In fact i did one more yesterday. With the announcement of slower rate of strengthening, the first impression is we are on the same direction gradient path, just less steep. Relative to USD, we have been weakening for some time but not against currency like other Asian Currencies. Maybe is due more to the Euro$ weakening which S$ likely to have exposure too.

Here's my trades.

S$76 is the saving if i have done my first trade a day later. Don't get me wrong ! I am still happy considering a few weeks ago the rate was 24.13 and would have cost me NT$9126. That's a cool S$393 saving for a S$10K trade alone. That's also a free 4% income increment in S$ for almost one point shift in the exchange rate. I hope it will last forever. ( Sorry ! fellow country man. Less vacations for you )

The writing is on the wall with lower economic strength and should have sense that but i doubt many experts have the courage to say out loud. Couple with lower oil price driving out inflation, i should have anticipate the move but due to complexity of the world economics and abundance of things i need to think about is on hindsights i should. Who would have predict the NT$ (A Manufacturing Economy) whose direct competitors are likes of Japanese and Koreans Industries will strengthen against S$. The only obvious time i remember is during the 2008 GFC where NT$ tag closely to US$ and therefore strengthened against S$ relatively.

Will S$ weaken further ? Probably not, as the Taiwanese Gov will be pressured to weaken as well.

At the mean time ...

Cory

29th Jan 2015

Cory Diary : Portfolio Segments

Thanks to Tony Robbins new book called MONEY Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom, I get to know Ray Dalio. He has strong believe of 4 seasons portfolio that can weathers across the economic cycles at all times.

Here’s the asset allocation that Dalio came up with for this strategy:

30% Stocks
40% Long-Term Bonds and 15% Intermediate-Term Bonds
7.5% Gold and 7.5% Commodities

Here's mine.

Cory Portfolio

Structured : Preference Shares and Bonds.
Ray's bond  ~55% in total. If i include relative higher fixed returns from  RMB and AUD, probably about 25-30% range which is about half from it.

Commodity: This is a little tricky to gain exposure to it.Using commodity and energy related counters from my stock equities assuming their close relation to represent the segment, i am not far off in percent wise. This do reduce my equity portfolio volatility indirectly.

Four Seasons

Gold : Investment is virtual with reputable banks. Why single out gold from commodity can be easily referred to rationale on why National Banks hold Gold. In this segment i am pretty low (1.5%) compared to four season portfolio (7.5%).

Stocks : Align in percentage term after deducting commodities and energy related counters.

Cory Portfolio Re-Calibrated

So how do i measure up after re-calibrating my definition and removing other cash components ?


Conclusion

I can see that my portfolio has slightly higher volatility and less down side protection with fewer gold for higher chance of better returns.

Few questions in my minds. I would presume Ray based off US currency which i am not and secondly what if we have hyperinflation, will this strategy continues to work ?



Cory
24 Jan 2015

Cory Diary : Excited of 2015 Entry

A number of bets in 2014 are for 2015. There are still some tasks to follow through. If everything works as planned, good performance at least in the 1st half of 2015 should be expected. Why I say that ?

The Good News

Low Oil Price will be good for the Economy. From automobile to plastics. America continues it recovery path and interest rate will be low. More lands are released for Industrial Purposes. Populations expect to continue to increase. With Property and COE at relatively lower level, larger saving will be churned for equity investments.

The Bet

Went deep in a penny stock in 2014. Deep red in oil related. Added energy counter into my portfolio segment. Done an average down on one with calculated risk. Continue to bet on Retail Strengths on stocks riding our Singapore Success Story.

The Ugly

Will continue to monitor Property and Commodity trends. S-Chips will continue to be avoided no matter what as i do not want my 2015 to be ruined by the risk. No IPOs too. Continue to be sceptical with shipping counters.

The Plan

Portfolio needs increase in Financial segment representation. A stronger REITs present probably as well. Same time i like to drive more depths into existing vested counters without testing my nerve limits. Divest those with weaker fundamental and dividend returns that do not support capital protection.

S$40K Dividend target as anything much more is likely on higher risk investments. Well there's a catch ! After totalling historic yield is at best $37K. Though i can decrease my cash reserve but i feel it will takes stronger reason than achieving passiveness goal to dip into my war funds. By the way i did 96 trades last year and there still won't be a plan to monitor this year. Happy 2015 !

Cory

4th Jan '15

Cory Diary : Spending

One of the most darning task to me is to track my expenses. Tried a number of times to track it but just do not have the patience to continue despite being a fan of spreadsheet with the formulas everywhere to compute my investments and net worth almost instantaneously with currency fluctuation, equities, bank saving to pensions.I do spend little on myself materialistically. I do buy computers and gadgets occasionally. Some travels, books and gifts, relatively expensive restaurants, taxi, good massage and parental allowances...da da da de da.

Then it dawn on me that since i have high saving rate naturally, there is no need to track them at all. Silly me !

In 2014, my Net worth increase is more than my Annual Salary Income including AWS. Technically speaking i save every penny i earned. I did this before but what so special for 2014 is not due to my investment returns but Annual Variable Bonuses. To top it off i have a strong increment as well for a person planning to retire early....

You see, I have been putting in some amount of "Strategic Investment" into my work and was duly rewarded by my bosses for leading some alignment tasks and supporting transformation works. Though this pulled me off from focusing in my investments and some white hairs to show. However there's some synergy moving my portfolio to be more passive based which should works out well in years to come.

Privately though i do have a problem of over saving (by nature) which needs to be fixed in 2015. A good problem. :)











Cheers

Cory
2 Jan'15