Cory Diary : Annualized Returns since Year 2007 and Earlier

One of the interesting way to measure share investor performance is to use XIRR for multi-years computation. And this can be done easily summing up all the years of transactions that we usually keep annually.

If you are aware, in some measure, past year very old data may "cloud" years of recent performance. Some may practice 20 years cutoff as a compromise. For Cory Annualized Performance we can try as follows.

14 Years of Annualized Result

ANNUALIZED

Cory Annualized Performance ...

of last 14 Years will be 7% which starts from one year before 2008 GFC. This is captured in above chart. This returns pretty align with 3 Years and 5 Year benchmarks.

If we retain the recent years of data only,

Last 03 Years will be 7.1%

Last 05 Years will be 7.5% 

Last 07 Years will be 5.2% which reflects poor returns in Years of 2014, 2015 and 2016 periods

Last 10 Years will be 6.1%

GOALS

Therefore for Year 2021, the Goal is to be above 7.5 % Annual Return in order to improve in all the above levels. And therefore achieve consistent above 7% returns.

Stretch goal for Year 2021 will be 17.8% annual return to achieve 8% annualize of 15 years. That is how hard to move a needle of 1% on 14 years data. This will be a tough one to get for a dividend portfolio and may required some re-engineering on my part. I will need to put a thinking cap on this.

STI ETF

For STI, is -0.7% for 14 Years annualized data. STI Index has never recovered after Year 2009 rebounds. So if we are to include STI ETF dividends probably 3%-4%. We can try 3 Years and 5 Years data and I bet they will not be swimming well. This broadly defines the impact to Singapore Economy on Oils Sector follow by Covid-19.

I remember reading a challenge on re-investment of STI ETF every time dividends are distributed by STI ETF. What will the returns be like for the past 14 years then ?  To save time to do this. Allocated 11.5 cents dividend to each year and reinvest equally on 1st and last date of their respective year closing share price. The estimated answer I found is 3.2%.

Cory

2020-0105

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Long Term Investment Results

There are few tricks when come to investment and there aren't much magical about it so far from my experience. A lot is common sense and this comes with personal experience or read up of others. Here's my result so far. The drawdown has been low. Gains have been accumulating. Portfolio size has grown many times.

Here's pointers. I think Point 8 is most important.

1. Be Risk Adverse : Position Sizing of each stocks even if average down. One way is to buy another stock of similar traits and average down by industry or different segments. There are usually bad reasons for a high yield stock else is a gem. Again sizing is important.

2. Cut Loss : Never wait for breakeven. Say one invested in stock 50k and loss 25k. A rebound happens and now loss is reduced to 15k but still deep loss. Cut loss if fundamental has change for the worst. Of-course if one is confidence that we can sell with gain and not due to false hope, it could make sense.

3. Take profit/buildup in stages : A speculative stock I may take 50% off table first. In good fundamental stock maybe 15%. There is no hard rule on % range for each stage. Some stocks may never start selling till price point hits. Same for increasing the size in an equity that we do in stages over time. 

4. Use TA for guidance : For some human behavior reasons there are tendency for stocks to move to around resistance levels. Make use of them for entry or exit. Not always.

5. FA for selection : Something to fall back on when broad market is down. You want to bet on something that will be uptrend long term while short term there are fluctuations. Management integrity is important. If we sense or find there is suspicion of potential misconduct or legality, avoid.

6. Diversification : For risk adverse, this can reduce our gains but we also cover our down sides. We can have bonds to minimize portfolio fluctuations however make sure it does what you hope too and not increase your risk. Amount allocation depends on each.

7. Peace of minds : If any position cause me to keep thinking or have sleepless night. Act on it quickly. The actions may cost but in the long run we will have healthy minds and body. And this is needed to manage our portfolio and our life.

8. Treat your portfolio as a holding company : And each stock a company in your holding. Unlike real life owner running their own company, stock investors have the flexibility to adjust the percentage of each company to manage the risk and rewards. With this mindset, is really a business of managing your holding company.

The above best describe my investment behaviors.

Cheers

Cory

2020-0102

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Year 2020 Performance

Year 2020 has been quite tough. Both STI and Cory Performance have been underwater for most part of the year till early Nov when we see a significant breakout. The year is best remembered for Covid-19 freezing up the broad economy excepts for the Basic essentials, Medical Protective equipment  and technological companies.

For Dividend Players, depending on the specific segment we focus on, have range of impact to performing ones. Hospitality stocks are significantly hit. Retail Malls are bad. Industrial and DCs are doing well.

STI dives deep into negative territory and at it worst more than -30% in Mar'20. It then do a surprise leap from -25% to -10% range before settling at -11.7% for the year. Including dividend probably around -8% range.

Cory Portfolio do a further rise in a not-so-tandem to STI index and ended up with +5.4% beating the Index by 17% margin or around 13% if we include STI ETF dividends. Do keep in mind Cory portfolio has about 23% allocated to fixed return investment in low yield bonds. All this is relative. Compared to significant Tech rise, Bitcoins and medical stocks who benefitted from the Covid-19 situation, the Portfolio returns is mediocre.

The disappointment for this year is the dividend cap on the banks and the rebates by the retail malls which directly hits Cory Portfolio. While the banks have recovered in stock price, I still wish the cap to be removed. The malls have yet returned to their previous price level. It will takes some time and hopefully we get to see it in Year 2021.

What I did well is to clear hospitality stock before the march crash which have my down side protected. Investment in AGT bears fruit as well. What not so good is to clear all my STI ETF right before the Nov Climb which mute my recovery a little. However this put the portfolio in better yield position in the future.

Right now It appears the Portfolio has reached certain limits and for a breakthrough in Year 2021 the banks need to have the caps removed and Retail Reits will need a more robust business recovery. I may also consider exploring for more growths.

With limited risk mitigated option, Year 2020 investing in CPF is not a bad idea at this moment but we can only do so much as funds are basically locked away for long time. Do we have to explore more in Year 2021 ?

Happy New Year !

Cory

2021-0101

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.